How to inform decision making under uncertainty? Quantifying and evaluating different sources of uncertainty in environmental modelling

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Conrad Jackisch ◽  
Anett Schibalski ◽  
Boris Schröder
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Environmental Changes ◽  
Management Decision ◽  
Decision Making Under Uncertainty ◽  
Management Options ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Mean Values ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Different Sources

<p>Adaptation to environmental changes requires decision making under uncertainty. Providing forecasts of the potential impact of different management options is a common task for environmental modellers. However, we rarely succeed in conveying uncertainties as relevant information to distinguish management options regarding their expected value and its uncertainty. Quite to the contrary, the reality in the modelling of complex systems under climate change often leads to similar mean values and broad uncertainty bands. Both may irritate users and even lead to indecision and inaction despite an urgent call for action.</p><p>In the inter- and transdisciplinary project RUINS (Risk, Uncertainty and Insurance under Climate Change. Coastal Land Management on the German North Sea), we address a region that is sensitive to changes in relative sea level, weather patterns and land-use practices. We develop methods to quantify the uncertainty of adaptation measures through the chain of models for climate, hydrology and landscape management. The aim is to provide tools for the evaluation of forecasted effects of management options, where uncertainty itself is considered an evaluation criterion.</p><p>We will present examples to point out pitfalls and potentials of uncertainty quantification in environmental model forecasting for management decision making: (i) we highlight different sources and different kinds of uncertainty with an example of agricultural production; (ii) we address trade-offs between expected wind power production and the security of its provision; moreover, (iii) we highlight the role of temporal data resolution and capacity of drainage structures in the assessment of flood protection during extreme rain events.</p>

Beyond choice architecture: a building code for structuring climate risk management decisions

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-20
Author(s):  
JOSEPH ÁRVAI ◽  
ROBIN GREGORY
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Climate Risk ◽  
Choice Architecture ◽  
Management Decisions ◽  
Management Options ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Climate Risk Management

Abstract Although the need for urgent climate change action is clear, insights about how to make better climate risk management decisions are limited. While significant attention from behavioral researchers has focused on choice architecture, we argue that many of the contexts for addressing climate risks require increased attention to the needs of a deliberative and dynamic choice environment. A key facet of this kind of decision is the need for decision-makers and stakeholders to identify and balance conflicting economic, social and environmental objectives. This recognition of difficult, context-specific trade-offs highlights the need for structuring the decision-making process so that objectives are clearly articulated and prioritized. Equally, policy analyses and deliberations must effectively link priorities with climate risk management options. This restructuring of decision-making about climate change calls for more than a nudge. Scientific and technical efforts must be redirected to help stakeholders and decision-makers better understand the diverse implications of climate change management alternatives and to become better equipped to take actions commensurate with the urgency of the problem.

scholarly journals Revisiting the Functional Zoning Concept under Climate Change to Expand the Portfolio of Adaptation Options

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 273
Author(s):  
Samuel Royer-Tardif ◽  
Jürgen Bauhus ◽  
Frédérik Doyon ◽  
Philippe Nolet ◽  
Nelson Thiffault ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Multiple Use ◽  
Management Options ◽  
Ecological Processes ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Good Communication ◽  
Management Objectives ◽  
Functional Zoning ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Adaptation Options

Climate change is threatening our ability to manage forest ecosystems sustainably. Despite strong consensus on the need for a broad portfolio of options to face this challenge, diversified management options have yet to be widely implemented. Inspired by functional zoning, a concept aimed at optimizing biodiversity conservation and wood production in multiple-use forest landscapes, we present a portfolio of management options that intersects management objectives with forest vulnerability to better address the wide range of goals inherent to forest management under climate change. Using this approach, we illustrate how different adaptation options could be implemented when faced with impacts related to climate change and its uncertainty. These options range from establishing ecological reserves in climatic refuges, where self-organizing ecological processes can result in resilient forests, to intensive plantation silviculture that could ensure a stable wood supply in an uncertain future. While adaptation measures in forests that are less vulnerable correspond to the traditional functional zoning management objectives, forests with higher vulnerability might be candidates for transformative measures as they may be more susceptible to abrupt changes in structure and composition. To illustrate how this portfolio of management options could be applied, we present a theoretical case study for the eastern boreal forest of Canada. Even if these options are supported by solid evidence, their implementation across the landscape may present some challenges and will require good communication among stakeholders and with the public.

scholarly journals Identifying integrated options for agricultural climate change mitigation

2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 192-211 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Tzilivakis ◽  
Kathleen Lewis ◽  
Andrew Green ◽  
Douglas Warner
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Mitigation ◽  
Effective Means ◽  
Integrated Approach ◽  
Management Options ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Mitigation Options ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Environmental Objectives ◽  
Change Mitigation

