scholarly journals Climate Change Influences Basidiome Emergence of Leaf-Cutting Ant Cultivars

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (11) ◽  
pp. 912
Author(s):  
Rodolfo Bizarria ◽  
Pepijn W. Kooij ◽  
Andre Rodrigues
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Nest Architecture ◽  
Historical Records ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Data Analyses ◽  
Symbiotic Mutualism ◽  
Leaf Cutting

Maintaining symbiosis homeostasis is essential for mutualistic partners. Leaf-cutting ants evolved a long-term symbiotic mutualism with fungal cultivars for nourishment while using vertical asexual transmission across generations. Despite the ants’ efforts to suppress fungal sexual reproduction, scattered occurrences of cultivar basidiomes have been reported. Here, we review the literature for basidiome occurrences and associated climate data. We hypothesized that more basidiome events could be expected in scenarios with an increase in temperature and precipitation. Our field observations and climate data analyses indeed suggest that Acromyrmex coronatus colonies are prone to basidiome occurrences in warmer and wetter seasons. Even though our study partly depended on historical records, occurrences have increased, correlating with climate change. A nest architecture with low (or even the lack of) insulation might be the cause of this phenomenon. The nature of basidiome occurrences in the A. coronatus–fungus mutualism can be useful to elucidate how resilient mutualistic symbioses are in light of climate change scenarios.

scholarly journals Glacier Length Variations and Climate Change: Comparative Glacier Dynamics Since 1850 In The Pacific Northwest, U.S.A.

1990 ◽  
Vol 14 ◽  
pp. 332
Author(s):  
Melinda M. Brugman
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Snow Accumulation ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Glacier Terminus ◽  
Climate Records ◽  
Glacier Flow

One possible cause of glacier terminus variation is climate change. The problem with proving or disproving this hypothesis is that the precise relationship between climate change and glacier flow response is still incompletely understood. In this paper, I examine the relationship between recent glacier terminus fluctuations and climate variations documented since the middle 1800s in the Pacific northwest region of the United States. Six glaciers located in Washington and one in Oregon are compared in terms of terminus position record, local climate data (temperature, precipitation, snowfall and runoff records) and also in terms of what is known about the flow dynamics of each glacier. A simple model is presented to simulate the observed response behavior of each glacier. The variables modeled here include surface and bed slope, ice thickness, glacier length, sliding and deformation mechanics, seasonality of glacier flow velocity, traveling wave dynamics, snow accumulation and ablation patterns, runoff, regional temperature and precipitation. Mainly, information obtained at Blue, South Cascade and Nisqually glaciers are compared to results obtained by the author at Shoestring Glacier on Mount St. Helens. Others studied include Forsythe, Elliot, Coleman glaciers. The effects of local volcanic eruptions are separated from those attributed to climate change. Local climate records show that times of cool-wet weather alternate with warm-dry weather on a time scale of 15 to 20 years. In general, no definable long-term trend of annual average temperature and precipitation is apparent in the climate records (starting in the mid-1800s), except for a suggestion of slightly increased annual precipitation in the northern part of Washington since about 1930. The availability and reliability of different types of climate data is discussed in the paper. At Shoestring Glacier, the observed rapid response to environmental changes (both climate and volcanic) is shown to be directly related to readily-described mechanics of glacier sliding, internal deformation and englacial thrusting along discrete shear zones. For other glaciers, a combination of a rapid sliding response and a slow long-term deformation and sliding response is apparent, and related to that of the Shoestring Glacier. Where stagnant ice exists at or near a glacier terminus, the response behavior may be further complicated. The stagnant ice is often overthrust and buried by reactivated ice moving down from higher elevations. In other situations, stagnant terminus ice is accreted to the front of the reactivated portion of a glacier and shoved downhill. This behavior is seen at Shoestring and Nisqually glaciers. Traveling waves (resembling kinematic waves) are apparent at three of the glaciers studied and probably occur to some degree at all the glaciers. Understanding of the details of glacier flow dynamics and existing terminus conditions helped to formulate a simple model that I use to simulate terminus fluctuation records of all seven glaciers. Records of terminus position studies indicate that three distinct trends exist for this region. The first is a long-term trend of progressive retreat throughout historic times (meaning locally since the early 1800s). The second trend is the dramatic decrease in the rate of retreat and (perhaps temporary) minor readvance of some glaciers (Blue, Nisqually, Forsythe, Coleman, Shoestring glaciers) since 1950. The third trend is the short-term oscillation of glacier terminus positions on a cycle of 15 to 20 years that has occurred since 1950. Except for a slight hint of increased precipitation since 1950, the long-term variation in glacier terminus positions cannot be explained by local climate records. This may be attributed to the shortness of the available climate records, and the large variance of annual temperature and precipitation data. Conversely, the high frequency glacier terminus variations (on the order of 10 to 20 years) are well correlated with local temperature and precipitation fluctuations. For example, Nisqually and Shoestring glaciers advanced when the climate pattern became cool-wet and retreated when the climate changed to warm-dry. Very short lag times are implied by the data for several glaciers, and these are discussed in the paper. Results indicate that certain local glaciers are very sensitive to short-term climate variations on the order of one to ten years. Large glaciers and glaciers flowing slowly down shallow slopes respond more sluggishly to short-term climate changes, as might be expected. Glaciers with the greatest degree of seasonality in their flow behavior, such as Nisqually and Shoestring glaciers, responded most rapidly. Using this information derived from recent glacier and climate records we may be able to better predict future trends of snow accumulation patterns and climate change.

