Tobacco sales prohibition and teen smoking

The paper measures the cross-category spillover effects of a retailer changing its assortment at the extensive margin (by dropping an entire category from its portfolio) on the outcomes for its rivals in the industry.

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The EVALI outbreak and tobacco sales in the USA, 2014–2020

Tobacco Control ◽

10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2021-056807 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. tobaccocontrol-2021-056807

Author(s):

Alex C Liber ◽

Zachary Cahn ◽

Megan C Diaz ◽

Emily Donovan ◽

Donna Vallone ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Electronic Cigarettes ◽

State Level ◽

Product Distribution ◽

Us States ◽

Regulatory Policies ◽

Tobacco Sales ◽

Panel Regressions ◽

The Usa ◽

The Impact ◽

Total Sales

BackgroundThe E-cigarette, or Vaping Product-Use Associated Lung Injury (EVALI) Outbreak of 2019 hospitalised thousands and killed dozens of people in the USA and raised perceptions of the dangers posed to health by electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes). These illnesses along with continued increases in youth vaping rates lead to the passage of many state and federal laws intended to curtail the sale of flavoured e-cigarettes. Little is known about the impact of these events on US e-cigarette and cigarette retail sales.MethodsUsing Nielsen Scantrack sales data from January 2014 to January 2020 for 23 US states, we evaluate the effect of the EVALI outbreak. First-differenced state-panel regressions tracking unit sales of total-level and category-level e-cigarettes and cigarette sales controlling for price, Tobacco 21 policy coverage, product distribution, seasonality, EVALI-attributable deaths, and state-level e-cigarette policies affecting the availability of e-cigarettes (non-tobacco flavoured and total) were employed.ResultsDollar sales of e-cigarettes declined 29% from their pre-EVALI peak by January 2020. Total sales of e-cigarettes declined in response to EVALI deaths and the total e-cigarette sales ban put in place in Massachusetts adopted in its wake. Cigarette sales were largely unchanged by either the direct or indirect policy effects of the EVALI outbreak, except for in Massachusetts, where cigarette sales—particularly those smoked by young people—rose temporarily after a total ban on e-cigarette sales.ConclusionSales of e-cigarettes declined in response to the EVALI outbreak and from the most restrictive regulatory policies that were adopted in response, while sales of cigarettes were affected less.

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Sources of flavoured e-cigarettes among California youth and young adults: associations with local flavoured tobacco sales restrictions

Tobacco Control ◽

10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2020-056455 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. tobaccocontrol-2020-056455

Author(s):

Shivani Mathur Gaiha ◽

Lisa Henriksen ◽

Bonnie Halpern-Felsher ◽

Todd Rogers ◽

Ashley L Feld ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Young Adult ◽

Online Survey ◽

Multilevel Models ◽

Individual Characteristics ◽

Age Group ◽

The Past ◽

Tobacco Sales ◽

Youth And Young Adults ◽

Local Law ◽

Online Sources

PurposeThis study compares access to flavoured JUUL and other e-cigarettes from retail, online and social sources among underage and young adult e-cigarette users who live in California jurisdictions that restrict sales of flavoured tobacco with the rest of the state.MethodsAn online survey used social media advertisements to recruit participants (n=3075, ages 15–29) who lived in one of nine jurisdictions that restrict sales (n=1539) or in the rest of state, and oversampled flavoured tobacco users. Focusing on past-month e-cigarette users (n=908), multilevel models tested whether access to flavoured JUUL and other e-cigarettes from retail, online and social sources differed by local law (yes/no) and age group (15–20 or older), controlling for other individual characteristics.ResultsThe percent of underage users who obtained flavoured JUUL and other e-cigarettes in the past month was 33.6% and 31.2% from retail, 11.6% and 12.7% online, and 76.0% and 70.9% from social sources, respectively. Compared with underage and young adult users in the rest of California, those in localities that restrict the sales of flavoured tobacco were less likely to obtain flavoured JUUL from retail sources (Adjusted OR=0.54, 95% CI 0.36 to 0.80), but more likely to obtain it from social sources (Adjusted OR=1.55, 95% CI 1.02 to 2.35). The same pattern was observed for other brands of flavoured e-cigarettes.ConclusionAlthough local laws may reduce access to flavoured e-cigarettes from retail sources, more comprehensive state or federal restrictions are recommended to close the loopholes for online sources. Dedicated efforts to curtail access from social sources are needed.

