Risk and the discount rate in forestry

1994 ◽  
Vol 24 (2) ◽  
pp. 390-397 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. David Klemperer ◽  
James F. Cathcart ◽  
Thomas Häring ◽  
Ralph J. Alig
Keyword(s):  
Discount Rate ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Certainty Equivalent ◽  
Investment Risk ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Risk Premiums ◽  
Forestry Investments ◽  
Equivalent Conditions

One of the most common ways to account for investment risk is to add a risk premium to the risk-free discount rate when computing present values of expected revenues which are uncertain. Using certainty-equivalent analysis, we show that the correct risk premium for short-term investments can easily be in the commonly used 7-percentage-point range. But for such risk premiums to be appropriate for long-term forestry investments, the necessary certainty-equivalent conditions often seem to be unreasonably restrictive. Results suggest that the appropriate risk premium may decline with lengthening payoff period for many forest investments. Limited empirical data provide tentative support, but more research is needed to resolve the issue. We review policy implications and suggest areas for further research.

Risk Premium Information from Treasury-Bill Yields

2018 ◽  
Vol 53 (1) ◽  
pp. 437-454 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jaehoon Lee
Keyword(s):  
Risk Premium ◽  
Bond Yields ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Treasury Bonds ◽  
Yield Curves ◽  
Treasury Bill ◽  
Risk Premiums ◽  
Unique Information ◽  
Treasury Bond

I find that short-maturity Treasury-bill yields have unique information about risk premiums that is not spanned by long-maturity Treasury-bond yields. I estimate 2 components of risk premiums: long term and short term. The long-term component steepens the slope of yield curves and has a forecastability horizon of longer than 1 year. In contrast, the short-term component affects Treasury-bill yields but is almost invisible from Treasury bonds, has a forecastability horizon of less than 1 quarter, and is related to bond liquidity premiums.

Policy Note: "Short-term Pain for Long-term Gain: Urban Water Pricing and the Risk-adjusted User Cost"

2019 ◽  
Vol 05 (02) ◽  
pp. 1871005 ◽  
Author(s):  
Long Chu ◽  
R. Quentin Grafton
Keyword(s):  
Risk Premium ◽  
Water Conservation ◽  
Dynamic Pricing ◽  
Water Pricing ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
User Cost ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Key Policy

The paper introduces the concept of the risk-adjusted user cost (RAUC) and its application to the volumetric price charged to water consumers. It is a risk premium that would be incorporated into and be a component of a dynamic pricing framework. The benefit of the RAUC is that it allows decision-makers to inter-temporally maximize social welfare when the future water supply is uncertain. The RAUC imposes higher volumetric prices today to promote water conservation and, thus, mitigate the possibility of future water restrictions. An application of how the RAUC can be estimated is provided based on data from the Australian Capital Territory, Australia. Key policy implications in relation to the RAUC and dynamic water pricing are also presented.

scholarly journals Short-Term Exuberance and Long-Term Stability: A Simultaneous Optimization of Stock Return Predictions for Short and Long Horizons

Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 620
Author(s):  
Ioannis Kyriakou ◽  
Parastoo Mousavi ◽  
Jens Perch Nielsen ◽  
Michael Scholz
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Simultaneous Optimization ◽  
Investment Risk ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Fundamental Interest ◽  
Long Term Stability ◽  
Risk Appetite ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Excess Stock Returns

The fundamental interest of investors in econometric modeling for excess stock returns usually focuses either on short- or long-term predictions to individually reduce the investment risk. In this paper, we present a new and simple model that contemporaneously accounts for short- and long-term predictions. By combining the different horizons, we exploit the lower long-term variance to further reduce the short-term variance, which is susceptible to speculative exuberance. As a consequence, the long-term pension-saver avoids an over-conservative portfolio with implied potential upside reductions given their optimal risk appetite. Different combinations of short and long horizons as well as definitions of excess returns, for example, concerning the traditional short-term interest rate but also the inflation, are easily accommodated in our model.

scholarly journals INVEST ASI, EKSPOR DAN MASALAH DE-INDUSTRIALISASI DI INDONESIA

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 179
Author(s):  
Anton Agus Setyawan ◽  
Fatchurrohman Fatchurrohman
Keyword(s):  
Direct Investment ◽  
Econometric Model ◽  
Slow Growth ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Investment Climate ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Investment Rate ◽  
The Ideal

