Are forecasting competitions data representative of the reality?

2020 ◽  
Vol 36 (1) ◽  
pp. 37-53 ◽  
Author(s):  
Evangelos Spiliotis ◽  
Andreas Kouloumos ◽  
Vassilios Assimakopoulos ◽  
Spyros Makridakis
Keyword(s):  
Author(s):  
Angélica Felicidade Guião Marcato Costa ◽  
João Alexandre Paschoalin Filho ◽  
Tatiana Tucunduva Philipi Cortese ◽  
Brenda Chaves Coelho Leite

This research aimed at comparing the thermal performance provided in experimental modules, one of which was performed with conventional cover, made of asbestos cement tiles; an another with green cover. The structure of the studied modules was executed using Light Steel Frame technique. As an experimental research, modules were built in a wide place, without the interference of shading. Instruments were installed in the inner part of the modules to measure the following data: air temperature, relative humidity. From the collected data, representative episodes have been chosen for the studies that aimed to compare the comfort provided by both modules, built with different roofs. As result, it was verified that the module with green roof had better performance than the module covered with asbestos cement tile in all selected episodes. The module covered with green roof maintained lower internal temperature variation throughout the days, indicating that the green roof has characteristic thermal insulation, reducing the heat flow from the roof.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mitchell D Clement ◽  
Nikolas Logan ◽  
Mark D Boyer

Abstract GPECnet is a densely connected neural network that has been trained on GPEC data, to predict the plasma stability, neoclassical toroidal viscosity (NTV) torque, and optimized 3D coil current distributions for desired NTV torque profiles. Using NTV torque, driven by non-axisymmetric field perturbations in a tokamak, can be vital in optimizing pedestal performance by controlling the rotation profile in both the core, to ensure tearing stability, and the edge, to avoid edge localized modes (ELMs). The Generalized Perturbed Equilibrium Code (GPEC) software package can be used to calculate the plasma stability to 3D perturbations and the NTV torque profile generated by applied 3D magnetic fields. These calculations, however, involve complex integrations over space and energy distributions, which takes time to compute. Initially, GPECnet has been trained solely on data representative of the quiescent H-mode (QH) scenario, in which neutral beams are often balanced and toroidal rotation is low across the plasma profile. This work provides the foundation for active control of the rotation shear using a combination of beams and 3D fields for robust and high performance QH mode operation.


2018 ◽  
Vol 1 ◽  
pp. 1-36
Author(s):  
Faisal Anees ◽  
Shujahat Haider Hashmi ◽  
Muhammad Asad

Technical analysis is widely accepted tool in professional place which is frequently used for investment decisions. Technical analysis beliefs that there exist patterns and trends and by capturing trends and patterns one can bless with above average profits. We test two technical strategies: Moving averages and Trading Range to question, either these techniques can yield profitable returns with the help of historical data. Representative daily indices of Four countries namely Pakistan, India, Srilanka, Bangladesh ranging from 1997 to 2011 have been examined. In case of Moving Average Rule, both simple and exponential averages have been examined to test eleven different short term and long term rules with and without band condition. Our results delivered that buy signals generate consistent above average returns for the all sub periods and sell signals generate lower returns than the normal returns. Intriguing observation is that Exponential average generates higher returns than the Simple Average. The results of Trading Range Break strategy are parallel with Moving average Method. However, Trading Range Strategy found not to give higher average higher return when compared with Moving Averages Rules and degree of volatility in returns is higher when compared with moving Average rule. In attempt to conclude, there exist patterns and trends that yield above average and below average returns which justify the validity of technical analysis.


1959 ◽  
Vol 3 (04) ◽  
pp. 11-16
Author(s):  
M.L. Sellers ◽  
J.Harvey Evans

This paper reports an attempt to find satisfactory expressions for transverse bulkhead plating thickness in meaningful mathematical terms including all the most important parameters. In the investigations on which it is based, numerous theoretical solutions were used, some of which included the effects of membrane stresses and plastic behavior. These were related to the requirements of classification societies and other data representative of satisfactory service experience. The results are expressed as simple semiempirical formulations based on elasticity theory.