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Restricting tobacco sales to only pharmacies combined with cessation advice: a modelling study of the future smoking prevalence, health and cost impacts

Tobacco Control ◽

10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2018-054600 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 28 (6) ◽

pp. 643-650 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

Frederieke S Petrović-van der Deen ◽

Tony Blakely ◽

Giorgi Kvizhinadze ◽

Christine L Cleghorn ◽

Linda J Cobiac ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Population Health ◽

Smoking Prevalence ◽

Large Population ◽

Simulation Models ◽

Intervention Package ◽

Future Health ◽

Uncertainty Interval ◽

Tobacco Sales ◽

Life Years ◽

Tobacco Endgame

ObjectiveRestricting tobacco sales to pharmacies only, including the provision of cessation advice, has been suggested as a potential measure to hasten progress towards the tobacco endgame. We aimed to quantify the impacts of this hypothetical intervention package on future smoking prevalence, population health and health system costs for a country with an endgame goal: New Zealand (NZ).MethodsWe used two peer-reviewed simulation models: 1) a dynamic population forecasting model for smoking prevalence and 2) a closed cohort multi-state life-table model for future health gains and costs by sex, age and ethnicity. Greater costs due to increased travel distances to purchase tobacco were treated as an increase in the price of tobacco. Annual cessation rates were multiplied with the effect size for brief opportunistic cessation advice on sustained smoking abstinence.ResultsThe intervention package was associated with a reduction in future smoking prevalence, such that by 2025 prevalence was 17.3%/6.8% for Māori (Indigenous)/non-Māori compared to 20.5%/8.1% projected under no intervention. The measure was furthermore estimated to accrue 41 700 discounted quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 33 500 to 51 600) over the remainder of the 2011 NZ population’s lives. Of these QALYs gained, 74% were due to the provision of cessation advice over and above the limiting of sales to pharmacies.ConclusionsThis work provides modelling-level evidence that the package of restricting tobacco sales to only pharmacies combined with cessation advice in these settings can accelerate progress towards the tobacco endgame, and achieve large population health benefits and cost-savings.

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Association of flavoured cigar regulations with wholesale tobacco volumes in Canada: an interrupted time series analysis

Tobacco Control ◽

10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2018-054255 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 28 (4) ◽

pp. 457-461 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Michael O Chaiton ◽

Robert Schwartz ◽

Gabrielle Tremblay ◽

Robert Nugent

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Sensitivity Analysis ◽

Time Series Analysis ◽

Interrupted Time Series ◽

Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽

Level Change ◽

Series Analysis ◽

Tobacco Sales ◽

Health Canada ◽

Over Time

IntroductionThis study examines the association of Federal Canadian regulations passed in 2009 addressing flavours (excluding menthol) in small cigars with changes in cigar sales.MethodsQuarterly wholesale unit data as reported to Health Canada from 2001 through 2016 were analysed using interrupted time series analysis. Changes in sales of cigars with and without flavour descriptors were estimated. Analyses were seasonally adjusted. Changes in the flavour types were assessed over time.ResultsThe Federal flavour regulations were associated with a reduction in the sales of flavoured cigars by 59 million units (95% CI −86.0 to −32.4). Increases in sales of cigars with descriptors other than flavours (eg, colour or other ambiguous terms) were observed (9.6 million increase (95% CI −1.3 to 20.5), but the overall level (decline of 49.6 million units (95% CI −73.5 to −25.8) and trend of sales of cigars (6.9 million units per quarter (95% CI −8.1 to −5.7)) declined following the ban. Sensitivity analysis showed that there was no substantial difference in effect over time comparing Ontario and British Columbia, suggesting that other provincial tobacco control legislation was not associated with the changes in levels. Analyses suggested that the level change was sensitive to the specification of the date.ConclusionThis study demonstrates that flavour regulations have the potential to substantially impact tobacco sales. However, exemptions for certain flavours and product types may have reduced the effectiveness of the ban, indicating the need for comprehensive, well-designed regulations.

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The Economic Effects of Tobacco Sales in a Nontobacco State

JAMA ◽

10.1001/jama.1994.03520040036036 ◽

1994 ◽

Vol 272 (4) ◽

pp. 276

Author(s):

Jonathan M. Evans

Keyword(s):

Economic Effects ◽

Tobacco Sales

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