scholarly journals Urbanization, long-run growth, and the demographic transition

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-47
Author(s):  
Jonathan J. Adams
Keyword(s):  
Low Income ◽  
Demographic Transition ◽  
Wage Gap ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Income Growth ◽  
High Fertility ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
Urban Rural ◽  
Cross Country

Abstract Advanced economies undergo three transitions during their development: (1) transition from a rural to an urban economy, (2) transition from low-income growth to high-income growth, (3) transition from high fertility and mortality rates to low modern levels. The timings of these transitions are correlated in the historical development of most advanced economies. I consider a nonlinear model of endogenous long-run economic and demographic change, in which child quantity-quality substitution is driven by declining child mortality. Because the model captures the interactions between all three transitions, it is able to explain three additional empirical patterns: a declining urban-rural wage gap, a declining rural-urban family size ratio, and most surprisingly, that early urbanization slows development. This third prediction distinguishes the model from other theories of long-run growth, and I document evidence for it in cross-country data.

scholarly journals Population dynamics and economic development

2021 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
pp. 0
Author(s):  
Andrea Caravaggio ◽  
Luca Gori ◽  
Mauro Sodini
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Continuous Time ◽  
Demographic Transition ◽  
Optimal Growth ◽  
Low Fertility ◽  
High Fertility ◽  
Income Per Capita ◽  
Time Optimal ◽  
Per Capita

<p style='text-indent:20px;'>This research develops a continuous-time optimal growth model that accounts for population dynamics resembling the historical pattern of the demographic transition. The Ramsey model then becomes able to generate multiple determinate or indeterminate stationary equilibria and explain the process of the transition from a state with high fertility and low income per capita to a state with low fertility and high income per capita. The article also investigates the emergence of damped or persistent cyclical dynamics.</p>

scholarly journals No Price Like Home: Global House Prices, 1870–2012

2017 ◽  
Vol 107 (2) ◽  
pp. 331-353 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katharina Knoll ◽  
Moritz Schularick ◽  
Thomas Steger
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
World War Ii ◽  
House Prices ◽  
House Price ◽  
World War ◽  
Land Prices ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Price Boom ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
Cross Country

How have house prices evolved over the long run? This paper presents annual house prices for 14 advanced economies since 1870. We show that real house prices stayed constant from the nineteenth to the mid-twentieth century, but rose strongly and with substantial cross-country variation in the second half of the twentieth century. Land prices, not replacement costs, are the key to understanding the trajectory of house prices. Rising land prices explain about 80 percent of the global house price boom that has taken place since World War II. Our findings have implications for the evolution of wealth-to-income ratios, the growth effects of agglomeration, and the price elasticity of housing supply. (JEL C43, N10, N90, R31)

Demographic Change and Long-Run Development

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Demographic Transition ◽  
Economic Transition ◽  
Social Institutions ◽  
Western World ◽  
High Fertility ◽  
Family Structures ◽  
Economic Demography ◽  
Household Decision ◽  
Long Run

Over the last two hundred years, mortality and fertility levels in the Western world have dropped to unprecedented levels. This demographic transition was accompanied by an economic transition that led to widespread education and economic growth after centuries of near-stagnation. At the same time, other changes have occurred in family structures, culture, and the organization of society. Economists have only recently begun to take into account the demographic transition from high mortality and high fertility when modeling and researching economic development. This book reviews recent approaches to economic demography, considering such topics as the bio-geographic origins of comparative development differences; the role of health improvements and mortality decline; as well as physiological, familial, cultural, and social aspects. After an overview of the study of demography and economic demography, the chapters cover subjects including the Neolithic era and the period of the formation of states and social institutions; longevity and economic growth; household decision making and fertility; land inequality, education, and marriage in nineteenth century Prussia; and caste systems and technology in pre-modern societies. The book concludes with a call for further investigation of the institutional and social factors that influence demographics and economies, suggesting that unified growth theory offers a potential approach to studying development.

Health Improvement and Income Growth in the Long Run

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
David N. Weil
Keyword(s):  
Human Capital ◽  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Formal Education ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Income Growth ◽  
Health Improvement ◽  
Income Dynamics ◽  
Long Run ◽  
And Shifts ◽  
Preston Curve

This chapter considers the stylized facts regarding the strong nexus between economic development and health, as reflected by the famous Preston curve. By providing a decomposition of the reasons for recent increases in life expectancy, in terms of increased income (shifts along the Preston curve) and shifts of the Preston Curve, the chapter questions whether third factors, such as institutions, are largely omitted factors in this context. While causality is likely to run both ways, the effect of life expectancy on income and income dynamics plays a key role for long-run development because a reduction in mortality rates and a corresponding increase in longevity affect the incentives to acquire human capital and invest in formal education.

scholarly journals Contrasting Associations Between Diabetes and Cardiovascular Mortality Rates in Low-, Middle-, and High-Income Countries: Cohort Study Data From 143,567 Individuals in 21 Countries in the PURE Study

