Recent increase in prevalence of antibodies to Dobrava-Belgrade virus (DOBV) in yellow-necked mice in northern Italy

2014 ◽  
Vol 143 (10) ◽  
pp. 2241-2244 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. RIZZOLI ◽  
V. TAGLIAPIETRA ◽  
R. ROSÀ ◽  
H. C. HAUFFE ◽  
G. MARINI ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Linear Models ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Northern Italy ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Mean Annual Precipitation ◽  
Sudden Increase ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Changes In Risk ◽  
Positive Effect ◽  
Individual Body

SUMMARYDobrava-Belgrade virus (DOBV) is the most pathogenic hantavirus in Europe with a case-fatality rate of up to 12%. To detect changes in risk for humans, the prevalence of antibodies to DOBV has been monitored in a population of Apodemus flavicollis in the province of Trento (northern Italy) since 2000, and a sudden increase was observed in 2010. In the 13-year period of this study, 2077 animals were live-trapped and mean hantavirus seroprevalence was 2·7% (s.e. = 0·3%), ranging from 0% (in 2000, 2002 and 2003) to 12·5% (in 2012). Climatic (temperature and precipitation) and host (rodent population density, rodent weight and sex, and larval tick burden) variables were analysed using Generalized Linear Models and multi-model inference to select the best model. Climatic changes (mean annual precipitation and maximum temperature) and individual body mass had a positive effect on hantavirus seroprevalence. Other possible drivers affecting the observed pattern need to be studied further.

scholarly journals Ecological preference of the diving bell spider Argyroneta aquatica in a resurgence of the Po plain (Northern Italy) (Araneae: Cybaeidae)

2016 ◽  
Vol 48 (1) ◽  
pp. 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefano Mammola ◽  
Riccardo Cavalcante ◽  
Marco Isaia
Keyword(s):  
Ecological Study ◽  
Aquatic Vegetation ◽  
Linear Models ◽  
Prey Availability ◽  
Ecological Factors ◽  
Northern Italy ◽  
Aquatic Life ◽  
Po Plain ◽  
Ecological Importance ◽  
Positive Effect

The diving bell spider <em>Argyroneta aquatica</em> is the only known spider to conduct a wholly aquatic life. For this reason, it has been the object of an array of studies concerning different aspects of its peculiar biology such as reproductive behavior and sexual dimorphism, physiology, genetic and silk. On the other hand, besides some empirical observations, the autoecology of this spider is widely understudied. We conducted an ecological study in a resurgence located in the Po Plain (Northern Italy, Province of Vercelli) hosting a relatively rich population of <em>Argyroneta</em> <em>aquatica</em>, aiming at identifying the ecological factors driving its presence at the micro-habitat level. By means of a specific sampling methodology, we acquired distributional data of the spiders in the study area and monitored physical-chemical and habitat structure parameters at each plot. We analyzed the data through Bernoulli Generalized Linear Models (GLM). Results pointed out a significant positive effect of the presence of aquatic vegetation in the plot. In addition, the presence of <em>A. aquatica</em> was significantly associated with areas of the resurgence characterized at the same time by high prey availability and low density of predators. Considering the ecological importance and rarity of this species, we update and revise the data on the distribution of <em>A. aquatica</em> in Italy.

scholarly journals Time Series Analysis of MODIS-Derived NDVI for the Hluhluwe-iMfolozi Park, South Africa: Impact of Recent Intense Drought

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nkanyiso Mbatha ◽  
Sifiso Xulu
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Vegetation Index ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Google Earth ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Sudden Increase ◽  
Area Index ◽  
Enhanced Vegetation Index ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation

The variability of meteorological parameters such as temperature and precipitation, and climatic conditions such as intense droughts, are known to impact vegetation health over southern Africa. Thus, understanding large-scale ocean&ndash;atmospheric phenomena like the El Ni&ntilde;o/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole/Dipole Mode Index (DMI) is important as these factors drive the variability of temperature and precipitation. In this study, 16 years (2002&ndash;2017) of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Terra/Aqua 16-day normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), extracted and processed using JavaScript code editor in the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform in order to analyze the response pattern of the oldest proclaimed nature reserve in Africa, the Hluhluwe-iMfolozi Park (HiP), during the study period. The MODIS-enhanced vegetation index and burned area index were also analyzed for this period. The area-averaged Modern Retrospective Analysis for Research Application (MERRA) model maximum temperature and precipitation were also extracted using the JavaScript code editor in the GEE platform. This procedure demonstrated a strong reversal of both the NDVI and Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), leading to signs of a sudden increase of burned areas (strong BAI) during the strongest El Ni&ntilde;o period. Both the Theilsen method and the Mann&ndash;Kendall test showed no significant greening or browning trends over the whole time series, although the annual Mann&ndash;Kendall test, in 2003 and 2014&ndash;2015, indicated significant browning trends due to the most recent strongest El Ni&ntilde;o. Moreover, a multi-linear regression model seems to indicate a significant influence of both ENSO activity and precipitation. Our results indicate that the recent 2014&ndash;2016 drought altered the vegetation condition in the HiP. We conclude that it is vital to exploit freely available GEE resources to develop drought monitoring vegetation systems, and to integrate climate information for analyzing its influence on protected areas, especially in data-poor counties.

