scholarly journals Impact of Climate Change on Livestock Returns and Rangeland Ecosystem Sustainability in the Southwest

2018 ◽  
Vol 47 (2) ◽  
pp. 336-356 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gregory L. Torell ◽  
Katherine D. Lee
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Current Method ◽  
Adaptive Methods ◽  
Livestock Grazing ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Stocking Rate ◽  
Forage Production ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Stocking Rates

Climate change will increase variability in temperature and precipitation on rangelands, impacting ecosystem services including livestock grazing. Facing uncertainty about future climate, managers must know if current practices will maintain rangeland sustainability. Herein, the future density of an invasive species, broom snakeweed, is estimated using a long-term ecological dataset and climate projections. We find that livestock stocking rates determined using a current method result in lower forage production, allowable stocking rate, and grazing value than an economically efficient stocking rate. Results indicate that using ecology and adaptive methods in management are critical to the sustainability of rangelands.

scholarly journals Analysis of climate change in Dnipropetrovsk Region

2017 ◽  
pp. 43-51
Author(s):  
V. V. Hrynchak
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Absolute Temperature ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Annual Precipitation ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Weather Observations ◽  
Average Annual Temperature

The decision about writing this article was made after familiarization with the "Brief Climatic Essay of Dnepropetrovsk City (prepared based on observations of 1886 – 1937)" written by the Head of the Dnipropetrovsk Weather Department of the Hydrometeorological Service A. N. Mikhailov. The guide has a very interesting fate: in 1943 it was taken by the Nazis from Dnipropetrovsk and in 1948 it returned from Berlin back to the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological and Environmental Directorate of the USSR, as evidenced by a respective entry on the Essay's second page. Having these invaluable materials and data of long-term weather observations in Dnipro city we decided to analyze climate changes in Dnipropetrovsk region. The article presents two 50-year periods, 1886-1937 and 1961-2015, as examples. Series of observations have a uniform and representative character because they were conducted using the same methodology and results processing. We compared two main characteristics of climate: air temperature and precipitation. The article describes changes of average annual temperature values and absolute temperature values. It specifies the shift of seasons' dates and change of seasons' duration. We studied the changes of annual precipitation and peculiarities of their seasonable distribution. Apart from that peculiarities of monthly rainfall fluctuations and their heterogeneity were specified. Since Dnipro city is located in the center of the region the identified tendencies mainly reflect changes of climatic conditions within the entire Dnipropetrovsk region.

scholarly journals Climate Change Influences Basidiome Emergence of Leaf-Cutting Ant Cultivars

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (11) ◽  
pp. 912
Author(s):  
Rodolfo Bizarria ◽  
Pepijn W. Kooij ◽  
Andre Rodrigues
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Nest Architecture ◽  
Historical Records ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Data Analyses ◽  
Symbiotic Mutualism ◽  
Leaf Cutting

Maintaining symbiosis homeostasis is essential for mutualistic partners. Leaf-cutting ants evolved a long-term symbiotic mutualism with fungal cultivars for nourishment while using vertical asexual transmission across generations. Despite the ants’ efforts to suppress fungal sexual reproduction, scattered occurrences of cultivar basidiomes have been reported. Here, we review the literature for basidiome occurrences and associated climate data. We hypothesized that more basidiome events could be expected in scenarios with an increase in temperature and precipitation. Our field observations and climate data analyses indeed suggest that Acromyrmex coronatus colonies are prone to basidiome occurrences in warmer and wetter seasons. Even though our study partly depended on historical records, occurrences have increased, correlating with climate change. A nest architecture with low (or even the lack of) insulation might be the cause of this phenomenon. The nature of basidiome occurrences in the A. coronatus–fungus mutualism can be useful to elucidate how resilient mutualistic symbioses are in light of climate change scenarios.

scholarly journals A high-resolution downscaled CMIP6 projections dataset of essential surface climate variables over the globe coherent with the ERA5-Land reanalysis for climate change impact assessments

