scholarly journals From the Brady Bunch to Gilmore Girls: The Effect of Household Size on Economic Voting

2021 ◽  
pp. 1532673X2110056
Author(s):  
Manuel E. Lago ◽  
Ignacio Lago
Keyword(s):  
State Level ◽  
Economic Voting ◽  
Household Size ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Economic Evaluations ◽  
Financial Situation ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
National Economic ◽  
Household Members ◽  
The Impact

This article examines whether household size affects economic voting. We argue when individuals are asked about national economic conditions and their personal financial situation that moderate or mid-range responses are more likely in multi-person households than in one-person households. The aggregation of personal economic evaluations within households reduces the variation in economic opinions across household members. As a result, it is harder for an individual to say that the national economic conditions and her personal financial situation are good or bad as the number of household members increases. Using individual-level data from the American National Election Studies from 1966 to 2016, the authors find that both evaluations of the national economy and personal economic conditions are endogenous to household size. The aggregate, state-level evidence from five presidential elections in the U.S. shows that the impact of the economy on the incumbent support increases the larger the number of one-person households.

scholarly journals LOCAL ECONOMIC VOTING AND RESIDENCE-BASED REGIONALISM IN SOUTH KOREA: EVIDENCE FROM THE 2007 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 349-369 ◽  
Author(s):  
Woo Chang Kang
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Positive Association ◽  
Economic Voting ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Economic Changes ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Regional Parties ◽  
National Economic ◽  
The Individual

AbstractRegional bloc voting in South Korea has been ascribed to voters’ psychological attachments to birthplace. This article seeks to expand the existing discussion of regionalism by showing that economic conditions in voters’ places of residence affect vote choices at the individual level and produce clustering of votes at the aggregate level in South Korea. While the idea of residence-based regionalism has previously been suggested, empirical scrutiny of the idea has been limited. Exploiting a Bayesian multilevel strategy, this article provides evidence that short-term economic changes at the province level affected voters’ choices in the 2007 presidential election in South Korea, independent of the long-term political affiliation between regional parties and their constituents. The positive association between local economic conditions and vote choices remains significant, controlling for perceptions of national economic conditions and other individual level covariates such as age and political attitudes.

scholarly journals The Political Conditioning of Subjective Economic Evaluations: The Role of Party Discourse

2014 ◽  
Vol 46 (4) ◽  
pp. 799-823 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sergi Pardos-Prado ◽  
Iñaki Sagarzazu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Voting ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Economic Evaluations ◽  
Economic Issues ◽  
Subjective Evaluations ◽  
National Economic ◽  
True State ◽  
State Of The Economy ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators

Classic and revisionist perspectives on economic voting have thoroughly analyzed the role of macroeconomic indicators and individual partisanship as determinants of subjective evaluations of the national economy. Surprisingly, however, top-down analysis of parties’ capacity to cue and persuade voters about national economic conditions is absent in the debate. This study uses a novel dataset containing monthly economic salience in party parliamentary speeches, macroeconomic indicators and individual survey data covering the four last electoral cycles in Spain (1996–2011). The results show that the salience of economic issues in the challenger’s discourse substantially increases negative evaluations of performance when this challenger is the owner of the economic issue. While a challenger’s conditioning of public economic evaluations is independent of the state of the economy (and can affect citizens with different ideological orientations), incumbent parties are more constrained by the true state of the economy in their ability to persuade the electorate on this issue.

Special elections in alternative vote electoral systems: Exploring turnout and the vote in Irish by-elections 1923–2019

2021 ◽  
pp. 136914812110457
Author(s):  
Stephen Quinlan
Keyword(s):  
Electoral Systems ◽  
Electoral System ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Government Performance ◽  
Multifaceted Approach ◽  
Decisive Effect ◽  
Members Of Parliament ◽  
Alternative Vote ◽  
National Economic ◽  
The Impact

Most literature on special elections has focused on first-past-the-post contests and on the performance of governments. Turnout, candidates, and how the electoral system impacts the result have received less attention. This contribution fills these voids by exploring special elections in Ireland, elections conducted under the alternative vote system. Taking a multifaceted approach, it investigates the correlates of turnout, the impact of candidates and the decisive effect of lower preferences, while also testing multiple explanations of government performance. I find Irish special elections live up to the by-election truisms of lower turnout and government loss. Government performance is associated with national economic conditions. By-election victory is more likely among candidates with familial lineage and former members of parliament. Where they come into play, one in five candidates owe their victory to lower preferences.

