Modelling the resilience of forage crop production to future climate change in the dairy regions of Southeastern Australia using APSIM

SUMMARYA warmer and potentially drier future climate is likely to influence the production of forage crops on dairy farms in the southeast dairy regions of Australia. Biophysical modelling was undertaken to explore the resilience of forage production of individual forage crops to scalar increases in temperature, atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration and changes in daily rainfall. The model APSIM was adapted to reflect species specific responses to growth under elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations. It was then used to simulate 40 years of production of forage wheat, oats, annual ryegrass, maize grown for silage, forage sorghum, forage rape and alfalfa grown at three locations in southeast Australia with increased temperature scenarios (1, 2, 3 and 4 °C of warming) and atmospheric CO2 concentration (435, 535, 640 and 750 ppm) and decreasing rainfall scenarios (10, 20 or 30% less rainfall). At all locations positive increases in DM yield compared with the baseline climate scenario were predicted for lucerne (2·6–93·2% increase), wheat (8·9–37·4% increase), oats (6·1–35·9% increase) and annual ryegrass (9·7–66·7% increase) under all future climate scenarios. The response of forage rape and forage sorghum varied between location and climate change scenario. At all locations, maize was predicted to have a minimal change in yield under all future climates (between a 2·6% increase and a 6·8% decrease). The future climate scenarios altered the seasonal pattern of forage supply for wheat, oats and lucerne with an increase in forage produced during winter. The resilience of forage crops to climate change indicates that they will continue to be an important component of dairy forage production in southeastern Australia.

Download Full-text

Dynamics of soil organic carbon in the steppes of Russia and Kazakhstan under past and future climate and land use

Regional Environmental Change ◽

10.1007/s10113-021-01799-7 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 21 (3) ◽

Author(s):

Susanne Rolinski ◽

Alexander V. Prishchepov ◽

Georg Guggenberger ◽

Norbert Bischoff ◽

Irina Kurganova ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Organic Carbon ◽

Land Use Change ◽

Soil Organic Carbon ◽

Arable Land ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Climate Scenarios ◽

The Impact

AbstractChanges in land use and climate are the main drivers of change in soil organic matter contents. We investigated the impact of the largest policy-induced land conversion to arable land, the Virgin Lands Campaign (VLC), from 1954 to 1963, of the massive cropland abandonment after 1990 and of climate change on soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in steppes of Russia and Kazakhstan. We simulated carbon budgets from the pre-VLC period (1900) until 2100 using a dynamic vegetation model to assess the impacts of observed land-use change as well as future climate and land-use change scenarios. The simulations suggest for the entire VLC region (266 million hectares) that the historic cropland expansion resulted in emissions of 1.6⋅ 1015 g (= 1.6 Pg) carbon between 1950 and 1965 compared to 0.6 Pg in a scenario without the expansion. From 1990 to 2100, climate change alone is projected to cause emissions of about 1.8 (± 1.1) Pg carbon. Hypothetical recultivation of the cropland that has been abandoned after the fall of the Soviet Union until 2050 may cause emissions of 3.5 (± 0.9) Pg carbon until 2100, whereas the abandonment of all cropland until 2050 would lead to sequestration of 1.8 (± 1.2) Pg carbon. For the climate scenarios based on SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) emission pathways, SOC declined only moderately for constant land use but substantially with further cropland expansion. The variation of SOC in response to the climate scenarios was smaller than that in response to the land-use scenarios. This suggests that the effects of land-use change on SOC dynamics may become as relevant as those of future climate change in the Eurasian steppes.

