An evaluation of Chinese annual earthquake predictions, 1990–1998

The annual earthquake predictions of the China Seismological Bureau (CSB) are evaluated by means of an R score (an R score is approximately 0 for completely random guesses, and approximately 1 for completely successful predictions). The average R score of the annual predictions in China in the period 1990–1998 is about 0.184, significantly larger than 0.0. However, background seismicity is higher in seismically active regions. If a ‘random guess' prediction is chosen to be proportional to the background seismicity, the expected R score is 0.123, and the nine-year mean R score of 0.184 as observed is only marginally higher than this background value. Monte Carlo tests indicate that the probability of attaining an R score of actual prediction by background seismicity based on random guess is about . It is concluded that earthquake prediction in China is still in a very preliminary stage, barely above a pure chance level.

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Assessing ‘alarm-based CN’ earthquake predictions in Italy

Annals of Geophysics ◽

10.4401/ag-6889 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 59 (6) ◽

Author(s):

Matteo Taroni ◽

Warner Marzocchi ◽

Pamela Roselli

Keyword(s):

Earthquake Prediction ◽

News Media ◽

Poisson Model ◽

Prediction Performance ◽

Testing Procedures ◽

Earthquake Predictability ◽

Forecast Models ◽

Earthquake Predictions ◽

Cn Algorithm ◽

Italian Territory

<p>The quantitative assessment of the performance of earthquake prediction and/or forecast models is essential for evaluating their applicability for risk reduction purposes. Here we assess the earthquake prediction performance of the CN model applied to the Italian territory. This model has been widely publicized in Italian news media, but a careful assessment of its prediction performance is still lacking. In this paper we evaluate the results obtained so far from the CN algorithm applied to the Italian territory, by adopting widely used testing procedures and under development in the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) network. Our results show that the CN prediction performance is comparable to the prediction performance of the stationary Poisson model, that is, CN predictions do not add more to what may be expected from random chance.</p>

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Seismicity alert probabilities at Parkfield, California, revisited

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America ◽

10.1785/bssa0880010117 ◽

1998 ◽

Vol 88 (1) ◽

pp. 117-130

Author(s):

Andrew J. Michael ◽

Lucile M. Jones

Keyword(s):

Uniform Distribution ◽

Earthquake Prediction ◽

Confidence Level ◽

San Andreas Fault ◽

Strike Slip ◽

San Andreas ◽

Background Seismicity ◽

Parkfield Earthquake ◽

The U.S

Abstract For a decade, the U.S. Geological Survey has used the Parkfield Earthquake Prediction Experiment scenario document to estimate the probability that earthquakes observed on the San Andreas fault near Parkfield will turn out to be foreshocks followed by the expected magnitude 6 mainshocks. During this time, we have learned much about the seismogenic process at Parkfield, about the long-term probability of the Parkfield mainshock, and about the estimation of these types of probabilities. The probabilities for potential foreshocks at Parkfield are reexamined and revised in light of these advances. As part of this process, we have confirmed both the rate of foreshocks before strike-slip earthquakes in the San Andreas physiographic province and the uniform distribution of foreshocks with magnitude proposed by earlier studies. Compared to the earlier assessment, these new estimates of the long-term probability of the Parkfield mainshock are lower, our estimate of the rate of background seismicity is higher, and we find that the assumption that foreshocks at Parkfield occur in a unique way is not statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. While the exact numbers vary depending on the assumptions that are made, the new alert probabilities are lower than previously estimated. Considering the various assumptions and the statistical uncertainties in the input parameters, we also compute a plausible range for the probabilities. The range is large, partly due to the extra knowledge that exists for the Parkfield segment, making us question the usefulness of these numbers.

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The social implications of earthquake predictions and warnings on and for organisations

Bulletin of the New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engineering ◽

10.5459/bnzsee.11.1.15-18 ◽

1978 ◽

Vol 11 (1) ◽

pp. 15-18

Author(s):

N. R. Britton

Keyword(s):

Earthquake Prediction ◽

Economic Effects ◽

Social Implications ◽

The Social ◽

Earthquake Predictions

Proceedings of the seminar on the social and economic effects of earthquake prediction, 12 October, 1977.

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Earthquake predictions and scientific forecast: dangers and opportunities for a technical and anthropological perspective

Earth Sciences Research Journal ◽

10.15446/esrj.v23n4.77206 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 23 (4) ◽

pp. 309-315 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Edgar Tapia-Hernández ◽

Elizabeth A. Reddy ◽

Laura Josabeth Oros-Aviles

Keyword(s):

Risk Management ◽

Earthquake Prediction ◽

Disaster Risk Reduction ◽

Disaster Risk ◽

Economic Effects ◽

Earthquake Risk ◽

Anthropological Perspective ◽

Technical Data ◽

Earthquake Predictions ◽

Informal Settings

Supporting earthquake risk management with clear seismic communication may necessitate encounters with various popular misapprehensions regarding earthquake prediction. Drawing on technical data as well as insights from anthropology and economics, this paper addresses common and scientifically-unsupported ideas about earthquake prediction, as well as the state of science-based studies regarding statistical forecasting and physical precursors. The authors reflect on documented social and economic effects of unsubstantiated earthquake predictions, and argue that these may be dangerous but may also present certain opportunities for outreach and education in formal and informal settings. This paper is written in light of the importance that the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction has placed on coordination and communication within and among diverse organizations and agencies as well as by recent popularity of so-called earthquake prediction in Mexico.

