scholarly journals Simulation of the interannual variations of tropospheric ozone over China: Roles of variations in meteorological parameters and anthropogenic emissions

2015 ◽  
Vol 122 ◽  
pp. 839-851 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sijia Lou ◽  
Hong Liao ◽  
Yang Yang ◽  
Qing Mu
Keyword(s):  
Tropospheric Ozone ◽  
Meteorological Parameters ◽  
Anthropogenic Emissions ◽  
Interannual Variations

scholarly journals Interannual variation, decadal trend, and future change in ozone outflow from East Asia

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (5) ◽  
pp. 3729-3747 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jia Zhu ◽  
Hong Liao ◽  
Yuhao Mao ◽  
Yang Yang ◽  
Hui Jiang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
East Asia ◽  
Meteorological Parameters ◽  
Anthropogenic Emissions ◽  
Interannual Variations ◽  
Zonal Winds ◽  
The Past ◽  
Decadal Trend ◽  
Tropospheric O3 ◽  
Ipcc Sres

Abstract. We examine the past and future changes in the O3 outflow from East Asia using a global 3-D chemical transport model, GEOS-Chem. The simulations of Asian O3 outflow for 1986–2006 are driven by the assimilated GEOS-4 meteorological fields, and those for 2000–2050 are driven by the meteorological fields archived by the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) 3 under the IPCC SRES A1B scenario. The evaluation of the model results against measurements shows that the GEOS-Chem model captures the seasonal cycles and interannual variations of tropospheric O3 concentrations fairly well with high correlation coefficients of 0.82–0.93 at four ground-based sites and 0.55–0.88 at two ozonesonde sites where observations are available. The increasing trends in surface-layer O3 concentrations in East Asia over the past 2 decades are captured by the model, although the modeled O3 trends have low biases. Sensitivity studies are conducted to examine the respective impacts of meteorological parameters and emissions on the variations in the outflow flux of O3. When both meteorological parameters and anthropogenic emissions varied from 1986–2006, the simulated Asian O3 outflow fluxes exhibited a statistically insignificant decadal trend; however, they showed large interannual variations (IAVs) with seasonal values of 4–9 % for the absolute percent departure from the mean (APDM) and an annual APDM value of 3.3 %. The sensitivity simulations indicated that the large IAVs in O3 outflow fluxes were mainly caused by variations in the meteorological conditions. The variations in meteorological parameters drove the IAVs in O3 outflow fluxes by altering the O3 concentrations over East Asia and by altering the zonal winds; the latter was identified to be the key factor, since the O3 outflow was highly correlated with zonal winds from 1986–2006. The simulations of the 2000–2050 changes show that the annual outflow flux of O3 will increase by 2.0, 7.9, and 12.2 % owing to climate change alone, emissions change alone, and changes in both climate and emissions, respectively. Therefore, climate change will aggravate the effects of the increases in anthropogenic emissions on future changes in the Asian O3 outflow. Future climate change is predicted to greatly increase the Asian O3 outflow in the spring and summer seasons as a result of the projected increases in zonal winds. The findings from the present study help us to understand the variations in tropospheric O3 in the downwind regions of East Asia on different timescales and have important implications for long-term air quality planning in the regions downwind of China, such as Japan and the US.

scholarly journals Simulation of the interannual variations of aerosols in China: role of variations in meteorological parameters

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (8) ◽  
pp. 11177-11219 ◽  
Author(s):  
Q. Mu ◽  
H. Liao
Keyword(s):  
Organic Carbon ◽  
Meteorological Parameters ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Specific Humidity ◽  
Anthropogenic Emissions ◽  
Interannual Variations ◽  
Chemical Transport Model ◽  
June July

Abstract. We used the nested grid version of the global three-dimensional Goddard Earth Observing System chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) to examine the interannual variations (IAVs) of aerosols over heavily polluted regions in China for years 2004–2012. The role of variations in meteorological parameters was quantified by a simulation with fixed anthropogenic emissions at year 2006 levels and changes in meteorological parameters over 2004–2012. Simulated PM2.5 (particles with a diameter of 2.5 μm or less) aerosol concentrations exhibited large IAVs in North China (NC, 32–42° N, 110–120° E), with regionally averaged absolute percent departure from the mean (APDM) values of 17, 14, 14, and 11% in December-January-February (DJF), March-April-May (MAM), June-July-August (JJA), and September-October-November (SON), respectively. Over South China (SC, 22–32° N, 110–120° E), the IAVs in PM2.5 were found to be the largest in JJA, with the regional mean APDM values of 14% in JJA and of about 9% in other seasons. Concentrations of PM2.5 over the Sichuan Basin (SCB, 27–33° N, 102–110° E) were simulated to have the smallest IAVs among the polluted regions examined in this work, with the APDM values of 8–9% in all seasons. All aerosol species (sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, black carbon, and organic carbon) were simulated to have the largest IAVs over NC in DJF, corresponding to the large variations in meteorological parameters over NC in this season. Process analyses were performed to identify the key meteorological parameters that determined the IAVs of different aerosol species in different regions. While the variations in temperature and specific humidity, which influenced the gas-phase formation of sulfate, jointly determined the IAVs of sulfate over NC in both DJF and JJA, wind (or convergence of wind) in DJF and precipitation in JJA were the dominant meteorological factors to influence IAVs of sulfate over SC and the SCB. The IAVs in temperature and specific humidity influenced gas-to-aerosol partitioning, which were the major factors that led to the IAVs of nitrate aerosol in China. The IAVs in wind and precipitation were found to drive the IAVs of organic carbon aerosol. We also compared the IAVs of aerosols simulated with variations in meteorological parameters alone with those simulated with variations in both meteorological parameters and anthropogenic emissions; the variations in meteorological fields were found to dominate the IAVs of aerosols in China.

