scholarly journals Assessing the risk of plant species invasion under different climate change scenarios in California

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-31
Author(s):  
Jorge L. Renteria ◽  
Gina M. Skurka Darin ◽  
Edwin D. Grosholz
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Plant Species ◽  
Species Distribution ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Individual Species ◽  
Biological Traits ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Number Of Species

Abstract Using Species Distribution Models (SDMs), we predicted the distribution of 170 plant species under different climate scenarios (current and future climatic conditions) and used this information to create invasion risk maps to identify potential hotspots of invasion in California. Using species’ predicted area in combination with some biological traits associated with invasiveness (growth form, reproduction mechanisms and age of maturity), the risk of invasion by individual species was also assesed. A higher number of species would find suitable climatic conditions along the coast; the Central Western (CW) and South Western (SW) were ecoregions where a higher number of species was predicted. Overall, hotspots of species distribution were similar under current and future climatic conditions; however, individual species’ predicted area (increase or decrease) was variable depending on the climate change scenario and the greenhouse gas emission. Out of the 170 species assessed, 22% ranked as high-risk species, with herbs, grasses and vines accounting for 78% within this risk class and a high proportion (67%) of Asteraceae species ranked as high risk. This study suggests that current climatic conditions of the central and south coastal regions of California would be considered as hotspots of new invasions, and for some species this risk might increase with hotter and drier future climatic conditions.

scholarly journals Dynamics of invasive alien plant species in China under climate change scenarios

2021 ◽  
Vol 129 ◽  
pp. 107919
Author(s):  
Wenqin Tu ◽  
Qinli Xiong ◽  
Xiaoping Qiu ◽  
Yongmei Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Plant Species ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Alien Plant Species ◽  
Alien Plant ◽  
Invasive Alien Plant

scholarly journals Using species distribution modelling to determine opportunities for trophic rewilding under future scenarios of climate change

2018 ◽  
Vol 373 (1761) ◽  
pp. 20170446 ◽  
Author(s):  
Scott Jarvie ◽  
Jens-Christian Svenning
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Species Distribution ◽  
Species Distribution Modelling ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
First Century ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Distribution Modelling ◽  
Major Barrier ◽  
Methodological Choices ◽  
Biodiversity And Ecosystem Function

Trophic rewilding, the (re)introduction of species to promote self-regulating biodiverse ecosystems, is a future-oriented approach to ecological restoration. In the twenty-first century and beyond, human-mediated climate change looms as a major threat to global biodiversity and ecosystem function. A critical aspect in planning trophic rewilding projects is the selection of suitable sites that match the needs of the focal species under both current and future climates. Species distribution models (SDMs) are currently the main tools to derive spatially explicit predictions of environmental suitability for species, but the extent of their adoption for trophic rewilding projects has been limited. Here, we provide an overview of applications of SDMs to trophic rewilding projects, outline methodological choices and issues, and provide a synthesis and outlook. We then predict the potential distribution of 17 large-bodied taxa proposed as trophic rewilding candidates and which represent different continents and habitats. We identified widespread climatic suitability for these species in the discussed (re)introduction regions under current climates. Climatic conditions generally remain suitable in the future, although some species will experience reduced suitability in parts of these regions. We conclude that climate change is not a major barrier to trophic rewilding as currently discussed in the literature.This article is part of the theme issue ‘Trophic rewilding: consequences for ecosystems under global change’.

scholarly journals Small-scale plant species distribution in snowbeds and its sensitivity to climate change

Plant Ecology ◽  
2008 ◽  
Vol 200 (1) ◽  
pp. 91-104 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian Schöb ◽  
Peter M. Kammer ◽  
Philippe Choler ◽  
Heinz Veit
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Plant Species ◽  
Species Distribution ◽  
Small Scale

scholarly journals The potential current distribution of the coypu (Myocastor coypus) in Europe and climate change induced shifts in the near future

NeoBiota ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 58 ◽  
pp. 129-160
Author(s):  
Anna Schertler ◽  
Wolfgang Rabitsch ◽  
Dietmar Moser ◽  
Johannes Wessely ◽  
Franz Essl
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Current Distribution ◽  
Current Knowledge ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
The Black Sea ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Grid Cells ◽  
Myocastor Coypus ◽  
Negative Impacts ◽  
Management Recommendations

