A note on a stochastic model to describe the milk yield of a dairy cow

1984 ◽  
Vol 38 (1) ◽  
pp. 133-136 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. A. Goodall ◽  
D. Sprevak

ABSTRACTBy studying the behaviour of the time series of the difference between the observed values of milk yield and the fitted lactation curve, a stochastic model for milk yield is derived. The model is used to improve the fit of the lactation curve, to forecast milk yield and to generate simulated values of milk yield.

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (2) ◽  
pp. 100-106 ◽  
Author(s):  
Farzane Shokri-Sangari ◽  
Hadi Atashi ◽  
Mohammad Dadpasand ◽  
Fateme Saghanejad

Background: Lactation persistency influences cow health and reproduction and has an impact on the feed costs of dairy farms. Objective: To estimate (co)variance components and genetic parameters of 100- and 305-d milk yield, and lactation persistency in Holstein cows in Iran. Methods: Records collected from January 2000 to December 2012 by the Animal Breeding Center of Iran (Karaj, Iran) were used. The following four measures of lactation persistency were used: P21: Ratio of milk yield in the second 100-d in milk (DIM) divided by that of the first 100-d. P31: Ratios of milk yield in the third100-d divided by that of the first 100-d. PW: The persistency measure derived from the incomplete gamma function. PJ: The difference between milk yield in day 60th and 280th of lactation. Results: The estimated heritability of lactation persistency for the three first parities (first, second, and third lactation) ranged from 0.01 to 0.06, 0.02 to 0.10, and 0.01 to 0.12, respectively. Genetic correlations among lactation persistency measures for the three first parities ranged from 0.77 to 0.98, 0.65 to 0.98, and 0.58 to 0.98, respectively; while corresponding values for genetic correlations among lactation persistency with 305-d milk production ranged from 0.18 to 0.63, 0.32 to 0.75, and 0.41 to 0.71, respectively. The estimated repeatability for lactation persistency measures ranged from 0.06 to 0.20. Conclusion: The moderate positive genetic correlation between lactation persistency and 305-d milk yield indicates that selection for increasing milk yield can slightly improve lactation persistency.Key words: dairy cattle, heritability, lactation curve, milk yield, persistency, repeatability. ResumenAntecedentes: La persistencia de la lactancia tiene una gran influencia en la salud, la reproducción y los costos de alimentación de las granjas lecheras. Objetivo: Estimar los componentes de (co)varianza y los parámetros genéticos de la producción de leche a 100 y 305 d, asi como la persistencia de la lactancia en vacas Holstein en Irán. Métodos: Se utilizaron registros recopilados entre enero de 2000 y diciembre de 2012 por el Centro de cría de animales de Irán (Karaj, Irán). Se utilizaron las siguientes cuatro medidas de persistencia de la lactancia: P21: Proporción de producción de leche en los segundos 100-d en leche (DIM) dividida por la de los primeros 100-d. P31: Proporcion de producción de leche en los terceros 100-d dividido por el de los primeros 100-d. PW: medida de persistencia derivada de la función gamma incompleta. PJ: diferencia entre el rendimiento de leche en el 60 y el 280 día de lactancia. Resultados: La heredabilidad estimada de la persistencia de la lactancia para los tres primeros partos (primera, segunda y tercera lactancia) varió de 0,01 a 0,06; 0,02 a 0,10; y 0,01 a 0,12, respectivamente. Las correlaciones genéticas entre las medidas de persistencia de lactancia para los tres primeros partos variaron de 0,77 a 0,98; 0,65 a 0,98; y 0,58 a 0,98, respectivamente; mientras que los valores correspondientes para las correlaciones genéticas entre la persistencia de la lactancia con la producción de leche a 305 d variaron de 0,18 a 0,63; 0,32 a 0,75; y 0,41 a 0,71, respectivamente. La repetibilidad estimada para las medidas de persistencia de la lactancia varió de 0,06 a 0,20. Conclusión: La correlación genética positiva moderada entre la persistencia de la lactancia y la producción de leche a 305-d indica que la selección para aumentar la producción de leche puede mejorar ligeramente la persistencia de la lactancia.Palabras clave: curva de lactancia, ganado lechero, heredabilidad, persistencia, producción de leche, repetibilidad. ResumoAntecedentes: A persistência da lactação tem grande influência nos custos de saúde, reprodução e alimentação em fazendas leiteiras. Objetivo: Estimar os componentes da variância (co)variância e os parâmetros genéticos da produção de leite de 100 e 305 d e a persistência da lactação em vacas Holandesas no Irã. Métodos: Os dados utilizados foram registros coletados de janeiro de 2000 a dezembro de 2012 pelo Centro de Criação de Animais do Irã (Karaj, Irã). As seguintes quatro medidas de persistência de lactação foram utilizadas: P21: Razão da produção de leite no segundo 100-d em leite (DIM) dividido pelo primeiro 100-d. P31: Razões da produção de leite na terceira 100d dividida pela da primeira 100-d. PW: A medida de persistência derivada da função gama incompleta. PJ: A diferença entre a produção de leite no 60º e 280º dia de lactação. Resultados: A hereditariedade estimada da persistência da lactação para as três primeiras paridades (primeira, segunda e terceira lactação) variou de 0,01 a 0,06; 0,02 a 0,10; e 0,01 a 0,12, respectivamente. As correlações genéticas entre as medidas de persistência da lactação para as três primeiras paridades variaram de 0,77 a 0,98; 0,65 a 0,98; e 0,58 a 0,98, respectivamente; enquanto os valores correspondentes para correlações genéticas entre a persistência da lactação com produção de leite de 305d variaram de 0,18 a 0,63; 0,32 a 0,75; e 0,41 a 0,71, respectivamente. A repetibilidade estimada para medidas de persistência de lactação variou de 0,06 a 0,20. Conclusão: A correlação genética positiva moderada entre a persistência da lactação e a produção de leite de 305d indicou que a seleção para aumentar a produção de leite melhoraria ligeiramente a persistência da lactação.Palavras-chave: curva de lactação, gado de leite, hereditariedade, persistência, produção de leite, repetibilidade.


