Assessment of the potential impacts of climate change on the hydrology at catchment scale: modelling approach including prediction of future drought events using drought indices

Abstract In this study, the Distributed Catchment-Scale Model, DiCaSM, was used to study the impact of climate change on the hydrology of the Eden catchment, north east of Scotland. As a first step, the model was successfully calibrated and validated for a 42 years period. The DiCaSM model was then used to study the impact of climate change on the water availability. Data from the UKCP09 Climate change scenarios for the 2010–2039, 2040–2069 and 2070–2099 periods, considering three gas emission scenarios (low, medium and high), were applied. The results indicated that the greatest decrease in streamflow and groundwater recharge was projected to happen under the high emission scenarios towards the end of the century, i.e. between 2070 and 2099. This would mainly be due to the summers becoming drier. Meanwhile, the projected increase in winter precipitation did not contribute much towards groundwater recharge due the projected increases in evapotranspiration and soil moisture deficit. The following drought indices were calculated and were found to be effective in predicting different types of droughts: the Standardized Precipitation Index, SPI, and the Standardized Precipitation Evaporation Index, SPEI, the Reconnaissance Drought Index, RDI, the modified adjusted RDI, the Soil Moisture Deficit, SMD and the Wetness Index, WI. The findings of the study have broader implications in water resources management considering the future changes in climate.

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Drought Risk under Climate and Land Use Changes: Implication to Water Resource Availability at Catchment Scale

Water ◽

10.3390/w11091790 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 11 (9) ◽

pp. 1790 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Muhammad Afzal ◽

Ragab Ragab

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Water Resources ◽

Groundwater Recharge ◽

Land Use Changes ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Emission Scenarios ◽

Catchment Scale ◽

High Emission ◽

The Impact

Although the climate change projections are produced by global models, studying the impact of climatic change on water resources is commonly investigated at catchment scale where the measurements are taken, and water management decisions are made. For this study, the Frome catchment in the UK was investigated as an example of midland England. The DiCaSM model was applied using the UKCP09 future climate change scenarios. The climate projections indicate that the greatest decrease in groundwater recharge and streamflow was projected under high emission scenarios in the 2080s. Under the medium and high emission scenarios, model results revealed that the frequency and severity of drought events would be the highest. The drought indices, the Reconnaissance Drought Index, RDI, Soil Moisture Deficit, SMD and Wetness Index, WI, predicted an increase in the severity of future drought events under the high emission scenarios. Increasing broadleaf forest area would decrease streamflow and groundwater recharge. Urban expansion could increase surface runoff. Decreasing winter barley and grass and increasing oil seed rape, would increase SMD and slightly decrease river flow. Findings of this study are helpful in the planning and management of the water resources considering the impact of climate and land use changes on variability in the availability of surface and groundwater resources.

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Evaluation of Climate Change Impact on Groundwater Recharge in Groundwater Regions in Taiwan

Water ◽

10.3390/w13091153 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (9) ◽

pp. 1153

Author(s):

Shih-Jung Wang ◽

Cheng-Haw Lee ◽

Chen-Feng Yeh ◽

Yong Fern Choo ◽

Hung-Wei Tseng

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Groundwater Recharge ◽

Climate Change Impact ◽

Groundwater Resources ◽

Regression Equations ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

Groundwater Systems ◽

Change Impact ◽

The Impact ◽

Assessment Results

Climate change can directly or indirectly influence groundwater resources. The mechanisms of this influence are complex and not easily quantified. Understanding the effect of climate change on groundwater systems can help governments adopt suitable strategies for water resources. The baseflow concept can be used to relate climate conditions to groundwater systems for assessing the climate change impact on groundwater resources. This study applies the stable baseflow concept to the estimation of the groundwater recharge in ten groundwater regions in Taiwan, under historical and climate scenario conditions. The recharge rates at the main river gauge stations in the groundwater regions were assessed using historical data. Regression equations between rainfall and groundwater recharge quantities were developed for the ten groundwater regions. The assessment results can be used for recharge evaluation in Taiwan. The climate change estimation results show that climate change would increase groundwater recharge by 32.6% or decrease it by 28.9% on average under the climate scenarios, with respect to the baseline quantity in Taiwan. The impact of climate change on groundwater systems may be positive. This study proposes a method for assessing the impact of climate change on groundwater systems. The assessment results provide important information for strategy development in groundwater resources management.

