Predicting the future urban growth and it's impacts on the surrounding environment using urban simulation models: Case study of Ibb city – Yemen

Availability of a variety of urban growth models make model selection to be an important factor in urban simulation studies. In this regard, a comparative evaluation of available urban growth models helps to choose a suitable model for the study area. Thus, we selected three open-source simulation models namely FUTURES, SLEUTH and MOLUSCE to compare in their simplest state to provide a guidance for selection of an urban growth model for Colombo. The urban extent maps of 1997, 2005, 2008, 2014 and 2019 derived from Landsat imageries were used in calibration and validation of models. Models were implemented with the minimum required data with default settings. The simulation results indicate that the estimated quantity of urban growth (148.91 km2) during 2008-2019 by FUTURES model is matching closely with observed urban growth (127.37 km2) during 2008-2019. On the other hand, the SLEUTH model showed an overestimation (250.56 km2) and MOLUSCE showed an underestimation (77.11 km2). Further, the spatial accuracy of urban growth simulation of SLEUTH (Figure of Merit = 0.26) is relatively better in comparison to FUTURES (0.20) and MOLUSCE (0.20). Considering the tradeoff between computational overheads and obtained results, FUTURES could be a good choice over SLEUTH and MOLUSCE, when these models implemented in their simplest form with minimum required datasets. As a future work, we propose the incorporation of exclusion factor for potential surface generation to mitigate the overestimation of urban areas in SLUETH.

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A geospatial enquiry into the nature of contemporary urbanisation in a medium-sized city of Mangaluru, India

10.21203/rs.3.rs-465484/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Dhanaraj K ◽

Dasharatha P Angadi

Keyword(s):

Remote Sensing ◽

Urban Growth ◽

Spatial Proximity ◽

Spatial Expansion ◽

Small Cities ◽

Large Cities ◽

Urban Transition ◽

Basic Understanding ◽

The Future

Abstract The future of urban growth in India and the developing world is predicted to occur in small and medium-sized cities. Subtleties of such urbanisation need to be studied considering its implications for the future of urbanisation. The contemporary urbanisation is characterised by rural-urban transition and emerging small cities. An unprecedented increase in Census Towns (CTs) in India during the last decade has substantiated this fact. The growths of CTs and the medium-sized cities of India must be seen together. There is a dearth of studies that associates these two phenomena. Since the basic understanding of CTs and their dynamics is only based on studies of large cities, the current study attempts to bridge the gap in the literature through a case study of Mangaluru city. The study is conducted through a diversified method of remote sensing, GIS, statistical and spatial analysis. The results show up evidence of spatial expansion and rural-urban transition as emergent urbanisation at force in the region. The spatial proximity of CTs also adds to the spatiality of urban agglomeration in the region. This different form of locally driven urbanism of the contemporary period requires a different framework of participatory and technology-enabled smart planning for a sustainable future.

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Gendered differences in emigration and mobility perspectives among European researchers working abroad

MIGRATION LETTERS ◽

10.33182/ml.v7i1.178 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 7 (1) ◽

pp. 33-41 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Elisabeth Scheibelhofer

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

Qualitative Research ◽

Qualitative Study ◽

Social Relations ◽

The United States ◽

Research Strategy ◽

The Future ◽

Highly Skilled

This paper focuses on gendered mobilities of highly skilled researchers working abroad. It is based on an empirical qualitative study that explored the mobility aspirations of Austrian scientists who were working in the United States at the time they were interviewed. Supported by a case study, the paper demonstrates how a qualitative research strategy including graphic drawings sketched by the interviewed persons can help us gain a better understanding of the gendered importance of social relations for the future mobility aspirations of scientists working abroad.

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Urban growth, environmental degradation and geotechnologies: a case study in Brazil

International Journal of Ecodynamics ◽

10.2495/eco-v2-n1-48-56 ◽

2007 ◽

Vol 2 (1) ◽

pp. 48-56

Author(s):

S.M.F. Costa

Keyword(s):

Environmental Degradation ◽

Urban Growth

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The future urban growth under policies and its ecological effect in the Jing-Jin-Ji area, China

Heliyon ◽

10.1016/j.heliyon.2021.e06786 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 7 (4) ◽

pp. e06786

Author(s):

Nana Li ◽

Shiguang Miao ◽

Yaoting Wang

Keyword(s):

Urban Growth ◽

Ecological Effect ◽

The Future

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Urban Growth, Real Estate Development and Indigenous Property: Simulating the Expansion Process in the City of Temuco, Chile

ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information ◽

10.3390/ijgi10020101 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 10 (2) ◽

pp. 101

Author(s):

Francisco Maturana ◽

Mauricio Morales ◽

Fernando Peña-Cortés ◽

Marco A. Peña ◽

Carlos Vielma

Keyword(s):

Real Estate ◽

Urban Growth ◽

Urban Expansion ◽

Indigenous Communities ◽

Objective Evaluation ◽

Real Estate Development ◽

Territorial Planning ◽

The Future ◽

Urban Scenario ◽

The City

Urbanization is spreading across the world and beyond metropolitan areas. Medium-sized cities have also undergone processes of accelerated urban expansion, especially in Latin America, thanks to scant regulation or a complete lack thereof. Thus, understanding urban growth in the past and simulating it in the future has become a tool to raise its visibility and challenge territorial planners. In this work, we use Markov chains, cellular automata, multi-criteria multi-objective evaluation, and the determination of land use/land cover (LULC) to model the urban growth of the city of Temuco, Chile, a paradigmatic case because it has experienced powerful growth, where real estate development pressures coexist with a high natural value and the presence of indigenous communities. The urban scenario is determined for the years 2033 and 2049 based on the spatial patterns between 1985 and 2017, where the model shows the trend of expansion toward the northeast and significant development in the western sector of the city, making them two potential centers of expansion and conflict in the future given the heavy pressure on lands that are indigenous property and have a high natural value, aspects that need to be incorporated into future territorial planning instruments.

