Conclusion and Outlook

This concluding chapter discusses this book's origins in the argument that the demographic transition is a key turning point for long-run development, not only in terms of a change in the regime of population dynamics toward low fertility and mortality, but also in the process of long-run economic development. The observed similarities in the transition process across space and time suggest that a better understanding of the reasons for such occurrences as the delay in the development of some countries might provide insights that are relevant beyond academic interest. The chapter argues that more interdisciplinary work between economists, demographers, and historians are needed to address the many facets that are covered only in passing, or not at all.

Adult Mortality and Modern Growth

This chapter explores the role of increased adult longevity and technological progress in the transition from Malthusian equilibrium to modern growth. Empirical evidence suggests a general upward trend in life expectancy at birth and in adult survival rate of countries and a positive correlation between these two variables and income. A first strand of literature investigates the causes of mortality decline in western countries. Scholars can be divided into two main groups: the first attributes the observed mortality decline mainly to income growth via better nutrition, and the second emphasizes the role of public health and sanitary intervention. Meanwhile, a second strand of literature explores various channels through which mortality decline affects income.

Intrahousehold Decision Making and Fertility

This chapter analyzes the implications of modeling fertility choices as outcomes of intrahousehold conflict and bargaining. It argues for a reformulation of fertility theories that are embedded in more realistic theories of household formation and joint decision making within the household. Empirical evidence suggests that disagreement regarding fertility choices is commonplace. In addition to a level difference in the desired fertility of women and men, there is evidence of considerable heterogeneity across households. The data on fertility preferences suggests at least the possibility that within-household disagreement on fertility is an important determinant of fertility outcomes. The chapter also shows how the vast majority of economic models of fertility have been based on a unitary model of the household, where the household is conceived as a single entity with a single utility function.

Long-Run Development and the New Cultural Economics

This chapter talks about three major intertwined themes that emerge in the new cultural economics: causal effects of culture on economic outcomes and institutions, the origins of culture, and the issues of cultural transmission, persistence, and change. It emphasizes the studies related to the field of long-run economic growth and development which explores culture as one of the key “deep determinants” of economic performance. The chapter reviews some of the recent empirical studies attempting to identify the causal effects of culture, and examines the research on the origins of culture, its social benefits, and costs. It also considers the evidence on cultural persistence and discusses the mechanisms of cultural transmission and change.

Caste Systems and Technology in Premodern Societies

This chapter sheds new light on the effects of social institutions on long-run development. In particular, it explores the impact of caste systems during the early phases of economic and demographic development through how the systems influenced the possibilities for labor specialization. Based on data for precolonial social organization across different ethnicities, the chapter provides novel evidence that supports the hypothesis that caste systems were indeed conducive to specialization and technological sophistication. The hypothesis builds on the idea that caste systems, by promoting strong ties of solidarity and cooperation within groups, might have facilitated and accelerated the process of labor specialization and technological advancement. Moreover, the endogamous group might have represented the natural basin from which to recruit labor for extending production beyond the family unit.

Land Inequality, Education, and Marriage: Empirical Evidence from Nineteenth-Century Prussia

This chapter offers an account of how institutional factors affect marriage, fertility, and education decisions. It reveals that higher landownership concentration was associated with lower enrollment rates as well as a negative relationship between marriage and enrollment rates, which suggests that political and economic inequality might be an important cofactor of the demographic and economic transitions. According to the study, the initial existence (or formation)of an economic elite will lead to the concentration of political power in the hands of few, which will in turn lead to the introduction of political institutions designed to sustain inequality. Such societies fail to adopt redistributive policies that allow for an optimal investment in physical and human capital. Therefore, in the long run, elite-based societies will not develop institutions conducive to sustainable economic growth.

Did Longer Lives Buy Economic Growth? From Malthus to Lucas and Ben-Porath

This chapter provides a detailed theoretical and empirical discussion of how increases in longevity can impact the formation of human capital by favoring the transmission of knowledge through longer contact times between individuals in different age cohorts. By contemplating whether improvements in longevity were responsible for the economic transition, the chapter provides insights into the dynamics and measurement of longevity and presents different mechanisms through which longer lives affect development. These include the contact time available for the young for learning from the elderly and an incentive effect in terms of longer amortization periods for educational investments. Findings suggest that the reduction in mortality in prime working ages (rather than longevity in terms of expected life span) is key for the incentives to invest in formal schooling.

The Long Shadow of History: The Biogeographical Origins of Comparative Economic Development

This chapter explains how the growing evidence for the relevance of preindustrial policies naturally questions the endogenous emergence of the institutions and the environmental conditions that favored their implementation. The literature recently moved to exploring the determinants of the economic and demographic transitions, and hence of comparative developmental patterns, in the very long run. Examples of these newly explored factors are the persistent effects of historical events, such as the spread of humans across the globe and the differential timing of the Neolithic transition in different regions of the world. Another aspect in this context is geographical variation in agricultural suitability, which shaped the incentives for long-term investment, delayed consumption, and might have generated variability in the long-term orientation across societies.

The Demographic Transition and Long-Term Development

This introductory chapter discusses the role of the demographic transition as a key turning point for economic development. It begins by describing the stylized pattern of the demographic transition and detailing the facts regarding similarities and differences across countries. By looking at the close links between demographic and economic development, the chapter highlights the different mechanisms through which the demographic transition affects economic growth. It also illustrates the implications of the nonlinear dynamics of the demographic transition for economic development through the human capital-acquisition channel; addresses the fundamental determinants of the transition; and provides an overview of likely implications for future development.

Human Physiological Development and Economic Growth

This chapter elaborates on the microeconomics of the income–health nexus and incorporates fertility decisions. It examines the trade-off between the number of offspring and the health investments in those offspring, as reflected by body size, thereby providing a new interpretation of the quantity–quality trade-off in a health context. A key insight from this study is that demographic change is essential to understanding the preindustrial growth record as well as the (relative) timing of the take-off to sustained growth. The major motivation for this effort is existing evidence, which largely is found in the fields of biology and physical anthropology, that humans (and other mammals) face a fundamental trade-off between size of offspring and number of offspring.