scholarly journals Flexible Causal Inference for Political Science

2018 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
pp. 54-71 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bear F. Braumoeller ◽  
Giampiero Marra ◽  
Rosalba Radice ◽  
Aisha E. Bradshaw
Keyword(s):  
Causal Inference ◽  
Political Science ◽  
Functional Form ◽  
State Of The Art ◽  
State Behavior ◽  
Competing Models ◽  
Causal Impact ◽  
Substantial Bias ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Measuring the causal impact of state behavior on outcomes is one of the biggest methodological challenges in the field of political science, for two reasons: behavior is generally endogenous, and the threat of unobserved variables that confound the relationship between behavior and outcomes is pervasive. Matching methods, widely considered to be the state of the art in causal inference in political science, are generally ill-suited to inference in the presence of unobserved confounders. Heckman-style multiple-equation models offer a solution to this problem; however, they rely on functional-form assumptions that can produce substantial bias in estimates of average treatment effects. We describe a category of models, flexible joint likelihood models, that account for both features of the data while avoiding reliance on rigid functional-form assumptions. We then assess these models’ performance in a series of neutral simulations, in which they produce substantial (55% to ${>}$90%) reduction in bias relative to competing models. Finally, we demonstrate their utility in a reanalysis of Simmons’ (2000) classic study of the impact of Article VIII commitment on compliance with the IMF’s currency-restriction regime.

scholarly journals Causal Inference, International Law, And Maritime Disputes

AJIL Unbound ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 115 ◽  
pp. 389-393
Author(s):  
Benjamin J. Appel
Keyword(s):  
Causal Inference ◽  
International Law ◽  
Law Of The Sea ◽  
International Courts ◽  
Legal Scholarship ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Maritime Disputes ◽  
Empirical Tests ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Sara Mitchell and Andrew Owsiak's examination of the impact of UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and Article 287 declarations on the peaceful resolution of maritime disputes significantly advances the literature on the relationship between international law/international courts and maritime issues. To their credit, the authors employ a wide range of empirical tests in the article to provide readers with confidence in the empirical results. Nonetheless, there are some important limitations in their approach. Drawing on insights from the causal inference literature, I argue that Mitchell and Owsiak's empirical analyses suffer from two biases that both (1) raise concerns about the causal relationships identified in the article, and (2) suggest some important scope conditions in its empirical findings. I investigate the biases and propose suggestions for legal scholarship to produce more credible results.

scholarly journals Mastering Panel Metrics: Causal Impact of Democracy on Growth

2019 ◽  
Vol 109 ◽  
pp. 77-82 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shuowen Chen ◽  
Victor Chernozhukov ◽  
Iván Fernández-Val
Keyword(s):  
Panel Data ◽  
Statistical Inference ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
State Of The Art ◽  
Panel Data Analysis ◽  
High Dimensional ◽  
Econometric Methods ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Causal Impact ◽  
The Relationship

We revisit the panel data analysis of Acemoglu et al. (forthcoming) on the relationship between democracy and economic growth using state-of-the-art econometric methods. We argue that panel data settings are high-dimensional, resulting in estimators to be biased to a degree that invalidates statistical inference. We remove these biases by using simple analytical and sample-splitting methods, and thereby restore valid statistical inference. We find that debiased fixed effects and Arellano-Bond estimators produce higher estimates of the long-run effect of democracy on growth, providing even stronger support for the key hypothesis of Acemoglu et al.

scholarly journals Considering population and war: a critical and neglected aspect of conflict studies

2009 ◽  
Vol 364 (1532) ◽  
pp. 3081-3092 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bradley A. Thayer
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Population Change ◽  
Great Power ◽  
International Studies ◽  
Conflict Studies ◽  
Small Power ◽  
Causal Impact ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

This study analyses the relationship between war and population. The impact of the growth and decline of population on important types of warfare—great power, small power, civil war as well as terrorism—is illustrated, with the objective in each case to be descriptive of risk. I find that population change has a significant impact on each, with the greatest causal impact on small power conflicts, civil war and upon terrorism. I conclude with some reasons for guarded optimism about the incorporation of population as a component of analysis in the discipline of international studies, and for the potential to devise new solutions to prevent conflict.

scholarly journals Food-Away-from-Home Expenditure in Mexico during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Micro-Econometric Analysis

