Recently, the number of published works devoted to the processes of synanthropization of fauna, is growing like an avalanche, which indicates the extreme urgency of this theme. In our view, the process of forming devices to coexist with human and the results of his life reflects the general tandency of the modern nature evolution. Urbanization is characteristic for such a specific group of animals like amphibians, the evidence of which are numerous literature data. Many researchers use this group to assess the bioindicative quality of the environment. For this aim a variety of indicators are used: from the cellular level of life of organization up to the species composition of the group in different territories. At the same time, the interpretation of the results is not always comparable for different areas and often have significantly different interpretations by experts. Urban environment, primarily due to the contamination is extremely aggressive to amphibians. As a consequence, the urban populations of amphibians may be a change in the demographic structure, affecting the reproductive ability of the population, the disappearance of the most sensitive species or individuals, resizing animals, the appearance of abnormalities in the development, etc. At the same time play an important amphibians in the ecosystems of cities, and some species in these conditions even feel relatively comfortable. Therefore, it is interesting to understand the mechanisms of self-sustaining populations of amphibians in urban environments. To assess the impact of natural and anthropogenic factors on the development of amphibian populations were used cognitive modeling using the program Vensim PLE. Cognitive map of the model for urban and suburban habitat conditions were the same. The differences concerned the strength of connections between individual factors (migration, fertility, pollution) and their orientation. In general, factors like pollution, parasites, predators had negative impact on the population, reducing its number. The birth rate, food and migration contributed to raising number of individuals. Some of the factors affected on the strength to of each other as well: the majority of the factors affected the structure of the population, had an influence on the fertility. Thanks to it the model reflects the additive effect of complex of factors on the subsequent status of the population. Proposed and analyzed four scenarios differing strength and duration of exposure. In the first scenario, a one-time contamination occurs and not subsequently repeated. The second and third scenario assumes half board contamination, 1 year (2 scenario) and two years (scenario 3). In the fourth scenario, the pollution affected the population of amphibians constantly. In accordance with the results of simulation, much weaker than the natural populations respond to pollution - have them as an intensive population growth and its disappearance at constant pollution is slow. Changes to other parameters of the model showed that this pollution is the decisive factor -only the constant action leads to a lethal outcome for the populations. All other components of the model have a corrective effect on the population dynamics, without changing its underlying trand. In urban areas due to the heavy impact of pollution maintaining the population is only possible thanks to the migration process – the constant replenishment of diminishing micropopulations of natural reserves. This confirms the assumption that the form of existence metapopulations lake frog in the city. In order to maintain the number of amphibians in urban areas at a high level it is necessary to maintain existing migration routes and the creation of new ones. Insular nature of the placement of suitable habitats in urban areas causes the metapopulation structure of the types of urbanists. Therefore, the process of urbanization is much easier for those species whicht are capable of migration in conditions of city. In the initial stages of settling the city micropopulationis formed by selective mortality of the most susceptible individuals to adverse effects. In future, maintaining the categories of individuals is provided mainly due to migration processes metapopulisation form of the species of existence is supported). It should be noted that the changes in the previous levels are always saved in future. In the case of reorganizations of individuals we of morphology can assume the existence of extremely adverse environmental conditions that threaten the extinction of the micropopulations.
Mean Empirical Likelihood Inference for Response Mean with Data Missing at Random
