scholarly journals Integrating serological and genetic data to quantify cross-species transmission: brucellosis as a case study

Parasitology ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 143 (7) ◽  
pp. 821-834 ◽  
Author(s):  
MAFALDA VIANA ◽  
GABRIEL M. SHIRIMA ◽  
KUNDA S. JOHN ◽  
JULIE FITZPATRICK ◽  
RUDOVICK R. KAZWALA ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Process Model ◽  
Epidemiological Data ◽  
Human Infection ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Northern Tanzania ◽  
Animal Infection ◽  
Latent Process ◽  
Level Of Understanding

SUMMARYEpidemiological data are often fragmented, partial, and/or ambiguous and unable to yield the desired level of understanding of infectious disease dynamics to adequately inform control measures. Here, we show how the information contained in widely available serology data can be enhanced by integration with less common type-specific data, to improve the understanding of the transmission dynamics of complex multi-species pathogens and host communities. Using brucellosis in northern Tanzania as a case study, we developed a latent process model based on serology data obtained from the field, to reconstruct Brucella transmission dynamics. We were able to identify sheep and goats as a more likely source of human and animal infection than cattle; however, the highly cross-reactive nature of Brucella spp. meant that it was not possible to determine which Brucella species (B. abortus or B. melitensis) is responsible for human infection. We extended our model to integrate simulated serology and typing data, and show that although serology alone can identify the host source of human infection under certain restrictive conditions, the integration of even small amounts (5%) of typing data can improve understanding of complex epidemiological dynamics. We show that data integration will often be essential when more than one pathogen is present and when the distinction between exposed and infectious individuals is not clear from serology data. With increasing epidemiological complexity, serology data become less informative. However, we show how this weakness can be mitigated by integrating such data with typing data, thereby enhancing the inference from these data and improving understanding of the underlying dynamics.

scholarly journals Reconstruction of the transmission dynamics of the first COVID-19 epidemic wave in Thailand

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chaiwat Wilasang ◽  
Natcha Jitsuk ◽  
Chayanin Sararat ◽  
Charin Modchang
Keyword(s):  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Infected Individual ◽  
Mainland China ◽  
Stochastic Modelling ◽  
Epidemiological Data ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Thai Government ◽  
And Control ◽  
Epidemic Wave

Abstract Thailand was the first country reporting the first Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infected individual outside mainland China. Here we delineated the course of the COVID-19 outbreak together with the timeline of the control measures and public health policies employed by the Thai government during the first wave of the COVID-19 outbreak in Thailand. Based on the comprehensive epidemiological data, we reconstructed the dynamics of COVID-19 transmission in Thailand using a stochastic modelling approach. Our stochastic model incorporated effects of individual heterogeneity in infectiousness on the disease transmission, which allows us to capture relevant features of superspreading events. We found that our model could accurately capture the transmission dynamics of the first COVID-19 epidemic wave in Thailand. The model predicted that at the end of the first wave, the number of cumulative confirmed cases was 3,091 (95%CI: 2,782 - 3,400). We also estimated the time-varying reproduction number (Rt) during the first epidemic wave. We found that after implementing the nationwide interventions, the Rt in Thailand decreased from the peak value of 5.67 to a value below one in less than one month, indicating that the control measures employed by the Thai government during the first COVID-19 epidemic wave were effective. Finally, effects of transmission heterogeneity and control measures on the likelihood of outbreak extinction were also investigated.

Biorefinery implementation for recovery debottlenecking at existing pulp mills- Part II: Techno-economic evaluation

TAPPI Journal ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 17-24 ◽  
Author(s):  
HAKIM GHEZZAZ ◽  
LUC PELLETIER ◽  
PAUL R. STUART
Keyword(s):  
Cost Estimation ◽  
Process Model ◽  
Black Liquor ◽  
Pulp Mill ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Economic Assessment ◽  
Extraction Process ◽  
Estimation Methods ◽  
Precipitation Process

