scholarly journals An anatomy of the Spanish current account adjustment: the role of permanent and transitory factors

SERIEs ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 501-529
Author(s):  
Mar Delgado-Téllez ◽  
Enrique Moral-Benito ◽  
Francesca Viani

AbstractThis paper investigates how much of the current account adjustment after the global financial crisis in Spain can be explained by cyclical factors. For this purpose, we extend the IMF’s external balance assessment methodology to allow for country-specific slopes and intercepts. The good fit of these cross-country regressions implies negligible residuals for most countries, and, as a result, the positive analysis of current account decompositions provides a more informative assessment of the external balance drivers. According to our findings, around 60% of the 11 pp. adjustment of the Spanish external imbalance over the years 2008–2015 can be explained by transitory factors such as the output gap, the oil balance, and the financial cycle—a share that diminished down to 50% during the more recent recovery period. The remaining adjustment of the Spanish external balance is explained by factors such as the cyclically adjusted fiscal consolidation, population ageing, lower growth expectations, or competitiveness gains, which can all be considered as more permanent phenomena.

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 356
Author(s):  
Carlos A. Silva ◽  
Xavier Ordeñana ◽  
Paul Vera-Gilces ◽  
Alfredo Jiménez

This paper examines the role of the quality of institutions, financial development and FDI on current account imbalances, which narrowed during the Global Financial Crisis. In doing so, we utilize (i) a sample of 49 advanced and emerging economies during 1984–2014; (ii) a novel three-clustered indices of institutional quality and (iii) two measures of financial development, the share of FDI and a measure of financial crisis in addition to standard determinants of the current account. We find that the better the quality of institutions and the greater the financial development, the larger are current account deficits; meanwhile, FDI contributes to boost current account balances. Moreover, financial crisis episodes tend to improve current account balances, particularly for countries that are highly open to trade and to receive FDI, as in the case of advanced economies and East Asian countries.


2015 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 51-58 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ai-Lian Tan ◽  
Normaz Wana Ismail

In light of the global financial crisis, an extensive implementation of fiscal stimulus packages has triggered an enormous soared of public debt in Europe. While grappling with this albatross, the high debt level has aroused the paramount interest of this study casts doubt on the role of sovereign debt towards the linkage between FDI and economic growth. To this end, this study aims to assess the effects of debt on growth through the channel of FDI in European countries by applying Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimation. The empirical findings, by and large, suggest that a lower growth performance is evident with the association of high government debt through foreign investment. In a nutshell, over borrowing of public finance would crowd out private investment and hence stifle economic growth. JEL Classifications Code: F21, F34, F43, G01


2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (172) ◽  
Author(s):  
José Garrido ◽  
Sanaa Nadeem ◽  
Nagwa Riad ◽  
Anjum Rosha ◽  
Chanda DeLong ◽  
...  

One consequence of interest rates remaining “too low for too long” since the Global Financial Crisis is the buildup in private leverage in emerging economies. These vulnerabilities have been laid bare by the COVID-19 shock. This paper employs the growth at risk framework (Adrian, Boyarchenko, and Giannone, 2019) to examine how different types of private leverage present risks to future GDP growth in Asian economies. We find evidence that private leverage can boost GDP growth in the near term, but can increase the risks of low growth over the medium term. For our sample, we also find that household debt poses a larger drag on future GDP growth than corporate debt. In the second part of the paper, we provide an overview of a strategy for prevention and resolution of over-indebtedness, with a focus on legal tools, and with considerations to account for the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. Using a novel cross-country survey, we examine the role of legal techniques to prevent and treat corporate and household over-indebtedness, benchmarking those in ASEAN-5, China, India, Japan and Korea against international best practice. The analysis can inform a country-specific prioritized approach to strengthening legal frameworks.


Author(s):  
Irene Spagna

This chapter analyzes the growth of OTC derivatives before the global financial crisis of 2008 and the role of credit default swaps, in particular, in the near collapse of the global economy. It begins by exploring the basic characteristics of derivatives used as risk management instruments by investors to hedge against or exploit the volatility of asset prices. The analysis further reveals that the pre-crisis period was characterized by a broad-based consensus favoring deregulated markets and globally designed private rules. While not always unanimously supported, permissive public regulatory choices were often encouraged by interest group lobbying, the market-friendly views of many domestic authorities, and concerns about regulatory uncertainty and international competitiveness.