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antonio Aguilar-Lopez ◽  
Aleš Kuhar
Keyword(s):  
Food Insecurity ◽  
Functional Form ◽  
Step Method ◽  
Budget Share ◽  
Food Away From Home ◽  
Response Data ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Censored Response ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

The propagation of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) reshaped the relationship between income and food-away-from-home (FAFH) expenditure in Mexico during 2020. Although the number of households participating in this market fell across income deciles and regions due to the pandemic, the impact on their budget shares is not uniform. Using data from the Encuesta Nacional de Ingresos y Gastos de los Hogares (ENIGH) 2020, we estimated an Engel curve of the Working-Lesser functional form for FAFH. Among the independent variables are the number of family members 65 years of age and older, and dummies to indicate whether the household experienced food insecurity or received remittances. The estimation was carried out following the Heckman two-step method, suitable for censored-response data. The results suggest that the budget share for FAFH drops as income increases. The number of older adults and food insecurity discourage the decision to participate in FAFH expenditure and increase its budget share, whereas remittances encourage participation and reduce its budget share. The corrected conditional elasticity is 0.4609; the sign and the magnitude indicate that FAFH is a necessity good.

Modelling the impact of functionality, cognition, and mood state on awareness in people with Alzheimer’s disease

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Anna Fischer ◽  
Marcia Cristina Nascimento Dourado ◽  
Jerson Laks ◽  
Jesus Landeira-Fernandez ◽  
Robin G. Morris ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Alzheimer’S Disease ◽  
Alzheimer's Disease ◽  
Cognitive Function ◽  
Mood State ◽  
Depressive Mood ◽  
Medium Effect ◽  
Underlying Structure ◽  
Competing Models ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

AbstractObjectives:To investigate the nature of the relationship between cognitive function, mood state, and functionality in predicting awareness in a non-clinically depressed sample of participants with mild to moderate Alzheimer’s disease (AD) in Brazil.Methods:People with AD (PwAD) aged 60 years or older were recruited from an outpatient unit at the Center of AD of the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Measures of awareness of condition (Assessment Scale of the Psychosocial Impact of the Diagnosis of Dementia), cognitive function (Mini-Mental State Examination), mood state (Cornell Scale for Depression in Dementia), and functionality (Pfeffer Functional Activities Questionnaire) were applied to 264 people with mild to moderate AD and their caregivers. Hypotheses were tested statistically using SEM approach. Three competing models were compared.Results:The first model, in which the influence of mood state and cognitive function on awareness was mediated by functionality, showed a very good fit to the data and a medium effect size. The competing models, in which the mediating variables were mood state and cognitive function, respectively, only showed poor model fit.Conclusion:Our model supports the notion that the relationship between different factors and awareness in AD is mediated by functionality and not by depressive mood state or cognitive level. The proposed direct and indirect effects on awareness are discussed, as well as the missing direct influence of mood state on awareness. The understanding of awareness in dementia is crucial and our model gives one possible explanation of its underlying structure in AD.

scholarly journals How to improve eyewitness testimony research: theoretical and methodological concerns about experiments on the impact of emotions on memory performance

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kaja Głomb
Keyword(s):  
State Of The Art ◽  
Memory Performance ◽  
Eyewitness Testimony ◽  
The State ◽  
Rigorous Approach ◽  
Comprehensive Theory ◽  
Emotional Events ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

AbstractThe purpose of this paper is to present crucial shortcomings of research into eyewitness testimony. It presents the state-of-the-art of research on the relationship between emotions and memory performance. In addition, it addresses contradictions and concerns about previous studies. Despite the declarations of consensus on the role of emotions in memory coding and retrieving, there are as many studies suggesting that emotional events are better remembered than neutral ones, as there are reports that show the opposite. Therefore, by indicating the theoretical and methodological limitations of previous studies, this paper advocates a more rigorous approach to the investigation of emotions and their impact on the quality and quantity of testimony. It also provides a framework for inquiry that allows better comparisons between studies and results, and may help to build a more comprehensive theory of the effects of emotion on memory

scholarly journals Size-by-environment interactions: a neglected dimension of species’ responses to environmental variation