Purpose – In order to achieve reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, it is essential that all industry sectors have the appropriate knowledge and tools to contribute. This includes agriculture, which is considered to contribute about a third of emissions globally. This paper reports on one such tool: IMPACCT: Integrated Management oPtions for Agricultural Climate Change miTigation. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach – IMPACCT focuses on GHGs, carbon sequestration and associated mitigation options. However, it also attempts to include information on economic and other environmental impacts in order to provide a more holistic perspective. The model identifies mitigation options, likely economic impacts and any synergies and trade-offs with other environmental objectives. The model has been applied on 22 case study farms in seven Member States. Findings – The tool presents some useful concepts for developing carbon calculators in the future. It has highlighted that calculators need to evolve from simply calculating emissions to identifying cost-effective and integrated emissions reduction options. Practical implications – IMPACCT has potential to become an effective means of provided targeted guidance, as part of a broader knowledge transfer programme based on an integrated suite of guidance, tools and advice delivered via different media. Originality/value – IMPACCT is a new model that demonstrates how to take a more integrated approach to mitigating GHGs on farms across Europe. It is a holistic carbon calculator that presents mitigation options in the context other environmental and economic objectives in the search for more sustainable methods of food production.

scholarly journals Assessing the Vulnerability of Marine Fisheries in China: Towards an Inter-Provincial Perspective

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 4302 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qi Chen ◽  
Weiteng Shen ◽  
Bing Yu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Adaptive Capacity ◽  
Fisheries Management ◽  
Vocational Training ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Environmental Changes ◽  
Marine Pollution ◽  
Marine Fisheries ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Adaptation Measures

China’s marine fisheries are undergoing large-scale environmental changes associated with climate change, marine pollution, and overfishing. The assessment of marine fisheries vulnerability has become extremely necessary for fisheries management and sustainable development. However, studies on China’s marine fisheries vulnerability remains sparse. This study aimed to provide an analysis of the inter-provincial level vulnerability of China’s marine fisheries under multiple disturbances. The vulnerability measure was composed of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity indicators specific to marine fisheries based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) definitions. Results showed that Liaoning, Hebei, Fujian, and Hainan provinces appeared to be the most vulnerable; Shanghai appeared to be less vulnerable among China’s 11 coastal provinces; and the key sources of vulnerability differed considerably among coastal regions. The high vulnerability regions could be divided into two different patterns according to the combination of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity, but they all had one thing in common: relatively low adaptive capacity. While some existing coercive measures to reduce dependence on fisheries were found to be helpful in China, the reality showed that appropriate adaptation measures such as improving fishermen’s education level and increasing vocational training may be helpful in enhancing the existing policy effectiveness.

scholarly journals Playing for a Resilient Future: A Serious Game Designed to Explore and Understand the Complexity of the Interaction among Climate Change, Disaster Risk and Urban Development

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (17) ◽  
pp. 8949
Author(s):  
Wei Gao ◽  
Yuwei Guo ◽  
Fanying Jiang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Urban Development ◽  
Green Infrastructure ◽  
Urban Expansion ◽  
Disaster Risk ◽  
Environmental Hazards ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Serious Game ◽  
Trade Offs

Urban development and disaster risk are deeply linked, especially now when we are facing increasingly frequent climate change. Hence, knowledge of the potential trade-offs between urban development and disaster risk reduction (DRR) may have potential to build a resilient and sustainable future. The objectives of this study are (1) to present education for a sustainability (EfS) program and to evaluate its performance: a serious game of knowledge communication for the interactions among climate change, disaster risk, and urban development; (2) to explore factors that will influence the players’ decision making in the trade-offs between urban development and DRR under an urbanization background through counterfactual scenarios constructed by a series of serious games. The Yudai Trench, once a critical component of the urban green infrastructure of ancient Guangzhou, has disappeared under rapid urban expansion, leaving the city exposed to environmental hazards caused by climate change. Is the disappearance of the Yudai Trench an inevitable event in the progress of urbanization? To answer this question, the study constructed counterfactual scenarios by recuring the historical progress through the same serious game. Gameplay involved the players’ decision making with associated impacts on the urbanization progress and the DRR in diverse climate hazard scenarios. For this study, 107 undergraduates from related majors, who are also would-be policymakers, were selected as players. The methodology combined questionnaire survey and participant observation complemented by interviews. The t-test results indicated that undergraduates’ knowledge levels had significant positive changes after the end of the serious game. Importantly, the results showed that the knowledge could potentially contribute to the players’ decision-making process for DRR by assisting them in making pre-decision. Beside this knowledge, the results expanded the range of influencing factors and solutions reported by previous literature on DRR under an urbanization background against climate hazards by constructing counterfactual scenarios, e.g., higher economic levels and policy incentives. In this study, the serious game was evaluated as an innovative communication and the EfS method in counterfactual scenarios. These findings of the study provide a reference for future practice, policymaking, and decision making so as to help harness lessons learned from unrealized environmental hazards to support a more resilient future through informed policies and plans.