2011 ◽  
Vol 216 ◽  
pp. R1-R15 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erland W. Nier

There is increasing recognition that prior to the global financial crisis financial regulation had lacked a macroprudential perspective. There has since been a strong effort to make a new macroprudential orientation operational, including through the establishment of new macroprudential authorities or ‘committees’ in a number of jurisdictions. These developments raise — and this paper explores — the following three questions. First, what distinguishes macroprudential policy from microprudential policy and what are its key tasks? Second, what powers should be given to macroprudential authorities and what should be their mandate? Third, how can governance arrangements ensure that macroprudential policies are pursued effectively? While arrangements for macroprudential policy will to some extent be country-specific, we identify three basic challenges in setting up an effective macroprudential policy framework and discuss options to address them.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Наталия Александровна Иванова

Актуальность исследования для экономики усиливается такими явлениями, как влияние мирового финансового кризиса, усложнение отраслевой и территориальной структуры производства, усиление интеграции всех сфер общественной жизни, возрастание значения экологических, социальных и политических факторов развития общества, повышение трансакционных издержек принятия решений в сфере управления. Изучение литературы о территориях дает основание определить понятие региональной системы России как элемент, подсистему некоторой иерархической системы, в роли которой выступает национальная экономика. Процессы глобализации коренным образом изменяют роль регионов в национальной экономике. Регион постепенно становится не только отдельным экономическим агентом, но также вступает в мировые конкурентные процессы. Положение территориально-организованных систем оказывается зависимым не только от макроэкономических условий или возможностей самих регионов, но также от расстановки конкурентных сил, механизмов взаимодействия регионов с другими субъектами. В этой связи возникает необходимость системных исследований с целью выработки комплекса мер, которые будут способствовать повышению конкурентоспособности экономики в целом, ее регионов в частности. Существующий инструментарий региональной экономики является уже недостаточным для анализа такого рода проблем, а традиционный конкурентный анализ не рассматривает регионы в качестве субъектов конкуренции. Требуется расширение и применение новых теоретических подходов к анализу региональных экономических систем и эффективности их развития, формированию целостной концепции развития территориальной организации хозяйства, что обусловило актуальность данного исследования. The relevance of the study for the economy is enhanced by such phenomena as the impact of the global financial crisis, the complication of the sectoral and territorial structure of production, the strengthening of integration of all spheres of public life, the increasing importance of environmental, social and political factors in the development of society, the increase in transaction costs of decision-making in the field of management. The study of the literature on territories gives grounds to define the concept of the regional system of Russia as an element, a subsystem of some hierarchical system, in the role of which the national economy acts. The processes of globalization are fundamentally changing the role of regions in the national economy. The region is gradually becoming not only a separate economic agent, but also enters into global competitive processes. The position of geographically organized systems turns out to depend not only on the macroeconomic conditions or the capabilities of the regions themselves, but also on the alignment of competitive forces, the mechanisms of interaction of regions with other entities. In this regard, there is a need for systematic research in order to develop a set of measures that will contribute to improving the competitiveness of the economy as a whole, its regions in particular. The existing tools of the regional economy are no longer sufficient to analyze such problems, and traditional competitive analysis does not consider regions as subjects of competition. It requires the expansion and application of new theoretical approaches to the analysis of regional economic systems and the effectiveness of their development, the formation of an integral concept of the development of the territorial organization of the economy, which determined the relevance of this study.


Bankarstvo ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 49 (4) ◽  
pp. 9-41
Author(s):  
Radovan Kovačević

The Western Balkans (WB) countries registered an increase in the current account (CA) deficit and net capital inflow in the period before the outbreak of the global financial crisis of 2008. The external debt of these countries has increased. The aim of this paper is to examine the causality relationship between the CA and financial accounts (FA) balance of Serbia. A framework for the empirical analysis is the vector autoregression (VAR) model and the vector error correction (VEC) model. Using the Johansen cointegration test, we find the existence of a long-run causality relationship between these two variables. The estimated long-run coefficient on the FA variable as an independent variable shows that an increase of Serbia's FA balance by 1% leads to an increase in the CA deficit of Serbia by 0.58%. Applying the Granger causality test, it was found that causality runs from FA to the CA, which implies recommendations for economic policymakers. The finding indicates the need to continuously check the sustainability of the CA deficit of Serbia, as well as to monitor the level of presence of foreign capital in the Serbian economy.


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