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Noël ◽  
Harilaos Loukos ◽  
Dimitri Defrance
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Mapping Method ◽  
Cumulative Distribution ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Modelling ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Surface Climate ◽  
Emissions Scenarios

A high-resolution climate projections dataset is obtained by statistically downscaling climate projections from the CMIP6 experiment using the ERA5-Land reanalysis from the Copernicus Climate Change Service. This global dataset has a spatial resolution of 0.1°x 0.1°, comprises 5 climate models and includes two surface daily variables at monthly resolution: air temperature and precipitation. Two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios are available: one with mitigation policy (SSP126) and one without mitigation (SSP585). The downscaling method is a Quantile Mapping method (QM) called the Cumulative Distribution Function transform (CDF-t) method that was first used for wind values and is now referenced in dozens of peer-reviewed publications. The data processing includes quality control of metadata according to the climate modelling community standards and value checking for outlier detection.

scholarly journals Satellites, Self-reports, and Submersion: Exposure to Floods in Bangladesh

2015 ◽  
Vol 105 (5) ◽  
pp. 232-236 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raymond Guiteras ◽  
Amir Jina ◽  
A. Mushfiq Mobarak
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Objective Data ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Flood Exposure ◽  
Self Reports ◽  
Term Variation

A burgeoning “Climate-Economy” literature has uncovered many effects of changes in temperature and precipitation on economic activity, but has made considerably less progress in modeling the effects of other associated phenomena, like natural disasters. We develop new, objective data on floods, focusing on Bangladesh. We show that rainfall and self-reported exposure are weak proxies for true flood exposure. These data allow us to study adaptation, giving accurate measures of both long-term averages and short term variation in exposure. This is important in studying climate change impacts, as people will not only experience new exposures, but also experience them differently.

Long-Term Effects of Early Pruning and Thinning Treatments on Growth of Natural Longleaf Pine

1980 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 77-79
Author(s):  
Robert C. Sparks ◽  
Norwin E. Linnartz ◽  
Harold E. Harris
Keyword(s):  
Longleaf Pine ◽  
Basal Area ◽  
Pinus Palustris ◽  
Diameter Growth ◽  
Stocking Rate ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Natural Stand ◽  
Stocking Rates ◽  
Pruning Intensity

Abstract Pruning and thinning a young natural stand of longleaf pine (Pinus palustris Mill.) in southwest Louisiana had little influence on height. However, diameter growth was reduced substantially as pruning intensity or stocking rate increased up to 25-percent live crown and 200 stems per acre, respectively. Improved diameter growth at lower stocking rates was not sufficient to equal the total basal area increment of 200 trees per acre.

scholarly journals Modeling the Impacts of Climate Change on Crop Yield and Irrigation in the Monocacy River Watershed, USA

Climate ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (12) ◽  
pp. 139
Author(s):  
Manashi Paul ◽  
Sijal Dangol ◽  
Vitaly Kholodovsky ◽  
Amy R. Sapkota ◽  
Masoud Negahban-Azar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Yield ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
River Watershed ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
The Impact

Crop yield depends on multiple factors, including climate conditions, soil characteristics, and available water. The objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of projected temperature and precipitation changes on crop yields in the Monocacy River Watershed in the Mid-Atlantic United States based on climate change scenarios. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to simulate watershed hydrology and crop yield. To evaluate the effect of future climate projections, four global climate models (GCMs) and three representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5, 6, and 8.5) were used in the SWAT model. According to all GCMs and RCPs, a warmer climate with a wetter Autumn and Spring and a drier late Summer season is anticipated by mid and late century in this region. To evaluate future management strategies, water budget and crop yields were assessed for two scenarios: current rainfed and adaptive irrigated conditions. Irrigation would improve corn yields during mid-century across all scenarios. However, prolonged irrigation would have a negative impact due to nutrients runoff on both corn and soybean yields compared to rainfed condition. Decision tree analysis indicated that corn and soybean yields are most influenced by soil moisture, temperature, and precipitation as well as the water management practice used (i.e., rainfed or irrigated). The computed values from the SWAT modeling can be used as guidelines for water resource managers in this watershed to plan for projected water shortages and manage crop yields based on projected climate change conditions.

