Planning Against Long Term Water Scarcity: A Fuzzy Multicriteria Approach

2010 ◽  
Vol 25 (4) ◽  
pp. 1103-1129 ◽  
Author(s):  
George Tsakiris ◽  
Mike Spiliotis
Keyword(s):  
Water Scarcity

scholarly journals Human-wildlife conflicts and drought in the greater Calakmul Region, Mexico: implications for tapir conservation

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 539-563
Author(s):  
Jonathan Pérez-Flores ◽  
Sofía Mardero ◽  
Antonio López-Cen ◽  
Fernando M. Contreras-Moreno
Keyword(s):  
Community Participation ◽  
Water Scarcity ◽  
Wildlife Conservation ◽  
Annual Precipitation ◽  
Wildlife Species ◽  
Biological Corridor ◽  
Mesoamerican Biological Corridor ◽  
Alternative Water ◽  
Alternative Water Sources

Wildlife conservation efforts in the Mesoamerican Biological Corridor have focused on reducing negative interactions between humans and charismatic species. In recent years, droughts have increased in frequency and intensity in southeastern Mexico exacerbating conflicts with wildlife as they compete with humans for limited water. In the Yucatan Peninsula, Greater Calakmul Region of southeastern Mexico, Baird’s tapirs (Tapirus bairdii) are increasingly encroaching into local villages (ejidos) in search of water. This behavior could increase tapir mortality from hunting by Calakmul ejidos residents. We evaluated the trends between annual precipitation and tapir sightings near or within Calakmul ejidos from 2008 to 2019 to determine if the frequency of reported conflicts increased relative to decreased precipitation. In addition, with community participation, from 2016 to 2018 we monitored one of the ejidos where human-tapir conflicts were reported to be increasing to better describe the nature of conflicts. We did not find any relationship between the number of tapir sightings reported and annual precipitation. However, more tapirs were documented near ejidos in 2019, which is one of the years with the lowest rainfall (626.6 mm) in the last decade. Tapirs were reported as the most common wildlife species observed at waterholes (35.4%) and apiaries (32.1%). Our findings suggested that water scarcity has increased tapirs’ incursions into human-populated areas and subsequently the potential for human-tapir conflicts. We recommend that managers consider developing alternative water sources that could mitigate human-tapir conflicts and contribute to the long-term viability of other wildlife species that inhabit the Greater Calakmul Region of southeastern Mexico.

scholarly journals Stochastic System Dynamics Modelling for climate change water scarcity assessment on a reservoir in the Italian Alps

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefano Terzi ◽  
Janez Sušnik ◽  
Stefan Schneiderbauer ◽  
Silvia Torresan ◽  
Andrea Critto
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Water Scarcity ◽  
Stochastic System ◽  
Anthropogenic Activities ◽  
Short Term ◽  
System Dynamics Modelling ◽  
Dynamics Modelling

Abstract. Water management in mountain regions is facing multiple pressures due to climate change and anthropogenic activities. This is particularly relevant for mountain areas where water abundance in the past allowed for many anthropogenic activities, exposing them to future water scarcity. To better understand the processes involved in water scarcity impact, an innovative stochastic System Dynamics Modelling (SDM) explores water stored and turbined in the S.Giustina reservoir (Province of Trento, Italy). The integration of outputs from climate change simulations as well as from a hydrological model and statistical models into the SDM is a quick and effective tool to simulate past and future water availability and demand conditions. Short-term RCP4.5 simulations depict conditions of highest volume and outflow reductions starting in spring (−16.1 % and −44.7 % in May compared to the baseline). Long-term RCP8.5 simulations suggest conditions of volume and outflow reductions starting in summer and lasting until the end of the year. The number of events with stored water below the 30th and above the 80th quantiles suggest a general reduction both in terms of low and high volumes. These results call for the need to adapt to acute short-term water availability reductions in spring and summer while preparing for hydroelectric production reductions due to the chronic long-term trends affecting autumn and mid-winter. This study provides results and methodological insights for potential SDM upscaling across strategic mountain socio-economic sectors (e.g., hydropower, agriculture and tourism) to expand water scarcity assessments and prepare for future multi-risk conditions and impacts.