The evaluation and process risk assessment of (a) lignin precipitation from black liquor, and (b) the near-neutral hemicellulose pre-extraction for recovery boiler debottlenecking in an existing pulp mill is presented in Part I of this paper, which was published in the July 2012 issue of TAPPI Journal. In Part II, the economic assessment of the two biorefinery process options is presented and interpreted. A mill process model was developed using WinGEMS software and used for calculating the mass and energy balances. Investment costs, operating costs, and profitability of the two biorefinery options have been calculated using standard cost estimation methods. The results show that the two biorefinery options are profitable for the case study mill and effective at process debottlenecking. The after-tax internal rate of return (IRR) of the lignin precipitation process option was estimated to be 95%, while that of the hemicellulose pre-extraction process option was 28%. Sensitivity analysis showed that the after tax-IRR of the lignin precipitation process remains higher than that of the hemicellulose pre-extraction process option, for all changes in the selected sensitivity parameters. If we consider the after-tax IRR, as well as capital cost, as selection criteria, the results show that for the case study mill, the lignin precipitation process is more promising than the near-neutral hemicellulose pre-extraction process. However, the comparison between the two biorefinery options should include long-term evaluation criteria. The potential of high value-added products that could be produced from lignin in the case of the lignin precipitation process, or from ethanol and acetic acid in the case of the hemicellulose pre-extraction process, should also be considered in the selection of the most promising process option.

scholarly journals The Role of Industry 4.0 and BPMN in the Arise of Condition-Based and Predictive Maintenance: A Case Study in the Automotive Industry

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 3438
Author(s):  
Jorge Fernandes ◽  
João Reis ◽  
Nuno Melão ◽  
Leonor Teixeira ◽  
Marlene Amorim
Keyword(s):  
Business Process ◽  
Automotive Industry ◽  
Industry 4.0 ◽  
Process Model ◽  
Business Process Management ◽  
Process Management ◽  
Predictive Maintenance ◽  
The Evolution Of Industry

This article addresses the evolution of Industry 4.0 (I4.0) in the automotive industry, exploring its contribution to a shift in the maintenance paradigm. To this end, we firstly present the concepts of predictive maintenance (PdM), condition-based maintenance (CBM), and their applications to increase awareness of why and how these concepts are revolutionizing the automotive industry. Then, we introduce the business process management (BPM) and business process model and notation (BPMN) methodologies, as well as their relationship with maintenance. Finally, we present the case study of the Renault Cacia, which is developing and implementing the concepts mentioned above.

scholarly journals Using a Process Approach to Pandemic Planning: A Case Study

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 4121
Author(s):  
Hana Tomaskova ◽  
Erfan Babaee Tirkolaee
Keyword(s):  
Process Model ◽  
Process Mining ◽  
Process Approach ◽  
Research Topic ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Critical Situation ◽  
Pandemic Planning ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Smart Technologies

The purpose of this article was to demonstrate the difference between a pandemic plan’s textual prescription and its effective processing using graphical notation. Before creating a case study of the Business Process Model and Notation (BPMN) of the Czech Republic’s pandemic plan, we conducted a systematic review of the process approach in pandemic planning and a document analysis of relevant public documents. The authors emphasized the opacity of hundreds of pages of text records in an explanatory case study and demonstrated the effectiveness of the process approach in reengineering and improving the response to such a critical situation. A potential extension to the automation and involvement of SMART technologies or process optimization through process mining techniques is presented as a future research topic.

scholarly journals Parameter-dependent transmission dynamics and optimal control of foot and mouth disease in a contaminated environment

2019 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Francis Mugabi ◽  
Joseph Mugisha ◽  
Betty Nannyonga ◽  
Henry Kasumba ◽  
Margaret Tusiime
Keyword(s):  
Optimal Control ◽  
Deterministic Model ◽  
Foot And Mouth Disease ◽  
Decay Rates ◽  
Mouth Disease ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Optimality System ◽  
Foot And Mouth ◽  
Environmental Decontamination

AbstractThe problem of foot and mouth disease (FMD) is of serious concern to the livestock sector in most nations, especially in developing countries. This paper presents the formulation and analysis of a deterministic model for the transmission dynamics of FMD through a contaminated environment. It is shown that the key parameters that drive the transmission of FMD in a contaminated environment are the shedding, transmission, and decay rates of the virus. Using numerical results, it is depicted that the host-to-host route is more severe than the environmental-to-host route. The model is then transformed into an optimal control problem. Using the Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle, the optimality system is determined. Utilizing a gradient type algorithm with projection, the optimality system is solved for three control strategies: optimal use of vaccination, environmental decontamination, and a combination of vaccination and environmental decontamination. Results show that a combination of vaccination and environmental decontamination is the most optimal strategy. These results indicate that if vaccination and environmental decontamination are used optimally during an outbreak, then FMD transmission can be controlled. Future studies focusing on the control measures for the transmission of FMD in a contaminated environment should aim at reducing the transmission and the shedding rates, while increasing the decay rate.

scholarly journals Human Cystic Echinococcosis in Lebanon: A Retrospective Study and Molecular Epidemiology