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ranjit Mohan Anjana ◽  
Viswanathan Mohan ◽  
Sumathy Rangarajan ◽  
Hertzel C Gerstein ◽  
Ulagamadesan Venkatesan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Wealth Index ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Study Data ◽  
High Income ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Urban Rural ◽  
Design And Methods

<b>Objectives: </b>We aimed to compare cardiovascular (CV) events, all-cause and CV mortality rates, among adults with and without diabetes in countries with differing levels of income. <p><b>Research design and methods:<a></a><a> </a></b>Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiological (PURE) enrolled 143,567 adults aged 35 to 70 years from 4 high income countries (HIC), 12 middle income countries (MIC) and 5 low income countries (LIC). The mean follow-up was 9.0±3.0 years. </p> <p><b>Results:</b> Among those with diabetes, CVD rates (LIC 10.3, MIC 9.2, HIC 8.3 per 1000 person years, p<0.001), all-cause mortality (LIC 13.8, MIC 7.2, HIC 4.2 per 1000 person years, p<0.001) and CV mortality (LIC 5.7, MIC 2.2, HIC 1.0 per 1000 person years, p<0.001) were considerably higher in LIC compared to MIC and HIC. Within LIC, mortality was higher in those in the lowest tertile of wealth index (low 14.7%, middle 10.8%, high 6.5%). In contrast to HIC and MIC, the increased CV mortality in those with diabetes in LIC remained unchanged even after adjustment for behavioural risk factors and treatments [Hazards ratio (95% Confidence Interval): 1.89 (1.58 – 2.27) to 1.78 (1.36 – 2.34)].</p> <p><b>Conclusions: </b>CVD rates, all-cause and CV mortality were markedly higher among those with diabetes in LIC compared to MIC and HIC with mortality risk remaining unchanged even after adjustment for risk factors and treatments. There is an urgent need to improve access to care to those with diabetes in LIC to reduce the excess mortality rates, particularly among those in the poorer strata of society. </p>

scholarly journals Contrasting associations between diabetes and cardiovascular mortality rates in low, middle and high-income countries – Cohort study data from 143,567 individuals in 21 countries – The PURE study

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ranjit Mohan Anjana ◽  
Viswanathan Mohan ◽  
Sumathy Rangarajan ◽  
Hertzel C Gerstein ◽  
Ulagamadesan Venkatesan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Wealth Index ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Study Data ◽  
High Income ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Urban Rural ◽  
Design And Methods

<b>Objectives: </b>We aimed to compare cardiovascular (CV) events, all-cause and CV mortality rates, among adults with and without diabetes in countries with differing levels of income. <p><b>Research design and methods:<a></a><a> </a></b>Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiological (PURE) enrolled 143,567 adults aged 35 to 70 years from 4 high income countries (HIC), 12 middle income countries (MIC) and 5 low income countries (LIC). The mean follow-up was 9.0±3.0 years. </p> <p><b>Results:</b> Among those with diabetes, CVD rates (LIC 10.3, MIC 9.2, HIC 8.3 per 1000 person years, p<0.001), all-cause mortality (LIC 13.8, MIC 7.2, HIC 4.2 per 1000 person years, p<0.001) and CV mortality (LIC 5.7, MIC 2.2, HIC 1.0 per 1000 person years, p<0.001) were considerably higher in LIC compared to MIC and HIC. Within LIC, mortality was higher in those in the lowest tertile of wealth index (low 14.7%, middle 10.8%, high 6.5%). In contrast to HIC and MIC, the increased CV mortality in those with diabetes in LIC remained unchanged even after adjustment for behavioural risk factors and treatments [Hazards ratio (95% Confidence Interval): 1.89 (1.58 – 2.27) to 1.78 (1.36 – 2.34)].</p> <p><b>Conclusions: </b>CVD rates, all-cause and CV mortality were markedly higher among those with diabetes in LIC compared to MIC and HIC with mortality risk remaining unchanged even after adjustment for risk factors and treatments. There is an urgent need to improve access to care to those with diabetes in LIC to reduce the excess mortality rates, particularly among those in the poorer strata of society. </p>

scholarly journals Contrasting Associations Between Diabetes and Cardiovascular Mortality Rates in Low-, Middle-, and High-Income Countries: Cohort Study Data From 143,567 Individuals in 21 Countries in the PURE Study

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ranjit Mohan Anjana ◽  
Viswanathan Mohan ◽  
Sumathy Rangarajan ◽  
Hertzel C Gerstein ◽  
Ulagamadesan Venkatesan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Wealth Index ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Study Data ◽  
High Income ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Urban Rural ◽  
Design And Methods