scholarly journals Relationship between mean annual temperatures and precipitation sums in Montenegro between 1951-1980 and 1981-2010 periods

2018 ◽  
Vol 98 (1) ◽  
pp. 31-48 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dragan Buric ◽  
Vladan Ducic ◽  
Jovan Mihajlovic
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
Temperature Fluctuations ◽  
Annual Precipitation ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Mean Annual Precipitation ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation

In the second half of the 20th and by the beginning of the 21st century the area of Montenegro was dominated by positive air temperature fluctuations and negative precipitation sums. This paper analyses a 60-year period (1951-2010), with the aim to determine air temperature and precipitation deviation between the two 30-year periods: 1951-1980 and 1981-2010. Calculations of mean, mean maximum and mean minimum temperature have been done, as well as annual values of precipitation sums. All three temperature parameters, particularly maximum values, show that the 1981-2010 period was significantly warmer in relation to previous three decades. Significant changes in mean annual precipitation sums between the two observation periods have been recorded on the coast and, locally, in the western part of the country. The results also showed that there was a significant increase in positive deviations of mean maximum temperature in most parts of Montenegro during the 1981-2010 period in relation to the 1951-1980 period, while changes of this type in other observation parameters were mostly minor.

scholarly journals DO LATITUDE, ELEVATION, TEMPERATURE, AND PRECIPITATION INFLUENCE BODY AND CLUTCH SIZES OF FEMALE COMMON FIVE-LINED SKINKS, PLESTIODON FASCIATUS (LINNAEUS, 1758)?

2020 ◽  
pp. 32-41
Author(s):  
Jake S. Morrissey ◽  
Brandon Barr ◽  
Andrew E. Austin ◽  
Lauren R. Babcock ◽  
Robert Powell
Keyword(s):  
Body Size ◽  
Mean Annual Precipitation ◽  
Eastern North America ◽  
Mean Annual Temperature ◽  
Negatively Associated ◽  
The North ◽  
Female Body Size ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Plestiodon Fasciatus ◽  
Positive Effect

Common Five-lined Skinks (Plestiodon fasciatus) have an extensive distribution that includes much of eastern North America. We examined 490 female specimens (274 with putative clutch sizes) from throughout the range to see if latitude, elevation, mean annual temperature, and/or mean annual precipitation affected body or clutch sizes. We predicted that larger females would produce larger clutches, latitude and elevation would negatively affect both body and clutch sizes, and that temperature and precipitation would exert a positive effect. Our results did not consistently support those predictions. Body size was positively associated with latitude, negatively associated with temperature, and not associated with elevation or precipitation. Clutch size was not related to female body size, but in most instances was positively associated with temperature and precipitation but negatively associated with elevation and latitude. Effectively K-selected in the North and r-selected in the South, body and clutch sizes in this species appear to be responding to different select.

scholarly journals Projected Changes in Climate Extremes Using CMIP6 Simulations Over SREX Regions

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 481-497
Author(s):  
Mansour Almazroui ◽  
Fahad Saeed ◽  
Sajjad Saeed ◽  
Muhammad Ismail ◽  
Muhammad Azhar Ehsan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Variability ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
First Century ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Annual Maximum ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Projected Change ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
The Tropics

