scholarly journals Adaptive ensemble models for medium-term forecasting of water inflow when planning electricity generation under climate change

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pavel Matrenin ◽  
Murodbek Safaraliev ◽  
Stepan Dmitriev ◽  
Sergey Kokin ◽  
Bahtiyor Eshchanov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Electricity Generation ◽  
Water Inflow ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Ensemble Models

scholarly journals Ensemble models on palaeoclimate to predict India's groundwater challenge

2013 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Partha Sarathi Datta
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Humid Climate ◽  
Ensemble Models ◽  
North West ◽  
The Past ◽  
The North ◽  
14C Age

In many parts of the world, freshwater crisis is largely due to increasing water consumption and pollution by rapidly growing population and aspirations for economic development, but, ascribed usually to the climate. However, limited understanding and knowledge gaps in the factors controlling climate and uncertainties in the climate models are unable to assess the probable impacts on water availability in tropical regions. In this context, review of ensemble models on δ18O and δD in rainfall and groundwater, 3H- and 14C- ages of groundwater and 14C- age of lakes sediments helped to reconstruct palaeoclimate and long-term recharge in the North-west India; and predict future groundwater challenge. The annual mean temperature trend indicates both warming/cooling in different parts of India in the past and during 1901–2010. Neither the GCMs (Global Climate Models) nor the observational record indicates any significant change/increase in temperature and rainfall over the last century, and climate change during the last 1200 yrs BP. In much of the North-West region, deep groundwater renewal occurred from past humid climate, and shallow groundwater renewal from limited modern recharge over the past decades. To make water management to be more responsive to climate change, the gaps in the science of climate change need to be bridged.

Oil will drive record Guyana growth again in 2022

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
National Development ◽  
Oil Industry ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Development Plans ◽  
The Government ◽  
Wage Increases ◽  
Oil And Gas Sector

Significance As in 2020 and 2021, this projected growth will be driven by the ongoing expansion of the oil and gas sector, and related investment and state revenues. These rising revenues will support the government’s ambitious national development plans, which include both increased social and infrastructure spending. Impacts The government will prioritise enhancing the oil and gas investment framework. Investment into joint oil and gas infrastructure with Suriname will benefit the growing oil industry in both countries. The expansionary fiscal policy may lead to a rise in inflation, leading to further calls for wage increases. In the medium term, strong growth in the oil and gas sector could lead to increased climate change activism in the country.

Greenhouse Gas Emissions Calculation Methodology in Thermal Power Plants: Case Study of Iran and Comparison With Canada

2008 ◽  
Author(s):  
Farshid Zabihian ◽  
Alan S. Fung
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Gas Turbines ◽  
Electricity Generation ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Thermal Power ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
Thermal Power Plants

Nowadays, the global climate change has been a worldwide concern and the greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions are considered as the primary cause of that. The United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) divided countries into two groups: Annex I Parties and Non-Annex I Parties. Since Iran and all other countries in the Middle East are among Non-Annex I Parties, they are not required to submit annual GHG inventory report. However, the global climate change is a worldwide phenomenon so Middle Eastern countries should be involved and it is necessary to prepare such a report at least unofficially. In this paper the terminology and the methods to calculate GHG emissions will first be explained and then GHG emissions estimates for the Iranian power plants will be presented. Finally the results will be compared with GHG emissions from the Canadian electricity generation sector. The results for the Iranian power plants show that in 2005 greenhouse gas intensity for steam power plants, gas turbines and combined cycle power plants were 617, 773, and 462 g CO2eq/kWh, respectively with the overall intensity of 610 g CO2eq/kWh for all thermal power plants. This GHG intensity is directly depend on efficiency of power plants. Whereas, in 2004 GHG intensity for electricity generation sector in Canada for different fuels were as follows: Coal 1010, refined petroleum products 640, and natural gas 523 g CO2eq/kWh, which are comparable with same data for Iran. For average GHG intensity in the whole electricity generation sector the difference is much higher: Canada 222 vs. Iran 610g CO2eq/kWh. The reason is that in Canada a considerable portion of electricity is generated by hydro-electric and nuclear power plants in which they do not emit significant amount of GHG emissions. The average GHG intensity in electricity generation sector in Iran between 1995 and 2005 experienced 13% reduction. While in Canada at the same period of time there was 21% increase. However, the results demonstrate that still there are great potentials for GHG emissions reduction in Iran’s electricity generation sector.

