scholarly journals Projecting population distribution under depopulation conditions in Japan: scenario analysis for future socio-ecological systems

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 295-311 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keiko Hori ◽  
Osamu Saito ◽  
Shizuka Hashimoto ◽  
Takanori Matsui ◽  
Rumana Akter ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Urban Areas ◽  
Population Distribution ◽  
Natural Capital ◽  
Simulated Population ◽  
Projection Model ◽  
Distribution Maps ◽  
Scenario Analyses ◽  
Population Loss ◽  
Density Population ◽  
Future Population

AbstractThis study develops a projection model of future population distribution on the basis of Japan’s current depopulation trend and applies this model to scenario analyses that assume population compactification and dispersion. The model enables a description of population migration at two levels. First, municipal populations are projected using the cohort-component method, and second, the spatial distribution of populations within municipalities is projected at a 500 m grid resolution with the use of the gravity model. Based on the Japanese depopulation context and the country’s National Spatial Strategy, the compact scenario predicts the formation of medium-scale regional urban areas (population centers located across Japan) and the concentration of people on high-density population areas within municipalities. Meanwhile, the dispersed scenario predicts the formation of more but smaller regional urban areas and the dispersion of the population to low-density areas. The simulated population distribution for 2050 reveals spatial change in population density and age structure, as well as an abundance of areas that were inhabited in 2015 but will be zero population areas by 2050. Overlay analysis of future land use maps and the simulated population distribution maps can contribute toward identifying areas where natural capital such as farmland and forest plantation should be managed but where there will be significant population loss by 2050.

scholarly journals Modeling Spatiotemporal Population Changes by Integrating DMSP-OLS and NPP-VIIRS Nighttime Light Data in Chongqing, China

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 284
Author(s):  
Dan Lu ◽  
Yahui Wang ◽  
Qingyuan Yang ◽  
Kangchuan Su ◽  
Haozhe Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
Relative Error ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Population Distribution ◽  
Spatial Optimization ◽  
Distribution Data ◽  
Mountainous Areas ◽  
Mean Relative Error ◽  
Nighttime Light

The sustained growth of non-farm wages has led to large-scale migration of rural population to cities in China, especially in mountainous areas. It is of great significance to study the spatial and temporal pattern of population migration mentioned above for guiding population spatial optimization and the effective supply of public services in the mountainous areas. Here, we determined the spatiotemporal evolution of population in the Chongqing municipality of China from 2000–2018 by employing multi-period spatial distribution data, including nighttime light (NTL) data from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program’s Operational Linescan System (DMSP-OLS) and the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (NPP-VIIRS). There was a power function relationship between the two datasets at the pixel scale, with a mean relative error of NTL integration of 8.19%, 4.78% less than achieved by a previous study at the provincial scale. The spatial simulations of population distribution achieved a mean relative error of 26.98%, improved the simulation accuracy for mountainous population by nearly 20% and confirmed the feasibility of this method in Chongqing. During the study period, the spatial distribution of Chongqing’s population has increased in the west and decreased in the east, while also increased in low-altitude areas and decreased in medium-high altitude areas. Population agglomeration was common in all of districts and counties and the population density of central urban areas and its surrounding areas significantly increased, while that of non-urban areas such as northeast Chongqing significantly decreased.

Exposure Analysis Using the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Maps for Japan

2013 ◽  
Vol 8 (5) ◽  
pp. 861-868 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nobuoto Nojima ◽  
◽  
Satoshi Fujikawa ◽  
Yutaka Ishikawa ◽  
Toshihiko Okumura ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Population Distribution ◽  
Site Amplification ◽  
Disaster Mitigation ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard ◽  
Hazard Maps ◽  
Distribution Maps ◽  
Seismic Hazard Maps ◽  
Exposure Analysis

With the aim of better understanding and more effective utilization of probabilistic seismic hazard maps in Japan, exposure analysis has been carried out by combining hazard maps with population distribution maps. Approximately 80% of the population of Japan is exposed to a relatively high seismic hazard, i.e., a 3% probability of exceeding JMAseismic intensity 6 lower within 30 years. In highly populated areas, specifically in major metropolitan areas, seismic hazard tends to relatively high because of the site amplification effects of holocene deposits. In implementing earthquake disaster mitigation measures, it is important to consider the overlapping effect of seismic hazard and demographic distributions.