1981 ◽  
Author(s):  
C M Chesney ◽  
D D Pifer

PGI2,which increases platelet cAMP(Prostaglandins 13: 389,1977),is a potent inhibitor of aggregation and secretion .We stidued the time course of the same return of platelet function after exposure of platelets to PGI2.Sepharose 2B columns were equilibrated with Tyrode’s albumin buffer, pH7.5 (no Ca2+) containing PGI2 (534nM). Platelet rich plasma was applied and eluted with the same buffer. The filtered platelets(GFP) were then subsampled hourly after elution from the column. Fibrinogen was added to finel concentration of 1.7mg/ml. Platelet aggregation(PA) and release of 14C serotonin (5HT),platelet factor 4(PF4), and factor V (FV) were assayed after stimulation of the platelet by collagen(C), ADP,epinephrine(E), arachidonic acid(AA) and ionophore A23187(I). Data representative of 5 separate studies follow.I(20μg/ml) induced PA was 76%(Ohr),52%(1hr) and 61%(2hr and beyond). Release of 5HT, FV,and PF4 were 60%,1.89u,and 7.97 yg/10 pit, respectively, at time 0 and increased progressively, reaching a plateau at 2 hr. AA(500μg/ml) was 10%(0hr),30%(2hr),68%(3hr) and 8%(4hr). Release of 5HT paralleled PA but release of FV and PF4 remained suppressed for 4 hrs. In contrast α-granule (PF4 and FV)release by C(μg/ml)increased as PA increased while dense granule secretion remained suppressed. PA as well as a and dense granule secretion by ADP (10μM) were minimal during 4 hrs. PA and FV secretion by E (55μM) also remain inhibited for 4 hrs. In spite of this normal dense granule release occurred initially and declined progressively over 4 hours.


2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (Supplement_2) ◽  
pp. S310-S311 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olga Lomovskaya ◽  
Jill Lindley ◽  
Debora Rubio-Aparicio ◽  
Kirk J Nelson ◽  
Mariana Castanheira

Abstract Background QPX7728 (QPX) is a novel broad-spectrum boron-containing inhibitor of serine- and metallo-β-lactamases (MBLs). We evaluated the in vitro activity of QPX combined with several β-lactams against carbapenem-resistant AB (CRAB) and PSA clinical isolates with varying β-lactam resistance mechanisms. Methods A total of 503 CRAB (meropenem [MEM] MIC ≥8 µg/mL) and 762 PSA clinical isolates were tested by the reference broth microdilution method against β-lactams alone and combined with QPX (4 µg/mL and 8 µg/mL). PSA isolates were selected to represent the normal distribution of MEM, ceftazidime–avibactam (CAZ-AVI), and ceftolozane-tazobactam (TOL-TAZ) resistance according to 2017 surveillance data (representative panel). Additionally, 262 PSA isolates that were either nonsusceptible (NS) to MEM (MIC, ≥4 µg/mL) or to TOL-TAZ (MIC, ≥8 µg/mL), or resistant (R) to CAZ-AVI (MIC, ≥16 µg/mL) (challenge panel) were also tested. Within this 262 strain challenge set, 56 strains carried MBLs and the majority also had nonfunctional OprD. Results Against CRAB, QPX at 4 and 8 µg/mL increased the potency of all β-lactams tested. MEM-QPX was the most potent combination (table) displaying MIC50/MIC90 at 1/8 and 0.5/4 µg/mL with QPX at fixed 4 and 8 µg/mL, respectively. Susceptibility (S) to MEM was restored in >95% of strains. Against the 500 PSA from the representative panel, S for all QPX combinations was >90%. For the challenge panel, TOL-QPX and piperacillin (PIP)-QPX were the most potent combinations, restoring S in 76–77% of strains. TOL-QPX and MEM-QPX or cefepime (FEP)-QPX restored the MIC values to S rates when applying the CLSI breakpoint for the compound alone (comparison purposes only) in ~90% and ~75% of non-MBL-producing strains, respectively, vs. 60–70% for TOL-TAZ and CAZ-AVI. PIP-QPX reduce the MIC values to S values for PIP-TAZ in ~60% of MBL-producing strains vs. 20–30% and 3–7% for other QPX combinations and non-QPX tested combinations, respectively. Conclusion Combinations of QPX with various β-lactam antibiotics displayed potent activity against CRAB and resistant PSA isolates and warrant further investigation. Disclosures All authors: No reported disclosures.


Author(s):  
Ouadiaa Barrou ◽  
Asma Karama ◽  
E. K. Lakhal ◽  
Olivier Bernard ◽  
Marie-Noelle Pons ◽  
...  

The complete BSM1 model is recognized as representative of activated sludge plants. However, its large number of states may render it inadequate for development of state observers and for control. Thus, a reduced model has been developed for the two main sections of the plant, the anoxic and aerobic reactors. Concepts of model reduction of biological models based on the analysis developed by Bernard (Bernard2005a, Bernard2005b) have been used. The output data have been obtained by simulating the inlet by data representative of dry weather. After transformation and treatment of the data, it has been shown that a kinetic model reduced to two reactions is able to represent 80% of the total variance. The pseudo-stoichiometric coefficients have been estimated and the pseudo reaction scheme has been validated with respect to the actual concentrations at the outlet of a considered section. The dynamics are generally well represented by the reduced model.


2014 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
pp. A207
Author(s):  
E. Gemmen ◽  
L. Parmenter ◽  
A.B. Mendelsohn

2021 ◽  
Vol Publish Ahead of Print ◽  
Author(s):  
Kimberly R. Porter ◽  
Richard L. Illgen ◽  
Bryan D. Springer ◽  
Kevin J. Bozic ◽  
Scott M. Sporer ◽  
...  

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