AbstractThis paper presents projected changes in extreme temperature and precipitation events by using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) data for mid-century (2036–2065) and end-century (2070–2099) periods with respect to the reference period (1985–2014). Four indices namely, Annual maximum of maximum temperature (TXx), Extreme heat wave days frequency (HWFI), Annual maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation (RX5day), and Consecutive Dry Days (CDD) were investigated under four socioeconomic scenarios (SSP1-2.6; SSP2-4.5; SSP3-7.0; SSP5-8.5) over the entire globe and its 26 Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX) regions. The projections show an increase in intensity and frequency of hot temperature and precipitation extremes over land. The intensity of the hottest days (as measured by TXx) is projected to increase more in extratropical regions than in the tropics, while the frequency of extremely hot days (as measured by HWFI) is projected to increase more in the tropics. Drought frequency (as measured by CDD) is projected to increase more over Brazil, the Mediterranean, South Africa, and Australia. Meanwhile, the Asian monsoon regions (i.e., South Asia, East Asia, and Southeast Asia) become more prone to extreme flash flooding events later in the twenty-first century as shown by the higher RX5day index projections. The projected changes in extremes reveal large spatial variability within each SREX region. The spatial variability of the studied extreme events increases with increasing greenhouse gas concentration (GHG) and is higher at the end of the twenty-first century. The projected change in the extremes and the pattern of their spatial variability is minimum under the low-emission scenario SSP1-2.6. Our results indicate that an increased concentration of GHG leads to substantial increases in the extremes and their intensities. Hence, limiting CO2 emissions could substantially limit the risks associated with increases in extreme events in the twenty-first century.

scholarly journals A hydrological modelling-based approach for vulnerable area identification under changing climate scenarios

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sonam S. Dash ◽  
Dipaka R. Sena ◽  
Uday Mandal ◽  
Anil Kumar ◽  
Gopal Kumar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Fold Increase ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Vulnerable Area ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Monthly Streamflow ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Streamflow Data ◽  
Critical Zones

Abstract The hydrologic behaviour of the Brahmani River basin (BRB) (39,633.90 km2), India was assessed for the base period (1970–1999) and future climate scenarios (2050) using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Monthly streamflow data of 2000–2009 and 2010–2012 was used for calibration and validation, respectively, and performed satisfactorily with Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (ENS) of 0.52–0.55. The projected future climatic outcomes of the HadGEM2-ES model indicated that minimum temperature, maximum temperature, and precipitation may increase by 1.11–3.72 °C, 0.27–2.89 °C, and 16–263 mm, respectively, by 2050. The mean annual streamflow over the basin may increase by 20.86, 11.29, 4.45, and 37.94% under RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5, respectively, whereas the sediment yield is likely to increase by 23.34, 10.53, 2.45, and 27.62% under RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5, respectively, signifying RCP 8.5 to be the most adverse scenario for the BRB. Moreover, a ten-fold increase in environmental flow (defined as Q90) by the mid-century period is expected under the RCP 8.5 scenario. The vulnerable area assessment revealed that the increase in moderate and high erosion-prone regions will be more prevalent in the mid-century. The methodology developed herein could be successfully implemented for identification and prioritization of critical zones in worldwide river basins.

scholarly journals Joint Occurrence of Daily Temperature and Precipitation Extreme Events over Canada

2014 ◽  
Vol 53 (9) ◽  
pp. 2148-2162 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bárbara Tencer ◽  
Andrew Weaver ◽  
Francis Zwiers
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Minimum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Joint Occurrence

AbstractThe occurrence of individual extremes such as temperature and precipitation extremes can have a great impact on the environment. Agriculture, energy demands, and human health, among other activities, can be affected by extremely high or low temperatures and by extremely dry or wet conditions. The simultaneous or proximate occurrence of both types of extremes could lead to even more profound consequences, however. For example, a dry period can have more negative consequences on agriculture if it is concomitant with or followed by a period of extremely high temperatures. This study analyzes the joint occurrence of very wet conditions and high/low temperature events at stations in Canada. More than one-half of the stations showed a significant positive relationship at the daily time scale between warm nights (daily minimum temperature greater than the 90th percentile) or warm days (daily maximum temperature above the 90th percentile) and heavy-precipitation events (daily precipitation exceeding the 75th percentile), with the greater frequencies found for the east and southwest coasts during autumn and winter. Cold days (daily maximum temperature below the 10th percentile) occur together with intense precipitation more frequently during spring and summer. Simulations by regional climate models show good agreement with observations in the seasonal and spatial variability of the joint distribution, especially when an ensemble of simulations was used.

Ecological Niche Modeling Predicting the Potential Distribution of African Horse Sickness Virus from 2020 - 2060

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ayalew Assefa ◽  
Abebe Tibebu ◽  
Amare Bihon ◽  
Alemu Dagnachew ◽  
Yimer Muktar
Keyword(s):  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Ecological Niche ◽  
Annual Precipitation ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Mean Annual Precipitation ◽  
African Horse Sickness ◽  
Diurnal Range ◽  
Annual Minimum Temperature ◽  
Precipitation Seasonality ◽  
Vector Borne