Download Full-text

Including Variability across Climate Change Projections in Assessing Impacts on Water Resources in an Intensively Managed Landscape

Water ◽

10.3390/w11020286 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 11 (2) ◽

pp. 286

Author(s):

Bangshuai Han ◽

Shawn G. Benner ◽

Alejandro N. Flores

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Future Climate ◽

Coupled Processes ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Irrigated Agriculture ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Climate Scenarios ◽

Irrigation Amount ◽

Stochastic Weather Generator ◽

Intensively Managed

：In intensively managed watersheds, water scarcity is a product of interactions between complex biophysical processes and human activities. Understanding how intensively managed watersheds respond to climate change requires modeling these coupled processes. One challenge in assessing the response of these watersheds to climate change lies in adequately capturing the trends and variability of future climates. Here we combine a stochastic weather generator together with future projections of climate change to efficiently create a large ensemble of daily weather for three climate scenarios, reflecting recent past and two future climate scenarios. With a previously developed model that captures rainfall-runoff processes and the redistribution of water according to declared water rights, we use these large ensembles to evaluate how future climate change may impact satisfied and unsatisfied irrigation throughout the study area, the Treasure Valley in Southwest Idaho, USA. The numerical experiments quantify the changing rate of allocated and unsatisfied irrigation amount and reveal that the projected temperature increase more significantly influences allocated and unsatisfied irrigation amounts than precipitation changes. The scenarios identify spatially distinct regions in the study area that are at greater risk of the occurrence of unsatisfied irrigation. This study demonstrates how combining stochastic weather generators and future climate projections can support efforts to assess future risks of negative water resource outcomes. It also allows identification of regions in the study area that may be less suitable for irrigated agriculture in future decades, potentially benefiting planners and managers.

Download Full-text

A framework for modelling fish and shellfish responses to future climate change

ICES Journal of Marine Science ◽

10.1093/icesjms/fsp057 ◽

2009 ◽

Vol 66 (7) ◽

pp. 1584-1594 ◽

Cited By ~ 100

Author(s):

Anne Babcock Hollowed ◽

Nicholas A. Bond ◽

Thomas K. Wilderbuer ◽

William T. Stockhausen ◽

Z. Teresa A'mar ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Surface Temperature ◽

Bering Sea ◽

Environmental Variables ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Climate Scenarios ◽

The Mean ◽

Fish And Shellfish ◽

The Bering Sea

AbstractHollowed, A. B., Bond, N. A., Wilderbuer, T. K., Stockhausen, W. T., A'mar, Z. T., Beamish, R. J., Overland, J. E., and Schirripa, M. J. 2009. A framework for modelling fish and shellfish responses to future climate change. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 66: 1584–1594. A framework is outlined for a unified approach to forecasting the implications of climate change on production of marine fish. The framework involves five steps: (i) identification of mechanisms underlying the reproductive success, growth, and distribution of major fish and shellfish populations, (ii) assessment of the feasibility of downscaling implications of climate scenarios derived from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) models for regional ecosystems to select and estimate relevant environmental variables, (iii) evaluation of climate model scenarios and select IPCC models that appear to provide valid representations of forcing for the region of study, (iv) extraction of environmental variables from climate scenarios and incorporation into projection models for fish and shellfish, and (v) evaluation of the mean, variance, and trend in fish and shellfish production under a changing ecosystem. This framework was applied to forecast summer sea surface temperature in the Bering Sea from 2001 to 2050. The mean summer surface temperature was predicted to increase by 2°C by 2050. The forecasting framework was also used to estimate the effects of climate change on production of northern rock sole (Lepidopsetta polyxystra) through projected changes in cross-shelf transport of larvae in the Bering Sea. Results suggest that climate change will lead to a modest increase in the production of strong year classes of northern rock sole.

Download Full-text

Ecosystem Services under Climate Change Impact Water Infrastructure in a Highly Forested Basin

Water ◽

10.3390/w12102825 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (10) ◽

pp. 2825

Author(s):

Xupu Li ◽

Liwei Zhang ◽

Patrick J. O’Connor ◽

Junping Yan ◽

Bin Wang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Ecosystem Services ◽

River Basin ◽

Soil Conservation ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Climate Scenarios ◽

