Climate change and grassland management interactively influence the population dynamics of Bromus erectus (Poaceae)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julia Lemmer ◽  
Martin Andrzejak ◽  
Aldo Compagnoni ◽  
Tiffany M. Knight ◽  
Lotte Korell
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Grassland Management ◽  
Bromus Erectus

scholarly journals Effects of Infectious Diseases on Population Dynamics of Marine Organisms in Chesapeake Bay

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jerelle A. Jesse ◽  
M. Victoria Agnew ◽  
Kohma Arai ◽  
C. Taylor Armstrong ◽  
Shannon M. Hood ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Chesapeake Bay ◽  
Eastern Oyster ◽  
Marine Organisms ◽  
Ecosystem Dynamics ◽  
Climate Change Effects ◽  
Pathogen Dynamics ◽  
Growth And Reproduction

AbstractDiseases are important drivers of population and ecosystem dynamics. This review synthesizes the effects of infectious diseases on the population dynamics of nine species of marine organisms in the Chesapeake Bay. Diseases generally caused increases in mortality and decreases in growth and reproduction. Effects of diseases on eastern oyster (Crassostrea virginica) appear to be low in the 2000s compared to effects in the 1980s–1990s. However, the effects of disease were not well monitored for most of the diseases in marine organisms of the Chesapeake Bay, and few studies considered effects on growth and reproduction. Climate change and other anthropogenic effects are expected to alter host-pathogen dynamics, with diseases of some species expected to worsen under predicted future conditions (e.g., increased temperature). Additional study of disease prevalence, drivers of disease, and effects on population dynamics could improve fisheries management and forecasting of climate change effects on marine organisms in the Chesapeake Bay.

scholarly journals Contrasting effects of climate change on seasonal survival of a hibernating mammal

2020 ◽  
Vol 117 (30) ◽  
pp. 18119-18126 ◽  
Author(s):  
Line S. Cordes ◽  
Daniel T. Blumstein ◽  
Kenneth B. Armitage ◽  
Paul J. CaraDonna ◽  
Dylan Z. Childs ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Life History ◽  
Environmental Conditions ◽  
Temporal Trends ◽  
Life History Strategies ◽  
Environmental Drivers ◽  
Age Classes ◽  
History Of ◽  
Colorado Rocky Mountains

Seasonal environmental conditions shape the behavior and life history of virtually all organisms. Climate change is modifying these seasonal environmental conditions, which threatens to disrupt population dynamics. It is conceivable that climatic changes may be beneficial in one season but result in detrimental conditions in another because life-history strategies vary between these time periods. We analyzed the temporal trends in seasonal survival of yellow-bellied marmots (Marmota flaviventer) and explored the environmental drivers using a 40-y dataset from the Colorado Rocky Mountains (USA). Trends in survival revealed divergent seasonal patterns, which were similar across age-classes. Marmot survival declined during winter but generally increased during summer. Interestingly, different environmental factors appeared to drive survival trends across age-classes. Winter survival was largely driven by conditions during the preceding summer and the effect of continued climate change was likely to be mainly negative, whereas the likely outcome of continued climate change on summer survival was generally positive. This study illustrates that seasonal demographic responses need disentangling to accurately forecast the impacts of climate change on animal population dynamics.

scholarly journals Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Rangeland Productivity and Livestock Population Dynamics in Nkayi District, Zimbabwe

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (7) ◽  
pp. 2330
Author(s):  
Trinity S. Senda ◽  
Gregory A. Kiker ◽  
Patricia Masikati ◽  
Albert Chirima ◽  
Johan van Niekerk
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Population Dynamics ◽  
C3 Plants ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Herbaceous Layer ◽  
Livestock Population ◽  
Co2 Effects ◽  
Forested Areas ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Co2

