scholarly journals A TEST FOR WEAK STATIONARITY IN THE SPECTRAL DOMAIN

2018 ◽  
Vol 35 (03) ◽  
pp. 547-600
Author(s):  
Javier Hidalgo ◽  
Pedro C. L. Souza
Keyword(s):  
Null Hypothesis ◽  
Brownian Bridge ◽  
Break Point ◽  
The United States ◽  
Monte Carlo Experiment ◽  
Local Alternatives ◽  
Finite Sample ◽  
Unknown Quantity ◽  
Weak Stationarity ◽  
The Stability

We examine a test for weak stationarity against alternatives that covers both local-stationarity and break point models. A key feature of the test is that its asymptotic distribution is a functional of the standard Brownian bridge sheet in [0,1]2, so that it does not depend on any unknown quantity. The test has nontrivial power against local alternatives converging to the null hypothesis at a T−1/2 rate, where T is the sample size. We also examine an easy-to-implement bootstrap analogue and present the finite sample performance in a Monte Carlo experiment. Finally, we implement the methodology to assess the stability of inflation dynamics in the United States and on a set of neuroscience tremor data.

TESTING INSTABILITY IN A PREDICTIVE REGRESSION MODEL WITH NONSTATIONARY REGRESSORS

2014 ◽  
Vol 31 (5) ◽  
pp. 953-980 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zongwu Cai ◽  
Yunfei Wang ◽  
Yonggang Wang
Keyword(s):  
Asymptotic Distributions ◽  
Monte Carlo Experiment ◽  
Finite Sample ◽  
Test Statistic ◽  
Predictive Regression ◽  
Testing Method ◽  
Type Test ◽  
Coefficient Vector ◽  
Alternative Hypotheses ◽  
The Stability

It is well known that allowing the coefficients to be time-varying in a predictive model with possibly nonstationary regressors can help to deal with instability in predictability associated with linear predictive models. In this paper, an L2-type test statistic is proposed to test the stability of the coefficient vector, and the asymptotic distributions of the proposed test statistic are developed under both null and alternative hypotheses. A Monte Carlo experiment is conducted to evaluate the finite sample performance of the proposed test statistic and an empirical example is examined to demonstrate the practical application of the proposed testing method.

CONSISTENT SPECIFICATION TESTING FOR CONDITIONAL SYMMETRY

1998 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 139-149 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Xu Zheng
Keyword(s):  
Null Hypothesis ◽  
Kernel Method ◽  
Asymmetric Distribution ◽  
Local Alternatives ◽  
Finite Sample ◽  
Conditional Symmetry ◽  
Specification Test ◽  
Test Statistic ◽  
Specification Testing ◽  
Standard Normal

This paper presents a consistent specification test of conditional symmetry using a kernel method. The test statistic is shown to be asymptotically distributed as standard normal under the null hypothesis of conditional symmetry and consistent against any conditional asymmetric distribution. Power against local alternatives is also investigated. A Monte Carlo simulation is provided to evaluate the finite-sample performance of the test.

The great Chinese surprise: the rupture with the United States is real and is happening

2020 ◽  
Vol 96 (2) ◽  
pp. 419-437
Author(s):  
Xiangfeng Yang
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Ample Evidence ◽  
Pendulum Swing ◽  
The Us ◽  
Methodological Problems ◽  
Trade War ◽  
The Stability ◽  
The Individual

Abstract Ample evidence exists that China was caught off guard by the Trump administration's onslaught of punishing acts—the trade war being a prime, but far from the only, example. This article, in addition to contextualizing their earlier optimism about the relations with the United States under President Trump, examines why Chinese leaders and analysts were surprised by the turn of events. It argues that three main factors contributed to the lapse of judgment. First, Chinese officials and analysts grossly misunderstood Donald Trump the individual. By overemphasizing his pragmatism while downplaying his unpredictability, they ended up underprepared for the policies he unleashed. Second, some ingrained Chinese beliefs, manifested in the analogies of the pendulum swing and the ‘bickering couple’, as well as the narrative of the ‘ballast’, lulled officials and scholars into undue optimism about the stability of the broader relationship. Third, analytical and methodological problems as well as political considerations prevented them from fully grasping the strategic shift against China in the US.

scholarly journals The Vicissitudes of Conflict Measurement

2009 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 153-159 ◽  
Author(s):  
William J. Burk ◽  
Jaap Denissen ◽  
Muriel D. Van Doorn ◽  
Susan J.T. Branje ◽  
Brett Laursen
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Close Relationships ◽  
Temporal Stability ◽  
The United States ◽  
Short Intervals ◽  
Time Points ◽  
Best Friends ◽  
Assessment Techniques ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Conflict Frequency

This report examined the stability and reliability of self-reported conflict frequency in relationships with mothers, fathers, and best friends. Participants were drawn from three independent samples in the Netherlands (n = 72, M = 15.6 years), Germany (n = 242, M = 19.7 years), and the United States (n = 250, M = 19.8 years). Participants completed both topic-based surveys and interaction-based diary assessments of conflict frequency. Within samples, comparable levels of internal consistency and temporal stability emerged in each relationship for both assessment techniques. Topic-based and interaction-based assessments of conflict frequency were moderately correlated in each relationship within samples. Daily topic-based assessments with short intervals between time points may provide the most advantageous assessment strategy for obtaining reliable measures of conflict frequency in adolescents’ close relationships.