There are two constraints in the process of economic recovery in Indonesia. First, investment rate is decreasing in the last five years. This matter happens due to the bad investment climate in Indonesia. Second, slow growth of export rate in Indonesia. At the present, investment rate in Indonesia is only 22 percent of GDP, while the ideal rate is 30 percent of GDP. Another problem, which may be interrupting the economic recovery, is de-industrialization. The sign of de-industrialization occur by relocation phenomena of FDIfrom Indonesia. This research analyze the effects of direct investment and export to GDP. The tool of analyses of this research is econometric model known as Error Correc­tion Models. The results shows that in a long term and short term, export and direct investment do not have a significant effect to GDP. It shows that Indonesia do not have a clear policy about export and investment. The policy implications of this research are government should have a deregulation policy in the industry and recover investment climate.

scholarly journals Intentional replacement of dead children in sub-Saharan Africa: evidence from Ghana and Kenya

2004 ◽  
Vol 31 (1) ◽  
pp. 33 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen Obeng Gyimah ◽  
Rajulton Fernando
Keyword(s):  
Childhood Mortality ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Physiological Effects ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Mortality Experience ◽  
First Child ◽  
Health Survey Data ◽  
Sub Saharan

This paper examines whether childhood deaths elicit an explicit, conscious and intentional fertility response using the 1998 Demographic and Health Survey data for Ghana and Kenya . Using multivariate hazard models, childhood mortality experience was found to have long term fertility implications beyond the short term physiological effects. In both countries, women who have experienced childhood mortality were found to have significantly higher number of additional children than those without. The death of the first child in particular was found to be associated with the risk of a higher order birth consistent with recent findings in Cameroon. The policy implications of the findings are discussed.

scholarly journals Quantitative Monetary Easing and Risk in Financial Asset Markets

2006 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-54 ◽  
Author(s):  
Takeshi Kimura ◽  
David H. Small
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Corporate Bonds ◽  
Asset Markets ◽  
Low Grade ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Government Bonds ◽  
Risk Premiums ◽  
Portfolio Rebalancing

In this paper, we empirically examine the portfolio-rebalancing effects stemming from the policy of “quantitative monetary easing” recently undertaken by the Bank of Japan when the nominal short-term interest rate was virtually at zero. Portfolio-rebalancing effects resulting from the open market purchase of long-term government bonds under this policy have been statistically significant. Our results also show that the portfolio-rebalancing effects were beneficial in that they reduced risk premiums on assets with counter-cyclical returns, such as government and high-grade corporate bonds. But, they may have generated the adverse effects of increasing risk premiums on assets with pro-cyclical returns, such as equities and low-grade corporate bonds. These results are consistent with a CAPM framework in which business-cycle risk importantly affects risk premiums. Our estimates capture only some of the effects of quantitative easing and thus do not imply that the complete set of effects were adverse on net for Japan’s economy. However, our analysis counsels caution in accepting the view that, ceteris paribus, a massive large-scale purchase of long-term government bonds by a central bank provides unambiguously positive net benefits to financial markets at zero short-term interest rates.

The Risk Premium on Ordinary Shares

1995 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 251-330 ◽  
Author(s):  
A.D. Wilkie
Keyword(s):  
Risk Premium ◽  
Geometric Mean ◽  
Arithmetic Mean ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Arithmetic Means ◽  
Price Inflation ◽  
Geometric Means ◽  
True Model ◽  
The Difference

ABSTRACTThe risk premium on ordinary shares is investigated, by studying the total returns on ordinary shares, and on both long-term and short-term fixed-interest investments over the period 1919 to 1994, and by analysing the various components of that return. The total returns on ordinary shares exceeded those on fixed-interest investments by over 5% p.a. on a geometric mean basis and by over 7% p.a. on an arithmetic mean basis, but it is argued that these figures are misleading, because most of the difference can be accounted for by the fact that price inflation turned out to be about 4.5% p.a. over the period, whereas investors had been expecting zero inflation.Quotations from contemporary authors are brought forward to demonstrate what contemporary attitudes were. Simulations are used along with the Wilkie stochastic asset model to show what the results would be if investors make various assumptions about the future, but the true model turns out to be different from what they expected. The differences between geometric means of the data and arithmetic means are shown to correspond to differences between using medians or means of the distribution of future returns, and it is suggested that, for discounting purposes, medians are the better measure.