scholarly journals Application of LARS - WG downscaling model for building climate change scenarios in the Srepok watershed

2014 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 108-122
Author(s):  
Khoi Nguyen Dao ◽  
Nhung Thi Hong Nguyen ◽  
Canh Thanh Truong
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Emission Scenario ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Variables ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Rain Gauges ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation

There are statistical downscaling methods such as: SDSM, LARS-WG, WGEN…, used to convert information on climate variables from the simulation results of General Circulation Model (GCM) to build climate change scenarios for local region. In this study, we used the LARS-WG model and HadCM3 GCM for two emission scenarios: B1 (low emission scenario) and A1B (medium emission scenario) to generate future scenarios for temperature and precipitation at meteorological stations and rain gauges in the Srepok watershed. The LARS-WG model was calibrated and validated against observed climate data for the period 1980-2009, and the calibrated LARS-WG was then used to generate future climate variables for the 2020s (2011-2030), 2055s (2046-2065), and 2090s (2080-2099). The climate change scenarios suggested that the climate in the study area will become warmer and drier in the future. The results obtained in this study could be useful for policy makers in planning climate change adaptation strategies for the study area.

scholarly journals Glacier Length Variations and Climate Change: Comparative Glacier Dynamics Since 1850 In The Pacific Northwest, U.S.A.

1990 ◽  
Vol 14 ◽  
pp. 332-332
Author(s):  
Melinda M. Brugman
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Snow Accumulation ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Glacier Terminus ◽  
Climate Records ◽  
Glacier Flow