Grazing system and stocking rate effects on the productivity, botanical composition and soil surface characteristics of alfalfa-grass pastures

1997 ◽  
Vol 77 (4) ◽  
pp. 669-676 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. D. Popp ◽  
W. P. McCaughey ◽  
R. D. H. Cohen
Keyword(s):  
Soil Surface ◽  
Surface Characteristics ◽  
Botanical Composition ◽  
Stocking Rate ◽  
Forage Production ◽  
Basal Cover ◽  
Grazed Pastures ◽  
Litter Cover ◽  
Grazing System ◽  
Stocking Rates

A 4-yr experiment was conducted (1991 to 1994) near Brandon, MB, to determine the effects of grazing system (continuous and rotational) and stocking rate [light (1.1 steers ha−1); heavy (2.2 steers ha−1)] on the productivity, botanical composition and soil surface characteristics of an alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.; approximately 70%), meadow bromegrass (Bromus biebersteinii Roem & Schult.; 25%) and Russian wild ryegrass [Psathyrostachys juncea (Fisch.) Nevski; 5%] pasture. Grazing season length was shorter (P < 0.05) for cattle in continuously compared with rotationally stocked pastures in 1991, while in 1993 and 1994 it was shortest (P < 0.05) in heavily stocked continuously grazed pastures. Carrying capacity (steer days ha–1) was greater (P < 0.05) in heavily stocked rotationally grazed pastures compared with other treatments in 1991, 1993 and 1994. In 1992, it was greater (P < 0.05) in heavy than light stocking rate treatments for both rotationally and continuously grazed pastures. Cattle usually gained more (P < 0.05) per day (kg d−1) and during the season (kg hd−1) at light than at heavy stocking rates, while total liveweight production (kg ha−1) was greater (P < 0.05) at heavy than at light stocking rates. Forage production and disappearance did not differ (P > 0.05) within grazing systems and stocking rates from 1991 to 1993, but in 1994, production and disappearance were greater (P < 0.05) at heavy than at light stocking rates. Mean seasonal herbage mass available and carry-over were greater (P < 0.05) in lightly stocked pastures than heavily stocked pastures from 1991 to 1994. After the first year of grazing, the proportion of alfalfa increased (P < 0.05), while grasses declined (P < 0.05) within all grazing treatments. In subsequent years, a trend was observed, where alfalfa declined and grasses increased in all pastures, except those stocked heavily and grazed continuously, which by 1994 had the greatest (P < 0.05) percentage of alfalfa. As years progressed, increases (P < 0.05) in basal cover concurrent with declines in bare ground were recorded on all grazing treatments, while litter cover often did not differ (P > 0.05) within either grazing system or stocking rate, except in 1992, when basal cover was lowest (P < 0.05), while litter cover was greatest (P < 0.05) on lightly stocked continuously grazed pastures compared with other treatments. Stocking rates were a key factor to optimizing individual animal performance and/or gain per hectare on alfalfa grass pastures, however differences in the effect of continuous and rotational stocking on pasture productivity were minimal. Key words: Alfalfa, grazing, stocker cattle, production

scholarly journals Water Quality Sustainability Evaluation under Uncertainty: A Multi-Scenario Analysis Based on Bayesian Networks

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (17) ◽  
pp. 4764 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna Sperotto ◽  
Josè Luis Molina ◽  
Silvia Torresan ◽  
Andrea Critto ◽  
Manuel Pulido-Velazquez ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Bayesian Networks ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Large Variability ◽  
Nutrient Loadings

