scholarly journals Armoured bush cricket, Acanthoplus discoidalis (Walker) (Orthoptera: tettigoniidae) outbreak prediction using rainfall patterns in three zones of Botswana

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. J. Z. Mviha ◽  
J. Holt ◽  
S. V. Green
Keyword(s):  
Kappa Coefficient ◽  
Adult Survival ◽  
Egg Survival ◽  
Climatic Zones ◽  
Rule Based ◽  
East Central ◽  
Egg Banks ◽  
Model Predictions ◽  
Quantitative Understanding ◽  
Bush Cricket

AbstractBased on a quantitative understanding of the environmental factors effecting armoured bush cricket, Acanthoplus discoidalis population dynamics, a hypothesis was formulated to explain the occurrence of outbreaks in some years and locations. The principles, expressed using a rule-based or qualitative model, were that nymph and adult survival and fecundity were reduced in years with uneven rainfall and that egg survival was reduced in years with a wet late-season as this is associated with increased egg predation and/or water-logging. The implication was that large egg banks resulted either when a large number of adults were present or when neither low fecundity nor high egg mortality were constraints. Such large egg banks were however predicted only to lead to outbreaks when there was an adequate amount of food for nymph and adult survival in the following season. Model predictions were compared with observed outbreaks of A. discoidalis between 1988 to 2002 for the three climatic zones of the east, central and western parts of southern Botswana. There was significant agreement between model predictions and observed outbreaks in two of the three zones (95% confidence interval of the kappa coefficient of agreement > 0). Taking the data for all three zones together and compared to the average outbreak frequency, an outbreak was three times more likely to occur when the model predicted an outbreak and six times less likely to occur when it predicted no outbreak.

Burrow occupancy and productivity at coastal sooty shearwater (Puffinus griseus) breeding colonies, South Island, New Zealand: can mark - recapture be used to estimate burrowscope accuracy?

2003 ◽  
Vol 30 (4) ◽  
pp. 377 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chris Jones ◽  
Susan Bettany ◽  
Henrik Moller ◽  
David Fletcher ◽  
Justine de Cruz
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Survival Rates ◽  
Species Abundance ◽  
Adult Survival ◽  
Egg Survival ◽  
Global Pattern ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Mark Recapture ◽  
Mammalian Predators ◽  
Occupancy Rates

Breeding colonies of sooty shearwaters ('muttonbird', tïtï, Puffinus griseus) on mainland New Zealand have declined in recent years. New data on burrow occupancy and colony productivity for seven sooty shearwater breeding colonies on the coast of Otago, New Zealand for the 1996–97 and 1997–98 breeding seasons are presented and analysed as part of a five-year data set. Detection of a burrow's occupants using a fibre-optic burrowscope may underestimate absolute occupancy rates, but is still of value in the analysis of trends. Detection probabilities estimated by the novel use of mark–recapture models corresponded with those of previous studies of the technique's accuracy. Mainland declines are associated with a lack of control of introduced mammalian predators at most mainland colonies superimposed on a global pattern of decline in the species' abundance. Large numbers of recovered carcasses and an absence of burrow activity at two small mainland colonies show the decline to extinction of these colonies over the five years of collecting data. At one mainland colony with intensive predator control, survival rates and parameter variances are comparable with those found on a predator-free offshore island. All other mainland colonies showed negligible breeding success. There was a significant positive relationship between egg survival and an index of relative adult survival, with an apparent threshold below which few eggs hatch. Adult survival during the breeding season is likely to be the most important parameter in maintaining a colony's viability.

scholarly journals An audit of uncertainty in multi-scale cardiac electrophysiology models

2020 ◽  
Vol 378 (2173) ◽  
pp. 20190335 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard H. Clayton ◽  
Yasser Aboelkassem ◽  
Chris D. Cantwell ◽  
Cesare Corrado ◽  
Tammo Delhaas ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cardiac Electrophysiology ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Cardiac Cells ◽  
Multi Scale ◽  
Clinical Procedures ◽  
Influence Model ◽  
Open Questions ◽  
Cardiac Modelling ◽  
Model Predictions ◽  
Quantitative Understanding

Models of electrical activation and recovery in cardiac cells and tissue have become valuable research tools, and are beginning to be used in safety-critical applications including guidance for clinical procedures and for drug safety assessment. As a consequence, there is an urgent need for a more detailed and quantitative understanding of the ways that uncertainty and variability influence model predictions. In this paper, we review the sources of uncertainty in these models at different spatial scales, discuss how uncertainties are communicated across scales, and begin to assess their relative importance. We conclude by highlighting important challenges that continue to face the cardiac modelling community, identifying open questions, and making recommendations for future studies. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Uncertainty quantification in cardiac and cardiovascular modelling and simulation’.