scholarly journals Simulation of the interannual variations of aerosols in China: role of variations in meteorological parameters

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (18) ◽  
pp. 9597-9612 ◽  
Author(s):  
Q. Mu ◽  
H. Liao
Keyword(s):  
Organic Carbon ◽  
Meteorological Parameters ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Southern China ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Specific Humidity ◽  
Anthropogenic Emissions ◽  
Interannual Variations ◽  
Chemical Transport Model

Abstract. We used the nested grid version of the global three-dimensional Goddard Earth Observing System chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) to examine the interannual variations (IAVs) of aerosols over heavily polluted regions in China for years 2004–2012. The role of variations in meteorological parameters was quantified by a simulation with fixed anthropogenic emissions at year 2006 levels and changes in meteorological parameters over 2004–2012. Simulated PM2.5 (particles with a diameter of 2.5 μm or less) aerosol concentrations exhibited large IAVs in North China (NC; 32–42° N, 110–120° E), with regionally averaged absolute percent departure from the mean (APDM) values of 17, 14, 14, and 11% in December-January-February (DJF), March-April-May (MAM), June-July-August (JJA), and September-October-November (SON), respectively. Over South China (SC; 22–32° N, 110–120° E), the IAVs in PM2.5 were found to be the largest in JJA, with the regional mean APDM values of 14% in JJA and of about 9% in other seasons. The concentrations of PM2.5 over the Sichuan Basin (SCB; 27–33° N, 102–110° E) were simulated to have the smallest IAVs among the polluted regions examined in this work, with APDM values of 8–9% in all seasons. All aerosol species (sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, black carbon, and organic carbon) were simulated to have the largest IAVs over NC in DJF, corresponding to the large variations in meteorological parameters over NC in this season. Process analyses were performed to identify the key meteorological parameters that determined the IAVs of different aerosol species in different regions. While the variations in temperature and specific humidity, which influenced the gas-phase formation of sulfate, jointly determined the IAVs of sulfate over NC in both DJF and JJA, wind (or convergence of wind) in DJF and precipitation in JJA were the dominant meteorological factors to influence IAVs of sulfate over SC and the SCB. The IAVs in temperature and specific humidity influenced gas-to-aerosol partitioning, which were the major factors that led to the IAVs of nitrate aerosol in China. The IAVs in wind and precipitation were found to drive the IAVs of organic carbon aerosol. We also compared the IAVs of aerosols simulated with variations in meteorological parameters alone with those simulated with variations in anthropogenic emissions alone; the variations in meteorological fields were found to dominate the IAVs of aerosols in northern and southern China over 2004–2012. Considering that the IAVs in meteorological fields are mainly associated with natural variability in the climate system, the IAVs in aerosol concentrations driven by meteorological parameters have important implications for the effectiveness of short-term air quality control strategies in China.

scholarly journals TOAST 1.0: Tropospheric Ozone Attribution of Sources with Tagging for CESM 1.2.2

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (7) ◽  
pp. 2825-2840 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tim Butler ◽  
Aurelia Lupascu ◽  
Jane Coates ◽  
Shuai Zhu
Keyword(s):  
Tropospheric Ozone ◽  
Surface Ozone ◽  
Chemical Mechanism ◽  
System Model ◽  
Ozone Production ◽  
Anthropogenic Emissions ◽  
Source Attribution ◽  
Volatile Organic ◽  
Community Earth System Model ◽  
Northern Hemispheric

