Risk Premium Information from Treasury-Bill Yields

2018 ◽  
Vol 53 (1) ◽  
pp. 437-454 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jaehoon Lee
Keyword(s):  
Risk Premium ◽  
Bond Yields ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Treasury Bonds ◽  
Yield Curves ◽  
Treasury Bill ◽  
Risk Premiums ◽  
Unique Information ◽  
Treasury Bond

I find that short-maturity Treasury-bill yields have unique information about risk premiums that is not spanned by long-maturity Treasury-bond yields. I estimate 2 components of risk premiums: long term and short term. The long-term component steepens the slope of yield curves and has a forecastability horizon of longer than 1 year. In contrast, the short-term component affects Treasury-bill yields but is almost invisible from Treasury bonds, has a forecastability horizon of less than 1 quarter, and is related to bond liquidity premiums.

Risk and the discount rate in forestry

1994 ◽  
Vol 24 (2) ◽  
pp. 390-397 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. David Klemperer ◽  
James F. Cathcart ◽  
Thomas Häring ◽  
Ralph J. Alig
Keyword(s):  
Discount Rate ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Certainty Equivalent ◽  
Investment Risk ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Risk Premiums ◽  
Forestry Investments ◽  
Equivalent Conditions

One of the most common ways to account for investment risk is to add a risk premium to the risk-free discount rate when computing present values of expected revenues which are uncertain. Using certainty-equivalent analysis, we show that the correct risk premium for short-term investments can easily be in the commonly used 7-percentage-point range. But for such risk premiums to be appropriate for long-term forestry investments, the necessary certainty-equivalent conditions often seem to be unreasonably restrictive. Results suggest that the appropriate risk premium may decline with lengthening payoff period for many forest investments. Limited empirical data provide tentative support, but more research is needed to resolve the issue. We review policy implications and suggest areas for further research.

A Note Concerning the Dynamics of Government Bond Yields

2021 ◽  
pp. 056943452098827
Author(s):  
Tanweer Akram
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Yield Curve ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
State Theory ◽  
Government Bond ◽  
Bond Yields ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Government Bonds

Keynes argued that the central bank can influence the long-term interest rate on government bonds and the shape of the yield curve mainly through the short-term interest rate. Several recent empirical studies that examine the dynamics of government bond yields not only substantiate Keynes’s view that the long-term interest rate responds markedly to the short-term interest rate but also have relevance for macroeconomic theory and policy. This article relates Keynes’s discussions of money, the state theory of money, financial markets, investors’ expectations, uncertainty, and liquidity preference to the dynamics of government bond yields for countries with monetary sovereignty. Investors’ psychology, herding behavior in financial markets, and uncertainty about the future reinforce the effects of the short-term interest rate and the central bank’s monetary policy actions on the long-term interest rate. JEL classifications: E12; E40; E43; E50; E58; E60; F30; G10; G12; H62; H63

scholarly journals The Long-Run Determinants of Indian Government Bond Yields

2019 ◽  
Vol 36 (1) ◽  
pp. 168-205 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tanweer Akram ◽  
Anupam Das
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Government Bond ◽  
Bond Yields ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Indian Government ◽  
Bond Yield ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Key Driver ◽  
The Government

This paper investigates the long-term determinants of the nominal yields of Indian government bonds (IGBs). It examines whether John Maynard Keynes’ supposition that the short-term interest rate is the key driver of the long-term government bond yield holds over the long run, after controlling for key economic factors. It also appraises if the government fiscal variable has an adverse effect on government bond yields over the long run. The models estimated in this paper show that in India the short-term interest rate is the key driver of the long-term government bond yield over the long run. However, the government debt ratio does not have any discernible adverse effect on IGB yields over the long run. These findings will help policy makers to (i) use information on the current trend of the short-term interest rate and other key macro variables to form their long-term outlook about IGB yields, and (ii) understand the policy implications of the government's fiscal stance.

