scholarly journals Public debt and economic growth: Is there a causal effect?

2014 ◽  
Vol 41 ◽  
pp. 21-41 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ugo Panizza ◽  
Andrea F. Presbitero
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Causal Effect

scholarly journals The Relationship Between Increased Debt Ratio and Economic Growth in the European Union: The Granger Causality Approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 77-94
Author(s):  
Ádám Marton
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
European Union ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Reverse Direction ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
The Relationship

Increased government debt rates in recent years can be easily financed in the current global economic environment characterised by liquidity abundance. Nevertheless, the  debt ratios represent a potential threat under the surface,  which could lead to significant macroeconomic problems in  the future. The purpose of the paper is to contribute to the  debate in the empirical studies between public debt and  economic growth, as well as external debt and economic  growth. During the analyses, the relationship between  variables was examined using the panel Granger causality  test with the Dumitrescu–Hurlin test in the Member States  of the European Union. The main findings of the study are  that there is a unidirectional causal effect between public  debt and economic growth, that is, only debt impacts on  the economic growth. In case of external debt and  economic growth there is also a unidirectional effect, but it  is in the reverse direction. In addition, the pre-crisis and  post-crisis period was also examined, on the basis of which  it can be concluded that before the crisis, the nature of the  relationship was bidirectional between public debt and  economic growth, whereas after the crisis the debt had an  impact on the economy growth, and the reverse effect does  not exist.

The Effect of the Public Debt on Economic Growth in Sri Lankan Economy

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. J. Kumarasinghe ◽  
P. R. P. Purankumbura
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Sri Lankan ◽  
The Public

How Does Public Debt Affect the Indian Macroeconomy? A Structural VAR Approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 253-284
Author(s):  
Ranjan Kumar Mohanty ◽  
Sidheswar Panda
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Decomposition Analysis ◽  
Structural Var ◽  
Adverse Impact ◽  
Mixed Effect ◽  
Domestic Debt ◽  
The Impact

The study investigates the macroeconomic effects of public debt in India during 1980–2017 using a structural vector autoregression framework. The objective is to examine the impact of public debt on the interest rate, investment, inflation and economic growth in India. The results of the impulse response functions show that public debt has an adverse impact on economic growth but a positive impact on the long-term interest rate in the short run and a mixed effect (both negative and positive) on investment and inflation. We also find that domestic debt has a more adverse impact on the economy than external debt. The estimated variance decomposition analysis finds that much of the variation in selected macro variables are explained by public debt and growth in India. This study suggests that public debt especially domestic debt should be controlled and channelled productively to have a favourable impact on the economy. JEL Classification: H63, O40, C40

scholarly journals Role of Governance in Debt-Growth Relationship: Evidence from Panel Data Estimations

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 5954
Author(s):  
Qamar Abbas ◽  
Li Junqing ◽  
Muhammad Ramzan ◽  
Sumbal Fatima
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Linear Pattern ◽  
The Public ◽  
Mediating Role ◽  
National Output ◽  
State Governance

This paper provides an empirical analysis of the relationship between debt and national output mediated by a measure of the quality of state governance. Using WGIs dataset of 106 countries for the period 1996–2015, the paper analyzes the mediated effect of governance on debt-growth relationship. For this purpose, we use the fixed effect (LSDV) and system GMM estimation technique in order to overcome the possible problem of endogeneity. Results show the non-linear pattern between public debt and economic growth via governance. Although, public debt has negative impact on economic growth, but the results are statistically positive and significant when public debt is interacted with governance, which confirms that governance is a channel by which public debt influences economic growth. Moreover, we calculate the threshold of governance which shows that the public debt has positive impact on economic growth when the governance level is higher than the threshold and adversely affects the economic growth in the case of low level of governance than threshold. Evidence from this study reveals the fact that governance plays a mediating role in debt-growth relationship as there is a pattern of complementarity between public debt and governance: the higher the level of governance, the lesser the adverse effect of public debt on economic growth.

Does Public Debt Service Expenditure Crowd-Out Economic Growth? Empirical Evidence from an African Developing Country

2019 ◽  
Vol 64 (3) ◽  
pp. 23-38
Author(s):  
Talknice Saungweme ◽  
Nicholas M. Odhiambo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Policy Formulation ◽  
Debt Service ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This paper contributes to the ongoing debate on the impact of public debt service on economic growth; and it provides an evidence-based approach to public policy formulation in Zimbabwe. The empirical analysis was performed by applying the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique to annual time-series data from 1970 to 2017. The study findings reveal that the impact of public debt service on economic growth in Zimbabwe is negative in the short run but positive in the long run. The results are suggestive of the existence of a crowding-out effect of public debt service in Zimbabwe in the short run and a crowding-in effect in the long run. In view of these findings, the government should consider fiscal and financial policies that promote a constant supply of long-term finance, long-term fixed investments, and extension of a government securities maturity structure so as to ensure sustainable short- and long-term public debt service expenditures. The study further recommends the strengthening of non-distortionary revenue mobilisation reforms to reduce market distortions and boost domestic investment.

MAIN PROBLEMS OF PUBLIC DEBT MANAGEMENT OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (5) ◽  
pp. 27-31
Author(s):  
I. V. SUGAROVA ◽  
◽  
N. V. TADTAEVA ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Debt Management ◽  
Financial Resources ◽  
Modern World ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Public Debt Management

In the modern world economy, most countries lack the financial resources to fully perform their duties and functions to their citizens. The consequence of the increase in borrowing by countries is the growth of public debt. Its management is becoming one of the most acute problems in the current conditions. The article presents the main aspects of this problem, and suggests measures to stimulate the country's economic growth.

scholarly journals How Much Does Economic Growth Contribute to Child Stunting Reductions?

Economies ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 55 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sébastien Mary
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Reverse Causality ◽  
Child Stunting ◽  
Percentage Point Increase ◽  
Child Undernutrition ◽  
Novel Approach ◽  
Per Capita

The role of economic growth in reducing child undernutrition remains an open and highly debated question that holds important implications for food security strategies. The empirical evidence has been quite contrasted, primarily in regard to the magnitude of the impacts. Yet, most studies have not (appropriately) accounted for the reverse causality between economic growth and child stunting. Using a dataset of 74 developing countries observed between 1984 and 2014, this paper develops a novel approach accounting for the reverse causal effect of stunting on GDP per capita and finds that the impacts of economic growth are much lower than estimated in most previous studies. A 10% increase in GDP per capita reduces child stunting prevalence by 2.7%. In other words, economic growth is modestly pro-poor. We also estimate that a percentage point increase in child stunting prevalence results in a 0.4% decrease in GDP per capita. A back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that stunting costs on average about 13.5% of GDP per capita in developing countries.

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