A multi-risk assessment of water scarcity in the south-eastern Italian Alps using a System Dynamics approach

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefano Terzi ◽  
Janez Sušnik ◽  
Sara Masia ◽  
Silvia Torresan ◽  
Stefan Schneiderbauer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Water Scarcity ◽  
Water Demand ◽  
Anthropogenic Activities ◽  
High Water ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Multiple Impacts ◽  
Dam Reservoirs

<p>Mountain regions are facing multiple impacts due to climate change and anthropogenic activities. Shifts in precipitation and temperature are affecting the available water influencing a variety of economic activities that still rely on large quantities of water (e.g. ski tourism, energy production and agriculture). The Alps are among those areas where recent events of decreased water availability triggered emerging water disputes and spread of economic impacts across multiple sectors and from upstream high water availability areas to downstream high water demand areas. In order to make our water management systems more resilient, there is a need to unravel the interplays and dependencies that can lead to multiple impacts across multiple sectors. However, current assessments dealing with climate change usually account for a mono sectoral and single risk perspective.</p><p>This study hence shows an integrative assessment of multi-risk processes across strategic sectors of the Alpine economy. System dynamics modelling (SDM) is applied as a powerful tool to evaluate the multiple impacts stemming from interactions and feedbacks among water-food-energy economic sectors of the Noce river catchment in the Province of Trento (Italy).</p><p>The SDM developed for the Noce catchment combined outputs from physically based models to evaluate water availability and statistical assessments for water demands from three main sectors: (i) apple orchards cultivation, (ii) water releases from large dam reservoirs for hydropower production and (iii) domestic and seasonal tourism activities.</p><p>Hydrological results have been validated on historical time series (i.e. 2009-2017) and projected in the future considering RCP 4.5 and 8.5 climate change scenarios for 2021-2050 medium term and 2041-2070 long term. Results show a precipitation decrease affecting river streamflow with consequences on water stored and turbined in all dam reservoirs of the Noce catchment, especially for long-term climate change scenarios. Moreover, temperature scenarios will increase the amount of water used for agricultural irrigation from upstream to downstream. Nevertheless, decreasing population projections will have a beneficial reduction of water demand from residents, counterbalancing the increasing demand from the other sectors.</p><p>Finally, the integrated SDM fostered discussions in the Noce catchment on interplays between climate change and anthropogenic activities to tackle climate-related water scarcity.</p>

scholarly journals Acute Water-Scarcity Monitoring for Africa

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. 1968 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amy McNally ◽  
Kristine Verdin ◽  
Laura Harrison ◽  
Augusto Getirana ◽  
Jossy Jacob ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Monitoring System ◽  
Water Scarcity ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Population Data ◽  
Water Insecurity ◽  
Hydrologic Change ◽  
Increasing Demand ◽  
Annual Water ◽  
Land Data Assimilation System

Acute and chronic water scarcity impacts four billion people, a number likely to climb with population growth and increasing demand for food and energy production. Chronic water insecurity and long-term trends are well studied at the global and regional level; however, there have not been adequate systems in place for routinely monitoring acute water scarcity. To address this gap, we developed a monthly monitoring system that computes annual water availability per capita based on hydrologic data from the Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS) and gridded population data from WorldPop. The monitoring system yields maps of acute water scarcity using monthly Falkenmark classifications and departures from the long-term mean classification. These maps are designed to serve FEWS NET monitoring objectives; however, the underlying data are publicly available and can support research on the roles of population and hydrologic change on water scarcity at sub-annual and sub-national scales.

Water scarcity will boost Turkey-Syria-Iraq tensions

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Scarcity ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Internal Conflict ◽  
Euphrates River ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Scarce Water ◽  
Southern Iraq ◽  
Regional Water

Significance Large-scale water capture in Turkish dams upstream has caused long-term shortages elsewhere in the Tigris and Euphrates river basin, notably eastern Syria and southern Iraq. Competition for water resources intersects with existing ethno-religious tensions across the riparian countries. Impacts The political fragility of the Syrian and Iraqi states will be exacerbated by rising conflict over scarce water resources. Iran may seek to intervene on behalf of Shia Arabs in the Iraqi south. Turkey may experience future internal conflict with the Kurdish minority on whose land new dams have been constructed. Regional water scarcity could drive further migration to Europe.

scholarly journals Significant Baseflow Reduction in the Sao Francisco River Basin

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 2
Author(s):  
Murilo Cesar Lucas ◽  
Natalya Kublik ◽  
Dulce B. B. Rodrigues ◽  
Antonio A. Meira Neto ◽  
André Almagro ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Water Scarcity ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Sao Francisco River ◽  
São Francisco River ◽  
Terrestrial Water ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Storage Change