Abstract African horse sickness is a vector-borne, non-contagious and highly infectious disease of equines caused by African Horse Sickness viruses (AHSv) that mainly affect horses. The occurrence of the disease causes huge economic impacts because of its fatality rate is high, trade ban and disease control costs. In planning of vectors and vector borne diseases, the application of Ecological niche models (ENM) used an enormous contribution in exactly delineating the suitable habitats of the vector. We developed an ENM with the objective of delineating the global suitability of AHSv outbreaks retrospective based on data records from 2005–2019. The model was developed in R software program using Biomod2 package with an Ensemble modeling technique. Predictive environmental variables like mean diurnal range, mean precipitation of driest month(mm), precipitation seasonality (cv), mean annual maximum temperature (oc), mean annual minimum temperature (oc) mean precipitation of warmest quarter(mm), mean precipitation of coldest quarter (mm) mean annual precipitation (mm), solar radiation (kj /day), elevation/altitude (m), wind speed (m/s) were used to develop the model. From these variables, solar radiation, mean maximum temperature, average annual precipitation, altitude and precipitation seasonality contributed 36.83%, 17.1%, 14.34%, 7.61%, and 6.4%, respectively. The model depicted the sub-Sahara African continent as the most suitable area for the virus. Mainly Senegal, Burkina Faso, Niger, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Sudan, Somalia, South Africa, Zimbabwe, Madagascar and Malawi are African countries identified as highly suitable countries for the virus. Besides, OIE-listed disease-free countries like India, Australia, Brazil, Paraguay and Bolivia have been found suitable for the virusThis model can be used as an epidemiological tool in planning control and surveillance of diseases nationally or internationally.

scholarly journals Impact of Climate Change on Water Availability and Food Security of Nepal

2012 ◽  
pp. 59-63
Author(s):  
Roshan Kumar Mehta ◽  
Shree Chandra Shah
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Groundwater Table ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Aquatic Life ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Average Maximum ◽  
Water Scarce

The increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere is widely believed to be causing climate change. It affects agriculture, forestry, human health, biodiversity, and snow cover and aquatic life. Changes in climatic factors like temperature, solar radiation and precipitation have potential to influence agrobiodiversity and its production. An average of 0.04°C/ year and 0.82 mm/year rise in annual average maximum temperature and precipitation respectively from 1975 to 2006 has been recorded in Nepal. Frequent droughts, rise in temperature, shortening of the monsoon season with high intensity rainfall, severe floods, landslides and mixed effects on agricultural biodiversity have been experienced in Nepal due to climatic changes. A survey done in the Chitwan District reveals that lowering of the groundwater table decreases production and that farmers are attracted to grow less water consuming crops during water scarce season. The groundwater table in the study area has lowered nearly one meter from that of 15 years ago as experienced by the farmers. Traditional varieties of rice have been replaced in the last 10 years by modern varieties, and by agricultural crops which demand more water for cultivation. The application of groundwater for irrigation has increased the cost of production and caused severe negative impacts on marginal crop production and agro-biodiversity. It is timely that suitable adaptive measures are identified in order to make Nepalese agriculture more resistant to the adverse impacts of climate change, especially those caused by erratic weather patterns such as the ones experienced recently.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/hn.v11i1.7206 Hydro Nepal Special Issue: Conference Proceedings 2012 pp.59-63

scholarly journals Homogeneity Test and Correction of Daily Temperature and Precipitation Data (1978–2015) in North China

2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-17 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lingling Shen ◽  
Li Lu ◽  
Tianjie Hu ◽  
Runsheng Lin ◽  
Ji Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
North China ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Homogeneity Test ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Average Temperature ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Annual Average Temperature

Homogeneity of climate data is the basis for quantitative assessment of climate change. By using the MASH method, this work examined and corrected the homogeneity of the daily data including average, minimum, and maximum temperature and precipitation during 1978–2015 from 404/397 national meteorological stations in North China. Based on the meteorological station metadata, the results are analyzed and the differences before and after homogenization are compared. The results show that breakpoints are present pervasively in these temperature data. Most of them appeared after 2000. The stations with a host of breakpoints are mainly located in Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei Province, where meteorological stations are densely distributed. The numbers of breakpoints in the daily precipitation series in North China during 1978–2015 also culminated in 2000. The reason for these breakpoints, called inhomogeneity, may be the large-scale replacement of meteorological instruments after 2000. After correction by the MASH method, the annual average temperature and minimum temperature decrease by 0.04°C and 0.06°C, respectively, while the maximum temperature increases by 0.01°C. The annual precipitation declines by 0.96 mm. The overall trends of temperature change before and after the correction are largely consistent, while the homogeneity of individual stations is significantly improved. Besides, due to the correction, the majority series of the precipitation are reduced and the correction amplitude is relatively large. During 1978–2015, the temperature in North China shows a rise trend, while the precipitation tends to decrease.

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