One possible cause of glacier terminus variation is climate change. The problem with proving or disproving this hypothesis is that the precise relationship between climate change and glacier flow response is still incompletely understood. In this paper, I examine the relationship between recent glacier terminus fluctuations and climate variations documented since the middle 1800s in the Pacific northwest region of the United States.Six glaciers located in Washington and one in Oregon are compared in terms of terminus position record, local climate data (temperature, precipitation, snowfall and runoff records) and also in terms of what is known about the flow dynamics of each glacier. A simple model is presented to simulate the observed response behavior of each glacier. The variables modeled here include surface and bed slope, ice thickness, glacier length, sliding and deformation mechanics, seasonality of glacier flow velocity, traveling wave dynamics, snow accumulation and ablation patterns, runoff, regional temperature and precipitation. Mainly, information obtained at Blue, South Cascade and Nisqually glaciers are compared to results obtained by the author at Shoestring Glacier on Mount St. Helens. Others studied include Forsythe, Elliot, Coleman glaciers. The effects of local volcanic eruptions are separated from those attributed to climate change.Local climate records show that times of cool-wet weather alternate with warm-dry weather on a time scale of 15 to 20 years. In general, no definable long-term trend of annual average temperature and precipitation is apparent in the climate records (starting in the mid-1800s), except for a suggestion of slightly increased annual precipitation in the northern part of Washington since about 1930. The availability and reliability of different types of climate data is discussed in the paper.At Shoestring Glacier, the observed rapid response to environmental changes (both climate and volcanic) is shown to be directly related to readily-described mechanics of glacier sliding, internal deformation and englacial thrusting along discrete shear zones. For other glaciers, a combination of a rapid sliding response and a slow long-term deformation and sliding response is apparent, and related to that of the Shoestring Glacier.Where stagnant ice exists at or near a glacier terminus, the response behavior may be further complicated. The stagnant ice is often overthrust and buried by reactivated ice moving down from higher elevations. In other situations, stagnant terminus ice is accreted to the front of the reactivated portion of a glacier and shoved downhill. This behavior is seen at Shoestring and Nisqually glaciers.Traveling waves (resembling kinematic waves) are apparent at three of the glaciers studied and probably occur to some degree at all the glaciers. Understanding of the details of glacier flow dynamics and existing terminus conditions helped to formulate a simple model that I use to simulate terminus fluctuation records of all seven glaciers.Records of terminus position studies indicate that three distinct trends exist for this region. The first is a long-term trend of progressive retreat throughout historic times (meaning locally since the early 1800s). The second trend is the dramatic decrease in the rate of retreat and (perhaps temporary) minor readvance of some glaciers (Blue, Nisqually, Forsythe, Coleman, Shoestring glaciers) since 1950. The third trend is the short-term oscillation of glacier terminus positions on a cycle of 15 to 20 years that has occurred since 1950.Except for a slight hint of increased precipitation since 1950, the long-term variation in glacier terminus positions cannot be explained by local climate records. This may be attributed to the shortness of the available climate records, and the large variance of annual temperature and precipitation data.Conversely, the high frequency glacier terminus variations (on the order of 10 to 20 years) are well correlated with local temperature and precipitation fluctuations. For example, Nisqually and Shoestring glaciers advanced when the climate pattern became cool-wet and retreated when the climate changed to warm-dry. Very short lag times are implied by the data for several glaciers, and these are discussed in the paper.Results indicate that certain local glaciers are very sensitive to short-term climate variations on the order of one to ten years. Large glaciers and glaciers flowing slowly down shallow slopes respond more sluggishly to short-term climate changes, as might be expected. Glaciers with the greatest degree of seasonality in their flow behavior, such as Nisqually and Shoestring glaciers, responded most rapidly. Using this information derived from recent glacier and climate records we may be able to better predict future trends of snow accumulation patterns and climate change.

scholarly journals Climate Change Observations and Trends Overview: Focus on Morocco With a Case-Study of A Future Reservoir’s Response to Climate Change

2020 ◽  
Vol 150 ◽  
pp. 01010
Author(s):  
Wafae El Harraki ◽  
Driss Ouazar ◽  
Ahmed Bouziane ◽  
Driss Hasnaoui
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Hot Spot ◽  
Demand Management ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Historical Series ◽  
Total Average

Climate change impacts are being unequivocal on societies, natural resources and economic development. Observations and trends of climate features have been tackled by many scientists through analysis of historical series of temperature and precipitation and projections of theses parameters and of their extremes under different scenarios. This paper gives an overview of climate change observations and trends based on some latest works with focus on impacts on water resources and specifically in Morocco belonging to a vulnerable continent to climate change and to the Mediterranean region qualified as a “hot spot”. A case-study from Sebou Basin was conducted through an assessment of water supply from a future reservoir for different sizes under climate change scenarios for the mid and end of the 21st century. Simulations of the future multi-objective dam showed a decrease of total average supply between 9% to 12% for the mid-term scenario and 20% to 27% for the long-term scenario. The biggest size was found to have better reliability permitting approaching the fulfillment of all water needs for the log-term. Some adaptation options are recommended in occurrence water demand management, reservoir operation optimization and raising users „awareness and participation in climate change adaptation.

scholarly journals Water resources of Ukraine in the XXI century under climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 AND RCP8.5)

2017 ◽  
pp. 114-122
Author(s):  
N.S. Loboda ◽  
Y.V. Bozhok
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
The Past ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Calculation Results ◽  
Grid Nodes

