scholarly journals Two-stage stochastic programming approach for limited medical reserves allocation under uncertainties

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuwei Zhang ◽  
Zhenping Li ◽  
Pengbo Jiao ◽  
Shen Zhu
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Optimal Allocation ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Stochastic Program ◽  
Public Health Emergency ◽  
Programming Approach ◽  
Two Stage ◽  
Public Health Emergencies ◽  
Medical Supplies ◽  
Health Care Centers

AbstractAt the early stage of public health emergencies, when the conventional medical reserves prepared are insufficient, and productivity could temporarily not meet the surge in demand, donations can be used to cover excess demand for medical supplies to a large extent. This paper explicitly considers the allocation problem of limited medical reserves during a public health emergency, incorporating uncertainty in demand and donated supplies and the priorities of health care centers. The problem is formulated as a two-stage stochastic program that regards the donated supplies as an efficient recourse action, aiming to minimize the total losses. The optimal allocation strategy of limited medical reserves and donations is obtained by solving the model using Gurobi solver. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed approach is verified by a series of computational results, which show that the solutions of our method not only benefit the emergency demand fulfill rate but reduce the total losses as well.

scholarly journals On collaborative reinforcement learning to optimize the redistribution of critical medical supplies throughout the COVID-19 pandemic

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bryan P Bednarski ◽  
Akash Deep Singh ◽  
William M Jones
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Reinforcement Learning ◽  
Medical Equipment ◽  
Census Bureau ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Public Health Emergencies ◽  
Medical Supplies ◽  
Learning Techniques ◽  
Disease Impact ◽  
Random States

Abstract objective This work investigates how reinforcement learning and deep learning models can facilitate the near-optimal redistribution of medical equipment in order to bolster public health responses to future crises similar to the COVID-19 pandemic. materials and methods The system presented is simulated with disease impact statistics from the Institute of Health Metrics (IHME), Center for Disease Control, and Census Bureau[1, 2, 3]. We present a robust pipeline for data preprocessing, future demand inference, and a redistribution algorithm that can be adopted across broad scales and applications. results The reinforcement learning redistribution algorithm demonstrates performance optimality ranging from 93-95%. Performance improves consistently with the number of random states participating in exchange, demonstrating average shortage reductions of 78.74% (± 30.8) in simulations with 5 states to 93.50% (± 0.003) with 50 states. conclusion These findings bolster confidence that reinforcement learning techniques can reliably guide resource allocation for future public health emergencies.

scholarly journals 18.H. Workshop: Bringing evidence during public health emergencies: addressing the challenge through HTA

2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (Supplement_5) ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Emergency Preparedness ◽  
Public Health Emergency ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Evidence Based ◽  
Public Health Emergencies ◽  
Response Planning ◽  
Emergency Preparedness And Response ◽  
Public Health Emergency Preparedness

Abstract Evidence-based decision-making is central to public health. Implementing evidence-informed actions is most challenging during a public health emergency as in an epidemic, when time is limited, scientific uncertainties and political pressures tend to be high, and irrefutable evidence may be lacking. The process of including evidence in public health decision-making and for evidence-informed policy, in preparation, and during public health emergencies, is not systematic and is complicated by many barriers as the absences of shared tools and approaches for evidence-based preparedness and response planning. Many of today's public health crises are also cross-border, and countries need to collaborate in a systematic and standardized way in order to enhance interoperability and to implement coordinated evidence-based response plans. To strengthen the impact of scientific evidence on decision-making for public health emergency preparedness and response, it is necessary to better define mechanisms through which interdisciplinary evidence feeds into decision-making processes during public health emergencies and the context in which these mechanisms operate. As a multidisciplinary, standardized and evidence-based decision-making tool, Health Technology Assessment (HTA) represents and approach that can inform public health emergency preparedness and response planning processes; it can also provide meaningful insights on existing preparedness structures, working as bridge between scientists and decision-makers, easing knowledge transition and translation to ensure that evidence is effectively integrated into decision-making contexts. HTA can address the link between scientific evidence and decision-making in public health emergencies, and overcome the key challenges faced by public health experts when advising decision makers, including strengthening and accelerating knowledge transfer through rapid HTA, improving networking between actors and disciplines. It may allow a 360° perspective, providing a comprehensive view to decision-making in preparation and during public health emergencies. The objective of the workshop is to explore and present how HTA can be used as a shared and systematic evidence-based tool for Public Health Emergency Preparedness and Response, in order to enable stakeholders and decision makers taking actions based on the best available evidence through a process which is systematic and transparent. Key messages There are many barriers and no shared mechanisms to bring evidence in decision-making during public health emergencies. HTA can represent the tool to bring evidence-informed actions in public health emergency preparedness and response.

scholarly journals The challenge of bringing evidence in decision-making for public health emergencies: can preparedness reach out to HTA?