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gaelle Joanny ◽  
Maria Grazia Cappai ◽  
Francesca Nonnis ◽  
Claudia Tamponi ◽  
Giorgia Dessì ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Echinococcus Granulosus ◽  
Cystic Echinococcosis ◽  
Epidemiological Data ◽  
Sensu Stricto ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Mediterranean Countries ◽  
High Gene ◽  
Human Infections ◽  
And Control ◽  
Human Cystic Echinococcosis

Abstract Purpose Human cystic echinococcosis (CE) is a zoonotic parasitic disease that constitutes a public health challenge and a socio-economic burden in endemic areas worldwide. No specific surveillance system of CE infections in humans exists in Lebanon. The incidence and trends over time have not been documented. The current study aimed to assess the demographic and epidemiologic features of human CE surgical cases over a 14-year period in the five main regions of Lebanon. Methods From 2005 to 2018, a total of 894 surgically confirmed cases of hydatidosis were recorded from five anatomy and pathology laboratories. Results The mean annual surgical incidence was 1.23/100,000 inhabitants. Over the span of these years, the incidence increased from 0.53 to 1.94 cases/100,000 inhabitants in 2005 and 2018, respectively. CE is present in Lebanon with an uneven distribution from one region to the other with higher prevalence in Bekaa (29.0%), a rural area where sheep raising is widespread. Human CE cases were more common in females (60.1%) than in males (39.9%) and a high burden of infection was reported for the age group of 30–39 years. Besides, 66.7% of the cases expressed only liver complications whereas, 20.5% showed predilection towards lungs. The 7.8% of cases presented cysts in other organs, and 1.3% showed multiple localizations. Additionally, predominant involvement of Echinococcus granulosus sensu stricto was recorded in human infections. Comparison of Echinococcus granulosus s.s. populations from different Mediterranean countries also revealed high gene flow among this region and sharing of alleles. Conclusion The current study is a step forward to fill the gap of knowledge for the hydatidosis in Lebanon where the lack of epidemiological data and control measures have resulted in higher incidence of human CE. Graphic Abstract

scholarly journals SARS-CoV-2 shifting transmission dynamics and hidden reservoirs potentially limit efficacy of public health interventions in Italy

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Marta Giovanetti ◽  
Eleonora Cella ◽  
Francesca Benedetti ◽  
Brittany Rife Magalis ◽  
Vagner Fonseca ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Epidemiological Data ◽  
Health Interventions ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Public Health Interventions ◽  
Viral Spread ◽  
Three Phase ◽  
Phylodynamic Analysis ◽  
Epidemic Wave ◽  
Over Time

AbstractWe investigated SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics in Italy, one of the countries hit hardest by the pandemic, using phylodynamic analysis of viral genetic and epidemiological data. We observed the co-circulation of multiple SARS-CoV-2 lineages over time, which were linked to multiple importations and characterized by large transmission clusters concomitant with a high number of infections. Subsequent implementation of a three-phase nationwide lockdown strategy greatly reduced infection numbers and hospitalizations. Yet we present evidence of sustained viral spread among sporadic clusters acting as “hidden reservoirs” during summer 2020. Mathematical modelling shows that increased mobility among residents eventually catalyzed the coalescence of such clusters, thus driving up the number of infections and initiating a new epidemic wave. Our results suggest that the efficacy of public health interventions is, ultimately, limited by the size and structure of epidemic reservoirs, which may warrant prioritization during vaccine deployment.

scholarly journals Tularemia as a Mosquito-Borne Disease

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 26
Author(s):  
Zakaria Abdellahoum ◽  
Max Maurin ◽  
Idir Bitam
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Francisella Tularensis ◽  
Research Work ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Epidemiological Data ◽  
Human Infection ◽  
Etiological Agent ◽  
Etiologic Agents

Francisella tularensis (Ft) is the etiological agent of tularemia, a disease known for over 100 years in the northern hemisphere. Ft includes four subspecies, of which two are the etiologic agents of tularemia: Ft subsp. tularensis (Ftt) and Ft subsp. holarctica (Fth), mainly distributed in North America and the whole northern hemisphere, respectively. Several routes of human infection with these bacteria exist, notably through bites of Ixodidae ticks. However, mosquitoes represent the main vectors of Fth in Scandinavia, where large tularemia outbreaks have occurred, usually during the warm season. The mechanisms making mosquitoes vectors of Fth are still unclear. This review covers the inventory of research work and epidemiological data linking tularemia to mosquitoes in Scandinavia and highlights the gaps in understanding mosquitoes and Ft interactions.

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