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Impact of climate change on hydropower production in the Upper Danube

10.5194/ems2021-493 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Ignacio Martin Santos ◽

Mathew Herrnegger ◽

Hubert Holzmann

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Spatial Resolution ◽

Transfer Functions ◽

Danube River ◽

Emission Scenarios ◽

Hydropower Generation ◽

Climate Change Projections ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

The Future ◽

The Impact

In the last two decades, different climate downscaling initiatives provided climate scenarios for Europe. The most recent initiative, CORDEX, provides Regional Climate Model (RCM) data for Europe with a spatial resolution of 12.5 km, while the previous initiative, ENSEMBLES, had a spatial resolution of 25 km. They are based on different emission scenarios, Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) respectively.A study carried out by Stanzel et al. (2018) explored the hydrological impact and discharge projections for the Danube basin upstream of Vienna when using either CORDEX and ENSEMBLES data. This basin covers an area of 101.810km2 with a mean annual discharge of 1923 m3/s at the basin outlet. The basin is dominated by the Alps, large gradients and is characterized by high annual precipitations sums which provides valuable water resources available along the basin. Hydropower therefore plays an important role and accounts for more than half of the installed power generating capacity for this area. The estimation of hydropower generation under climate change is an important task for planning the future electricity supply, also considering the on-going EU efforts and the &#8220;Green Deal&#8221; initiative.Taking as input the results from Stanzel et al. (2018), we use transfer functions derived from historical discharge and hydropower generation data, to estimate potential changes for the future. The impact of climate change projections of ENSEMBLE and CORDEX in respect to hydropower generation for each basin within the study area is determined. In addition, an assessment of the impact on basins dominated by runoff river plants versus basins dominated by storage plants is considered.The good correlation between discharge and hydropower generation found in the historical data suggests that discharge projection characteristics directly affect the future expected hydropower generation. Large uncertainties exist and stem from the ensembles of climate runs, but also from the potential operation modes of the (storage) hydropower plants in the future.&#160;&#160;References:Stanzel, P., Kling, H., 2018. From ENSEMBLES to CORDEX: Evolving climate change projections for Upper Danube River flow. J. Hydrol. 563, 987&#8211;999. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.06.057&#160;

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An assessment of the impact of climate change on evapotranspiration, groundwater recharge, and low-flow conditions in a mesoscale catchment in Northeast Germany

Journal of Plant Nutrition and Soil Science ◽

10.1002/jpln.200800271 ◽

2009 ◽

Vol 172 (6) ◽

pp. 737-744 ◽

Cited By ~ 14

Author(s):

Martin Wegehenkel ◽

Kurt-Christian Kersebaum

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Groundwater Recharge ◽

Low Flow ◽

Flow Conditions ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

The Impact

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Investigating the Impact of Climate Change on Groundwater Recharge Using a High Precision Meteo Lysimeter in a Dune Belt of the Doñana National Park

Environmental Earth Sciences - Groundwater and Global Change in the Western Mediterranean Area ◽

10.1007/978-3-319-69356-9_26 ◽

2017 ◽

pp. 227-234

Author(s):

L. Molano-Leno ◽

C. Kohfahl ◽

D. J. Martínez Suárez ◽

F. Ruiz Bermudo ◽

A. N. Martínez Sánchez de la Nieta ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Groundwater Recharge ◽

High Precision ◽

National Park ◽

Doñana National Park ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

The Impact

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Spatio-temporal impact of climate change on the groundwater system

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ◽

10.5194/hess-16-1517-2012 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 16 (5) ◽

pp. 1517-1531 ◽

Cited By ~ 38

Author(s):

J. Dams ◽

E. Salvadore ◽

T. Van Daele ◽

V. Ntegeka ◽

P. Willems ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Groundwater Recharge ◽

Groundwater Level ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Close Monitoring ◽

Reference Period ◽

Groundwater System ◽

Groundwater Levels ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

The Impact

Abstract. Given the importance of groundwater for food production and drinking water supply, but also for the survival of groundwater dependent terrestrial ecosystems (GWDTEs) it is essential to assess the impact of climate change on this freshwater resource. In this paper we study with high temporal and spatial resolution the impact of 28 climate change scenarios on the groundwater system of a lowland catchment in Belgium. Our results show for the scenario period 2070–2101 compared with the reference period 1960–1991, a change in annual groundwater recharge between −20% and +7%. On average annual groundwater recharge decreases 7%. In most scenarios the recharge increases during winter but decreases during summer. The altered recharge patterns cause the groundwater level to decrease significantly from September to January. On average the groundwater level decreases about 7 cm with a standard deviation between the scenarios of 5 cm. Groundwater levels in interfluves and upstream areas are more sensitive to climate change than groundwater levels in the river valley. Groundwater discharge to GWDTEs is expected to decrease during late summer and autumn as much as 10%, though the discharge remains at reference-period level during winter and early spring. As GWDTEs are strongly influenced by temporal dynamics of the groundwater system, close monitoring of groundwater and implementation of adaptive management measures are required to prevent ecological loss.

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