A comparison between model and rule based control of a periodic activated sludge process

1998 ◽  
Vol 37 (12) ◽  
pp. 343-351 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Isaacs ◽  
D. Thornberg
Keyword(s):  
Activated Sludge ◽  
Inorganic Nitrogen ◽  
Test Scenario ◽  
Rule Based ◽  
Criterion Functions ◽  
Model Predictions ◽  
Simple Rules ◽  
Fixed Phase ◽  
Total Inorganic Nitrogen ◽  
Better Than

Two strategies for control of nitrogen removal in an alternating activated sludge plant are compared. One is based on simple model predictions determining the cycle length at the beginning of each cycle. The other is based on simple rules relating present ammonia and nitrate concentrations. Both strategies are close in efficiency measured as effluent total (inorganic) nitrogen and both perform better than using fixed phase lengths for a test scenario describing a typical dry weather diurnal variation. After modifying the criterion functions of the rule based strategy the two strategies are found to produce equivalent controls, which means that the optimal criteria of the model based strategy can be fulfilled without the need for model predictions.

Sensitivity and elasticity analysis of Tetranychus urticae Koch population parameters: Consequences for pest management 

2020 ◽  
Vol 25 (2) ◽  
pp. 268-284
Author(s):  
Alireza Nemati ◽  
Elham Riahi ◽  
Saadollah Houshmand
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Matrix Models ◽  
Survival Rates ◽  
Demographic Variables ◽  
Adult Survival ◽  
Egg Survival ◽  
Horticultural Crops ◽  
Structured Matrix ◽  
Different Temperatures

Sensitivity and elasticity analyses quantify the effect of an absolute and proportional change in demographic variables on population growth rate (λ), respectively. The methods are used to identify the variable(s) that have the largest influence on λ. Tetranychus urticae Koch is one of the most polyphagous tetranychid mites which has been collected from plenty plant species including agricultural and horticultural crops. In this study, sensitivity and elasticity analyses were used to investigate the effects of various demographic variables on λ at five different temperatures (15, 20, 25, 30 and 35 °C), using both age- and stage-structured matrix models. Considering the sensitivity of λ to age-dependent fecundity rates (fx), it was found that starting oviposition one day earlier was associated with the highest sensitivity compared to the other age classes, irrespective of temperature. Besides, results from both age- and stage-structured matrix models indicated that λ is more sensitive to changes in survival rates than in fecundity rates at all temperatures. Furthermore, female individuals at the ages of 46, 23, 14, 11 and 7 days had the highest contribution to population growth in comparison with other ages, when reared at the above-mentioned temperatures, respectively. Also, the sensitivity of λ to the changes in survival of adults was higher than in other stages. Besides, the elasticity to fecundity rate at the age of first reproduction was considerably higher than those associated with the age of last reproduction. The survival rates (si) generally exhibited a higher elasticity than the transition rates (gi). Overall, adult survival had the highest influence on λ followed by immature survival, egg survival, and female fecundity. Consequently, management efforts that aim at decreasing adult survival are likely to yield the best results with regard to reducing the growth rate of T. urticae.

Analysis of Industrial and Household IoT Data Using Computationally Intelligent Algorithm

2019 ◽  
pp. 25-48
Author(s):  
Soumen Mukherjee ◽  
Arup Kumar Bhattacharjee ◽  
Debabrata Bhattacharya ◽  
Moumita Ghosal
Keyword(s):  
Data Mining ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Classification Accuracy ◽  
Kappa Coefficient ◽  
Data Dependency ◽  
Intelligent Algorithm ◽  
Rule Based ◽  
Classification Techniques ◽  
Long Duration ◽  
Popular Power

In this chapter, data mining approaches are applied on standard IoT dataset to identify relationship among attributes of the dataset. IoT is not an exception; data mining can be used in this domain also. Various rule-based classifiers and unsupervised classifiers are implemented here. Using these approaches relation between various IoT features are determined based on different properties of classification like support, confidence, etc. For classification, a real-time IoT dataset is used, which consists of household figures collected from various sources over a long duration. A brief comparison is also shown for different classification approaches on the IoT dataset. Kappa coefficient is also calculated for these classification techniques to measure the robustness of these approaches. In this chapter, standard and popular power utilization in household dataset is used to show the association between the different intra-data dependency. Classification accuracy of more than 86% is found with the Almanac of Minutely Power Dataset (AMPds) in the present work.

scholarly journals Effects of a Novel Fish Transport System on the Health of Adult Fall Chinook Salmon

2016 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 347-358 ◽  
Author(s):  
David R. Geist ◽  
Alison H. Colotelo ◽  
Timothy J. Linley ◽  
Katie A. Wagner ◽  
Ann L. Miracle
Keyword(s):  
Immune System ◽  
Chinook Salmon ◽  
Oncorhynchus Tshawytscha ◽  
Reproductive Function ◽  
Fish Passage ◽  
Adult Survival ◽  
System Response ◽  
Control Group ◽  
Duration Of Treatment ◽  
Egg Survival

