scholarly journals The Political Conditioning of Subjective Economic Evaluations: The Role of Party Discourse

2014 ◽  
Vol 46 (4) ◽  
pp. 799-823 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sergi Pardos-Prado ◽  
Iñaki Sagarzazu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Voting ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Economic Evaluations ◽  
Economic Issues ◽  
Subjective Evaluations ◽  
National Economic ◽  
True State ◽  
State Of The Economy ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators

Classic and revisionist perspectives on economic voting have thoroughly analyzed the role of macroeconomic indicators and individual partisanship as determinants of subjective evaluations of the national economy. Surprisingly, however, top-down analysis of parties’ capacity to cue and persuade voters about national economic conditions is absent in the debate. This study uses a novel dataset containing monthly economic salience in party parliamentary speeches, macroeconomic indicators and individual survey data covering the four last electoral cycles in Spain (1996–2011). The results show that the salience of economic issues in the challenger’s discourse substantially increases negative evaluations of performance when this challenger is the owner of the economic issue. While a challenger’s conditioning of public economic evaluations is independent of the state of the economy (and can affect citizens with different ideological orientations), incumbent parties are more constrained by the true state of the economy in their ability to persuade the electorate on this issue.

Economic Voting during the AKP Era in Turkey

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Erdem Aytaç
Keyword(s):  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Economic Voting ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Economic Evaluations ◽  
Electoral Accountability ◽  
Positive Economic ◽  
Subjective Evaluations ◽  
State Of The Economy ◽  
Nationally Representative ◽  
Socio Demographic Factors

Economic voting, that is voters’ rewarding or punishing the incumbent according to the state of the economy, is one of the main approaches to voting behavior. This chapter explores economic voting during the Justice and Development Party (AKP) era in Turkey. Drawing on data from five nationally representative surveys fielded between 2007 and 2019, it finds that voters’ evaluations of the economy are a significant predictor of voting for the AKP. Even after accounting for several socio-demographic factors, ideological self-positioning, and partisanship, individuals with more positive economic evaluations are more likely to vote for the AKP. These findings hint at the presence of electoral accountability through economic voting in the Turkish context. At the same time, however, there is a significant and growing divergence in economic evaluations across partisanship—evaluations of AKP partisans are consistently more positive than those of other voters, and the magnitude of this gap in evaluations has been increasing since 2007. Given this increasing influence of partisanship on perceptions of the economy, voters’ subjective economic evaluations may not correspond to objective economic conditions. As the gap between subjective evaluations and objective conditions widens, we can expect weakened electoral accountability for actual economic outcomes.

scholarly journals From the Brady Bunch to Gilmore Girls: The Effect of Household Size on Economic Voting

2021 ◽  
pp. 1532673X2110056
Author(s):  
Manuel E. Lago ◽  
Ignacio Lago
Keyword(s):  
State Level ◽  
Economic Voting ◽  
Household Size ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Economic Evaluations ◽  
Financial Situation ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
National Economic ◽  
Household Members ◽  
The Impact

This article examines whether household size affects economic voting. We argue when individuals are asked about national economic conditions and their personal financial situation that moderate or mid-range responses are more likely in multi-person households than in one-person households. The aggregation of personal economic evaluations within households reduces the variation in economic opinions across household members. As a result, it is harder for an individual to say that the national economic conditions and her personal financial situation are good or bad as the number of household members increases. Using individual-level data from the American National Election Studies from 1966 to 2016, the authors find that both evaluations of the national economy and personal economic conditions are endogenous to household size. The aggregate, state-level evidence from five presidential elections in the U.S. shows that the impact of the economy on the incumbent support increases the larger the number of one-person households.

A President Out of Work: A Note on the Political Economy of Presidential Approval in the Bush Years

1994 ◽  
Vol 24 (4) ◽  
pp. 535-548 ◽  
Author(s):  
Harold D. Clarke ◽  
Jonathan Rapkin ◽  
Marianne C. Stewart
Keyword(s):  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Economic Evaluations ◽  
Presidential Approval ◽  
George Bush ◽  
Approval Ratings ◽  
Subjective Evaluations ◽  
Long Term Performance ◽  
Term Performance ◽  
Job Approval

On 3 November 1992 the American electorate dismissed President George Bush after a campaign in which his opponents repeatedly criticized his management – or mismanagement – of the nation's sluggish economy. Although the salience of economic issues in the 1992 election is consistent with the emphasis placed on economic conditions in most studies of presidents' job approval ratings, the results of these studies have recently been challenged. Based on analyses of quarterly data for the 1953–88 period, MacKuen, Erikson and Stimson conclude that voters' subjective evaluations of the long-term performance of the national economy are crucial. Controlling for such expectations, retrospective judgements about economic performance and objective economic conditions are not important determinants of approval of the president. These conclusions are at odds both with the traditional ‘reward-punishment’ theory that emphasizes the importance of retrospective economic evaluations for approval of the president and with the revisionist ‘issue-priority’ theory which contends that inflation and unemployment rates have differential effects on support for Republican and Democratic presidents.

