Estimating invisible trade on aggregate time-series data in the presence of large measurement errors

1984 ◽  
Vol 15 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 331-336
Author(s):  
Aleksander Markowski
1985 ◽  
Vol 42 (1) ◽  
pp. 147-149 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carl J. Walters

Functional relationships, such as stock–recruitment curves, are generally estimated from time series data where natural "random" factors have generated both deviations from the relationship and also informative variation in the independent variables. Even in the absence of measurement errors, such natural experiments can lead to severely biased parameter estimates. For stock–recruitment models, the bias is misleading for management: the stock will appear too productive when it is low, and too unproductive when it is large. The likely magnitude of such biases can and should be determined for any particular case by Monte Carlo simulations.


2019 ◽  
Vol 23 (9) ◽  
pp. 3603-3629 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gabriel C. Rau ◽  
Vincent E. A. Post ◽  
Margaret Shanafield ◽  
Torsten Krekeler ◽  
Eddie W. Banks ◽  
...  

Abstract. Hydraulic head and gradient measurements underpin practically all investigations in hydrogeology. There is sufficient information in the literature to suggest that head measurement errors can impede the reliable detection of flow directions and significantly increase the uncertainty of groundwater flow rate calculations. Yet educational textbooks contain limited content regarding measurement techniques, and studies rarely report on measurement errors. The objective of our study is to review currently accepted standard operating procedures in hydrological research and to determine the smallest head gradients that can be resolved. To this aim, we first systematically investigate the systematic and random measurement errors involved in collecting time-series information on hydraulic head at a given location: (1) geospatial position, (2) point of head, (3) depth to water, and (4) water level time series. Then, by propagating the random errors, we find that with current standard practice, horizontal head gradients <10-4 are resolvable at distances ⪆170 m. Further, it takes extraordinary effort to measure hydraulic head gradients <10-3 over distances <10 m. In reality, accuracy will be worse than our theoretical estimates because of the many possible systematic errors. Regional flow on a scale of kilometres or more can be inferred with current best-practice methods, but processes such as vertical flow within an aquifer cannot be determined until more accurate and precise measurement methods are developed. Finally, we offer a concise set of recommendations for water level, hydraulic head and gradient time-series measurements. We anticipate that our work contributes to progressing the quality of head time-series data in the hydrogeological sciences and provides a starting point for the development of universal measurement protocols for water level data collection.


1981 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 1435-1448 ◽  
Author(s):  
H Folmer

Two kinds of problems have generally been encountered in measuring the effects of instruments of regional policy. The first concerns the construction of an adequate method, which should (a) take explicitly into account the multidimensional character of a regional profile, (b) disentangle policy effects from autonomous developments, (c) make it possible to compare the effects of different policy instruments, and (d) be capable of dealing with theoretical constructs and measurement errors. The second problem relates to the scarcity of regional data, both concerning time-series and cross-sectional data. A linear structural equation model is presented which meets the first set of conditions. This model is then modified in such a way that it can be estimated by pooling cross-sectional and time-series data, thus increasing the number of observations. In addition, as an application the effects of regional industrialization policy on investments in the Netherlands during the period 1973–1976 are estimated.


2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen J. Tueller ◽  
Richard A. Van Dorn ◽  
Georgiy Bobashev ◽  
Barry Eggleston

Author(s):  
Rizki Rahma Kusumadewi ◽  
Wahyu Widayat

Exchange rate is one tool to measure a country’s economic conditions. The growth of a stable currency value indicates that the country has a relatively good economic conditions or stable. This study has the purpose to analyze the factors that affect the exchange rate of the Indonesian Rupiah against the United States Dollar in the period of 2000-2013. The data used in this study is a secondary data which are time series data, made up of exports, imports, inflation, the BI rate, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and the money supply (M1) in the quarter base, from first quarter on 2000 to fourth quarter on 2013. Regression model time series data used the ARCH-GARCH with ARCH model selection indicates that the variables that significantly influence the exchange rate are exports, inflation, the central bank rate and the money supply (M1). Whereas import and GDP did not give any influence.


2016 ◽  
Vol 136 (3) ◽  
pp. 363-372
Author(s):  
Takaaki Nakamura ◽  
Makoto Imamura ◽  
Masashi Tatedoko ◽  
Norio Hirai

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Angkana Pumpuang ◽  
Anuphao Aobpaet

The land deformation in line of sight (LOS) direction can be measured using time series InSAR. InSAR can successfully measure land subsidence based on LOS in many big cities, including the eastern and western regions of Bangkok which is separated by Chao Phraya River. There are differences in prosperity between both sides due to human activities, land use, and land cover. This study focuses on the land subsidence difference between the western and eastern regions of Bangkok and the most possible cause affecting the land subsidence rates. The Radarsat-2 single look complex (SLC) was used to set up the time series data for long term monitoring. To generate interferograms, StaMPS for Time Series InSAR processing was applied by using the PSI algorithm in DORIS software. It was found that the subsidence was more to the eastern regions of Bangkok where the vertical displacements were +0.461 millimetres and -0.919 millimetres on the western and the eastern side respectively. The districts of Nong Chok, Lat Krabang, and Khlong Samwa have the most extensive farming area in eastern Bangkok. Besides, there were also three major industrial estates located in eastern Bangkok like Lat Krabang, Anya Thani and Bang Chan Industrial Estate. By the assumption of water demand, there were forty-eight wells and three wells found in the eastern and western part respectively. The number of groundwater wells shows that eastern Bangkok has the demand for water over the west, and the pumping of groundwater is a significant factor that causes land subsidence in the area.Keywords: Subsidence, InSAR, Radarsat-2, Bangkok


1968 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 308-309
Author(s):  
Mohammad Irshad Khan

It is alleged that the agricultural output in poor countries responds very little to movements in prices and costs because of subsistence-oriented produc¬tion and self-produced inputs. The work of Gupta and Majid is concerned with the empirical verification of the responsiveness of farmers to prices and marketing policies in a backward region. The authors' analysis of the respon¬siveness of farmers to economic incentives is based on two sets of data (concern¬ing sugarcane, cash crop, and paddy, subsistence crop) collected from the district of Deoria in Eastern U.P. (Utter Pradesh) a chronically foodgrain deficit region in northern India. In one set, they have aggregate time-series data at district level and, in the other, they have obtained data from a survey of five villages selected from 170 villages around Padrauna town in Deoria.


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