Changes in extreme surface solar radiation in EURO-CORDEX Regional Climate Models

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Blanka Bartok
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Power Generation ◽  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Solar Energy ◽  
Electricity Generation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Surface Solar Radiation ◽  
The Impact

<p>As solar energy share is showing a significant growth in the European electricity generation system, assessments regarding long-term variation of this variable related to climate change are becoming more and more relevant for this sector. Several studies analysed the impact of climate change on the solar energy sector in Europe (Jerez et al, 2015) finding light impact (-14%; +2%) in terms of mean surface solar radiation. The present study focuses on extreme values, namely on the distribution of low surface solar radiation (overcast situation) and high surface solar radiation (clear sky situation), since the frequencies of these situations have high impact on electricity generation.</p><p>The study considers 11 high-resolution (0.11 deg) bias-corrected climate projections from the EURO-CORDEX ensemble with 5 Global Climate Models (GCMs) downscaled by 6 Regional Climate Models (RCMs).</p><p>Changes in extreme surface solar radiation frequencies show different regional patterns over Europe.</p><p>The study also includes a case study determining the changes in solar power generation induced by the extreme situations.</p><p> </p><p> </p><p>Jerez et al (2015): The impact of climate change on photovoltaic power generation in Europe, Nature Communications 6(1):10014, 10.1038/ncomms10014</p><p> </p>

scholarly journals Future Changes in Precipitation and Drought Characteristics over Bangladesh Under CMIP5 Climatological Projections

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 2219 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kamruzzaman ◽  
Jang ◽  
Cho ◽  
Hwang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
21St Century ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Northern Region ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
Drought Characteristics ◽  
The Future ◽  
Northwestern Region

: The impacts of climate change on precipitation and drought characteristics over Bangladesh were examined by using the daily precipitation outputs from 29 bias-corrected general circulation models (GCMs) under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. A precipitation-based drought estimator, namely, the Effective Drought Index (EDI), was applied to quantify the characteristics of drought events in terms of the severity and duration. The changes in drought characteristics were assessed for the beginning (2010–2039), middle (2040–2069), and end of this century (2070–2099) relative to the 1976–2005 baseline. The GCMs were limited in regard to forecasting the occurrence of future extreme droughts. Overall, the findings showed that the annual precipitation will increase in the 21st century over Bangladesh; the increasing rate was comparatively higher under the RCP8.5 scenario. The highest increase in rainfall is expected to happen over the drought-prone northern region. The general trends of drought frequency, duration, and intensity are likely to decrease in the 21st century over Bangladesh under both RCP scenarios, except for the maximum drought intensity during the beginning of the century, which is projected to increase over the country. The extreme and medium-term drought events did not show any significant changes in the future under both scenarios except for the medium-term droughts, which decreased by 55% compared to the base period during the 2070s under RCP8.5. However, extreme drought days will likely increase in most of the cropping seasons for the different future periods under both scenarios. The spatial distribution of changes in drought characteristics indicates that the drought-vulnerable areas are expected to shift from the northwestern region to the central and the southern region in the future under both scenarios due to the effects of climate change.

Geothermal drives Kenya power sector boost

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Electricity Generation ◽  
Dominant Role ◽  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
Power Sector ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Grid Systems ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
Domestic Power

Subject Kenya power outlook. Significance The government's geothermal generation programme is driving a structural change in the power sector. Plans are for electricity generation to roughly double to 3,000 megawatts (MW) over the next few years, with hydroelectricity losing its dominant role. Kenya's medium-term economic growth prospects turn on the success of the government's rising spending on infrastructure investment in the energy and transport sectors. Impacts Focus on industry sources (diesal, gas, coal) obscures the dominant role of bio-energy (firewood, charcoal) in the energy mix. Increasing the role for natural gas in domestic power sectors will be pushed by regional governments with new offshore finds. Policymakers will continue to advocate the efficacy of mini grid or off-grid systems to augment the limited reach of 'national' grids.

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