<b>Objectives: </b>We aimed to compare cardiovascular (CV) events, all-cause and CV mortality rates, among adults with and without diabetes in countries with differing levels of income. <p><b>Research design and methods:<a></a><a> </a></b>Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiological (PURE) enrolled 143,567 adults aged 35 to 70 years from 4 high income countries (HIC), 12 middle income countries (MIC) and 5 low income countries (LIC). The mean follow-up was 9.0±3.0 years. </p> <p><b>Results:</b> Among those with diabetes, CVD rates (LIC 10.3, MIC 9.2, HIC 8.3 per 1000 person years, p<0.001), all-cause mortality (LIC 13.8, MIC 7.2, HIC 4.2 per 1000 person years, p<0.001) and CV mortality (LIC 5.7, MIC 2.2, HIC 1.0 per 1000 person years, p<0.001) were considerably higher in LIC compared to MIC and HIC. Within LIC, mortality was higher in those in the lowest tertile of wealth index (low 14.7%, middle 10.8%, high 6.5%). In contrast to HIC and MIC, the increased CV mortality in those with diabetes in LIC remained unchanged even after adjustment for behavioural risk factors and treatments [Hazards ratio (95% Confidence Interval): 1.89 (1.58 – 2.27) to 1.78 (1.36 – 2.34)].</p> <p><b>Conclusions: </b>CVD rates, all-cause and CV mortality were markedly higher among those with diabetes in LIC compared to MIC and HIC with mortality risk remaining unchanged even after adjustment for risk factors and treatments. There is an urgent need to improve access to care to those with diabetes in LIC to reduce the excess mortality rates, particularly among those in the poorer strata of society. </p>

Poverty-Reducing Growth Strategy in Poor Countries

2005 ◽  
pp. 103-134
Author(s):  
Rodney Schmidt
Keyword(s):  
Low Income ◽  
Poverty Reduction ◽  
Growth Strategy ◽  
Poverty Traps ◽  
Income Poverty ◽  
Poor Countries ◽  
Land Redistribution ◽  
Policy Choices ◽  
The North ◽  
Urban Rural

This paper synthesizes and develops research undertaken by participants in The North-South Institute project, "Macroeconomic policy choices for growth and poverty reduction" in low- income developing countries.1 The project analysed the features of poverty and growth in seven poor countries of varying circumstances and proposed macroeconomic and growth policies for poverty reduction for them. The research was guided by the question: "How does poverty inform growth strategy?" Our research provides evidence of the channels through which growth and distribution or poverty processes depend on each other and respond to policy together. We encapsulate the messages of these case studies in the following six propositions, discussed at length in the paper: i) macroeconomic stability reduces poverty; ii) land redistribution enhances growth; iii) income poverty traps constrain growth; iv) urban-rural growth disparities drive income inequality; v) regional poverty traps resist growth, and vi) ley growth policies can aggravate poverty gaps.  The propositions suggest growth policies that may be either of two types in terms of impact on growth and distribution. They have the potential to enhance both growth and distribution (win-win) or to enhance growth while aggravating income gaps or vice versa (win-lose).

Dampak Insentif Pajak Perumahan Terhadap Potensi Penerimaan Pajak Negara Dan Peningkatan Pendapatan Masyarakat : Kasus Provinsi Papua

2016 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 13-22
Author(s):  
Towaf Totok Irawan
Keyword(s):  
Low Income ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Tax Incentives ◽  
High Price ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Primary Input ◽  
State Revenue ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

Until now the government and private sector have not been able to address the backlog of 13.5 million housing units for ownership status and 7.6 million units for residential status. The high price of land has led to the high price of the house so that low-income communities (MBR) is not able to reach out to make a home purchase. In addition to the high price of land, tax factors also contribute to the high price of the house. The government plans to issue a policy for the provision of tax incentives, ie abolish VAT on home-forming material transaction. This policy is expected to house prices become cheaper, so the demand for housing increases, and encourage the relevant sectors to intensify its role in the construction of houses. It is expected to replace the lost tax potential and increase incomes. Analysis of the impact of tax incentives housing to potential state revenue and an increase in people's income, especially in Papua province is using the table IO because in addition to looking at the role each sector can also see the impact on taxes (income tax 21 Pph 25 Pph, VAT), and incomes (wage). Although in the short-term impact is still small, but very rewarding in the long run. Keywords: Backlog, Gross Input, Primary Input, Intermediate Input

scholarly journals Did Lockdown Work? An Economist’s Cross-Country Comparison

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian Bjørnskov
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Rates ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Country Comparison ◽  
Clear Association ◽  
Policy Measures ◽  
Two Indices ◽  
Cross Country

Abstract I explore the association between the severity of lockdown policies in the first half of 2020 and mortality rates. Using two indices from the Blavatnik Centre’s COVID-19 policy measures and comparing weekly mortality rates from 24 European countries in the first halves of 2017–2020, addressing policy endogeneity in two different ways, and taking timing into account, I find no clear association between lockdown policies and mortality development.

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