scholarly journals Le système monétaire européen : Le point de vue européen

2005 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 533-547 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michel Lelart
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
International Monetary System ◽  
European Monetary System ◽  
The United States ◽  
European Monetary ◽  
International Capital Markets ◽  
Monetary System ◽  
American Interest ◽  
International Environment ◽  
The Stability

The evolution of the international monetary System prompted the nine members of the E.E.C. to establish a European Monetary System. The new statutes of the I.M.F. have in fact legalized the practice of flexible exchange rates and sanctioned the dollar's inconvertibility while eliminating the role of gold. Further, the increasing importance of the international capital markets fosters the unlimited expansion of international liquidities. it is in response to this context then that Europe seeks to create a zone of stability and to manage its own international tender in accordance with rules that it has set for itself. The author draws a positive conclusion as the System has operated without major problems so far. Nevertheless, difficulties remain: the international environment has not improved given the abrupt strengthening of the dollar and the increase in American interest rates. In addition, progress with regard to cooperation among the Nine remains slow and political change in France makes any prognosis respecting the future of the European Monetary System difficult. It was anticipated that the System would be Consolidated rapidly. It would in that event contribute more effectively to the stability of the international monetary System. It could, on the other hand, sharpen competition between Europe and the United States, between the Ecu and S.D.Rs. and between the European Monetary Fund and the International Monetary Fund.

Thinking about Jointly Preventing the “Color Revolution” by China and Russia

2021 ◽  
pp. 100
Author(s):  
chensheng wang
Keyword(s):  
International System ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
The United States ◽  
Regional Security ◽  
Healthy Development ◽  
Regional Coordination ◽  
Color Revolution ◽  
Return Method ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Surrounding Areas

The color revolution, which is a “low-cost and high-return” method in regime change, has become the main mean and priority option for America to subvert dissident regimes. In recent years, with the raising strength of containing and suppressing between China with Russia by the United States, America has tried its best to plan “color revolution” not only around China and Russia, but also within the borders of the two countries. China and Russia have become the key target of America in implementing the “color revolution”, however, the situation of the two countries to prevent the “color revolution” is particularly urgent. The “color revolution” not only disrupts the balance of the international system and regional security, but also seriously affects the stability of the country's political power and the healthy development of the economy. In view of this, it is now necessary for China and Russia to work together to prevent “color revolution”. Regarding the new changes, methods changed from non-violent to violent me, more advanced organizational methods, the younger generation of the participants, and changes in manifestations by the “color revolution”, as well as the underlying causes of the “color revolution”, China and Russia should have uindividualized strategies. China and Russia can strengthen cooperation in different areas, such as politics, economy, culture, ideological education, and regional coordination. China and Russia should take advantages of their respective experiences in dealing with “color revolution”, strengthen sharing and communicating experience with other countries in the region, and jointly build a barrier to prevent “color revolution” and protect the security and stability in China and Russia and the surrounding areas.

scholarly journals The Instability of Highly Racially Diverse Residential Neighborhoods in the United States

2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 365-381 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Wright ◽  
Mark Ellis ◽  
Steven R. Holloway ◽  
Gemma Catney
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Predominantly White ◽  
Metropolitan Areas ◽  
Racial Diversity ◽  
Black Population ◽  
The United States ◽  
Racially Diverse ◽  
Absolute Level ◽  
The Stability ◽  
High Diversity

This research concerns the location and stability of highly racially diverse census tracts in the United States. Like some other scholars, the authors define such tracts conservatively, requiring the significant presence of at least three racialized groups. Of the approximately 65,000 tracts in the country, there were 197 highly diverse tracts in 1990 and 998 in 2010. Most were located in large metropolitan areas. Stably integrated highly diverse tracts were the exception rather than the rule. The vast majority of highly diverse tracts transitioned to that state from being predominantly White. Those that transitioned from being highly racially diverse were most likely to transition to being majority Latino. Although the absolute level of metropolitan racial diversity has no effect on the stability of high-diversity tracts, change in both metropolitan-scale racial diversity and population raise the probability of a tract’s transitioning to high diversity. Metropolitan-scale racial diversity did not affect the stability of highly diverse tracts, but it did alter the patterns of succession from them. The authors also found that highly diverse tracts were unstable and less likely to form in metropolitan areas with high percentages of Blacks. Increased metropolitan-level diversity mutes this Black population share effect by reducing the probability of high-diversity tract succession to a Black majority.

Epilogue

2021 ◽  
pp. 1249-1278
Author(s):  
Frederick Cooper
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
World War Ii ◽  
World Order ◽  
Break Point ◽  
The United States ◽  
Political Movements ◽  
Territorial State ◽  
Late Twentieth ◽  
Ancient Times ◽  
The Relationship

“Beyond Empire” asks what studying empires from ancient times to the twentieth century tells us about the world today. Crises in the Middle East and the configuration of Europe, China, Africa, the United States, and elsewhere bear the imprint of trajectories into, through, and out of empire. Instead of assuming the “empire-to-nation-state” narrative, it explores the articulations of empire and nation and makes clear that the relationship was uncertain and contested, even in the mid- and late twentieth century. New empires (USSR, Japan, Nazi Germany) arose even as others collapsed, but World War II constituted a break point for winning as well as defeated empires, creating openings to anti-colonial movements but also enabling Western European powers to imagine a future without needing imperial resources in their rivalry with each other. The independent territorial state was not the only objective of political movements in colonial empires, but in the end national independence was what they could get. The juridical equivalence of post-imperial states has not brought about a stable, equitable, or even predictable world order.

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