1985 ◽  
Vol 40 (2) ◽  
pp. 189-193 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. A. Goodall ◽  
D. Sprevak

ABSTRACTA recursive procedure for the estimation of the lactation curve of a dairy cow, which allows the inclusion of prior information on the curve and which takes account of the correlation between successive observations, is described. The method is based on the Kalman filter. It was found to give accurate estimates of the total milk yield at early stages of lactation.


1982 ◽  
Vol 34 (3) ◽  
pp. 243-247 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. S. Dhanoa ◽  
Y. L. P. Le Du

ABSTRACTA new model is proposed to describe the lactation curve of a dairy cow. It uses the fact that milk yield at a given stage of lactation is largely determined by the yield in the preceding stage. The model is written as: yt = λ(m0 – m1t) + (1 – λ)yt–1. t ≥ 1, 0 ≤ λ ≤ 1, where y1, and yt–1 are the current and preceding milk yields in kg/week, and the constant × estimates the fraction (1–λ) by which milk yield adjusts to the level at the next stage. The fraction (1–λ) by which the milk yield persists at the preceding level is used to define a measure of persistency, P = (1–λ)m0/m1 weeks, where m1 is the rate of decline in kg/week and m0 is a constant.


2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 101-110
Author(s):  
Adrian Firdaus ◽  
M. Dwi Yoga Sutanto ◽  
Rajin Sihombing ◽  
M. Weldy Hermawan

Abstract Every port in Indonesia must have a Port Master Plan that contains an integrated port development plan. This study discusses one important aspect in the preparation of the Port Master Plan, namely the projected movement of goods and passengers, which can be used as a reference in determining the need for facilities at each stage of port development. The case study was conducted at a port located in a district in Maluku Province and aims to evaluate the analysis of projected demand for goods and passengers occurring at the port. The projection method used is time series and econometric projection. The projection results are then compared with the existing data in 2018. The results of this study show that the econometric projection gives adequate results in predicting loading and unloading activities as well as the number of passenger arrival and departure in 2018. This is indicated by the difference in the percentage of projection results towards the existing data, which is smaller than 10%. Whereas for loading and unloading activities, time series projections with logarithmic trends give better results than econometric projections. Keywords: port, port master plan, port development, unloading activities  Abstrak Setiap pelabuhan di Indonesia harus memiliki sebuah Rencana Induk Pelabuhan yang memuat rencana pengem-bangan pelabuhan secara terpadu. Studi ini membahas salah satu aspek penting dalam penyusunan Rencana Induk Pelabuhan, yaitu proyeksi pergerakan barang dan penumpang, yang dapat dipakai sebagai acuan dalam penentuan kebutuhan fasilitas di setiap tahap pengembangan pelabuhan. Studi kasus dilakukan pada sebuah pelabuhan yang terletak di sebuah kabupaten di Provinsi Maluku dan bertujuan untuk melakukan evaluasi ter-hadap analisis proyeksi demand barang dan penumpang yang terjadi di pelabuhan tersebut. Metode proyeksi yang dipakai adalah proyeksi deret waktu dan ekonometrik. Hasil proyeksi selanjutnya dibandingkan dengan data eksisting tahun 2018. Hasil studi ini menunjukkan bahwa proyeksi ekonometrik memberikan hasil yang cukup baik dalam memprediksi aktivitas bongkar barang serta jumlah penumpang naik dan turun di tahun 2018. Hal ini diindikasikan dengan selisih persentase hasil proyeksi terhadap data eksisting yang lebih kecil dari 10%. Sedangkan untuk aktivitas muat barang, proyeksi deret waktu dengan tren logaritmik memberikan hasil yang lebih baik daripada proyeksi ekonometrik. Kata-kata kunci: pelabuhan, rencana induk pelabuhan, pengembangan pelauhan, aktivitas bongkar barang