scholarly journals Predicting Growth Components – Unemployment, Housing Prices and Consumption Using Both Government and Corporate Yield Curves

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 180
Author(s):  
Dan Saar ◽  
Yossi Yagil
Keyword(s):  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Positive Relationship ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Corporate Bonds ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Yield Curves ◽  
Government Bonds ◽  
Personal Consumption ◽  
Bond Spreads

In this study, we predict changes in specific segments of economic growth including the unemployment rate, the housing prices and changes in personal consumption by employing corporate and government bonds. Our hypothesis is that the use of yield curves of corporate bonds will improve the predictions over previous models that used only the yield curves of government bonds. Our results support that contention. We find that corporate bonds’ spreads actually help predicting the changes in both the unemployment rate and housing prices. We also find a significant positive relationship between bond spreads and future changes in personal consumption levels, but the results are weaker than in the other two segments. One additional finding worth noting is that government bonds are better predictors for the long-term, whereas corporate bonds are better indicators for the short-term.

scholarly journals Quantitative Monetary Easing and Risk in Financial Asset Markets

2006 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-54 ◽  
Author(s):  
Takeshi Kimura ◽  
David H. Small
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Corporate Bonds ◽  
Asset Markets ◽  
Low Grade ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Government Bonds ◽  
Risk Premiums ◽  
Portfolio Rebalancing

In this paper, we empirically examine the portfolio-rebalancing effects stemming from the policy of “quantitative monetary easing” recently undertaken by the Bank of Japan when the nominal short-term interest rate was virtually at zero. Portfolio-rebalancing effects resulting from the open market purchase of long-term government bonds under this policy have been statistically significant. Our results also show that the portfolio-rebalancing effects were beneficial in that they reduced risk premiums on assets with counter-cyclical returns, such as government and high-grade corporate bonds. But, they may have generated the adverse effects of increasing risk premiums on assets with pro-cyclical returns, such as equities and low-grade corporate bonds. These results are consistent with a CAPM framework in which business-cycle risk importantly affects risk premiums. Our estimates capture only some of the effects of quantitative easing and thus do not imply that the complete set of effects were adverse on net for Japan’s economy. However, our analysis counsels caution in accepting the view that, ceteris paribus, a massive large-scale purchase of long-term government bonds by a central bank provides unambiguously positive net benefits to financial markets at zero short-term interest rates.

The Risk Premium on Ordinary Shares

1995 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 251-330 ◽  
Author(s):  
A.D. Wilkie
Keyword(s):  
Risk Premium ◽  
Geometric Mean ◽  
Arithmetic Mean ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Arithmetic Means ◽  
Price Inflation ◽  
Geometric Means ◽  
True Model ◽  
The Difference

ABSTRACTThe risk premium on ordinary shares is investigated, by studying the total returns on ordinary shares, and on both long-term and short-term fixed-interest investments over the period 1919 to 1994, and by analysing the various components of that return. The total returns on ordinary shares exceeded those on fixed-interest investments by over 5% p.a. on a geometric mean basis and by over 7% p.a. on an arithmetic mean basis, but it is argued that these figures are misleading, because most of the difference can be accounted for by the fact that price inflation turned out to be about 4.5% p.a. over the period, whereas investors had been expecting zero inflation.Quotations from contemporary authors are brought forward to demonstrate what contemporary attitudes were. Simulations are used along with the Wilkie stochastic asset model to show what the results would be if investors make various assumptions about the future, but the true model turns out to be different from what they expected. The differences between geometric means of the data and arithmetic means are shown to correspond to differences between using medians or means of the distribution of future returns, and it is suggested that, for discounting purposes, medians are the better measure.

scholarly journals The impact of ESG rating on corporate bond yields

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 474-488
Author(s):  
Balázs Kotró ◽  
Martin Márkus
Keyword(s):  
Risk Premium ◽  
Time Horizon ◽  
Credit Rating ◽  
Corporate Bond ◽  
Bond Yields ◽  
Yield Curves ◽  
Social Governance ◽  
The Usa ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Rating Category