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Local multiboson factorization of the quark determinant

EPJ Web of Conferences ◽

10.1051/epjconf/201817511005 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 175 ◽

pp. 11005 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Marco Cè ◽

Leonardo Giusti ◽

Stefan Schaefer

Keyword(s):

Monte Carlo ◽

Form Factors ◽

Active Regions ◽

Monte Carlo Sampling ◽

Heavy Meson ◽

Meson Decay ◽

Multilevel Monte Carlo ◽

Signal To Noise ◽

Lattice Computation ◽

Decay Form

We discuss the recently proposed multiboson domain-decomposed factorization of the gauge-field dependence of the fermion determinant in lattice QCD. In particular, we focus on the case of a lattice divided in an arbitrary number of thick time slices. As a consequence, multiple space-time regions can be updated independently. This allows to address the exponential degradation of the signal-to-noise ration of correlation functions with multilevel Monte Carlo sampling. We show numerical evidence of the effectiveness of a two-level integration for pseudoscalar propagators with momentum and for vector propagators, in a two active regions setup. These results are relevant to lattice computation of the hadronic contributions to the anomalous magnetic moment of the muon and to heavy meson decay form factors.

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Three attempts of earthquake prediction with satellite cloud images

Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ◽

10.5194/nhess-13-91-2013 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 13 (1) ◽

pp. 91-95 ◽

Cited By ~ 16

Author(s):

G. Guangmeng ◽

Y. Jie

Keyword(s):

Earthquake Prediction ◽

Satellite Data ◽

Prediction Accuracy ◽

Geophysical Data ◽

Thermal Anomalies ◽

Linear Pattern ◽

Distance Error ◽

Earthquake Predictions ◽

Good Agreement

Abstract. Thermal anomalies detected from satellite data are widely reported. Nearly all the anomalies are reported after the quake. Here we report three earthquake predictions in Italy and Iran according to satellite cloud anomalies. These cloud anomalies usually show a linear pattern, stay there for hours and do not move with winds. According to these anomalies, we can give a rough estimation about impending earthquake activities. All the estimated dates and magnitudes are in good agreement with the earthquake facts, and the only unsatisfactory point is that the distance error is 100–300 km. Because the cloud anomaly is long, we can not reduce the distance error further. A possible way is to combine geophysical data and satellite data together to estimate the epicenter and this will increase the prediction accuracy.

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Outbursts of comet Schwassmann-Wachmann 1, and the cloud of interplanetary boulders

International Astronomical Union Colloquium ◽

10.1017/s0252921100034035 ◽

1974 ◽

Vol 22 ◽

pp. 307 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Zdenek Sekanina

Keyword(s):

Monte Carlo ◽

Monte Carlo Method ◽

Interplanetary Space ◽

Porous Matrix ◽

Maximum Diameter ◽

Expansion Velocity ◽

Solid Constituent ◽

Meteoric Material ◽

Periodic Comet

AbstractIt is suggested that the outbursts of Periodic Comet Schwassmann-Wachmann 1 are triggered by impacts of interplanetary boulders on the surface of the comet’s nucleus. The existence of a cloud of such boulders in interplanetary space was predicted by Harwit (1967). We have used the hypothesis to calculate the characteristics of the outbursts – such as their mean rate, optically important dimensions of ejected debris, expansion velocity of the ejecta, maximum diameter of the expanding cloud before it fades out, and the magnitude of the accompanying orbital impulse – and found them reasonably consistent with observations, if the solid constituent of the comet is assumed in the form of a porous matrix of lowstrength meteoric material. A Monte Carlo method was applied to simulate the distributions of impacts, their directions and impact velocities.

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Synoptic Charts of the Solar Eclipses of 1990 and 1991

International Astronomical Union Colloquium ◽

10.1017/s0252921100025963 ◽

1994 ◽

Vol 144 ◽

pp. 517-521

Author(s):

Z. Mouradian ◽

G. Buchholtz ◽

G. Zlicaric

Keyword(s):

Solar Limb ◽

Active Regions ◽

Solar Eclipses ◽

Coronal Structures

AbstractThe synoptic charts of solar rotations 1831 and 1844 have been drawn up, corresponding to the eclipses of 22 July 1990 and 11 July 1991. These charts contain the active regions and the filaments, and show the position of the solar limb, at the time of the eclipse. They are for use in studying the coronal structures observed during these eclipses. The variation of these structures is given in the table. The last section of the article contains a formula for identifying the structures out of the limb.

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Solar Corona Investigation by the Coronal Line Photometer at Lomnický Peak

International Astronomical Union Colloquium ◽

10.1017/s0252921100025744 ◽

1994 ◽

Vol 144 ◽

pp. 431-434

Author(s):

M. Minarovjech ◽

M. Rybanský

Keyword(s):

Solar Corona ◽

Time Resolution ◽

Active Regions ◽

High Time ◽

High Time Resolution ◽

List Type ◽

Type Number ◽

Coronal Line ◽

Global Cycle

AbstractThis paper deals with a possibility to use the ground-based method of observation in order to solve basic problems connected with the solar corona research. Namely:1.heating of the solar corona2.course of the global cycle in the corona3.rotation of the solar corona and development of active regions.There is stressed a possibility of high-time resolution of the coronal line photometer at Lomnický Peak coronal station, and use of the latter to obtain crucial observations.

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