scholarly journals How populists securitize elections to win them: the 2015 double elections in Turkey

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-24
Author(s):  
Osman Sahin
Keyword(s):  
Theoretical Framework ◽  
Negative Image ◽  
Electoral Success ◽  
Justice And Development Party ◽  
General Elections ◽  
Kurdish Question ◽  
Populist Movements

Abstract This study presents a new theoretical framework for understanding one of the ways in which populists generate support in elections. It argues that populist movements securitize elections by triggering perceptions of ontological insecurity among voters. Through this strategy, populist movements amplify voters’ negative image of the country they live in and the challenges they face, which contributes to populist movements’ electoral success. Building upon this theoretical framework, this study offers an explanation for the 2015 double general elections in Turkey. The Justice and Development Party (Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi, AKP) experienced disappointment after losing its parliamentary majority in the June 2015 elections. However, the AKP increased its votes by 8.6 percent in the November 2015 elections. Between these two elections, the AKP had used the Kurdish question to trigger perceptions of ontological insecurity, which enabled it to securitize the elections in November. This strategy helped the AKP win the November elections.

scholarly journals WHAT HAS HAPPENED IN AKP YEARS IN TURKEY: THE CONDITION OF ISLAMISM, TURKISH ISLAM SYNTHESIS, AND ISLAMIST VIOLENCE

2008 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 13-29
Author(s):  
Fatma Sündal
Keyword(s):  
Legal Issues ◽  
Political Issues ◽  
Justice And Development Party ◽  
General Elections ◽  
Second Period

AKP (Justice and Development Party) can be accepted as the last and most powerful representative of Islamism in Turkey. The party came to power alone, after the general elections in 2002 and in 2007. Within its fi rst period of power, AKP claimed divergence from its extreme Islamist views and it gained trust among the majority of intellectuals. Furthermore, some socialist and liberal intellectuals supported most claims of AKP, in its fi rst period of power. In the second period, AKP’s discourse began to have references to şeria law, more frequently; and fi nally, it lost the support of liberals and socialists. We witnessed some important and mysterious assassinations in the years 2006 and 2007 before the 2007 elections; and pre-elections period of 2007 was characterised by legal issues, which put AKP in a ‘suff ering’ position, once more. This essay is an eff ort in re-evaluating the tension between Islamism and laicism and some political issues of AKP years of Turkey, including four chosen acts of violence against laicite defenders or non-Muslims.

scholarly journals POPULISM IN BRAZIL’S 2018 GENERAL ELECTIONS: AN ANALYSIS OF BOLSONARO’S CAMPAIGN SPEECHES

2020 ◽  
pp. 103-127
Author(s):  
Eduardo Ryo Tamaki ◽  
Mario Fuks
Keyword(s):  
Textual Analysis ◽  
Theoretical Framework ◽  
Analysis Method ◽  
Preliminary Results ◽  
Campaign Speeches ◽  
General Elections

Abstract Through an analysis of Bolsonaro’s speeches during his official campaign, we aim to identify the presence of populist traits in his discourse. Preliminary results suggest that Bolsonaro’s discourse have, compared to its predecessors, higher levels of populism. As a theoretical framework, we use the ideational approach to populism. The data was collected and analyzed by Team Populism using the “holistic grading” textual analysis method. Results revealed that, despite his anti-elite, polarizing, and Manichean speech, Bolsonaro is an incomplete populist. In his rhetoric, populist traits vie for space with patriotic elements.

A Model for Right-Wing Populist Electoral Success?

Populism ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 1-32
Author(s):  
Wolfgang Muno ◽  
Daniel Stockemer
Keyword(s):  
Theoretical Model ◽  
Important Variable ◽  
Typical Case ◽  
Vote Choice ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Refugee Crisis ◽  
Electoral Success ◽  
High Government ◽  
General Elections ◽  
Immigration Attitudes

Abstract This article adds to the large literature on right-wing populist parties (RWPP), explaining how anti-immigrant sentiments become salient for vote choice. Within the large literature on RWPP, anti-immigration attitudes are the most important variable to explain the vote share of RWPP. Yet, recent research shows that there is not always an empirical effect between having anti-immigrant attitudes and voting for the RWPP. In this article, we develop a theoretical model that explains the conditions under which anti-immigration attitudes matter. We then test this model based on the case of the AfD in Germany, a typical case for a right-wing populist party exploiting anti-immigrant sentiment. Focusing on the AfD in Germany, we illustrate that the refugee crisis in 2015 in combination with a perception of high government unresponsiveness to stop the crisis provided the structural conditions necessary to activate latent anti-immigration sentiment among large parts of the population. Using a structural analysis and individual panel data for Germany’s general elections in 2013 and 2017, we find that immigration critical attitudes were already present among parts of the population in 2013 but immigration was a secondary topic in the 2013 election, even among AfD voters. Due to the immigration crisis in 2015, immigration became a salient topic. The combination of a perceived external crisis or shock combined with a perceived government’s unresponsiveness quickly offered a winning formula for the AfD. A probability probe for two other countries (Sweden and Italy) with different contexts also show salience for the model.