scholarly journals When Do Citizens Respond Politically to the Local Economy? Evidence from Registry Data on Local Housing Markets

2019 ◽  
Vol 113 (2) ◽  
pp. 499-516 ◽  
Author(s):  
MARTIN VINÆS LARSEN ◽  
FREDERIK HJORTH ◽  
PETER THISTED DINESEN ◽  
KIM MANNEMAR SØNDERSKOV
Keyword(s):  
Housing Prices ◽  
Housing Markets ◽  
Economic Voting ◽  
Local Economy ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Panel Survey ◽  
Detailed Data ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Process Context

Recent studies of economic voting have focused on the role of the local economy, but with inconclusive results. We argue that while local economic conditions affect incumbent support on average, the importance of the local economy varies by citizens’ interactions with it. More recent and frequent encounters with aspects of the local economy make those aspects more salient and, in turn, feature more prominently in evaluations of the incumbent government. We label this process “context priming.” We provide evidence for these propositions by studying local housing markets. Linking granularly detailed data on housing prices from Danish public registries to both precinct-level election returns and an individual-level panel survey, we find that when individuals interact with the housing market, their support for the incumbent government is more responsive to changes in local housing prices. The study thus provides a framework for understanding when citizens respond politically to the local economy.

scholarly journals LOCAL ECONOMIC VOTING AND RESIDENCE-BASED REGIONALISM IN SOUTH KOREA: EVIDENCE FROM THE 2007 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 349-369 ◽  
Author(s):  
Woo Chang Kang
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Positive Association ◽  
Economic Voting ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Economic Changes ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Regional Parties ◽  
National Economic ◽  
The Individual

AbstractRegional bloc voting in South Korea has been ascribed to voters’ psychological attachments to birthplace. This article seeks to expand the existing discussion of regionalism by showing that economic conditions in voters’ places of residence affect vote choices at the individual level and produce clustering of votes at the aggregate level in South Korea. While the idea of residence-based regionalism has previously been suggested, empirical scrutiny of the idea has been limited. Exploiting a Bayesian multilevel strategy, this article provides evidence that short-term economic changes at the province level affected voters’ choices in the 2007 presidential election in South Korea, independent of the long-term political affiliation between regional parties and their constituents. The positive association between local economic conditions and vote choices remains significant, controlling for perceptions of national economic conditions and other individual level covariates such as age and political attitudes.

scholarly journals Representasi Kehidupan Sosial Ekonomi Pelaku Usaha Mikro Kecil Menengah (UMKM) Dikawasan Objek Wisata Percandian Muaro Jambi-Provinsi Jambi

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Adi Putra ◽  
Hasan Basri
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Small And Medium Enterprises ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Development Policies ◽  
National Economic ◽  
Dependent Variables ◽  
Object Area ◽  
Equal Income ◽  
Medium Enterprises

UMKM are very important to note because UMKM are a driver of national economic development. The important role of UMKM is the most productive sector at the time of the monetary crisis in Indonesia. The development of UMKM is also the most important element for economic development policies to create jobs, equal income, economic growth, alleviate poverty and increase income for the regional economy. This study aims to determine how the socio-economic conditions of UMKM actors in the Tourism Object area of the Muaro Jambi Temple Complex, with descriptive statistical analysis methods, frequency analysis, factor analysis and influence tests to determine the effect of independent variables and dependent variables. the results of this study find out how the socio-economic conditions of Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises in the area of Tourism Object Muaro Jamb ensemble complex, and obtained models and strategies for business development from social capital owned by the community.

scholarly journals Digging into the Pocketbook: Evidence on Economic Voting from Income Registry Data Matched to a Voter Survey

2017 ◽  
Vol 111 (4) ◽  
pp. 771-785 ◽  
Author(s):  
ANDREW J. HEALY ◽  
MIKAEL PERSSON ◽  
ERIK SNOWBERG
Keyword(s):  
Strong Evidence ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
Economic Voting ◽  
Vote Choice ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Economic Evaluations ◽  
Economic Data ◽  
Partisan Bias ◽  
Economic Information ◽  
Financial Conditions