Abstract. A system for source attribution of tropospheric ozone produced from both NOx and volatile organic compound (VOC) precursors is described, along with its implementation in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) version 1.2.2 using CAM4. The user can specify an arbitrary number of tag identities for each NOx or VOC species in the model, and the tagging system rewrites the model chemical mechanism and source code to incorporate tagged tracers and reactions representing these tagged species, as well as ozone produced in the stratosphere. If the user supplies emission files for the corresponding tagged tracers, the model will produce tagged ozone tracers which represent the contribution of each of the tag identities to the modelled total tropospheric ozone. Our tagged tracers preserve Ox. The size of the tagged chemical mechanism scales linearly with the number of specified tag identities. Separate simulations are required for NOx and VOC tagging, which avoids the sharing of tag identities between NOx and VOC species. Results are presented and evaluated for both NOx and VOC source attribution. We show that northern hemispheric surface ozone is dominated year-round by anthropogenic emissions of NOx, but that the mix of corresponding VOC precursors changes over the course of the year; anthropogenic VOC emissions contribute significantly to surface ozone in winter–spring, while biogenic VOCs are more important in summer. The system described here can provide important diagnostic information about modelled ozone production, and could be used to construct source–receptor relationships for tropospheric ozone.

Impacts of increased anthropogenic emissions in Asia on tropospheric ozone and climate. A global 3-D model study

Tellus B ◽  
1996 ◽  
Vol 48 (1) ◽  
pp. 13-32 ◽  
Author(s):  
TERJE BERNTSEN ◽  
IVAR S. A. ISAKSEN ◽  
WEI-CHYUNG WANG ◽  
XIN-ZHONG LIANG
Keyword(s):  
Tropospheric Ozone ◽  
Anthropogenic Emissions ◽  
Model Study ◽  
D Model

scholarly journals Influence of future climate and cropland expansion on isoprene emissions and tropospheric ozone

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 1011-1024 ◽  
Author(s):  
O. J. Squire ◽  
A. T. Archibald ◽  
N. L. Abraham ◽  
D. J. Beerling ◽  
C. N. Hewitt ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Tropospheric Ozone ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Anthropogenic Emissions ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Dynamic Global Vegetation Model ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract. Over the 21st century, changes in CO2 levels, climate and land use are expected to alter the global distribution of vegetation, leading to changes in trace gas emissions from plants, including, importantly, the emissions of isoprene. This, combined with changes in anthropogenic emissions, has the potential to impact tropospheric ozone levels, which above a certain level are harmful to animals and vegetation. In this study we use a biogenic emissions model following the empirical parameterisation of the MEGAN model, with vegetation distributions calculated by the Sheffield Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (SDGVM) to explore a range of potential future (2095) changes in isoprene emissions caused by changes in climate (including natural land use changes), land use, and the inhibition of isoprene emissions by CO2. From the present-day (2000) value of 467 Tg C yr−1, we find that the combined impact of these factors could cause a net decrease in isoprene emissions of 259 Tg C yr−1 (55%) with individual contributions of +78 Tg C yr−1 (climate change), −190 Tg C yr−1 (land use) and −147 Tg C yr−1 (CO2 inhibition). Using these isoprene emissions and changes in anthropogenic emissions, a series of integrations is conducted with the UM-UKCA chemistry-climate model with the aim of examining changes in ozone over the 21st century. Globally, all combined future changes cause a decrease in the tropospheric ozone burden of 27 Tg (7%) from 379 Tg in the present-day. At the surface, decreases in ozone of 6–10 ppb are calculated over the oceans and developed northern hemispheric regions, due to reduced NOx transport by PAN and reductions in NOx emissions in these areas respectively. Increases of 4–6 ppb are calculated in the continental tropics due to cropland expansion in these regions, increased CO2 inhibition of isoprene emissions, and higher temperatures due to climate change. These effects outweigh the decreases in tropical ozone caused by increased tropical isoprene emissions with climate change. Our land use change scenario consists of cropland expansion, which is most pronounced in the tropics. The tropics are also where land use change causes the greatest increases in ozone. As such there is potential for increased crop exposure to harmful levels of ozone. However, we find that these ozone increases are still not large enough to raise ozone to such damaging levels.

scholarly journals Halogen chemistry reduces tropospheric O<sub>3</sub> radiative forcing

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 1557-1569 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tomás Sherwen ◽  
Mat J. Evans ◽  
Lucy J. Carpenter ◽  
Johan A. Schmidt ◽  
Loretta J. Mickley
Keyword(s):  
Tropospheric Ozone ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Observational Evidence ◽  
Anthropogenic Emissions ◽  
Transport Models ◽  
Model Calculations ◽  
Halogen Chemistry ◽  
Tropospheric O3 ◽  
Observational Record ◽  
Surface O3