Data of climate change scenarios RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathways) were used. They were proposed for consideration in the Fifth Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Average long-term annual flow values using meteorological data (air temperature and precipitation) from the scenarios for the period 2011-2050 were calculated. 84 points (grid nodes) uniformly distributed on the territory of Ukraine were studied. The calculations were made based on the model "climate-runoff", developed in Odessa State Environmental University. Projection of changes in water resources was given by comparing the calculation results in the past (before 1989) and in the future (2011-2050). The major trends in water resources of Ukraine were established. It is shown that by the middle of the XXI century reducing of water resources is expected on the plain territory of Ukraine (70% in the southeast). In the geographical zone of the Ukrainian Carpathians, especially in the Tisa river basin, its stability or growth is possible. Analysis of changes in the ratio of moisture and heat resources showed that climate aridity will be intensify and the insufficient moisture zone and the semiarid zone will be widen.

scholarly journals Projections for Mexico’s Tropical Rainforests Considering Ecological Niche and Climate Change

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 119
Author(s):  
Antonio Fidel Santos-Hernández ◽  
Alejandro Ismael Monterroso-Rivas ◽  
Diódoro Granados-Sánchez ◽  
Antonio Villanueva-Morales ◽  
Malinali Santacruz-Carrillo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ecological Niche ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Tropical Rainforest ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Tropical Regions ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Ecological Importance

The tropical rainforest is one of the lushest and most important plant communities in Mexico’s tropical regions, yet its potential distribution has not been studied in current and future climate conditions. The aim of this paper was to propose priority areas for conservation based on ecological niche and species distribution modeling of 22 species with the greatest ecological importance at the climax stage. Geographic records were correlated with bioclimatic temperature and precipitation variables using Maxent and Kuenm software for each species. The best Maxent models were chosen based on statistical significance, complexity and predictive power, and current potential distributions were obtained from these models. Future potential distributions were projected with two climate change scenarios: HADGEM2_ES and GFDL_CM3 models and RCP 8.5 W/m2 by 2075–2099. All potential distributions for each scenario were then assembled for further analysis. We found that 14 tropical rainforest species have the potential for distribution in 97.4% of the landscape currently occupied by climax vegetation (0.6% of the country). Both climate change scenarios showed a 3.5% reduction in their potential distribution and possible displacement to higher elevation regions. Areas are proposed for tropical rainforest conservation where suitable bioclimatic conditions are expected to prevail.

scholarly journals Assessing the long-term effectiveness of Nature-Based Solutions under different climate change scenarios

2021 ◽  
pp. 148515
Author(s):  
Eulalia Gómez Martín ◽  
María Máñez Costa ◽  
Sabine Egerer ◽  
Uwe Schneider
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios

scholarly journals Analysis of climate change in Dnipropetrovsk Region

2017 ◽  
pp. 43-51
Author(s):  
V. V. Hrynchak
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Absolute Temperature ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Annual Precipitation ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Weather Observations ◽  
Average Annual Temperature

The decision about writing this article was made after familiarization with the "Brief Climatic Essay of Dnepropetrovsk City (prepared based on observations of 1886 – 1937)" written by the Head of the Dnipropetrovsk Weather Department of the Hydrometeorological Service A. N. Mikhailov. The guide has a very interesting fate: in 1943 it was taken by the Nazis from Dnipropetrovsk and in 1948 it returned from Berlin back to the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological and Environmental Directorate of the USSR, as evidenced by a respective entry on the Essay's second page. Having these invaluable materials and data of long-term weather observations in Dnipro city we decided to analyze climate changes in Dnipropetrovsk region. The article presents two 50-year periods, 1886-1937 and 1961-2015, as examples. Series of observations have a uniform and representative character because they were conducted using the same methodology and results processing. We compared two main characteristics of climate: air temperature and precipitation. The article describes changes of average annual temperature values and absolute temperature values. It specifies the shift of seasons' dates and change of seasons' duration. We studied the changes of annual precipitation and peculiarities of their seasonable distribution. Apart from that peculiarities of monthly rainfall fluctuations and their heterogeneity were specified. Since Dnipro city is located in the center of the region the identified tendencies mainly reflect changes of climatic conditions within the entire Dnipropetrovsk region.

scholarly journals Soil salinization under different climate change scenarios: A global scale analysis

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nima Shokri ◽  
Amirhossein Hassani ◽  
Adisa Azapagic
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Soil Salinity ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Soil Salinization ◽  
Water Evaporation ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Salt Affected Soils