Stochastic Weather Generator ◽

Related Services ◽

Hanjiang River

Climate change can have critical impacts on ecosystem services (ESs) and their inter-relationships, especially for water-related services. However, there has been little work done on characterizing the current and future changes in these services and their inter-relationships under a changing climate. Based on the revised universal soil loss equation (RUSLE), the soil conservation service curve number model (SCS-CN), and the improved stochastic weather-generator-based statistical downscaled global climate models (GCMs), we examined two important water-related services, namely, the soil conservation (SC) service and the flood mitigation (FM) service, and their inter-relationship under baseline and future climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5). We took the Upper Hanjiang River Basin (UHRB), which is the core water source area of the China’s South-to-North Water Diversion Project (S–NWDP), as an illustration. The findings revealed that (1) the SC and FM services will both decrease under the two climate scenarios examined; (2) the SC and FM services showed a significant synergistic inter-relationship and the synergy will be improved by 16.48% and 2.95% under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively, which provides an opportunity for management optimization; (3) the ecological degradation in the UHRB will likely have serious consequences for the middle and lower reaches of the Hanjiang river basin, and therefore impact the actual economic benefits of the S–NWDP. This study points to the necessity for understanding the dynamic changes and inter-relationships of ecosystem services under future climate change and provides information regarding the consequences of climate change, which is useful for policy and infrastructure investment.

Download Full-text

ESTIMATES OF CHANGES IN COUNTY-LEVEL HOUSING PRICES IN THE UNITED STATES UNDER SCENARIOS OF FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE

Climate Change Economics ◽

10.1142/s2010007814500092 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 05 (03) ◽

pp. 1450009

Author(s):

FRANCES SUSSMAN ◽

BANSARI SAHA ◽

BRITTA G. BIERWAGEN ◽

CHRISTOPHER P. WEAVER ◽

WILL COOPER ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

United States ◽

Price Change ◽

Housing Prices ◽

The United States ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Climate Variables ◽

Climate Scenarios ◽

Amenity Value

Climate in a given location influences people's housing decisions, and changes in climate may affect these decisions in ways that alter our understanding of desirable locations. This study examines the potential sensitivity of future housing prices in the United States to changes in temperature, precipitation, and humidity by developing a hedonic regression model of the relationship between climate variables and housing prices and exploring implications of different climate futures for the amenity value of climate in these prices. The model shows a significant relationship between housing prices in urban areas and certain climate variables. The study then examines the sensitivity of the amenity value of climate to future climate scenarios. Results suggest that, nationally, climate change represents a disamenity, particularly in central-to-southeastern states. However, detailed housing prices vary spatially and among scenarios. Seasonal variation in temperature, including the relative magnitudes of the change in January and July temperatures, is a key determinant of housing price change, contributing to variation across both climate scenarios and geographic location.

Download Full-text

Expertly validated models suggest responses to climate change are related to species traits: a phylogenetically-controlled analysis of the Order Lagomorpha

10.1101/001826 ◽

2014 ◽

Author(s):

Katie Leach ◽

Ruth Kelly ◽

Alison Cameron ◽

W.Ian Montgomery ◽

Neil Reid

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Species Traits ◽

Future Climate ◽

Mitigation Measures ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Expert Evaluation ◽

Climate Scenarios ◽

Natural Ecosystems ◽

Distribution Models ◽

Current Climate

Climate change during the last five decades has impacted significantly on natural ecosystems and the rate of current climate change is of great concern among conservation biologists. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) have been used widely to project changes in species’ bioclimatic envelopes under future climate scenarios. Here, we aimed to advance this technique by assessing future changes in the bioclimatic envelopes of an entire mammalian Order, the Lagomorpha, using a novel framework for model validation based jointly on subjective expert evaluation and objective model evaluation statistics. SDMs were built using climatic, topographical and habitat variables for all 87 species under past and current climate scenarios. Expert evaluation and Kappa values were used to validate past and current distribution models and only those deemed ‘modellable’ through our framework were projected under future climate scenarios (58 species). We then used phylogenetically-controlled regressions to test whether species traits were correlated with predicted responses to climate change. Climate change will impact more than two-thirds of the Lagomorpha, with leporids (rabbits, hares and jackrabbits) likely to undertake poleward shifts with little overall change in range extent, whilst pikas are likely to show extreme shifts to higher altitudes associated with marked range declines, including the likely extinction of Kozlov’s Pika (Ochotona koslowi). Smaller-bodied species were more likely to exhibit range contractions and elevational increases, but showing little poleward movement, and fecund species were more likely to shift latitudinally and elevationally. Our results suggest that species traits may be important indicators of future climate change and we believe multi-species approaches, as demonstrated here, are likely to lead to more effective mitigation measures and conservation management.