Incumbent Tenure Crowds Out Economic Voting

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-20
Author(s):  
Martin Vinæs Larsen
Keyword(s):  
Economic Voting ◽  
Local Economy ◽  
Government Support ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Growing Stock ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Economic Vote ◽  
The Government

AbstractDoes the importance of the economy change during a government's time in office? Governments arguably become more responsible for current economic conditions as their tenure progresses. This might lead voters to hold experienced governments more accountable for economic conditions. However, voters also accumulate information about governments' competence over time. If voters are Bayesian learners, then this growing stock of information should crowd out the importance of current economic conditions. This article explores these divergent predictions about the relationship between tenure and the economic vote using three datasets. First, using country-level data from a diverse set of elections, the study finds that support for more experienced governments is less dependent on economic growth. Secondly, using individual-level data from sixty election surveys covering ten countries, the article shows that voters' perceptions of the economy have a greater impact on government support when the government is inexperienced. Finally, the article examines a municipal reform in Denmark that assigned some voters to new local incumbents and finds that these voters responded more strongly to the local economy. In conclusion, all three studies point in the same direction: economic voting decreases with time in office.

scholarly journals When Do Citizens Respond Politically to the Local Economy? Evidence from Registry Data on Local Housing Markets

2019 ◽  
Vol 113 (2) ◽  
pp. 499-516 ◽  
Author(s):  
MARTIN VINÆS LARSEN ◽  
FREDERIK HJORTH ◽  
PETER THISTED DINESEN ◽  
KIM MANNEMAR SØNDERSKOV
Keyword(s):  
Housing Prices ◽  
Housing Markets ◽  
Economic Voting ◽  
Local Economy ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Panel Survey ◽  
Detailed Data ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Process Context

Recent studies of economic voting have focused on the role of the local economy, but with inconclusive results. We argue that while local economic conditions affect incumbent support on average, the importance of the local economy varies by citizens’ interactions with it. More recent and frequent encounters with aspects of the local economy make those aspects more salient and, in turn, feature more prominently in evaluations of the incumbent government. We label this process “context priming.” We provide evidence for these propositions by studying local housing markets. Linking granularly detailed data on housing prices from Danish public registries to both precinct-level election returns and an individual-level panel survey, we find that when individuals interact with the housing market, their support for the incumbent government is more responsive to changes in local housing prices. The study thus provides a framework for understanding when citizens respond politically to the local economy.

Economic Voting during the AKP Era in Turkey

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Erdem Aytaç
Keyword(s):  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Economic Voting ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Economic Evaluations ◽  
Electoral Accountability ◽  
Positive Economic ◽  
Subjective Evaluations ◽  
State Of The Economy ◽  
Nationally Representative ◽  
Socio Demographic Factors

Economic voting, that is voters’ rewarding or punishing the incumbent according to the state of the economy, is one of the main approaches to voting behavior. This chapter explores economic voting during the Justice and Development Party (AKP) era in Turkey. Drawing on data from five nationally representative surveys fielded between 2007 and 2019, it finds that voters’ evaluations of the economy are a significant predictor of voting for the AKP. Even after accounting for several socio-demographic factors, ideological self-positioning, and partisanship, individuals with more positive economic evaluations are more likely to vote for the AKP. These findings hint at the presence of electoral accountability through economic voting in the Turkish context. At the same time, however, there is a significant and growing divergence in economic evaluations across partisanship—evaluations of AKP partisans are consistently more positive than those of other voters, and the magnitude of this gap in evaluations has been increasing since 2007. Given this increasing influence of partisanship on perceptions of the economy, voters’ subjective economic evaluations may not correspond to objective economic conditions. As the gap between subjective evaluations and objective conditions widens, we can expect weakened electoral accountability for actual economic outcomes.