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A New Integrated Approach for Municipal Landfill Siting Based on Urban Physical Growth Prediction: A Case Study Mashhad Metropolis in Iran

Remote Sensing ◽

10.3390/rs13050949 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (5) ◽

pp. 949

Author(s):

Salman Qureshi ◽

Saman Nadizadeh Shorabeh ◽

Najmeh Neysani Samany ◽

Foad Minaei ◽

Mehdi Homaee ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Urban Growth ◽

Integrated Approach ◽

Physical Growth ◽

Support Vector ◽

Markov Chain Method ◽

Physical Expansion ◽

Hierarchy Process ◽

The City

Due to irregular and uncontrolled expansion of cities in developing countries, currently operational landfill sites cannot be used in the long-term, as people will be living in proximity to these sites and be exposed to unhygienic circumstances. Hence, this study aims at proposing an integrated approach for determining suitable locations for landfills while considering their physical expansion. The proposed approach utilizes the fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (FAHP) to weigh the sets of identified landfill location criteria. Furthermore, the weighted linear combination (WLC) approach was applied for the elicitation of the proper primary locations. Finally, the support vector machine (SVM) and cellular automation-based Markov chain method were used to predict urban growth. To demonstrate the applicability of the developed approach, it was applied to a case study, namely the city of Mashhad in Iran, where suitable sites for landfills were identified considering the urban growth in different geographical directions for this city by 2048. The proposed approach could be of use for policymakers, urban planners, and other decision-makers to minimize uncertainty arising from long-term resource allocation.

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Scoping Review of Thermal Comfort Research in Colombia

Buildings ◽

10.3390/buildings11060232 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (6) ◽

pp. 232

Author(s):

Juan Manuel Medina ◽

Carolina M. Rodriguez ◽

Maria Camila Coronado ◽

Lina Maria Garcia

Keyword(s):

Thermal Comfort ◽

Scoping Review ◽

Architectural Design ◽

Urban Climate ◽

Academic Community ◽

Additional Information ◽

The Future ◽

Art Research ◽

Occupant Satisfaction

The analysis of thermal comfort in buildings, energy consumption, and occupant satisfaction is crucial to influencing the architectural design methodologies of the future. However, research in these fields in developing countries is sectorised. Most times, the standards to study and assess thermal comfort such as ASHRAE Standard 55, EN 15251, and ISO 7730 are insufficient and not appropriate for the geographical areas of application. This article presents a scoping review of published work in Colombia, as a representative case study, to highlight the state-of-the-art, research trends, gaps, and potential areas for further development. It examines the amount, origin, extent, and content of research and peer-reviewed documentation over the last decades. The findings allow new insights regarding the preferred models and the evaluation tools that have been used to date and that are recommended to use in the future. It also includes additional information regarding the most and least studied regions, cities, and climates in the country. This work could be of interest for the academic community and policymakers in the areas related to indoor and urban climate management and energy efficiency.

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Taking Implementation Seriously in the Evaluation of Urban Growth Management Strategies: “Safeguarding the Future” of the Antwerp City-Region

Land ◽

10.3390/land10020159 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 10 (2) ◽

pp. 159

Author(s):

Clemens de Olde ◽

Stijn Oosterlynck

Keyword(s):

Urban Growth ◽

Urban Areas ◽

Growth Management ◽

Management Strategies ◽

Housing Prices ◽

Policy Formulation ◽

Land Values ◽

Implementation Phase ◽

The Future ◽

Urban Growth Management

Contemporary evaluations of urban growth management (UGM) strategies often take the shape of quantitative measurements of land values and housing prices. In this paper, we argue that it is of key importance that these evaluations also analyse the policy formulation and implementation phases of growth management strategies. It is in these phases that the institutions and discourses are (trans)formed in which UGM strategies are embedded. This will enable us to better understand the conditions for growth management policies’ success or failure. We illustrate this point empirically with the case of demarcating urban areas in the region of Flanders, Belgium. Using the Policy Arrangement Approach, the institutional dynamics and discursive meanings in this growth instrument’s formulation and implementation phase are unravelled. More specifically, we explain how the Flemish strategic spatial planning vision of restraining sprawl was transformed into one of accommodating growth in the demarcation of the Antwerp Metropolitan Area, epitomised by two different meanings of the phrase “safeguarding the future.” In conclusion, we argue that, in Antwerp, the demarcation never solidified into a stable policy arrangement, rendering it largely ineffective. We end by formulating three recommendations to contribute to future attempts at managing urban growth in Flanders.

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