scholarly journals Misleading Aggregate Considerations in Sector-Specific Causalities: Long-term Bank Credit Usage in Fishing vs. Agriculture in Turkey

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Celal Demirkol ◽  
Ali Faruk Acikgoz
Keyword(s):  
Financial Analysis ◽  
Control Variable ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Bank Credit ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Alternative Source ◽  
Agriculture Sector ◽  
Fishing Sector

As an alternative source of financing the assets, bank credits have ever been on the spot of business finance and financial analysis. Those sources of financing have mostly compared with the short-term appearance of either liabilities or liquidity. The relevant finance literature ensures that the long-term appearance of bank credits in the balance sheets of businesses is not only affected by the composition of short-term liabilities but also the liquidity. Nevertheless, bank credit usage, especially in the long-term, may have different characteristics amongst sectors. Some sectors may even deserve a thorough analysis in their challenge of bank credit finance. The fishing sector and the businesses which it contains may have been neglected in terms of revealing the causalities which might have been hidden by considering its aspects as a supplement in the aggregate figures of the agriculture sector in Turkey. Thus, this study aims at the core debt and liability variables along with a liquidity control variable, cash and cash equivalents or cash, to reveal the causality and cointegration aspects on the long-term bank credit potential in the nexus of these two inter-related sectors. We hereby compare the results of the model designed for the study in between fishing and agriculture sectors in Turkey for the time span of available and comparable data which has been represented by the Central Bank of Turkey as a part of nonfinancial or real sector data from 1996 up to 2009. The findings depict that fishing sector, unlikely to agriculture sector in which it is generally added and forced to share the same investment atmosphere of incentives, policy implications, and attitudes of the creditors, does have different features in terms of long-term bank credit usage. Cash and cash equivalents are not significant regressors for the agriculture sector, however, fishing sector has evidence in the long-run that cash and cash equivalents have noteworthy impact in the long-term bank credits. The results of the study will therefore help both the decisions on the creditors’ and fishing sector sides enriching the profound details and sector specific reasoning for which an aggregate point of view where fishing sector is seen as a part of agriculture sector could not reflect the sector’s characteristics on the path to develop the fishing sector and the businesses therein. We also believe that this study will present evidence for any policies and incentives in promoting new investments in the fishing sector of Turkey.

scholarly journals An empirical analysis of long-term Brazilian interest rates

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (9) ◽  
pp. e0257313
Author(s):  
Tanweer Akram ◽  
Syed Al-Helal Uddin
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Government Bond ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
Government Bonds ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Brazilian Government

This paper empirically models the dynamics of Brazilian government bond (BGB) yields based on monthly macroeconomic data, in the context of the evolution of the key macroeconomic variables in Brazil. The results show that the current short-term interest rate has a decisive influence on the long-term interest rate on BGBs, after controlling for various key macroeconomic variables, such as inflation and industrial production. These findings support John Maynard Keynes’s claim that the central bank’s actions influence the long-term interest rate on government bonds mainly through the current short-term interest rate. These findings have important policy implications for Brazil. This paper relates the findings of the estimated models to ongoing debates in fiscal and monetary policies.

scholarly journals The Pure Expectations Theory and Quarterly Interest Rate Premiums

2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 161
Author(s):  
Samih Antoine Azar
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Sampling Error ◽  
Small Sample ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Risk Premiums ◽  
Sample Bias ◽  
Conditional Tests ◽  
The Difference

The expectations theory posits that the long interest rate is an average of expected short term interest rates with the possibility of the existence of a risk premium. This paper looks upon fourteen samples of investments for which the difference in maturity is three months. All yields are actual yields and are adjusted to have the same maturities as the short rate. The evidence is strong for the pure expectations theory which predicts that the risk premiums are zero. This should not be surprising because the premium that we are looking for is merely 4 basis points per quarter. The contribution of this paper, besides giving support to the pure expectations theory, is to lay out the fundamental and basic methodology that one should follow in order to study other investments similar to ours. Both unconditional and conditional tests are performed. Because of sampling error and small-sample bias the unconditional tests may be preferable. 

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