scholarly journals Urban conditions for the rise of the far right in the global city of Frankfurt: From austerity urbanism, post-democracy and gentrification to regressive collectivity

Urban Studies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 58 (1) ◽  
pp. 131-147 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Mullis
Keyword(s):  
Driving Forces ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Downward Mobility ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Frankfurt Am Main ◽  
Electoral Success ◽  
Left Behind ◽  
First Results ◽  
General Elections ◽  
Urban Conditions

In Germany, the electoral success of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is one of the most obvious signs of the rise of the far right. In public debates this tends to be associated with Eastern Germany and rural regions. What is neglected is the fact that the party was also remarkably successful in less privileged urban districts across Germany. In this paper I focus on the urban conditions for the rise of the far right. I do so by presenting first results of ethnographic research in two neighbourhoods of Frankfurt am Main. Both – Riederwald and Nied – are marginalised and the AfD gained considerable support there in the 2017 general elections. In the accounts given in 14 expert interviews I identify three crucial urban processes: austerity urbanism, post-democracy and gentrification. Relating them to findings of long-term studies on right-wing attitudes as well as to the concept of ‘downward mobility’, I argue that these processes increase the competition for resources and strengthen feelings of being left behind as well as experiences of being abandoned by political representatives – which are driving forces for the rise of the far right. And yet these experiences alone do not provide sufficient reason to explain the rise of the far right. They are general processes in the neighbourhoods. However, it seems that intersections with existing group-focused enmities drive a shift from social to regressive collectivity, which raises the potential for far-right political subjectification.

scholarly journals Conceived in Harlesden: Candidate-Centred Campaigning in British General Elections

2018 ◽  
Vol 73 (1) ◽  
pp. 127-146 ◽  
Author(s):  
Caitlin Milazzo ◽  
Joshua Townsley
Keyword(s):  
Personal Characteristics ◽  
General Election ◽  
Election Campaign ◽  
Election Campaigns ◽  
Party Affiliation ◽  
Electoral Success ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
Candidate Characteristics ◽  
General Elections

Abstract Recent decades have seen an increasing trend towards the personalisation of election campaigns, even in systems where candidates have few structural incentives to emphasise their personal appeal. In this article, we build on a growing literature that points to the importance of candidate characteristics in determining electoral success. Using a dataset composed of more than 3700 leaflets distributed during the 2015 and 2017 general elections, we explore the conditions under which messages emphasising the personal characteristics of prospective parliamentary candidates appear in British general election campaign materials. Even when we account for party affiliation, we find that there are important contextual and individual-level factors that predict the use of candidate-centred messaging.

The Politics between the Justice and Development Party (AKP) and the Gülen Movement in Turkey: Issues of Human Rights and Rising Authoritarianism

2015 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Fait Muedini
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Social Services ◽  
Electoral Politics ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Human Rights Abuses ◽  
Electoral Success ◽  
Islamic Movements ◽  
Justice And Development Party ◽  
The Government ◽  
Hizmet Movement

AbstractI examine the rising tension between two Islamic movements in Turkey: The Justice and Development Party (AKP) and Fethullah Gülen’s Hizmet Movement within the context of increased human rights abuses by the government in Turkey. I argue that Gülen and Hizmet are a continued concern for Recep Tayyip Erdogan and AKP because of Hizmet’s social services, primarily in the realm of education. Furthermore, their influence in public ranks further troubles Erdogan. However, it seems that because of Hizmet’s disinterest with electoral politics, along with an absence of other challengers to the ruling government party’s electoral success, Erdogan and the AKP will continue to hold political power, at least for the short term. Furthermore, this case illustrates Erdogan’s willingness to carry out increased authoritarian actions, as well as a willingness to violate the human rights of civil society actors in Turkey.

