A Spatio–Temporal investigation of risk factors for aflatoxin contamination of corn in southern Georgia, USA using geostatistical methods

Abstract Mycotoxins are toxins produced by fungi which are harmful to humans and animals and can contaminate staple crops. Aflatoxins are particularly toxic and can cause liver cancer so the permitted levels in foodstuffs are legislated. Batches of grain where average aflatoxin concentrations are higher than legislative thresholds are rejected or sold at a lesser price for a more limited range of use. High maximum temperatures and low rainfall have been shown to increase contamination. For corn grown in Southern Georgia, USA, June weather is particularly important as this coincides with the sensitive mid-silk growth stage. An AFs survey and weather data have been used to show the association between AFs and June weather [1]. The risk factors were June maximum temperatures >33˚C and June rainfall <50mm, the 30-year normals for the region. Future climate data were estimated for each year (2000-2100) and county in southern GA using the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emissions scenarios and weather risk factors were calculated. The number of counties with June maximum temperatures >33˚C and rainfall <50mm increased significantly between 30-year time periods. The percentage of years that counties exceeded thresholds was greater for the RCP 8.5 than the RCP 4.5 scenario. A change in the spatial distribution of high-risk counties was seen over time. The results suggest the need for changes in the where crops are grown or the employment of adaptation strategies such as planting more resistant varieties, improving irrigation and planting earlier to avoid increasingly frequent rejection of grain batches. There were significantly more counties with June maximum temperatures >33˚C and June rainfall <50mm in 2010-2040 compared to 2000-2030. This suggests that adaptation strategies should be employed as soon as possible.

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Determining future aflatoxin contamination risk scenarios for corn in Southern Georgia, USA using spatio-temporal modelling and future climate simulations

Scientific Reports ◽

10.1038/s41598-021-92557-6 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Ruth Kerry ◽

Ben Ingram ◽

Esther Garcia-Cela ◽

Naresh Magan ◽

Brenda V. Ortiz ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Strong Association ◽

Growth Period ◽

Aflatoxin Contamination ◽

Adaptation Strategies ◽

Future Climate ◽

Climate Data ◽

Emissions Scenarios ◽

Rcp 8.5 ◽

Maximum Temperatures ◽

Southern Georgia

AbstractAflatoxins (AFs) are produced by fungi in crops and can cause liver cancer. Permitted levels are legislated and batches of grain are rejected based on average concentrations. Corn grown in Southern Georgia (GA), USA, which experiences drought during the mid-silk growth period in June, is particularly susceptible to infection by Aspergillus section Flavi species which produce AFs. Previous studies showed strong association between AFs and June weather. Risk factors were developed: June maximum temperatures > 33 °C and June rainfall < 50 mm, the 30-year normals for the region. Future climate data were estimated for each year (2000–2100) and county in southern GA using the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emissions scenarios. The number of counties with June maximum temperatures > 33 °C and rainfall < 50 mm increased and then plateaued for both emissions scenarios. The percentage of years thresholds were exceeded was greater for RCP 8.5 than RCP 4.5. The spatial distribution of high-risk counties changed over time. Results suggest corn growth distribution should be changed or adaptation strategies employed like planting resistant varieties, irrigating and planting earlier. There were significantly more counties exceeding thresholds in 2010–2040 compared to 2000–2030 suggesting that adaptation strategies should be employed as soon as possible.

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Application of geostatistical methods in spatio-temporal modelling of temperature changes of UCG experimental trial

Measurement ◽

10.1016/j.measurement.2020.108826 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 171 ◽

pp. 108826

Author(s):

Marek Laciak ◽

Ladislav Vízi ◽

Ján Kačur ◽

Milan Durdán ◽

Patrik Flegner

Keyword(s):

Temperature Changes ◽

Geostatistical Methods ◽

Experimental Trial ◽

Temporal Modelling ◽

Spatio Temporal

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RISK FACTORS AND PROTECTION FACTORS FOR THE COVID-19 EPIDEMIC AND VACCINATION AS A POSSIBLE MEANS OF CONTROLLING THE EPIDEMIC

International scientific journal Internauka ◽

10.25313/2520-2057-2020-20-6718 ◽

2017 ◽

Author(s):

Oksana Romaniv ◽

◽

Bohdan Klyapchuk ◽

Keyword(s):

Risk Factors ◽

Economic Integration ◽

Herd Immunity ◽

Vaccination Program ◽

Special Method ◽

Vaccination Programs ◽

Regional Dynamics ◽

Spatio Temporal ◽

The Impact

A study of the impact of especially contextual on COVID-19 factors of the epidemic (geopolitical, climatic, socio-economic integration, social, including religious, demographic and others) was conducted. The regional dynamics of the epidemic in the Scandinavian countries was analyzed. The spatio-temporal changes of the epidemic indicators in the conditions of loyalty to risk factors (Sweden) and in the conditions of controlled risks (in other countries of the Scandinavian region) were revealed. The current research of scientists on the formation of herd immunity in the population with and without vaccination programs was generalized. The article evaluated the quality of the vaccination program in Ukraine. The threshold indicator "herd immunity" and the number of months to achieve herd immunity in Ukraine without vaccination were calculated according to a special method.