The coypu (Myocastor coypus) is a semi-aquatic rodent native to South America which has become invasive in Europe and other parts of the world. Although recently listed as species of European Union concern in the EU Invasive Alien Species Regulation, an analysis of the current European occurrence and of its potential current and future distribution was missing yet. We collected 24,232 coypu records (corresponding to 25,534 grid cells at 5 × 5 km) between 1980 and 2018 from a range of sources and 28 European countries and analysed them spatiotemporally, categorising them into persistence levels. Using logistic regression, we constructed consensus predictions across all persistence levels to depict the potential current distribution of the coypu in Europe and its change under four different climate scenarios for 2041–2060. From all presence grid cells, 45.5% showed at least early signs of establishment (records temporally covering a minimum of one generation length, i.e. 5 years), whereas 9.8% were considered as containing established populations (i.e. three generation lengths of continuous coverage). The mean temperature of the warmest quarter (bio10), mean diurnal temperature range (bio2) and the minimum temperature of the coldest month (bio6) were the most important of the analysed predictors. In total, 42.9% of the study area are classified as suitable under current climatic conditions, of which 72.6% are to current knowledge yet unoccupied; therefore, we show that the coypu has, by far, not yet reached all potentially suitable regions in Europe. Those cover most of temperate Europe (Atlantic, Continental and Pannonian biogeographic region), as well as the coastal regions of the Mediterranean and the Black Sea. A comparison of the suitable and occupied areas showed that none of the affected countries has reached saturation by now. Under climate change scenarios, suitable areas will slightly shift towards Northern regions, while a general decrease in suitability is predicted for Southern and Central Europe (overall decrease of suitable areas 2–8% depending on the scenario). Nevertheless, most regions that are currently suitable for coypus are likely to be so in the future. We highlight the need to further investigate upper temperature limits in order to properly interpret future climatic suitability for the coypu in Southern Europe. Based on our results, we identify regions that are most at risk for future invasions and provide management recommendations. We hope that this study will help to improve the allocation of efforts for future coypu research and contribute to harmonised management, which is essential to reduce negative impacts of the coypu and to prevent further spread in Europe.

scholarly journals Current and future suitable habitat areas for Nasuella olivacea (Gray, 1865) in Colombia and Ecuador and analysis of its distribution across different land uses

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pablo Medrano-Vizcaíno ◽  
Patricia Gutiérrez-Salazar
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Wildlife Conservation ◽  
Distribution Patterns ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Ecological Niche Models

Nasuella olivacea is an endemic mammal from the Andes of Ecuador and Colombia. Due to its rarity, aspects about its natural history, ecology and distribution patterns are not well known, therefore, research is needed to generate knowledge about this carnivore and a first step is studying suitable habitat areas. We performed Ecological Niche Models and applied future climate change scenarios (2.6 and 8.5 RCP) to determine the potential distribution of this mammal in Colombia and Ecuador, with current and future climate change conditions; furthermore, we analysed its distribution along several land covers. We found that N. olivacea is likely to be found in areas where no records have been reported previously; likewise, climate change conditions would increase suitable distribution areas. Concerning land cover, 73.4% of N. olivacea potential distribution was located outside Protected Areas (PA), 46.1% in Forests and 40.3% in Agricultural Lands. These findings highlight the need to further research understudied species, furthering our understanding about distribution trends and responses to changing climatic conditions, as well as informig future PA designing. These are essential tools for supporting wildlife conservation plans, being applicable for rare species whose biology and ecology remain unknown.

Community Ecology of Stream Fishes: Concepts, Approaches, and Techniques

2010 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Fish Species ◽  
Species Distribution ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Consensus Method ◽  
Stream Fish ◽  
Emission Scenarios ◽  
Distribution Models

<em>Abstract</em>.—Stream fish are expected to be influenced by climate change as they are ectothermic animals living in lotic systems. Using fish presence–absence records in 1,110 stream sites across France, our study aimed at (1) modeling current and future distributions of 35 stream fish species, (2) using an ensemble forecasting approach (i.e., several general circulation models [GCM] × greenhouse gas emission scenarios [GES] × statistical species distribution models [SDM] combinations) to quantify the variability in the future fish species distribution due to each component, and (3) assessing the potential impacts of climate change on fish species distribution and assemblage structure by using a consensus method that accounted for the variability in future projections.

scholarly journals Impact of Climate Change on the Distribution of Euscaphis japonica (Staphyleaceae) Trees

Forests ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 525
Author(s):  
Keliang Zhang ◽  
Lanping Sun ◽  
Jun Tao
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Policy Development ◽  
Performance Metrics ◽  
Southern China ◽  
Eastern China ◽  
Individual Species ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
The North ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation

Analyzing the effects of climate change on forest ecosystems and individual species is of great significance for incorporating management responses to conservation policy development. Euscaphis japonica (Staphyleaceae), a small tree or deciduous shrub, is distributed among the open forests or mountainous valleys of Vietnam, Korea, Japan, and southern China. Meanwhile, it is also used as a medicinal and ornamental plant. Nonetheless, the extents of E. japonica forest have gradually shrunk as a result of deforestation, together with the regional influence of climate change. The present study employed two methods for modeling species distribution, Maxent and Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction (GARP), to model the potential distribution of this species and the effects of climate change on it. Our results suggest that both models performed favorably, but GARP outperformed Maxent for all performance metrics. The temperate and subtropical regions of eastern China where the species had been recorded was very suitable for E. japonica growth. Temperature and precipitation were two primary environmental factors affecting the distribution of E. japonica. Under climate change scenarios, the range of suitable habitats for E. japonica will expand geographically toward the north. Our findings may be used in several ways such as identifying currently undocumented locations of E. japonica, sites where it may occur in the future, or potential locations where the species could be introduced and so contribute to the conservation and management of this species.

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