DEALING WITH CHINA'S FUTURE POPULATION DECLINE: A PROPOSAL FOR REPLACING LOW BIRTH RATES WITH SUSTAINABLE RATES

2009 ◽  
Vol 41 (5) ◽  
pp. 693-696 ◽  
Author(s):  
SHIXIONG CAO ◽  
XIUQING WANG
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Family Planning ◽  
Elderly Population ◽  
Population Distribution ◽  
Population Decline ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Birth Rates ◽  
Planning Policy ◽  
The Family ◽  
Future Population

SummaryDecreasing population levels due to declining birth rates are becoming a potentially serious social problem in developed and rapidly developing countries. China urgently needed to reduce birth rates so that its population would decline to a sustainable level, and the family planning policy designed to achieve this goal has largely succeeded. However, continuing to pursue this policy is leading to serious, unanticipated problems such as a shift in the country's population distribution towards the elderly and increasing difficulty supporting that elderly population. Social and political changes that promoted low birth rates and the lack of effective policies to encourage higher birth rates suggest that mitigating the consequences of the predicted population decline will depend on a revised approach based on achieving sustainable birth rates.

Weak Ties, Labor Migration, and Environmental Impacts

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-24 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaodong Chen ◽  
Kenneth A. Frank ◽  
Thomas Dietz ◽  
Jianguo Liu
Keyword(s):  
Social Capital ◽  
Labor Migration ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Nature Reserve ◽  
Social Ties ◽  
Natural Capital ◽  
Weak Ties ◽  
Global Sustainability ◽  
Sustainability Theory ◽  
Human And Social Capital

Debate about the substitutability of manufactured, natural, human, and social capital is at the heart of sustainability theory. Sociology can contribute to this debate by examining the processes and mechanisms by which one form of capital is substituted for another. The authors examine the substitution among different forms of capitals at China’s Wolong Nature Reserve, where the consumption of an important aspect of natural capital, fuelwood, has serious consequences for the environment. The authors found that weak social ties to people in urban settings significantly increased rural–urban labor migration. Following the chain of capital substitutions, labor migration then significantly reduced fuelwood consumption. These findings indicate policies that facilitate the development of social capital between people in Wolong and people in urban areas could substantially reduce the consumption of local natural capital. Mechanisms by which different forms of capital are substituted for one another should be considered in improving global sustainability.

scholarly journals The Geography of Social Media Data in Urban Areas: Representativeness and Complementarity

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 747
Author(s):  
Álvaro Bernabeu-Bautista ◽  
Leticia Serrano-Estrada ◽  
V. Raul Perez-Sanchez ◽  
Pablo Martí
Keyword(s):  
Social Network ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Population Distribution ◽  
Land Value ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Social Network Data ◽  
Location Patterns ◽  
Age Range ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
The City

This research sheds light on the relationship between the presence of location-based social network (LBSN) data and other economic and demographic variables in the city of Valencia (Spain). For that purpose, a comparison is made between location patterns of geolocated data from various social networks (i.e., Google Places, Foursquare, Twitter, Airbnb and Idealista) and statistical information such as land value, average gross income, and population distribution by age range. The main findings show that there is no direct relationship between land value or age of registered population and the amount of social network data generated in a given area. However, a noteworthy coincidence was observed between Google Places data-clustering patterns, which represent the offer of economic activities, and the spatial concentration of the other LBSNs analyzed, suggesting that data from these sources are mostly generated in areas with a high density of economic activities.

scholarly journals Profil Distribusi Apotek di Kabupaten Banyumas berdasarkan Sistem Informasi Geografi dan Korelasinya dengan Jumlah Kunjungan dan Resep Tahun 2019

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 142-155
Author(s):  
Abdul Manan ◽  
Pri Iswati Utami ◽  
Agus Siswanto
Keyword(s):  
Information System ◽  
Distribution Pattern ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Service Providers ◽  
Average Distance ◽  
Gis Analysis ◽  
Healthcare Facilities ◽  
Central Java ◽  
Arc Gis ◽  
Density Population