This paper is to investigate whether markets assess corporate bonds riskier if their issuers have lower ESG (Environmental Social Governance) scores. For the study we used the corporate yield curves of Refinitiv further segmented by credit rating. The added risk of the ESG factor was measured in the time horizon of 2015 to 2020. It has turned out that in the USA in the group of the best debtor companies by Moody’s investors expected companies with the lowest ESG scores to provide a 35 basis point higher risk premium compared to their counterparts with the highest ESG scores. This statement is also valid for the E, S and G-rating separately. In line with another trend, the riskier your credit rating category, the lower is the risk premium caused by the lack of responsible management.

scholarly journals The Pure Expectations Theory and Quarterly Interest Rate Premiums

2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 161
Author(s):  
Samih Antoine Azar
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Sampling Error ◽  
Small Sample ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Risk Premiums ◽  
Sample Bias ◽  
Conditional Tests ◽  
The Difference

The expectations theory posits that the long interest rate is an average of expected short term interest rates with the possibility of the existence of a risk premium. This paper looks upon fourteen samples of investments for which the difference in maturity is three months. All yields are actual yields and are adjusted to have the same maturities as the short rate. The evidence is strong for the pure expectations theory which predicts that the risk premiums are zero. This should not be surprising because the premium that we are looking for is merely 4 basis points per quarter. The contribution of this paper, besides giving support to the pure expectations theory, is to lay out the fundamental and basic methodology that one should follow in order to study other investments similar to ours. Both unconditional and conditional tests are performed. Because of sampling error and small-sample bias the unconditional tests may be preferable. 

scholarly journals Ambiguity, Nominal Bond Yields, and Real Bond Yields

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 177-192 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guihai Zhao
Keyword(s):  
Risk Premium ◽  
Bond Yields ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Inflation Risk ◽  
Expectations Hypothesis ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Difference

This paper presents an equilibrium bond-pricing model that jointly explains the upward-sloping nominal and real yield curves and the violation of the expectations hypothesis. Instead of relying on the inflation risk premium, the ambiguity-averse agent faces different amounts of Knightian uncertainty in the long run versus the short run; hence, the model-implied nominal and real short rate expectations are upward sloping under the agent’s worst-case equilibrium beliefs. The expectations hypothesis roughly holds under investors’ worst-case beliefs. The difference between the worst-case scenario and the true distribution makes realized excess returns on long-term bonds predictable. (JEL D81, D84, E23, E31, E43, E44, G12)

scholarly journals The Driving Factors of EMU Government Bond Yields: The Role of Debt, Liquidity and Fiscal Councils

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 53
Author(s):  
Anastasios Pappas ◽  
Ioannis Kostakis
Keyword(s):  
Risk Premium ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Government Bond ◽  
Bond Yields ◽  
The Public ◽  
Dummy Variable

This study presents empirical evidence about the determinants of long-term government bond yields for 19 economies of the European Monetary Union (EMU) over the period 1995–2018 within a multivariate panel framework. The fixed effects estimators reveal that the relationship between public debt to the GDP ratio and yields is non-linear. We observe a threshold, which is determined to be at the area 90% of the ratio of public debt to GDP. Beyond that, area government borrowing costs increase as the public debt rises. Furthermore, we find evidence that a GDP decline and the downgrades of sovereign ratings increase the costs of government borrowing. In contrast, the operation of independent fiscal institutions helps to reduce government’s debt risk premium. Finally, liquidity in the Euro area plays a significant role on yields determination. The results remain robust when the dynamic instrumental variable fixed effect (FE-2SLS) and dynamic panel least square dummy variable corrected (LSDVC) estimators are employed. Empirical findings suggest important policy implications for the ongoing Covid-19 crisis for the EMU.

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