scholarly journals Improving the practice of economic analysis of climate change adaptation

2014 ◽  
Vol 5 (03) ◽  
pp. 445-467 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jia Li ◽  
Michael Mullan ◽  
Jennifer Helgeson
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Economic Analysis ◽  
Climate Change Adaptation ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Investment Project ◽  
Current Evidence ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
The Us ◽  
Adaptation Decision

Abstract:The development of national and sectoral climate change adaptation strategies is burgeoning in the US and elsewhere in response to damages from extreme events and projected future risks from climate change. Increasingly, decision makers are requesting information on the economic damages of climate change as well as costs, benefits, and tradeoffs of alternative actions to inform climate adaptation decisions. This paper provides a practical view of the applications of economic analysis to aid climate change adaptation decision making, with a focus on benefit-cost analysis (BCA). We review the recent developments and applications of BCA with implications for climate risk management and adaptation decision making, both in the US and other Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries. We found that BCA is still in early stages of development for evaluating adaptation decisions, and to date is mostly being applied to investment project-based appraisals. Moreover, the best practices of economic analysis are not fully reflected in the BCAs of climate adaptation-relevant decisions. The diversity of adaptation measures and decision-making contexts suggest that evaluation of adaptation measures may require multiple analytical methods. The economic tools and information would need to be transparent, accessible, and match with the decision contexts to be effective in enhancing decision making. Based on the current evidence, a set of analytical considerations is proposed for improving economic analysis of climate adaptation that includes the need to better address uncertainty and to understand the cross-sector and general equilibrium effects of sectoral and national adaptation policy.

scholarly journals Simulation as Implementation of Digital Approach to Decision-Making under Uncertainty and Risk

2019 ◽  
Vol 62 ◽  
pp. 11004
Author(s):  
O.V. Tiutyk ◽  
M.E. Butakova
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Process Model ◽  
Relevant Literature ◽  
Information Support ◽  
Practical Significance ◽  
Primary Data ◽  
Management Decision ◽  
Decision Making Under Uncertainty ◽  
Modeling Tools ◽  
Management Decision Making

The paper articulates the problem of modeling management decision-making process in new digital reality: decision-making under uncertainty, volatile environment, huge amount of data to be accounted, objective analytical risk attitude. The proposed solution includes critical selection of risk and uncertainty management tools aimed at improvement quality of management decision-making information support in the sustainable development context (on the example of construction projects). The aim of research is the development of the new “digital” approach to the process of reducing uncertainty when decision making in highly risk projects, including the process model and toolkit. Methodology is based on logical analysis and synthesis, decomposition, qualitative analysis of the relevant literature and primary data (top management informal interviews, targeted sample), comparative and regression analysis, time series analysis, mathematical statistics and simulation modelling based on nine sets of design estimation paperwork and turnover-balance sheets. The contribution into the existing knowledge includes substantiating the correlation of the terms of the digital decision-making and simulation modeling tools in high-risk projects management under insufficient statistical data and their mutual interaction. Also, advisability of formalization of the decision-making method based on unprocessed design estimates is justified, and appropriate methods for sustainable decision-making information support are selected. The approbation demonstrated practical significance and economic effectiveness of developed approach; experiment was carried out on the base of «RSU – 6» LLC’s projects (Tchaikovsky, Perm region).

scholarly journals Empirical Study on Drought Adaptation of Regional Rainfed Agriculture in China

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhiqiang Wang ◽  
Qing Ma ◽  
Siyu Chen ◽  
Lan Deng ◽  
Jingyi Jiang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Environmental Changes ◽  
Dynamic Balance ◽  
Agricultural Drought ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Drought Adaptation ◽  
Environment Change ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. As global surface temperature continues to rise, increasing evidences have shown that social and natural systems are deeply influenced by climate change. The government and farmers' awareness, as well as measures to adapt to these climate-driven changes, are critical for local sustainable development. In this study, we established a conceptual model of the relationship among human adaptation, development demand and environment changes to analyze the mechanism of agricultural drought adaptation based on an empirical research at the famer and government level. These results show that under the impact of climate change, the study area of drought risk has continued to expand. With this condition, the government and farmers have constantly taken measures to control the development demand and adjust to environmental changes in order to adapt to agricultural drought. Interactions among environmental changes, development demand and adaptation measures have kept the regional nature-society-economy compound ecosystem in dynamic balance. In addition, the effect of these adaptation measures always has an inertia that may induce a longer and deeper impact on the region, which is considered when making adaptation strategies. Rainfed areas are considered to be the most sensitive and unstable to environment change. This study reveals the mechanism of adaptation from a macroscopic perspective and may provide some references on measures and strategies for drought adaptation in other rainfed areas.

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