SLEEP ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 44 (Supplement_2) ◽  
pp. A111-A112
Author(s):  
Austin Vandegriffe ◽  
V A Samaranayake ◽  
Matthew Thimgan

Abstract Introduction Technological innovations have broadened the type and amount of activity data that can be captured in the home and under normal living conditions. Yet, converting naturalistic activity patterns into sleep and wakefulness states has remained a challenge. Despite the successes of current algorithms, they do not fill all actigraphy needs. We have developed a novel statistical approach to determine sleep and wakefulness times, called the Wasserstein Algorithm for Classifying Sleep and Wakefulness (WACSAW), and validated the algorithm in a small cohort of healthy participants. Methods WACSAW functional routines: 1) Conversion of the triaxial movement data into a univariate time series; 2) Construction of a Wasserstein weighted sum (WSS) time series by measuring the Wasserstein distance between equidistant distributions of movement data before and after the time-point of interest; 3) Segmenting the time series by identifying changepoints based on the behavior of the WSS series; 4) Merging segments deemed similar by the Levene test; 5) Comparing segments by optimal transport methodology to determine the difference from a flat, invariant distribution at zero. The resulting histogram can be used to determine sleep and wakefulness parameters around a threshold determined for each individual based on histogram properties. To validate the algorithm, participants wore the GENEActiv and a commercial grade actigraphy watch for 48 hours. The accuracy of WACSAW was compared to a detailed activity log and benchmarked against the results of the output from commercial wrist actigraph. Results WACSAW performed with an average accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity of >95% compared to detailed activity logs in 10 healthy-sleeping individuals of mixed sexes and ages. We then compared WACSAW’s performance against a common wrist-worn, commercial sleep monitor. WACSAW outperformed the commercial grade system in each participant compared to activity logs and the variability between subjects was cut substantially. Conclusion The performance of WACSAW demonstrates good results in a small test cohort. In addition, WACSAW is 1) open-source, 2) individually adaptive, 3) indicates individual reliability, 4) based on the activity data stream, and 5) requires little human intervention. WACSAW is worthy of validating against polysomnography and in patients with sleep disorders to determine its overall effectiveness. Support (if any):


2014 ◽  
Vol 574 ◽  
pp. 718-722
Author(s):  
Ning Ji ◽  
Jun Tan ◽  
An Shan Pei ◽  
Jia Fei Dai ◽  
Jun Wang

This paper presents the Multiscale Mutual Mode Entropy algorithm to quantify the coupling degree between two alpha rhythm EEG time series which are simultaneously acquired. The results show that in the process of scale change, the young and middle-aged differ from each other in terms of the coupling degree of alpha rhythm EEG and the difference grow clear gradually. So the Multiscale Mutual Mode Entropy can be used to analyze the coupling information of time series under different physiological status, and it also has good noise resistance. Besides, as an indicator of measuring brain function, in the future it can also come to the aid of clinical evaluation of brain function.


2002 ◽  
Vol 46 (1) ◽  
pp. 29-41 ◽  
Author(s):  
C Fernández ◽  
A Sánchez ◽  
C Garcés
Keyword(s):  

1998 ◽  
Vol 30 (04) ◽  
pp. 1027-1057 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philippe Picard

Modelling malaria with consistency necessitates the introduction of at least two families of interconnected processes. Even in a Markovian context the simplest fully stochastic model is intractable and is usually transformed into a hybrid model, by supposing that these two families are stochastically independent and linked only through two deterministic connections. A model closer to the fully stochastic model is presented here, where one of the two families is subordinated to the other and just a unique deterministic connection is required. For this model a threshold theorem can be proved but the threshold level is not the one obtained in a hybrid model. The difference disappears only when the human population size approaches infinity.


1972 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 263-281 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. S. Monteiro

SUMMARYA closed-loop system is proposed for the control of voluntary food intake in lactating cows, and an expression is deduced relating the response of food intake to changes in milk yield and body-weight gain.A closed-loop system necessarily involves a delay in the response to changes in production. The rate of increase of food intake is there- fore slower than the rate of increase in milk yield. The consequent deficit in energy during the rising part of the lactation curve is met by the mobilization of body reserves, which are partly accounted for by losses in body weight. During the declining part of the lactation the delay effect leads to an excess of energy intake and to the replacement of body reserves and, consequently, of body weight.The expression deduced from the model was fitted to four different types of lactation curve corresponding to long and short lactations of Friesians and Jerseys fed ad libitum on a complete diet. The expected food intake based on the control model was contrasted with a linear regression model. The former gave a better account of the variation in food intake in all four types of lactation.The total change in body weight during lactation was partitioned between changes in weight due to the mobilization and replacement of reserves and gain directly attributable to food intake. There was, in general, good agreement between the observed losses in weight occurring at the beginning of lactation and those predicted from the mobilization of reserves for milk production.The physiological implications of the model and the values estimated for the parameters are discussed.


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