<p>Population growth and climate change is projected to increase the pressure on land and water resources, especially in arid and semi-arid regions. This pressure is expected to affect all driving mechanisms of soil salinization comprising alteration in soil hydrological balance, sea salt intrusion, wet/dry deposition of wind-born saline aerosols — leading to an increase in soil salinity. Soil salinity influences soil stability, bio-diversity, ecosystem functioning and soil water evaporation (1). It can be a long-term threat to agricultural activities and food security. To devise sustainable action plan investments and policy interventions, it is crucial to know when and where salt-affected soils occur. However, current estimates on spatio-temporal variability of salt-affected soils are majorly localized and future projections in response to climate change are rare. Using Machine Learning (ML) algorithms, we related the available measured soil salinity values (represented by electrical conductivity of the saturated paste soil extract, EC<sub>e</sub>) to some environmental information (or predictors including outputs of Global Circulation Models, soil, crop, topographic, climatic, vegetative, and landscape properties of the sampling locations) to develop a set of data-driven predictive tools to enable the spatio-temporal predictions of soil salinity. The outputs of these tools helped us to estimate the extent and severity of the soil salinity under current and future climatic patterns at different geographical levels and identify the salinization hotspots by the end of the 21<sup>st</sup> century in response to climate change. Our analysis suggests that a soil area of 11.73 Mkm<sup>2</sup> located in non-frigid zones has been salt-affected in at least three-fourths of the 1980 - 2018 period (2). At the country level, Brazil, Peru, Sudan, Colombia, and Namibia were estimated to have the highest rates of annual increase in the total area of soils with an EC<sub>e</sub> ≥ 4 dS m<sup>-1</sup>. Additionally, the results indicate that by the end of the 21<sup>st</sup> century, drylands of South America, southern and Western Australia, Mexico, southwest United States, and South Africa will be the salinization hotspots (compared to the 1961 - 1990 period). The results of this study could inform decision-making and contribute to attaining the United Nation’s Sustainable Development Goals for land and water resources management.</p><p>1. Shokri-Kuehni, S.M.S., Raaijmakers, B., Kurz, T., Or, D., Helmig, R., Shokri, N. (2020). Water Table Depth and Soil Salinization: From Pore-Scale Processes to Field-Scale Responses. Water Resour. Res., 56, e2019WR026707. https://doi.org/ 10.1029/2019WR026707</p><p>2. Hassani, A., Azapagic, A., Shokri, N. (2020). Predicting Long-term Dynamics of Soil Salinity and Sodicity on a Global Scale, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., 117, 52, 33017–33027. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2013771117</p>

scholarly journals Climate change impacts the protective effect of forests: A case study in Switzerland

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christine Moos ◽  
Antoine Guisan ◽  
Christophe F. Randin ◽  
Heike Lischke
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Protective Effect ◽  
Climate Warming ◽  
Swiss Alps ◽  
Present Species ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Ground Truth Data

Abstract In steep terrain, forests play an important role as natural means of protection against natural hazards, such as rockfall. Due to climate warming, significant changes in the protection service of these forests have to be expected in future. Shifts of current to more drought adapted species may result in temporary or even irreversible losses in the risk reduction provided by these forests. In this study, we assessed how the protective effect against rockfall of a protection forest in the western part of the Valais in the Swiss Alps may change in future, by combining dynamic forest modelling with a quantitative risk analysis. Current and future forest development was modelled with the spatially explicit forest model TreeMig for a moderate (RCP4.5) and an extreme (RCP8.5) climate change scenario. The simulated forest scenarios were compared to ground-truth data from the current forest complex. We quantified the protective effect of the different forest scenarios based on the reduction of rockfall risk for people and infrastructure at the bottom of the slope. Rockfall risk was calculated on the basis of three-dimensional rockfall simulations. The forest simulations predicted a clear decrease in basal area of most of the currently present species in future. The forest turned into a Q. pubescens dominated forest, for both climate scenarios, and mixed with P. sylvestris in RCP4.5. F. sylvatica completely disappeared in RCP8.5. With climate warming, a clear increase in risk is expected for both climate change scenarios. In the long-term (> 100 years), a stabilization of risk, or even a slight decline may be expected due to an increase in biomass of the trees. The results of this study further indicate that regular forest interventions may promote regeneration and thus accelerate the shift in species distribution. Future research should address the long-term effect of different forest management strategies on the protection service of forests under climate change.

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