Smallholder farmers in semi-arid areas depend on both cropping and livestock as the main sources of livelihoods. Rangeland productivity varies on both spatial and temporal scales and provides the major source of feed for livestock. Rangeland productivity is expected to decline with climate change thereby reducing livestock feed availability and consequently livelihoods that depend on livestock. This study was carried out to assess the impacts of climate change on rangeland productivity and consequently livestock population dynamics using a 30-year simulation modeling approach. The climate scenarios used in the simulations are built from the localized predictions by General Circulation Models (GCMs). The primary climate variables under consideration are rainfall (+/−7% change), carbon dioxide (CO2 up to 650 ppm) and temperature (+4 °C change). This was done by applying the SAVANNA ecosystem model which simulates rangeland processes and demographic responses of herbivores on a temporal and spatial scale using a weekly internal time step and monthly spatial and temporal outputs. The results show that rainfall levels of less than 600 mm/year have the largest negative effect on herbaceous biomass production. The amount of biomass from the woody layer does not change much during the year. The carbon dioxide (CO2) effects are more influential on the tree and shrub layers (C3 plants) than the herbaceous layer (C4 grasses). The CO2 effect was more dominant than the effects of rainfall and temperature. In the baseline simulations, the shrub plant layer increased significantly over 30 years while there is a three-fold increase in the woody plant layer (trees and shrubs) where biomass increased from a 1980 production to that of 2010. The biomass of the herbaceous layer was stable over the historical period (1980 to 2010) with values fluctuating between 200 and 400 g/m2. Grass green biomass has a variable distribution where most production occurred in the fields and cleared areas while lower levels of production were found in the forested areas. The spatial distribution of shrub green biomass was less directly linked to yearly rainfall. Shrub biomass was mostly found in forested areas, and it showed a steady increase in production. Cattle, donkey, and goat populations rose slowly from 1980 but the rise was disrupted by a dry period during the late 1980s to the early 1990s causing a decline in all populations primarily due to grass unavailability. The populations of cattle goats and donkeys started to rise again from 1995 onwards due to improvements in rainfall. Cattle and donkey populations were rising faster than that of goats while sheep population was not changing much for most of the simulation period, otherwise they declined significantly during the drought of 2002. Similar changes in simulated grass biomass (g/m2) were observed in almost all climate scenarios, except for the peak and low years. The livestock population simulation showed few variations in livestock population under all scenarios. The main conclusion from the study is that CO2 effects on rangeland productivity are much more dominant than the localized effects of rainfall and temperature. This has implications of favoring the growth of the tree and shrub layers over herbaceous layer, which meant that in the long run, the species that are able to use tree and shrub layers may be kept as a livelihood source as they will have a feed source.

scholarly journals Modelling the impact of climate change on the distribution and abundance of tsetse in Northern Zimbabwe

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Joshua Longbottom ◽  
Cyril Caminade ◽  
Harry S. Gibson ◽  
Daniel J. Weiss ◽  
Steve Torr ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Spatial Resolution ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Mechanistic Model ◽  
Tsetse Flies ◽  
Weather Station ◽  
Catch Data ◽  
Tsetse Population ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background Climate change is predicted to impact the transmission dynamics of vector-borne diseases. Tsetse flies (Glossina) transmit species of Trypanosoma that cause human and animal African trypanosomiasis. A previous modelling study showed that temperature increases between 1990 and 2017 can explain the observed decline in abundance of tsetse at a single site in the Mana Pools National Park of Zimbabwe. Here, we apply a mechanistic model of tsetse population dynamics to predict how increases in temperature may have changed the distribution and relative abundance of Glossina pallidipes across northern Zimbabwe. Methods Local weather station temperature measurements were previously used to fit the mechanistic model to longitudinal G. pallidipes catch data. To extend the use of the model, we converted MODIS land surface temperature to air temperature, compared the converted temperatures with available weather station data to confirm they aligned, and then re-fitted the mechanistic model using G. pallidipes catch data and air temperature estimates. We projected this fitted model across northern Zimbabwe, using simulations at a 1 km × 1 km spatial resolution, between 2000 to 2016. Results We produced estimates of relative changes in G. pallidipes mortality, larviposition, emergence rates and abundance, for northern Zimbabwe. Our model predicts decreasing tsetse populations within low elevation areas in response to increasing temperature trends during 2000–2016. Conversely, we show that high elevation areas (> 1000 m above sea level), previously considered too cold to sustain tsetse, may now be climatically suitable. Conclusions To our knowledge, the results of this research represent the first regional-scale assessment of temperature related tsetse population dynamics, and the first high spatial-resolution estimates of this metric for northern Zimbabwe. Our results suggest that tsetse abundance may have declined across much of the Zambezi Valley in response to changing climatic conditions during the study period. Future research including empirical studies is planned to improve model accuracy and validate predictions for other field sites in Zimbabwe.

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