With increasing evidence of climate change affecting the quality of water resources, there is the need to assess the potential impacts of future climate change scenarios on water systems to ensure their long-term sustainability. The study assesses the uncertainty in the hydrological responses of the Zero river basin (northern Italy) generated by the adoption of an ensemble of climate projections from 10 different combinations of a global climate model (GCM)–regional climate model (RCM) under two emission scenarios (representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5). Bayesian networks (BNs) are used to analyze the projected changes in nutrient loadings (NO3, NH4, PO4) in mid- (2041–2070) and long-term (2071–2100) periods with respect to the baseline (1983–2012). BN outputs show good confidence that, across considered scenarios and periods, nutrient loadings will increase, especially during autumn and winter seasons. Most models agree in projecting a high probability of an increase in nutrient loadings with respect to current conditions. In summer and spring, instead, the large variability between different GCM–RCM results makes it impossible to identify a univocal direction of change. Results suggest that adaptive water resource planning should be based on multi-model ensemble approaches as they are particularly useful for narrowing the spectrum of plausible impacts and uncertainties on water resources.

scholarly journals Potential climate change impacts on temperate forest ecosystem processes

2013 ◽  
Vol 43 (10) ◽  
pp. 939-950 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emily B. Peters ◽  
Kirk R. Wythers ◽  
Shuxia Zhang ◽  
John B. Bradford ◽  
Peter B. Reich
Keyword(s):  
Great Lakes ◽  
Forest Type ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Ecosystem Model ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Net N Mineralization ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Ecosystem Responses ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation

Large changes in atmospheric CO2, temperature, and precipitation are predicted by 2100, yet the long-term consequences for carbon (C), water, and nitrogen (N) cycling in forests are poorly understood. We applied the PnET-CN ecosystem model to compare the long-term effects of changing climate and atmospheric CO2 on productivity, evapotranspiration, runoff, and net nitrogen mineralization in current Great Lakes forest types. We used two statistically downscaled climate projections, PCM B1 (warmer and wetter) and GFDL A1FI (hotter and drier), to represent two potential future climate and atmospheric CO2 scenarios. To separate the effects of climate and CO2, we ran PnET-CN including and excluding the CO2 routine. Our results suggest that, with rising CO2 and without changes in forest type, average regional productivity could increase from 67% to 142%, changes in evapotranspiration could range from –3% to +6%, runoff could increase from 2% to 22%, and net N mineralization could increase 10% to 12%. Ecosystem responses varied geographically and by forest type. Increased productivity was almost entirely driven by CO2 fertilization effects, rather than by temperature or precipitation (model runs holding CO2 constant showed stable or declining productivity). The relative importance of edaphic and climatic spatial drivers of productivity varied over time, suggesting that productivity in Great Lakes forests may switch from being temperature- to water-limited by the end of the century.

scholarly journals The rate of ecological acclimation is the dominant uncertainty in long-term projections of a key ecosystem service

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew J. Felton ◽  
Robert K. Shriver ◽  
Michael Stemkovski ◽  
John B. Bradford ◽  
Katharine N. Suding ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽  
Species Turnover ◽  
Spatial Gradient ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Forage Production ◽  
Global Circulation Models ◽  
Decadal Scale

The potential for ecosystems to continue providing society with essential services may depend on their ability to acclimate to climate change through multiple processes operating from cells to landscapes. While models to predict climate change impacts on ecosystem services often consider uncertainty among greenhouse gas emission scenarios or global circulation models (GCMs), they rarely consider the rate of ecological acclimation, which depends on decadal-scale processes such as species turnover. Here we show that uncertainty due to the unknown rate of ecological acclimation is larger than other sources of uncertainty in late-century projections of forage production in US rangelands. Combining statistical models fit to historical climate data and remotely-sensed estimates of herbaceous productivity with an ensemble of GCMs, we projected changes in forage production using two approaches. The time-series approach, which assumes minimal acclimation, projects widespread decreases in forage production. The spatial gradient approach, which assumes ecological acclimation keeps pace with climate, predicts widespread increases in forage production. This first attempt to quantify the magnitude of a critical uncertainty emphasizes that better understanding of ecological acclimation is essential to improve long-term forecasts of ecosystem services, and shows that management to facilitate ecological acclimation may be necessary to maintain ecosystem services at historical baselines.

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