Abstract Movement past hydroelectric dams and related in-river structures has important implications for habitat connectivity and population persistence in migratory fish. A major problem is that many of these structures lack effective fish passage facilities, which can fragment spawning and rearing areas and negatively impact recruitment. While traditional fish passage facilities (e.g., ladders, trap and haul) can effectively enable fish to pass over barriers, their capital or operational costs can be significant. We evaluated the utility of a novel transport device that utilizes a flexible tube with differential internal air pressure to pass fish around in-river barriers. We apportioned a total of 147 adult fall Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) nearing maturation to three treatments and a control group. In two of the treatments, adult fall Chinook salmon were transported through the device via two lengths of tube (12 or 77 m) and we compared their injury, stress, and immune system responses and reproductive function to a third treatment where fish were moved by a standard trap-and-haul method and also to a control group. We observed no significant differences among the treatment or control groups in posttreatment adult survival, injury, or stress. Indicators of immune system response and reproductive readiness were also not significantly different among the four groups. Egg survival was significantly different among the groups, with the highest survival in the eggs from females transported 77 m and lowest in the control group; the differences were highly variable within groups and not consistent with the duration of treatment or degree of handling. Taken together, the results suggest the device did not injure or alter normal physiological functioning of adult fall Chinook salmon nearing maturation and may provide an effective method for transporting such fish around in-river barriers during their spawning migration.

Model of nitric oxide diffusion in an arteriole: impact of hemoglobin-based blood substitutes

2002 ◽  
Vol 282 (6) ◽  
pp. H2245-H2253 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mahendra Kavdia ◽  
Nikolaos M. Tsoukias ◽  
Aleksander S. Popel
Keyword(s):  
Nitric Oxide ◽  
Soluble Guanylate Cyclase ◽  
Pressor Response ◽  
Blood Substitutes ◽  
Oxygen Carriers ◽  
Free Hemoglobin ◽  
Model Predictions ◽  
Quantitative Understanding ◽  
Parenchymal Cells ◽  
Nitric Oxide Diffusion

Administration of hemoglobin-based oxygen carriers (HBOCs) frequently results in vasoconstriction that is primarily attributed to the scavenging of endothelium-derived nitric oxide (NO) by cell-free hemoglobin. The ensuing pressor response could be caused by the high NO reactivity of HBOC in the vascular lumen and/or the extravasation of hemoglobin molecules. There is a need for quantitative understanding of the NO interaction with HBOC in the blood vessels. We developed a detailed mathematical model of NO diffusion and reaction in the presence of an HBOC for an arteriolar-size vessel. The HBOC reactivity with NO and degree of extravasation was studied in the range of 2–58 × 106 M−1 · s−1 and 0–100%, respectively. The model predictions showed that the addition of HBOC reduced the smooth muscle (SM) NO concentration in the activation range (12–28 nM) for soluble guanylate cyclase, a major determinant of SM contraction. The SM NO concentration was significantly reduced when the extravasation of HBOC molecules was considered. The myoglobin present in the parenchymal cells scavenges NO, which reduces the SM NO concentration.

Using Conventional Articulation Tests With Highly Unintelligible Children

1992 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 52-60 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pamela G. Garn-Nunn ◽  
Vicki Martin
Keyword(s):  
Test Results ◽  
Phonological Processes ◽  
Rule Based ◽  
Severity Level ◽  
Error Sensitivity ◽  
Conventional Tests ◽  
Severity Levels ◽  
Conventional Test ◽  
Impaired Children

This study explored whether or not standard administration and scoring of conventional articulation tests accurately identified children as phonologically disordered and whether or not information from these tests established severity level and programming needs. Results of standard scoring procedures from the Assessment of Phonological Processes-Revised, the Goldman-Fristoe Test of Articulation, the Photo Articulation Test, and the Weiss Comprehensive Articulation Test were compared for 20 phonologically impaired children. All tests identified the children as phonologically delayed/disordered, but the conventional tests failed to clearly and consistently differentiate varying severity levels. Conventional test results also showed limitations in error sensitivity, ease of computation for scoring procedures, and implications for remediation programming. The use of some type of rule-based analysis for phonologically impaired children is highly recommended.

Haunted by a Doppelgänger

2014 ◽  
Vol 61 (1) ◽  
pp. 12-22 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bettina von Helversen ◽  
Stefan M. Herzog ◽  
Jörg Rieskamp
Keyword(s):  
Relevant Information ◽  
Psychological Research ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Human Judgment ◽  
Rule Based ◽  
New Employees ◽  
High Performing ◽  
Facial Similarity ◽  
Similarity Effect ◽  
Judgment Strategy

Judging other people is a common and important task. Every day professionals make decisions that affect the lives of other people when they diagnose medical conditions, grant parole, or hire new employees. To prevent discrimination, professional standards require that decision makers render accurate and unbiased judgments solely based on relevant information. Facial similarity to previously encountered persons can be a potential source of bias. Psychological research suggests that people only rely on similarity-based judgment strategies if the provided information does not allow them to make accurate rule-based judgments. Our study shows, however, that facial similarity to previously encountered persons influences judgment even in situations in which relevant information is available for making accurate rule-based judgments and where similarity is irrelevant for the task and relying on similarity is detrimental. In two experiments in an employment context we show that applicants who looked similar to high-performing former employees were judged as more suitable than applicants who looked similar to low-performing former employees. This similarity effect was found despite the fact that the participants used the relevant résumé information about the applicants by following a rule-based judgment strategy. These findings suggest that similarity-based and rule-based processes simultaneously underlie human judgment.

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