Water scarcity is a key challenge to global development. In Brazil, the Sao Francisco River Basin (SFB) has experienced water scarcity problems because of decreasing streamflow and increasing demands from multiple sectors. However, the drivers of decreased streamflow, particularly the potential role of the surface-groundwater interaction, have not yet been investigated. Here, we assess long-term trends in the streamflow and baseflow of the SFB during 1980–2015 and constrain the most likely drivers of observed decreases through a trend analysis of precipitation (P), evapotranspiration (ET), and terrestrial water storage change (TWS). We found that, on average, over 86% of the observed decrease in streamflow can be attributed to a significant decreasing baseflow trend along the SFR, with a spatial agreement between the decreased baseflow, increased ET, and irrigated agricultural land in the Middle SFB. We also noted a decreasing trend in TWS across the SFB exceeding –20 mm year−1. Overall, our findings indicate that decreasing groundwater contributions (i.e., baseflow) are providing the observed reduction in the total SFR flow. A lack of significant P trends and the strong TWS depletion indicate that a P variability only has likely not caused the observed baseflow reduction, in mainly the Middle and Sub-middle SFB. Therefore, groundwater and surface withdrawals may likely be a driver of baseflow reduction in some regions of the SFB.

scholarly journals Crop Vulnerability to Weather and Climate Risk: Analysis of Interacting Systems and Adaptation Efficacy for Sustainable Crop Production

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (23) ◽  
pp. 6619 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emile H. Elias ◽  
Robert Flynn ◽  
Omololu John Idowu ◽  
Julian Reyes ◽  
Soumaila Sanogo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
United States ◽  
Water Scarcity ◽  
Agricultural Production ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Production Environment ◽  
Southwestern United States ◽  
Management Options ◽  
Near Term

Climate change is increasing mean and extreme temperatures in the Southwestern United States, leading to a suite of changes affecting agricultural production. These include changes in water, soils, pathogens, weeds, and pests comprising the production environment. The aim of this synthesis is to describe the anticipated leading agricultural pressures and adaptive responses, many of which are near-term actions with longer-term consequences. In the semiarid Southwestern United States, climate change is expected to increase water scarcity. Surface water shortage is the leading reason for recent diminished crop yields in the Southwest. Drought and lack of water represent the leading regional weather-related cause of crop loss from 1989 to 2017. Thus, water scarcity has been and will continue to be a critical factor leading to regional crop vulnerability. Soils, pathogens, weeds, and insects are components of the agricultural production environment and are directly influenced by near-term weather and long-term climate conditions. Field crops, vegetable crops, and perennial crops have unique production requirements and diverse management options, many already used in farm management, to cope with production environment changes to build climate resilience. Farmers and ranchers continuously respond to changing conditions on a near-term basis. Long-term planning and novel adaptation measures implemented may now build nimble and responsive systems and communities able to cope with future conditions. While decision-support tools and resources are providing increasingly sophisticated approaches to cope with production in the 21st century, we strive to keep pace with the cascading barrage of inter-connected agricultural challenges.

scholarly journals Assessing The Macroeconomic Effects Of Water Scarcity In South Africa Using A Water-CGE Model

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anne Briand ◽  
Arnaud Reynaud ◽  
Franck Viroleau ◽  
Vasileos Markantonis ◽  
Giuliana Branciforti
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
South African ◽  
Water Scarcity ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Cge Model ◽  
Policy Simulations ◽  
Negative Impacts ◽  
Long Term Impact

Abstract We develop a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to assess the macroeconomic impacts of water scarcity and water (in)security in South Africa. The water-CGE model which includes a detailed representation of water flows (surface water, groundwater, wastewater, and seawater) has been calibrated with an updated social accounting matrix enabling to conduct policy simulations up to 2030. We show that water scarcity will have an impact on the South African economy. With an increase of water scarcity by 17%, the CGE model predicts a decrease of South African GDP by -0.34% in 2030. The long-term impact of water scarcity varies from one sector to another, with the most negatively impacted sectors being those related to water (loss of GDP up to -2.48%). Due to the increase of water scarcity, the unemployment rate is expected to be 0.1% higher in 2020 which represents a loss of 18,000 jobs compared to the baseline year (2013). The 17% increase in water scarcity is also expected to have a negative impact on household welfare: by 2030, household consumption may decrease by -0.26%. Some policies can mitigate the negative impacts of water scarcity, the most promising one being to promote water saving.

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