Statistical model for earthquake economic loss estimation using GDP and DPI: a case study from Iran

2018 ◽  
Vol 53 (2) ◽  
pp. 583-598 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mahdi Moudi ◽  
Shiyu Yan ◽  
Bahador Bahramimianrood ◽  
Xiaoping Li ◽  
Liming Yao
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Model ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
Loss Estimation

scholarly journals Seismic Loss Estimation in Pre-1970 Residential RC Buildings: The Role of Infills and Services in Low–Mid-Rise Case Studies

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlo Del Gaudio ◽  
Maria Teresa De Risi ◽  
Santa Anna Scala ◽  
Gerardo Mario Verderame
Keyword(s):  
Case Studies ◽  
Pushover Analysis ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
Loss Estimation ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Rc Buildings ◽  
Loss Assessment ◽  
Ground Acceleration ◽  
Masonry Infills

The lessons learned after recent earthquakes have highlighted the key role played by infills and services in damage and loss of Reinforced Concrete (RC) buildings. Their influence in seismic performance and loss estimation of selected RC building case studies is thoroughly analyzed here. The case study selection aims to be representative of existing buildings built in Italy before 1970, and covers a different number of stories and design typologies. The seismic responses of the case-study buildings are numerically analyzed by means of non-linear static pushover analysis (PO) considering a lumped plasticity approach with a quadri-linear flexural response for beam/column elements (properly calibrated for RC elements reinforced with plain bars) and a tri-linear compressive-only axial response with diagonal concentric struts for infill panels (empirically derived from experimental data on hollow clay masonry walls). Economic loss estimation is carried out via a component-based methodology that relies on the main repairing activities and resultant costs required for the refurbishment of infills and services for different damage levels. Accordingly, a damage analysis is performed herein, given the intensity measure, based on a comparison between Interstory drift demand from PO analysis and drift-based fragility functions specific for masonry infills. Loss curves, relating the total building repair cost to peak ground acceleration (PGA), are presented and compared for the analyzed case study buildings to show their trends and quantify the incidence of infills and services with respect to the reconstruction cost. A comparison between these outcomes and those recently found in the literature emphasizes the robustness of the considered approach and the reliability of the hypotheses about damage and loss assessment.

scholarly journals A Statistical Model for Assessing Sample Size for Bacterial Colony Selection: A Case Study of Escherichia Coli and Avian Cellulitis

2000 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 118-125 ◽  
Author(s):  
Randall S. Singer ◽  
Wesley O. Johnson ◽  
Joan S. Jeffrey ◽  
Richard P. Chin ◽  
Tim E. Carpenter ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Escherichia Coli ◽  
Statistical Model ◽  
Clinical Sample ◽  
Agar Plate ◽  
Sample Sizes ◽  
Simple Task ◽  
Single Strain ◽  
Bacterial Colony ◽  
E Coli

A general problem for microbiologists is determining the number of phenotypically similar colonies growing on an agar plate that must be analyzed in order to be confident of identifying all of the different strains present in the sample. If a specified number of colonies is picked from a plate on which the number of unique strains of bacteria is unknown, assigning a probability of correctly identifying all of the strains present on the plate is not a simple task. With Escherichia coli of avian cellulitis origin as a case study, a statistical model was designed that would delineate sample sizes for efficient and consistent identification of all the strains of phenotypically similar bacteria in a clinical sample. This model enables the microbiologist to calculate the probability that all of the strains contained within the sample are correctly identified and to generate probability-based sample sizes for colony identification. The probability of cellulitis lesions containing a single strain of E. coli was 95.4%. If one E. coli strain is observed out of three colonies randomly selected from a future agar plate, the probability is 98.8% that only one strain is on the plate. These results are specific for this cellulitis E. coli scenario. For systems in which the number of bacterial strains per sample is variable, this model provides a quantitative means by which sample sizes can be determined.

scholarly journals Geomatic-Based Flood Loss Assessment and Its Application in an Eastern City of China

Water ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 126
Author(s):  
Youjie Jin ◽  
Jianyun Zhang ◽  
Na Liu ◽  
Chenxi Li ◽  
Guoqing Wang
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Resolution ◽  
Loss Rate ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Loss Assessment ◽  
Flood Loss ◽  
Flood Disasters

Flash-flood disasters pose a serious threat to lives and property. To meet the increasing demand for refined and rapid assessment on flood loss, this study exploits geomatic technology to integrate multi-source heterogeneous data and put forward the comprehensive risk index (CRI) calculation with the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE). Based on mathematical correlations between CRIs and actual losses of flood disasters in Weifang City, the direct economic loss rate (DELR) model and the agricultural economic loss rate (AELR) model were developed. The case study shows that the CRI system can accurately reflect the risk level of a flash-flood disaster. Both models are capable of simulating disaster impacts. The results are generally consistent with actual impacts. The quantified economic losses generated from simulation are close to actual losses. The spatial resolution is up to 100 × 100 m. This study provides a loss assessment method with high temporal and spatial resolution, which can quickly assess the loss of rainstorm and flood disasters. The method proposed in this paper, coupled with a case study, provides a reliable reference to loss assessment on flash floods caused disasters and will be helpful to the existing literature.

