scholarly journals The effects of ambient temperature and heatwaves on dailyCampylobactercases in Adelaide, Australia, 1990–2012

2017 ◽  
Vol 145 (12) ◽  
pp. 2603-2610 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. MILAZZO ◽  
L. C. GILES ◽  
Y. ZHANG ◽  
A. P. KOEHLER ◽  
J. E. HILLER ◽  
...  

SUMMARYCampylobacterspp. is a commonly reported food-borne disease with major consequences for morbidity. In conjunction with predicted increases in temperature, proliferation in the survival of microorganisms in hotter environments is expected. This is likely to lead, in turn, to an increase in contamination of food and water and a rise in numbers of cases of infectious gastroenteritis. This study assessed the relationship ofCampylobacterspp. with temperature and heatwaves, in Adelaide, South Australia.We estimated the effect of (i) maximum temperature and (ii) heatwaves on dailyCampylobactercases during the warm seasons (1 October to 31 March) from 1990 to 2012 using Poisson regression models.There was no evidence of a substantive effect of maximum temperature per 1 °C rise (incidence rate ratio (IRR) 0·995, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0·993–0·997) nor heatwaves (IRR 0·906, 95% CI 0·800–1·026) onCampylobactercases. In relation to heatwave intensity, which is the daily maximum temperature during a heatwave, notifications decreased by 19% within a temperature range of 39–40·9 °C (IRR 0·811, 95% CI 0·692–0·952). We found little evidence of an increase in risk and lack of association betweenCampylobactercases and temperature or heatwaves in the warm seasons. Heatwave intensity may play a role in that notifications decreased with higher temperatures. Further examination of the role of behavioural and environmental factors in an effort to reduce the risk of increasedCampylobactercases is warranted.

2009 ◽  
Vol 15 (1-2) ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Lakatos ◽  
S. Musacchi ◽  
T. Szabó ◽  
G. Kocsisné Molnár ◽  
Z. Szabó ◽  
...  

The trees observed are grown at Ujfehert6, Eastern Hungary in a gene bank with 555 pear cultivars. Each of the cultivars was monitored for its dates of: the beginning of bloom, main bloom and the end of bloom and ripe phenophasis separately between I 984 and 2002. We analyzed the statistical features, frequency, distribution of these phenophasis and its' correlation the meteorological variables bet ween the interval. During this period the meteorological database recorded the following variables: daily mean temperature (°C), daily maximum temperature (0C), daily mini m um temperature (0C), daily precipitation (mm), daily hours of bright sunshine, daily means or the differences between the day-time and night-time temperatures (0C). For the analysis of data the cultivars have been grouped according to dates of maturity, blooming period as well as types of the seasons. Groups of maturity dates: summer ripe, autumnal ripening, winter ripe cultivars. Groups of blooming dates: early blooming, intermediate blooming, late blooming cultivars. At all the separated groups we analyzed the relationship between phenophasis and meteorological variables. During the 18 years of observation , the early blooming cultivars started blooming on 10-21 April, those of intermediate bloom date started flowering bet ween 20 April and 3 May, whereas the late blooming group started on 2- 10 May. Among the meteorological variables of the former autumn and winter periods, the winter maxima were the most active factor influencing the start dates of bloom in the subsequent spring. For the research of fruit growing-weather relationships we used simple, well known statistical methods, correlation and regression analysis. We used the SPSS 1 1.0 software for the linear regression fitting and for calculation of dispersions as well. The 1ables made by Excel programme.


2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. e000341 ◽  
Author(s):  
Genki Arikawa ◽  
Yoshinori Fujii ◽  
Maiku Abe ◽  
Ngan Thi Mai ◽  
Shuya Mitoma ◽  
...  

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks engender a severe economic impact on the poultry industry and public health. Migratory waterfowl are considered the natural hosts of HPAI virus, and HPAI viruses are known to be transmitted over long distances during seasonal bird migration. Bird migration is greatly affected by the weather. Many studies have shown the relationship between either autumn or spring bird migration and climate. However, few studies have shown the relationship between annual bird migration and annual weather. This study aimed to establish a model for the number of migratory waterfowl involved in HPAI virus transmission based on meteorological data. From 136 species of waterfowl that were observed at Futatsudate in Miyazaki, Japan, from 2008 to 2016, we selected potential high-risk species that could introduce the HPAI virus into Miyazaki and defined them as ‘risky birds’. We also performed cluster analysis to select meteorological factors. We then analysed the meteorological data and the total number of risky birds using a generalised linear mixed model. We selected 10 species as risky birds: Mallard (Anas platyrhynchos), Northern pintail (Anas acuta), Eurasian wigeon (Anas penelope), Eurasian teal (Anas crecca), Common pochard (Aythya ferina), Eurasian coot (Fulica atra), Northern shoveler (Anas clypeata), Common shelduck (Tadorna tadorna), Tufted duck (Aythya fuligula) and Herring gull (Larus argentatus). We succeeded in clustering 35 meteorological factors into four clusters and identified three meteorological factors associated with their migration: (1) the average daily maximum temperature; (2) the mean value of global solar radiation and (3) the maximum daily precipitation. We thus demonstrated the relationship between the number of risky birds and meteorological data. The dynamics of migratory waterfowl was relevant to the risk of an HPAI outbreak, and our data could contribute to cost and time savings in strengthening preventive measures against epidemics.