Abstract. Tropospheric ozone (O3) is a global warming gas, but the lack of a firm observational record since the preindustrial period means that estimates of its radiative forcing (RFTO3) rely on model calculations. Recent observational evidence shows that halogens are pervasive in the troposphere and need to be represented in chemistry-transport models for an accurate simulation of present-day O3. Using the GEOS-Chem model we show that tropospheric halogen chemistry is likely more active in the present day than in the preindustrial. This is due to increased oceanic iodine emissions driven by increased surface O3, higher anthropogenic emissions of bromo-carbons, and an increased flux of bromine from the stratosphere. We calculate preindustrial to present-day increases in the tropospheric O3 burden of 113 Tg without halogens but only 90 Tg with, leading to a reduction in RFTO3 from 0.43 to 0.35 Wm−2. We attribute  ∼ 50 % of this reduction to increased bromine flux from the stratosphere,  ∼ 35 % to the ocean–atmosphere iodine feedback, and  ∼ 15 % to increased tropospheric sources of anthropogenic halogens. This reduction of tropospheric O3 radiative forcing due to halogens (0.087 Wm−2) is greater than that from the radiative forcing of stratospheric O3 (∼ 0.05 Wm−2). Estimates of RFTO3 that fail to consider halogen chemistry are likely overestimates (∼ 25 %).

scholarly journals Forecast of Hourly Tropospheric Ozone Concentration in Quang Ninh using MLP and SVM

2020 ◽  
Vol 36 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nguyen Thi Thu Phuong ◽  
Mac Duy Hung ◽  
Duong Thanh Nam ◽  
Nghiem Trung Dung
Keyword(s):  
Ozone Concentration ◽  
Atmospheric Pressure ◽  
Tropospheric Ozone ◽  
Meteorological Parameters ◽  
Correlation Coefficients ◽  
High Standard ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Observation Data ◽  
Quang Ninh ◽  
Ozone Levels

Support vector machine (SVM) and multilayer perceptron (MLP) were used to forecast hourly tropospheric ozone concentration at three locations of Quang Ninh, namely Cao Xanh, Uong Bi and Phuong Nam. Data used to train the models are the hourly concentrations of gaseous pollutants (O3, NO, NO2, CO) and meteorological parameters including wind direction, wind speed, temperature, atmospheric pressure, relative humidity measured in the 2016. Both models accurately forecast tropospheric ozone levels compared to the observation data. The correlation coefficients (r) of the models applied for the three locations range from 0.85 to 0.91. In addition, SVM exhibits a more accurate prediction than MLP, especially for those with large variations, i.e. high standard deviations.

scholarly journals Late-Spring and Summertime Tropospheric Ozone and NO<sub>2</sub> in Western Siberia and the Russian Arctic: Regional Model Evaluation and Sensitivities

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Thorp ◽  
Stephen R. Arnold ◽  
Richard J. Pope ◽  
Dominic V. Spracklen ◽  
Luke Conibear ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Dry Deposition ◽  
Tropospheric Ozone ◽  
Western Siberia ◽  
Surface Ozone ◽  
Late Spring ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Transport Sector ◽  
Anthropogenic Emissions ◽  
Negative Bias ◽  
Russian Arctic

Abstract. We use a regional chemistry transport model (WRF-Chem) in conjunction with surface observations of tropospheric ozone and Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) satellite retrievals of tropospheric column NO2 to evaluate processes controlling the regional distribution of tropospheric ozone over Western Siberia for late-spring and summer in 2011. This region hosts a range of anthropogenic and natural ozone precursor sources, and serves as a gateway for near-surface transport of Eurasian pollution to the Arctic. However, there is a severe lack of in-situ observations to constrain tropospheric ozone sources and sinks in the region. We show widespread negative bias in WRF-Chem tropospheric column NO2 when compared to OMI satellite observations from May – August, which is reduced when using ECLIPSE v5a emissions (FMB= -0.82 to -0.73) compared with the EDGAR-HTAP-2 emissions data (FMB= -0.80 to -0.70). Despite the large negative bias, the spatial correlations between model and observed NO2 columns suggest that the spatial pattern of NOx sources in the region is well represented. Based on ECLIPSE v5a emissions, we assess the influence of the two dominant anthropogenic emission sectors (transport and energy) and vegetation fires on surface NOx and ozone over Siberia and the Russian Arctic. Our results suggest regional ozone is more sensitive to anthropogenic emissions, particularly from the transport sector, and the contribution from fire emissions maximises in June and is largely confined to latitudes south of 60° N. Large contributions to surface ozone from energy emissions are simulated in April north of 60° N, due to emissions associated with oil and gas extraction. Ozone dry deposition fluxes from the model simulations show that the dominant ozone dry deposition sink in the region is to forest, averaging 6.0 Tg of ozone per month, peaking at 9.1 Tg of ozone deposition during June. The impact of fires on ozone dry deposition within the domain is small compared to anthropogenic emissions, and is negligible north of 60° N. Overall, our results suggest that surface ozone in the region is controlled by an interplay between seasonality in atmospheric transport patterns, vegetation dry deposition, and a dominance of transport and energy sector emissions.

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