scholarly journals Will Climate Change Exacerbate the Economic Damage of Flood to Agricultural Production? A Case Study of Rice in Ha Tinh Province, Vietnam

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pham Quy Giang ◽  
Tran Trung Vy
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Agricultural Production ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Rice Production ◽  
Generalized Extreme Value Distribution ◽  
Economic Damage

In developing countries in general and in Vietnam in particular, flood induced economic loss of agriculture is a serious concern since the livelihood of large populations depends on agricultural production. The objective of this study was to examine if climate change would exacerbate flood damage to agricultural production with a case study of rice production in Huong Son District of Ha Tinh Province, North-central Vietnam. The study applied a modeling approach for the prediction. Extreme precipitation and its return periods were calculated by the Generalized Extreme Value distribution method using historical daily observations and output of the MRI-CGCM3 climate model. The projected extreme precipitation data was then employed as an input of the Mike Flood model for flood modeling. Finally, an integrated approach employing flood depth and duration and crop calendar was used for the prediction of potential economic loss of rice production. Results of the study show that in comparison with the baseline period, an increase of 49.14% in the intensity of extreme precipitation was expected, while the frequency would increase 5 times by 2050s. As a result, the seriousness of floods would increase under climate change impacts as they would become more intensified, deeper and longer, and consequently the economic loss of rice production would increase significantly. While the level of peak flow was projected to rise nearly 1 m, leading the area of rice inundated to increase by 12.61%, the value of damage would rise by over 21% by 2050s compared to the baseline period. The findings of the present study are useful for long-term agricultural and infrastructural planning in order to tackle potential flooding threats to agricultural production under climate change impacts.

scholarly journals Probabilistic Seismic Direct Loss Estimation for Ports, Case study: Pars Asaluyeh port

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 9-17
Author(s):  
Seyed Farshid Montazeri ◽  
Rouhollah Amirabadi ◽  
◽  
Keyword(s):  
Loss Estimation ◽  
Direct Loss

scholarly journals HUMAN-WILD MAMMAL CONFLICT IN A HUMAN DOMINATED MIDHILL LANDSCAPE: A CASE STUDY FROM PANCHASE AREA IN CHITWAN ANNAPURNA LANDSCAPE, NEPAL

2018 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 30-38
Author(s):  
Jagan Nath Adhikari ◽  
Bishnu Prasad Bhattarai ◽  
Tej Bahadur Thapa
Keyword(s):  
Group Discussion ◽  
Black Bear ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
Crop Raiding ◽  
Wild Mammal ◽  
Livestock Depredation ◽  
Wildlife Conflict ◽  
Main Crop ◽  
Human Wildlife Conflict

   Issues of human wildlife conflict (HWC) always challenges in conservation and management. Crop raiding, property damage, livestock depredation and human casualties are the most common forms of conflict. It was investigated the issues of human wild mammal conflict in and around the Panchase area in Chitwan Annapurna Landscape of Nepal from March 2017 to April 2018 using semi-structured questionnaires and focal group discussion. Wide spread human wildlife conflict was observed in Panchase area. Monkey, muntjac deer, porcupine and rabbit were the main crop raider that resulted in total economic loss of US$ 29.56 per household (HH). Overall economic loss by livestock depredation was estimated US$ 11254.54 (US$ 112.54/HH). Leopard contributed to the highest cases of livestock depredation. A total of five human attack cases were recorded including one fatal and four injuries. Himalayan black bear contributed to 80 % of the total attacks and 20 % by leopards. Present study focused on the issues and status of conflicts in the Panchase area, a representative of midhills and Chitwan Annapurana Landscape. This study suggests that future study related to mitigation and preventing methods should be conducted to minimize the issues of human wildlife conflicts.

In Silico Laboratory Experiments using Statistical Model Checking: A new model of the Palytoxin-Induced Pump Channel as Case Study

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-1
Author(s):  
Gabriel Domingo Vilallonga ◽  
Daniel Edgardo Riesco ◽  
Antonio-Carlos Guimaraes Almeida ◽  
Antonio Marcio Rodrigues ◽  
Sergio V. A. Campos
Keyword(s):  
Model Checking ◽  
Statistical Model ◽  
In Silico ◽  
Laboratory Experiments ◽  
Statistical Model Checking ◽  
New Model
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