1993 ◽  
Vol 41 (2) ◽  
pp. 123 ◽  
Author(s):  
PJ Debarro ◽  
DA Maelzer

A field experiment in a perennial grass pasture showed that the survival of Rhopalosiphum padi (L.) (Hemiptera: Aphididae) was reduced when aphids were exposed to air temperatures of at least 36-degrees-C (32-degrees-C at the base of the sward). The longevity, rate of reproduction and fecundity of individuals also declined as the exposure temperature and duration of exposure increased. The results of the field experiment were later corroborated by sampling an aphid population every 4-6 days over summer and regressing aphid numbers on daily maximum temperature and duration of exposure to temperature. A model is proposed to estimate the numbers of aphids that survive in refuge areas over summer in relation to temperature-induced mortality.


2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 23-30
Author(s):  
Ji Yoon Kang ◽  
Bong-Chur Park ◽  
Jongbae Heo ◽  
Keewook Kim

Damage caused by heatwaves has been increasing recently worldwide. As climate change led by global warming progresses, heatwaves are projected to cause the most damage. Thus, it is very important to issue an appropriate heatwave advisory so that one can be prepared for it. Considering that the degree of heat experienced by people differs depending on the difference in humidity between regions with similar summer temperatures, it is necessary to evaluate whether the issuance of a heatwave warning using only the daily maximum temperature is appropriate. This study intends to examine the applicability of the heat index considering both temperature and humidity for effective heatwave response. First, the agreement between the occurrences of heatwaves and heat-related illness, where the occurrence is decided by the daily maximum temperature and daily maximum heat index, was evaluated. The results show that when the daily maximum heat index was applied as a criterion for issuing a heatwave warning, the coincidence with the occurrence of heat-related illness was more than two times higher than when the daily maximum temperature was applied. Next, on evaluating the prediction accuracy of the heat index according to the prediction-related leading time, the accuracy of the heat index was noted to be higher than that of the temperature for all the leading times; the highest accuracy was shown at the leading time of 10 hours (NSE = 0.7196; CORR = 0.8698). Based on the results of this study, it is necessary to consider using a heat index that contains both temperature and humidity elements to issue a heatwave warning. Furthermore, to establish regional standards for heatwave warnings, the relationship between heatwave characteristics and meteorological factors should be first analyzed using long-term data from various observation points.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Annika Stechemesser ◽  
Leonie Wenz ◽  
Maximilian Kotz ◽  
Anders Levermann

<p>Temperature has been identified as a potential cause for human conflict. Conflict poses a fundamental obstacle to Sustainable Development Goal 16 which acknowledges the importance of building peace, justice and strong institutions for people around the world. Today, conflict is no longer limited to the physical space. The increasing digitalization of all areas of everyday life reinforces the impact of cyber racism, cyber discrimination and online hate. It disproportionally affects groups with an already increased risk of marginalization such as women, lgbtq+ youth or people of color, causing affected persons to feel unsafe in digital spaces and limiting their access to online services. Twitter is one of the biggest social media platforms with more than 300 million active users around the world. We provide evidence that the amount of racist content posted to Twitter is non-linearly influenced by temperature. Exploiting the linguistic plurality of Europe, we investigate the relationship between daily maximum temperature and racist or xenophobic content online using a fixed-effects panel-regression approach for countries spanning multiple European climatic zones. Racist tweets are lowest between daily temperatures of 8°C to 17°C whereas ambient temperatures warmer or colder are associated with steep, non-linear increases. Within the next 30 years, temperatures are projected to shift with new heat extremes being reached. To quantify the potential impact on cyber hate, the number of days outside this range, weighted by the identified temperature-racist-tweet response curve is projected to increase across Europe. Results suggest, that future warming and more extreme temperatures could aggravate xenophobia and racism online, further hindering the achievement of SDG 16 and posing a challenge for future human well-being.  </p>


2010 ◽  
Vol 2010 ◽  
pp. 1-13 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mai Khiem ◽  
Ryozo Ooka ◽  
Hong Huang ◽  
Hiroshi Hayami ◽  
Hiroshi Yoshikado ◽  
...  

An increasing trend in ground-level ozone () concentrations has recently been recognized in Japan, although concentrations of ozone precursors, nitrogen oxides (NOx), volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and nonmethane hydrocarbons (NMHCs) have decreased. In this paper, the relationship between meteorological factors (temperature and wind speed) and ground-level ozone concentrations in the summer over the central Kanto area of Japan was examined using both statistical analyses and numerical models. The Fifth-Generation NCAR/Penn State Mesoscale Model (MM5) and the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model were employed in this study. It was found that there is a close relationship between meteorological conditions and ground-level ozone concentrations over the central Kanto area. In summer, up to 84% of the long-term variation in peak ozone concentrations may be accounted for by changes in the seasonally averaged daily maximum temperature and seasonally averaged wind speed, while about 70% of the recent short-term variation in peak ozone depends on the daily maximum temperature and the daily averaged wind speed. The results of numerical simulations also indicate that urban heat island (UHI) phenomena can play an important role in the formation of high ozone concentrations in this area.


2017 ◽  
Vol 26 (2) ◽  
pp. 517-523 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmad Makmom Abdullah ◽  
Marzuki Ismail ◽  
Fong Si Yuen ◽  
Samsuri Abdullah ◽  
Rasheida Elhadi

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (6) ◽  
pp. 76-91
Author(s):  
E. D. Solozhentsev

The scientific problem of economics “Managing the quality of human life” is formulated on the basis of artificial intelligence, algebra of logic and logical-probabilistic calculus. Managing the quality of human life is represented by managing the processes of his treatment, training and decision making. Events in these processes and the corresponding logical variables relate to the behavior of a person, other persons and infrastructure. The processes of the quality of human life are modeled, analyzed and managed with the participation of the person himself. Scenarios and structural, logical and probabilistic models of managing the quality of human life are given. Special software for quality management is described. The relationship of human quality of life and the digital economy is examined. We consider the role of public opinion in the management of the “bottom” based on the synthesis of many studies on the management of the economics and the state. The bottom management is also feedback from the top management.


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