To paint a fuller picture of economic voters, we combine personal income records with a representative election survey. We examine three central topics in the economic voting literature: pocketbook versus sociotropic voting, the effects of partisanship on economic evaluations, and voter myopia. First, we show that voters who appear in survey data to be voting based on the national economy are, in fact, voting equally on the basis of their personal financial conditions. Second, there is strong evidence of both partisan bias and economic information in economic evaluations, but personal economic data is required to separate the two. Third, although in experiments and aggregate historical data recent economic conditions appear to drive vote choice, we find no evidence of myopia when we examine actual personal economic data.

scholarly journals An Analytical Study On Socio-Economic Conditions Of Squatter Settlements In Karachi

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Aamir Waheed Khawaja ◽  
Nasreen Aslam Shah
Keyword(s):  
Urban Areas ◽  
Analytical Study ◽  
Rural Families ◽  
Provincial Government ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Squatter Settlements ◽  
Economic Issues ◽  
Set Up ◽  
The City

This research study was conducted on socio-economic conditions of families living in squatter’s settlement of Karachi. The urban population is booming with unprecedented growth due to heavy influx or migration of rural population to the cities especially in Karachi. The rural families are migrating to the city in a way to have better employment; improved lifestyles in urban societies. Migrators usually accommodated in squatters’ settlements of Karachi because of high residing cost in urban areas. The squatters’ settlements are located at outskirt of the city on government owned lands. However the provincial government has set up Sindh Katchi Abadi Authority (SKAA) department for upgrading or regularizing Katchi Abadis which are working under specific rules and regulations. In this study the role of SKAA also highlighted to analyze the working preferences of organization for the rehabilitation or betterment of squatter settlements. The research topic is chosen in order to investigate about the socio-economic issues of families living in squatters settlements. The data is collected from 200 respondents of squatters from squatters’ settlements which are situated in six different districts of Karachi. Data is collected by the self-prepared questionnaire which was prepared in a way to investigate socio-economic issues and problems of squatters’ families living in the settlements. This research found that whole sample of squatters is of migrators. These settlements are considered illegal and have no provision of basic necessities including drinking safe water; inadequate sanitation system; and low standard of housings.

scholarly journals An Analytical Study On Socio-Economic Conditions Of Squatter Settlements In Karachi

2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-23
Author(s):  
Aamir Waheed Khawaja ◽  
Nasreen Aslam Shah
Keyword(s):  
Urban Areas ◽  
Analytical Study ◽  
Rural Families ◽  
Provincial Government ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Squatter Settlements ◽  
Economic Issues ◽  
Set Up ◽  
The City

This research study was conducted on socio-economic conditions of families living in squatter’s settlement of Karachi. The urban population is booming with unprecedented growth due to heavy influx or migration of rural population to the cities especially in Karachi. The rural families are migrating to the city in a way to have better employment; improved lifestyles in urban societies. Migrators usually accommodated in squatters’ settlements of Karachi because of high residing cost in urban areas. The squatters’ settlements are located at outskirt of the city on government owned lands. However the provincial government has set up Sindh Katchi Abadi Authority (SKAA) department for upgrading or regularizing Katchi Abadis which are working under specific rules and regulations. In this study the role of SKAA also highlighted to analyze the working preferences of organization for the rehabilitation or betterment of squatter settlements. The research topic is chosen in order to investigate about the socio-economic issues of families living in squatters settlements. The data is collected from 200 respondents of squatters from squatters’ settlements which are situated in six different districts of Karachi. Data is collected by the self-prepared questionnaire which was prepared in a way to investigate socio-economic issues and problems of squatters’ families living in the settlements. This research found that whole sample of squatters is of migrators. These settlements are considered illegal and have no provision of basic necessities including drinking safe water; inadequate sanitation system; and low standard of housings.

Economic Perceptions and Electoral Choices: A Design-Based Approach

2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 795-813 ◽  
Author(s):  
Giancarlo Visconti
Keyword(s):  
Economic Voting ◽  
Structural Equations ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Ample Evidence ◽  
Current State ◽  
Political Preferences ◽  
Traditional Research ◽  
Research Designs ◽  
State Of The Economy ◽  
Economic Perceptions

Do economic perceptions affect voters’ electoral choices? There is ample evidence showing a correlation between how people perceive the current state of the economy and electoral decisions. However, there are reasons to believe that political preferences can also determine how voters evaluate economic conditions, which will reverse the causality arrow. The strategies previously implemented to address this problem have been based on the use of structural equations and instrumental variables, but they require very strong parametric or identification assumptions. In this paper, I follow a design-based approach by emphasizing the study design rather than statistical modeling. In contrast to previous studies that used the same panel data in Brazil, I find evidence that supports egotropic, rather than sociotropic, voting. This finding shows that traditional research designs may be overstating the magnitude of sociotropic economic voting.

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