Optimism in Times of Crisis

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roy Germano
Keyword(s):  
Latin American ◽  
Middle Eastern ◽  
Economic Security ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
North African ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Developing Regions ◽  
National Economic ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
The Impact

Using a variety of survey datasets, this chapter explores the impact of remittances in fifty Latin American, Caribbean, Middle Eastern, North African, and sub-Saharan African countries. The first part of this chapter provides an overview of trends in the flow of migrants and remittances throughout these developing regions. The remainder of the chapter uses survey data to analyze the effects of remittances on economic grievances during the global food and financial crises that struck many economies between 2008 and 2011. The results indicate that remittances are strongly associated with feelings of economic security and optimism. Remittance recipients are less likely to describe their personal economic circumstances or national economic conditions negatively. They are furthermore less likely to predict that their personal economic circumstances or the national economic conditions will deteriorate in the future.

scholarly journals Digging into the Pocketbook: Evidence on Economic Voting from Income Registry Data Matched to a Voter Survey

2017 ◽  
Vol 111 (4) ◽  
pp. 771-785 ◽  
Author(s):  
ANDREW J. HEALY ◽  
MIKAEL PERSSON ◽  
ERIK SNOWBERG
Keyword(s):  
Strong Evidence ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
Economic Voting ◽  
Vote Choice ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Economic Evaluations ◽  
Economic Data ◽  
Partisan Bias ◽  
Economic Information ◽  
Financial Conditions

To paint a fuller picture of economic voters, we combine personal income records with a representative election survey. We examine three central topics in the economic voting literature: pocketbook versus sociotropic voting, the effects of partisanship on economic evaluations, and voter myopia. First, we show that voters who appear in survey data to be voting based on the national economy are, in fact, voting equally on the basis of their personal financial conditions. Second, there is strong evidence of both partisan bias and economic information in economic evaluations, but personal economic data is required to separate the two. Third, although in experiments and aggregate historical data recent economic conditions appear to drive vote choice, we find no evidence of myopia when we examine actual personal economic data.

Le vote économique en contexte de crise financière : l'élection provinciale de 2008 au Québec

2011 ◽  
Vol 44 (3) ◽  
pp. 529-551 ◽  
Author(s):  
Éric Bélanger ◽  
François Gélineau
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Survey Data ◽  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Economic Voting ◽  
Vote Choice ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Enquête D’Opinion

Résumé.En déclenchant une élection provinciale anticipée à l'automne 2008 en pleine crise financière, le premier ministre du Québec, Jean Charest, fit le pari que la population réélirait son gouvernement en raison de sa compétence à gérer la «tempête économique» qui s'annonçait. Cet article cherche à déterminer le poids de la variable économique dans les choix électoraux lors de ce scrutin en exploitant les données d'une enquête d'opinion menée en décembre 2008. Ces données permettent notamment de vérifier à quel point le «vote économique» lors de cette élection en fut un de nature traditionnelle, c'est-à-dire s'appuyant sur les évaluations rétrospectives de l'économie de la part des votants, ou plutôt un de nature prospective, reposant sur les perceptions de la compétence des partis à gérer la crise économique annoncée. Nous analysons également l'effet particulier exercé sur le vote par l'enjeu des pertes de la Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec.Abstract.By calling an early election in the fall of 2008 in the midst of a financial crisis, Quebec Premier Jean Charest hoped that the population would re-elect his government on the basis of its competence at dealing with the upcoming “economic storm.” This article attempts to determine the actual influence that the economy had on Quebeckers' vote choice in that election, with the use of survey data collected in December 2008. The data allows us to verify whether “economic voting” in that election was of a traditional nature, that is based on retrospective assessments of economic conditions, or was more prospective in nature, that is based on perceptions of the parties' competence at managing the economic crisis that would soon follow. The impact on the vote of the issue of the Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec's losses is also analyzed.

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