A Logical Model for Predicting Minority Representation: Application to Redistricting and Voting Rights Cases

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-16
Author(s):  
YUKI ATSUSAKA
Keyword(s):  
Voting Rights ◽  
Voting Rights Act ◽  
Minority Representation ◽  
Logical Model ◽  
Exact Probability ◽  
Electoral Success ◽  
Candidate Emergence ◽  
General Elections ◽  
Minority Candidate ◽  
State Legislative

Understanding when and why minority candidates emerge and win in particular districts entails critical implications for redistricting and the Voting Rights Act. I introduce a quantitatively predictive logical model of minority candidate emergence and electoral success—a mathematical formula based on deductive logic that can logically explain and accurately predict the exact probability at which minority candidates run for office and win in given districts. I show that the logical model can predict about 90% of minority candidate emergence and 95% of electoral success by leveraging unique data of mayoral elections in Louisiana from 1986 to 2016 and state legislative general elections in 36 states in 2012 and 2014. I demonstrate that the logical model can be used to answer many important questions about minority representation in redistricting and voting rights cases. All applications of the model can be easily implemented via an open-source software logical.

scholarly journals Lessons Learned from the Electoral Experience of the Justice and Development Party (Adalet Ve Kalkinma Parti) 2002-2011

2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 43-52
Author(s):  
Nadhera Mohammad Qassem ◽  
Nor Hafeza Mohtar ◽  
Azhana Mohamad
Keyword(s):  
Focal Point ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Political Agenda ◽  
Electoral Process ◽  
Electoral Success ◽  
Secondary Sources ◽  
Opposition Party ◽  
Justice And Development Party ◽  
The Masses ◽  
Newspaper Articles

This paper examines the electoral process in Turkey concerning the rise of the Justice Development Party (Adalet Ve Kalkinma Parti or AKP) and their experiences in the Turkish electoral process. The evolution of AKP as a major opposition party until its electoral success is explored. The focal point of this paper is to examine the partys evolution, particularly in the area of changes in strategies, political agenda and responses to external and internal challenges. This study fnds that AKP has managed to win consecutive Turkish elections and has maintained its support from the masses by means of moderate and modern approaches and reforms. This study is based on secondary sources. Books and scholarly articles concerning the issue were examined along with newspaper articles. Furthermore, this paper is purely a descriptive one and not based on any particular theory.

Is a ‘Left Populism’ Possible?

2019 ◽  
Vol 27 (2) ◽  
pp. 3-39 ◽  
Author(s):  
Panagiotis Sotiris
Keyword(s):  
Social Relations ◽  
Theoretical Framework ◽  
Class Analysis ◽  
Ernesto Laclau ◽  
The People ◽  
Populist Movements

Abstract This article deals with theories and political projects that can be defined as ‘left populism’. It begins with a reading and critique of the work of Ernesto Laclau on the theory of populism and then moves to recent debates about the possibility of left-populist movements. In contrast to these positions it attempts to present an alternative theoretical framework based on Gramscian notions, in order to rethink the notion of the people in ways that do not de-link it from class analysis and social relations of production.

scholarly journals La competencia partidista en las elecciones generales de 2015: factores contextuales y anclajes ideológicos

2019 ◽  
pp. 158
Author(s):  
Irene Delgado Sotillos
Keyword(s):  
Survey Data ◽  
Theoretical Framework ◽  
Sociological Research ◽  
Electoral Studies ◽  
General Elections ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Political Scene

Este trabajo se sitúa en el contexto de los estudios electorales. Loscambios acontecidos en el escenario político español tras las elecciones generalesde 2015 demandan un análisis de los factores individuales del voto que han guiadolas orientaciones de los electores. Partiendo de un marco teórico explicativo generaly con análisis de datos de encuestas del Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicastratamos de aislar los determinantes de carácter contextual y el peso de los anclajesideológicos que han orientado el voto a los principales partidos de ámbito estatal.Los resultados muestran que tanto los factores a corto plazo como factores estructuraleshan sido tomados en consideración por los votantes para apoyar a las formacionespolíticas, generado una fuga de votos de los partidos tradicionales hacialas nuevas formaciones políticas, dentro de la estructura del marco ideológico.In the context of electoral studies, this article explores the changesthat took place in the Spanish political scene after the general elections of 2015.The analysis of the individual voting factors that guided the electoral behaviorstarts from a general theoretical framework, and examine survey data from theCenter for Sociological Research. It tries to isolate the determinants of contextualcharacters and the weight of the ideological anchors that have dominated the votefor the main parties. The results show that combination of both the short-termfactors and the long- term factors, where the ideology plays an important role,have conditioned the support to the new political formations generating an importantchange in the preferences of the voters but conditioned by the ideologicalframework.

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