Download Full-text

High Sowing Densities in Rainfed Common Beans (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) in Mexican Semi-Arid Highlands under Future Climate Change

Agronomy ◽

10.3390/agronomy10030442 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 10 (3) ◽

pp. 442

Author(s):

Alma Delia Baez-Gonzalez ◽

Ricardo Fajardo-Díaz ◽

Giovanni Garcia-Romero ◽

Esteban Osuna-Ceja ◽

James R. Kiniry ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Phaseolus Vulgaris ◽

Common Bean ◽

Growth Habit ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Climate Scenarios ◽

Phaseolus Vulgaris L ◽

Rainfed Conditions ◽

Semi Arid

Mexico holds the largest single bean production area in the world that is vulnerable to drought. Using field data and two future climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for the period 2020–2039, this study evaluated three common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) cultivars planted under rainfed conditions at different densities in two locations in the north-central Mexican semi-arid temperate highlands. The sowing densities were 90,000, 145,000, and 260,000 plants ha−1 established in single rows (SR), three rows (3R), and six rows (6R), respectively. The climate change scenarios were derived from an assembly model integrating 11 general circulation models (GCM) selected for Mexico with a 30” arc resolution. The baseline climate was for the period 1961–2010. The ALMANACMEX model (USDA-ARS-INIFAP, Temple, USA) was parameterized and evaluated and then re-run using the climate scenarios. Beans planted at 6R showed the highest increase in seed yield in both climate scenarios, although the response varied by cultivar and time periods. For the growth habit III cultivars, Flor de Mayo Bajio showed no difference in yield, while Pinto Saltillo, a drought-resistant cultivar, showed increases of 13% to 16% at 6R only until 2033. Growth habit I cultivar Azufrado 2 showed more than 60% increases at 6R in both climate scenarios for the full period 2020–2039. These results suggest that considering the projected climate conditions, high sowing densities may be a viable agronomic option for common bean production under rainfed conditions in semi-arid temperate regions, such as the highlands of Mexico, in the near future; however, the selection of the cultivar is a key element to consider in this regard.

Download Full-text

Application of a distributed catchment model to investigate hydrological impacts of climate change within Poyang Lake catchment (China)

Hydrology Research ◽

10.2166/nh.2016.234 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 47 (S1) ◽

pp. 120-135 ◽

Cited By ~ 25

Author(s):

Y. L. Li ◽

H. Tao ◽

J. Yao ◽

Q. Zhang

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Model ◽

Poyang Lake ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Mean Annual Precipitation ◽

Distributed Hydrological Model ◽

Climate Scenarios ◽

Lake Catchment

The extreme cycles of flood and drought in the Poyang Lake catchment (China) place immense pressure on the region's water users and ecosystems. This study examines potential impacts of future climate change in the Poyang Lake catchment using the popular regional climate model, COSMO-CLM, and a distributed hydrological model, WATLAC. Near-future projections (2016–2035) indicate that the mean annual precipitation and temperature are expected to increase over the catchment, with the exception of some northern regions. Relative to the baseline period (1986–2005), the monthly mean precipitation is projected to increase in spring, summer and autumn (March-October), and to decrease in winter (November-February), with the most significant changes in September (62%) and January (−39%). Projected increases in monthly mean temperatures range from 0.3 to 1.4 °C, 0.2 to 0.7 °C, and 0.2 to 1.2 °C for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) climate scenarios RCP2.6, 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. Winter temperatures are expected to increase significantly regardless of the climate scenarios. WATLAC simulations indicate that future climate changes will lead to increased high flows in summer and reduced low flows in winter, in terms of both frequency and magnitude, suggesting a high likelihood of an increase in frequency and severity of flooding and droughts in the Poyang Lake catchment.

Download Full-text