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Meta-analytic evaluation for the spatio-temporal patterns of the associations between common risk factors and type 2 diabetes in mainland China

Medicine ◽

10.1097/md.0000000000015581 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 98 (20) ◽

pp. e15581 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Ting Zhou ◽

Xiang Liu ◽

Yuanyuan Liu ◽

Xiaosong Li

Keyword(s):

Risk Factors ◽

Type 2 Diabetes ◽

Mainland China ◽

Temporal Patterns ◽

Analytic Evaluation ◽

Common Risk Factors ◽

Spatio Temporal

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Spatio-temporal patterns ofCampylobactercolonization in Danish broilers

Epidemiology and Infection ◽

10.1017/s0950268812001446 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 141 (5) ◽

pp. 997-1008 ◽

Cited By ~ 8

Author(s):

S. CHOWDHURY ◽

G. E. THEMUDO ◽

M. SANDBERG ◽

A. K. ERSBØLL

Keyword(s):

Risk Factors ◽

Risk Factor ◽

Temporal Distribution ◽

Spatial And Temporal Distribution ◽

Safety Measures ◽

High Prevalence ◽

Spatial Dependencies ◽

Temporal Occurrence ◽

Spatio Temporal ◽

Range Of Influence

SUMMARYDespite a number of risk-factor studies in different countries, the epidemiology ofCampylobactercolonization in broilers, particularly spatial dependencies, is still not well understood. A series of analyses (visualization and exploratory) were therefore conducted in order to obtain a better understanding of the spatial and temporal distribution ofCampylobacterin the Danish broiler population. In this study, we observed a non-random temporal occurrence ofCampylobacter, with high prevalence during summer and low during winter. Significant spatio-temporal clusters were identified in the same areas in the summer months from 2007 to 2009. Range of influence between broiler farms were estimated at distances of 9·6 km and 13·5 km in different years. Identification of areas and time with greater risk indicates variable presence of risk factors with space and time. Implementation of safety measures on farms within high-risk clusters during summer could have an impact in reducing prevalence.

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An Analysis on the Spatio-temporal Heterogeneity of Real Transaction Price of Apartment in Seoul Using the Geostatistical Methods

Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information System ◽

10.7319/kogsis.2016.24.4.075 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 24 (4) ◽

pp. 75-81 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Jung Hee Kim

Keyword(s):

Temporal Heterogeneity ◽

Geostatistical Methods ◽

Spatio Temporal ◽

Transaction Price

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Spatio-Temporal Trends and Risk Factors for Shigella from 2001 to 2011 in Jiangsu Province, People's Republic of China

PLoS ONE ◽

10.1371/journal.pone.0083487 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 9 (1) ◽

pp. e83487 ◽

Cited By ~ 22

Author(s):

Fenyang Tang ◽

Yuejia Cheng ◽

Changjun Bao ◽

Jianli Hu ◽

Wendong Liu ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Risk Factors ◽

Temporal Trends ◽

Jiangsu Province ◽

People’S Republic Of China ◽

People's Republic Of China ◽

Republic Of China ◽

Spatio Temporal

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Bivariate spatiotemporal disease mapping of cancer of the breast and cervix uteri among Iranian women

Geospatial health ◽

10.4081/gh.2018.645 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 13 (1) ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Mehdi Raei ◽

Volker Johann Schmid ◽

Behzad Mahaki

Keyword(s):

Breast Cancer ◽

Risk Factors ◽

Annual Reports ◽

Cervix Uteri ◽

Iranian Women ◽

Incidence Data ◽

Shared Component ◽

Spatio Temporal ◽

Shared Risk ◽

Cancer Incidence Data

Cervical cancer in women is one of the most common cancers and breast cancer has grown dramatically in recent years. The purpose of this study was to map the incidence of breast and cervix uteri cancer among Iranian women over a 6-year period (2004-2009) searching for trend changes and risk factors. Cancer incidence data were extracted from the annual reports of the National Cancer Registry in Iran. Hierarchical Bayesian models, including random spatial and temporal effects was utilized together with bivariate, spatio-temporal shared component modelling. The provinces Tehran, Isfahan, Mazandaran and Gilan were found to have the highest relative risk (RR) of breast cancer, while the highest RR of cervix uteri cancer was observed in Tehran, Golestan, Khuzestan and Khorasan Razavi. Shared risk factors (smoking component) between the two cancers were seen to have the highest influence in Tehran, Khorasan Razavi, Yazd, Isfahan, Golestan, Khuzestan, Fars and Mazandaran, while the least were observed in Kohgiluyeh Boyerahmad. Apparent differences and distinctions between high-risk and low-risk provinces reveal a pattern of obvious dispersion for these cancers in Iran that should be considered when allocating healthcare resources and services in different areas.

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