The distribution of pharmacies in Indonesia is still becoming a problem. Pharmacies are mostly available around healthcare facilities such as hospitals, service providers, trade centers, transportation facilities, and main roads. The study aims to describe the distribution profile of pharmacies based on Geographic Information System (GIS) analysis and to study the relation between pharmacy distribution profiles with the number of consumer visits and prescriptions. The study is conducted in 27 sub-districts in Banyumas Regency, Central Java using Arc Gis 3.10.2 Software. Pharmacy profile, the number of consumer visits, and prescriptions at the pharmacy are obtained by distributing research questionnaires to pharmacists. The results showed that the distribution of pharmacies in the Banyumas Regency was still dominant in urban areas, which reached 55%. The average distance of pharmacies was 2.34 km. The research results on the distribution pattern of pharmacies in 27 sub-districts showed that in 3 districts (11.1%) were grouped in certain areas, in 24 other districts (88.9%), the pharmacies' distribution had a spread distribution pattern. The conclusion of the research that the distribution of pharmacies in the Banyumas Regency based on GIS visualization was still dominant in urban areas and especially in sub-districts around the capital of Banyumas Regency, Purwokerto. Based on the study, there was a relation between the average distance of pharmacies and the number of healthcare facilities on consumer visits. There was a relation between pharmacy density, population density, and the number of healthcare facilities with the number of prescriptions.

scholarly journals Non-Inverse J - shaped population distribution: Peculiarity of Red Sanders forests

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 11356
Author(s):  
S. Suresh Ramanan ◽  
T. K. Kunhamu
Keyword(s):  
Population Structure ◽  
Andhra Pradesh ◽  
Population Distribution ◽  
Natural Habitat ◽  
Wildlife Sanctuary ◽  
Pterocarpus Santalinus ◽  
Red Sanders ◽  
Density Population

Response to the published article "A study on the density, population structure and regeneration of Red Sanders (Pterocarpus santalinus) (Fabales: Fabaceae) in a protected natural habitat of Sri Lankamalleswara Wildlife Sanctuary, Andhra Pradesh, India" by Ankalaiah et al. 2017. 

scholarly journals Assessment of the Sustainable Utilization Level of Water Resources in the Wuhan Metropolitan Area Based on a Three-Dimensional Water Ecological Footprint Model

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (24) ◽  
pp. 3505
Author(s):  
Dongzhe Liang ◽  
Hongwei Lu ◽  
Liyang Feng ◽  
Lihua Qiu ◽  
Li He
Keyword(s):  
Water Resources ◽  
Metropolitan Area ◽  
Capital Stock ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Ecological Footprint ◽  
Natural Capital ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Sustainable Utilization ◽  
Wuhan Metropolitan Area ◽  
Water Resources Utilization

The shortage and overexploitation of water resources restrict the sustainable development of metropolitan areas. To evaluate the sustainable utilization level of water resources, we identified the occupancy of natural capital stock and the consumption of natural capital flow by water resources consumption and analyzed the factors influencing water resources consumption in metropolitan area development. We took the Wuhan Metropolitan Area in China from 2010 to 2019 as the research object and introduced footprint depth and size, the water ecological footprint (WEF) model was expanded into the three-dimensional WEF model. Based on this model, an evaluation system for the sustainable utilization level of water resources was constructed with five indices—water ecological deficit, water ecological surplus, water ecological pressure, WEF depth, and WEF size. Finally, the driving factors of WEF change were analyzed using the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index. The evaluation of the sustainable utilization level of water resources showed that the Wuhan Metropolitan Area as a whole experienced water ecological surplus from 2010 to 2019, but there were different degrees of water ecological deficit in its inner urban areas, and the most serious cumulative deficit was 5.02 ha/cap in Ezhou. In 2011 and 2019, the sustainable utilization level of water resources in the metropolitan area reached a relatively unsustainable state. Xianning was the urban area with the most sustainable utilization level of water resources. During the study period, the metropolitan area did not occupy the natural capital stock of water resources, and the natural capital flow of water resources in the inner urban areas could meet the demand of the current consumption of the region in 2010 and 2016. The analysis of the driving factors of WEF change showed that economic development effect and population pressure effect had a positive driving effect on WEF change, while WEF intensity effect and water resources carrying capacity effect had the opposite effect. Finally, according to the research results, it can be seen that improving the efficiency of water resources utilization, protecting the natural capital stock of water resources, realizing differentiated regional development through the market economy and developing water policy can be helpful to improve the level of sustainable water resources utilization.

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