2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (Supplement_5) ◽  
Author(s):  
C E Chronaki ◽  
A Miglietta
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Policy Development ◽  
Digital Health ◽  
Resource Planning ◽  
Public Health Emergency ◽  
Evidence Based ◽  
Public Health Emergencies ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Evidence Based Decision Making

Abstract Evidence-based decision-making is central to public health. Implementing evidence-informed actions is most challenging during a public health emergency as in an epidemic, when time is limited, scientific uncertainties and political pressures tend to be high, and reliable data is typically lacking. The process of including data for preparedness and training for evidence-based decision making in public health emergencies is not systematic and is complicated by many barriers as the absence of common digital tools and approaches for resource planning and update of response plans. Health Technology Assessment (HTA) is used with the aim to improve the quality and efficiency of public health interventions and to make healthcare systems more sustainable. Many of today's public health crises are also cross-border, and countries need to collaborate in a systematic and standardized way in order to enhance interoperability to share data and to plan coordinated response. Digital health tools have an important role to play in this setting, facilitating use of knowledge about the population that can potentially affected by the crisis within and across regional and national borders. To strengthen the impact of scientific evidence on decision-making for public health emergency preparedness and response, it is necessary to better define and align mechanisms through which interdisciplinary evidence feeds into decision-making processes during public health emergencies and the context in which these mechanisms operate. Activities and policy development in the HTA network could inform this process. The objective of this presentation is to identify barriers for evidence-based decision making during public health emergencies and discuss how standardization in digital health and HTA processes may help overcome these barriers leading to more effective coordinated and evidence-based public health emergency response.

scholarly journals Tripartite Evolutionary Game Model for Public Health Emergencies

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Zhiqi Xu ◽  
Yukun Cheng ◽  
Shuangliang Yao
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Local Government ◽  
Evolutionary Game ◽  
Public Health Emergency ◽  
Game Model ◽  
Negative Behaviors ◽  
The Public ◽  
Public Health Emergencies ◽  
Theoretical Support ◽  
Safety And Health

Public health emergencies are more related to the safety and health of the public. For the management of the public health emergencies, all parties’ cooperation is the key to preventing and controlling the emergencies. Based on the assumption of bounded rationality, we formulate a tripartite evolutionary game model, involving the local government, the enterprises, and the public, for the public health emergency, e.g., COVID-19. The evolutionary stable strategies under different conditions of the tripartite evolutionary game are explored, and the effect from different factors on the decision-makings of participants for public health emergencies is also analyzed. Numerical analysis results show that formulating reasonable subsidy measures, encouraging the participation of the public, and enforcing the punishment to enterprises for their negative behaviors can prompt three parties to cooperate in fighting against the epidemic. Our work enriches an understanding of the governance for the public health emergency and provides theoretical support for the local government and related participants to make proper decisions in public health emergencies.

scholarly journals Government Epidemic Prevention and Economic Growth Path Under Public Health Emergency: Theoretical Model and Simulation Analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhichao Yin ◽  
Xiaoxu Chen ◽  
Zongshu Wang ◽  
Lijin Xiang
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Economic Growth ◽  
Theoretical Model ◽  
Simulation Analysis ◽  
Close Contact ◽  
Public Health Emergency ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Growth Path ◽  
Public Health Emergencies ◽  
Economic Output

This paper constructs a partial equilibrium model under public health emergency shocks based on economic growth theory, and investigates the relationship between government intervention and virus transmission and economic growth path. We found that both close contacts tracing measures and isolation measures are beneficial to human capital stock and economic output per capita, and the effect of close contact tracing measures is better than that of isolation measures. For infectious diseases of different intensities, economic growth pathways differed across interventions. For low contagious public health emergencies, the focus should be on the coordination of isolation and tracing measures. For highly contagious public health emergencies, strict isolation, and tracing measures have limited effect in repairing the negative economic impact of the outbreak. The theoretical model provides a basic paradigm for the future researches to study economic growth under health emergencies, with good scalability and robustness.