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew T. Tredennick ◽  
Brittany J. Teller ◽  
Peter B. Adler ◽  
Giles Hooker ◽  
Stephen P. Ellner
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Functional Form ◽  
Survival Rates ◽  
Vital Rate ◽  
Vital Rates ◽  
Size Dependent ◽  
Fluctuating Environments ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

AbstractIn both plant and animal systems, size can determine whether an individual survives and grows under different environmental conditions. However, it is less clear whether and when size-dependent responses to the environment affect population dynamics. Size-by-environment interactions create pathways for environmental fluctuations to influence population dynamics by allowing for negative covariation between sizes within vital rates (e.g., small and large individuals have negatively covarying survival rates) and/or size-dependent variability in a vital rate (e.g., survival of large individuals varies less than small individuals through time). Whether these phenomena affect population dynamics depends on how they are mediated by elasticities (they must affect the sizes and vital rates that matter) and their projected impacts will depend on model functional form (the impact of reduced variance depends on the relationship between the environment and vital rate). We demonstrate these ideas with an analysis of fifteen species from five semiarid plant communities. We find that size-by-environment interactions are common but do not impact long-term population dynamics. Size-by-environment interactions may yet be important for other species. Our approach can be applied to species in other ecosystems to determine if and how size-by-environment interactions allow them to cope with, or exploit, fluctuating environments.

8. An essential political science

2020 ◽  
pp. 119-124
Author(s):  
Christian Reus-Smit
Keyword(s):  
International Relations ◽  
Political Science ◽  
Cultural Difference ◽  
Special Role ◽  
Environmental Consequences ◽  
Global Organization ◽  
Local Contexts ◽  
And Control ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

This Very Short Introduction argues that when seeking to understand international relations we should focus on the global organization of political authority, and on the human and environmental consequences of such organization. It provides an illuminating framework for understanding the nature, effects, and control of war; the relationship between politics and economics; the significance of human rights; and the impact of cultural difference. ‘An essential political science’ also proposes that such a focus helps us better understand many of today’s most pressing concerns as well. International relations has a special role addressing the macro-conditions—the global arrangements of legitimate political power—that condition politics in more local contexts.

Rereading John Stuart Mill's On Liberty in the Digital Communications Age

2014 ◽  
pp. 19-34 ◽  
Author(s):  
Diogo Santos
Keyword(s):  
Political Science ◽  
Digital Communications ◽  
Communication Technologies ◽  
The State ◽  
The People ◽  
Democratic Systems ◽  
Use Of Social Media ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

On Liberty by John Stuart Mill is about democracy, the limitations to political power, and the actions of individuals that protect the ability of the people to pursue their dreams and aspirations, as well as the shaping of modern democratic systems. The objective of this chapter is to review a classic of political science in the light on the current processes and developments in the Digital Age and thus extract new light on the impact the new digital communication technologies have on the relationship between the state and the citizens around the world. The widespread use of social media and digital communications will have and is having deep and unavoidable impacts on the relationship between the state and citizens. However, such impacts raise both hopes of a better future for democracies and dictatorships as well as concerns of privacy, freedom of speech and thought, consistency of public policy, quality of governmental services, and even the legitimacy and lifetime of regimes. The theoretical tools of classical political science may, however, aid us in better understanding such processes and steering change for the best.

John Stuart Mill's On Liberty in the Digital Communications Age

2020 ◽  
pp. 26-47
Author(s):  
Diogo Santos ◽  
Mylla Maria Maria Sousa Sampaio
Keyword(s):  
Political Science ◽  
Digital Communications ◽  
Communication Technologies ◽  
Freedom Of Speech ◽  
The State ◽  
Democratic Systems ◽  
Use Of Social Media ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

On Liberty by J. S. Mill is on democracy, limitations to political power, as well as the shaping of modern democratic systems. This chapter aims to review a classic of political science in light of the current developments in the digital age and thus extract new light on the impact the new digital communication technologies have on the relationship between the state and the citizens around the world. The widespread use of social media and digital communications will have and is having deep and unavoidable impacts on the relationship between the state and citizens. However, such impacts raise both hopes of a better future for democracies and dictatorships as well as concerns of privacy, freedom of speech and thought, consistency of public policy, quality of governmental services, and even the legitimacy and lifetime of regimes. The theoretical tools of classical political science may, however, aid us in better understanding such processes and steering change for the best.

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