scholarly journals Epidemiological features of Corona Virus Disease 2019 in China

2021 ◽  
Vol 251 ◽  
pp. 02038
Author(s):  
Ting Wang ◽  
Qiuxin Wang ◽  
Jinwen Wang
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Virus Disease ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Public Health Emergency ◽  
Cure Rate ◽  
Central Cities ◽  
Epidemiological Features ◽  
Corona Virus

As a public health emergency with strong infectious, corona virus disease (COVID-19) in Wuhan,Hubei in December 2019 has attracted worldwide concern. The epidemiological features of COVID- 19 in China at the early stage are examined. The spread of COVID-19 has reached a peak in China. The epidemic situation is very severe, especially in the regions or central cities closely linked with Wuhan. The increase in cure rate of COVID-19 also predicts a reduction in the risk of fatality.

scholarly journals A REVIEW ARTICLE ON: CORONA VIRUS A RAISING GAINT

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Suraj G Malpani ◽  
Shraddha T Nemane ◽  
Vishweshwar M Dharashive ◽  
Nilesh N Shinde ◽  
Sushil S Kore
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Antiviral Treatment ◽  
Genome Structure ◽  
Respiratory Illness ◽  
Review Article ◽  
Public Health Emergency ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Infected People ◽  
Mode Of Transmission

The 2019-nCoV has been identified as the reason of an outbreak of respiratory illness in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China beginning in December 2019. This outbreak had spread to 19 countries with 11,791 confirmed cases, including 213 deaths, as of January 31, 2020. The WHO declared it as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. This study analyzed and discussed 70 research articles published until January 31, 2020 for a better understanding of the virology, pathogenesis, mode of transmission, classification, genome structure of this virus. Studies thus far have shown origination in link to a seafood market in Wuhan, but specific animal association has not been confirmed. The reported symptoms include fever, cough, fatigue, pneumonia, headache, diarrhea, hemoptysis, and dyspnea. Preventive measures like masks, hand hygiene practices, avoidance of public contact, case detection, contact tracing, and quarantines are being suggested for reducing the transmission. To date, no specific antiviral treatment is proven effective; hence, infected people primarily rely on symptomatic treatment and supportive care. Although these studies had relevance to control a public emergency, more research need to be conducted to provide valid and reliable ways to manage this kind of public health emergency in both short- and long- term. Coronaviruses (CoV) belong to the genus Coronavirus with its high mutation rate in the Corona viridae. The objective of this review article was to have a primary   opinion about the disease mode of transmission, virology in this early stage of COVID-19 outbreak. Keywords: 2019-nCoV, virology, pathogenesis, genome structure

scholarly journals How Does a Public Health Emergency Motivate People’s Impulsive Consumption? An Empirical Study during the COVID-19 Outbreak in China

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (14) ◽  
pp. 5019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mo Li ◽  
Taiyang Zhao ◽  
Ershuai Huang ◽  
Jianan Li
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Perceived Control ◽  
Structural Equation ◽  
Disaster Risk ◽  
Crisis Response ◽  
Equation Model ◽  
Public Health Emergency ◽  
Consumption Behavior ◽  
Public Health Emergencies ◽  
Consumption Choices

Impulsive consumption is a typical behavior that people often present during public health emergencies, which usually leads to negative outcomes. This study investigates how public health emergencies, such as COVID-19, affect people’s impulsive consumption behavior. Data from 1548 individuals in China during the COVID-19 outbreak was collected. The sample covered 297 prefecture-level cities in 31 provincial administrative regions. The research method included the use of a structural equation model to test multiple research hypotheses. The study finds that the severity of a pandemic positively affects people’s impulsive consumption. Specifically, the more severe the pandemic, the more likely people are to make impulsive consumption choices. The results indicate that both perceived control and materialism play mediating roles between the severity of a pandemic and impulsive consumption. As conclusions, people’s impulsive consumption during public health emergencies can be weakened either by enhancing their perceived control or by reducing their materialistic tendency. These conclusions are valuable and useful for a government’s crisis response and disaster risk management.

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