scholarly journals Analysis of factors affecting the prognosis of COVID-19 patients and viral shedding duration

2020 ◽  
Vol 148 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jing Han ◽  
Li-xia Shi ◽  
Yi Xie ◽  
Yong-jin Zhang ◽  
Shu-ping Huang ◽  
...  

Abstract The clinical characteristics of patients with COVID-19 were analysed to determine the factors influencing the prognosis and virus shedding time to facilitate early detection of disease progression. Logistic regression analysis was used to explore the relationships among prognosis, clinical characteristics and laboratory indexes. The predictive value of this model was assessed with receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, calibration and internal validation. The viral shedding duration was calculated using the Kaplan–Meier method, and the prognostic factors were analysed by univariate log-rank analysis and the Cox proportional hazards model. A retrospective study was carried out with patients with COVID-19 in Tianjin, China. A total of 185 patients were included, 27 (14.59%) of whom were severely ill at the time of discharge and three (1.6%) of whom died. Our findings demonstrate that patients with an advanced age, diabetes, a low PaO2/FiO2 value and delayed treatment should be carefully monitored for disease progression to reduce the incidence of severe disease. Hypoproteinaemia and the fever duration warrant special attention. Timely interventions in symptomatic patients and a time from symptom onset to treatment <4 days can shorten the duration of viral shedding.

2020 ◽  
Vol 132 (4) ◽  
pp. 998-1005 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haihui Jiang ◽  
Yong Cui ◽  
Xiang Liu ◽  
Xiaohui Ren ◽  
Mingxiao Li ◽  
...  

OBJECTIVEThe aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between extent of resection (EOR) and survival in terms of clinical, molecular, and radiological factors in high-grade astrocytoma (HGA).METHODSClinical and radiological data from 585 cases of molecularly defined HGA were reviewed. In each case, the EOR was evaluated twice: once according to contrast-enhanced T1-weighted images (CE-T1WI) and once according to fluid attenuated inversion recovery (FLAIR) images. The ratio of the volume of the region of abnormality in CE-T1WI to that in FLAIR images (VFLAIR/VCE-T1WI) was calculated and a receiver operating characteristic curve was used to determine the optimal cutoff value for that ratio. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify the prognostic value of each factor.RESULTSBoth the EOR evaluated from CE-T1WI and the EOR evaluated from FLAIR could divide the whole cohort into 4 subgroups with different survival outcomes (p < 0.001). Cases were stratified into 2 subtypes based on VFLAIR/VCE-T1WIwith a cutoff of 10: a proliferation-dominant subtype and a diffusion-dominant subtype. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed a significant survival advantage for the proliferation-dominant subtype (p < 0.0001). The prognostic implication has been further confirmed in the Cox proportional hazards model (HR 1.105, 95% CI 1.078–1.134, p < 0.0001). The survival of patients with proliferation-dominant HGA was significantly prolonged in association with extensive resection of the FLAIR abnormality region beyond contrast-enhancing tumor (p = 0.03), while no survival benefit was observed in association with the extensive resection in the diffusion-dominant subtype (p=0.86).CONCLUSIONSVFLAIR/VCE-T1WIis an important classifier that could divide the HGA into 2 subtypes with distinct invasive features. Patients with proliferation-dominant HGA can benefit from extensive resection of the FLAIR abnormality region, which provides the theoretical basis for a personalized resection strategy.


2019 ◽  
Vol 104 (1) ◽  
pp. 81-86 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sung Uk Baek ◽  
Ahnul Ha ◽  
Dai Woo Kim ◽  
Jin Wook Jeoung ◽  
Ki Ho Park ◽  
...  

Background/AimsTo investigate the risk factors for disease progression of normal-tension glaucoma (NTG) with pretreatment intraocular pressure (IOP) in the low-teens.MethodsOne-hundred and two (102) eyes of 102 patients with NTG with pretreatment IOP≤12 mm Hg who had been followed up for more than 60 months were retrospectively enrolled. Patients were divided into progressor and non-progressor groups according to visual field (VF) progression as correlated with change of optic disc or retinal nerve fibre layer defect. Baseline demographic and clinical characteristics including diurnal IOP and 24 hours blood pressure (BP) were compared between the two groups. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to identify the risk factors for disease progression.ResultsThirty-six patients (35.3%) were classified as progressors and 66 (64.7%) as non-progressors. Between the two groups, no significant differences were found in the follow-up periods (8.7±3.4 vs 7.7±3.2 years; p=0.138), baseline VF mean deviation (−4.50±5.65 vs −3.56±4.30 dB; p=0.348) or pretreatment IOP (11.34±1.21 vs 11.17±1.06 mm Hg; p=0.121). The multivariate Cox proportional hazards model indicated that greater diurnal IOP at baseline (HR=1.609; p=0.004), greater fluctuation of diastolic BP (DBP; HR=1.058; p=0.002) and presence of optic disc haemorrhage during follow-up (DH; HR=3.664; p=0.001) were risk factors for glaucoma progression.ConclusionIn the low-teens NTG eyes, 35.3% showed glaucoma progression during the average 8.7 years of follow-up. Fluctuation of DBP and diurnal IOP as well as DH were significantly associated with greater probability of disease progression.


2021 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Korinan Fanta ◽  
Fekadu Bekele Daba ◽  
Elsah Tegene Asefa ◽  
Tsegaye Melaku ◽  
Legese Chelkeba ◽  
...  

Background: Despite the fact that the burden, risk factors, and clinical characteristics of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) have been studied widely in developed countries, limited data are available from sub-Saharan Africa. Therefore, this study aimed at evaluating the clinical characteristics, treatment, and 30-day mortality of patients with ACS admitted to tertiary hospitals in Ethiopia.Methods: A total of 181 ACS patients admitted to tertiary care hospitals in Ethiopia were enrolled from March 15 to November 15, 2018. The clinical characteristics, management, and 30-day mortality were evaluated by ACS subtype. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to determine the predictors of 30-day all-cause mortality. A p-value &lt; 0.05 was considered statistically significant.Results: The majority (61%) of ACS patients were admitted with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). The mean age was 56 years, with male predominance (62.4%). More than two-thirds (67.4%) of patients presented to hospital after 12 h of symptom onset. Dyslipidemia (48%) and hypertension (44%) were the most common risk factors identified. In-hospital dual antiplatelet and statin use was high (&gt;90%), followed by beta-blockers (81%) and angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEIs; 72%). Late reperfusion with percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) was done for only 13 (7.2%), and none of the patients received early reperfusion therapy. The 30-day all-cause mortality rate was 25.4%. On multivariate Cox proportional hazards model analysis, older age [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.03, 95% CI = 1.003–1.057], systolic blood pressure (HR = 0.99, 95% CI = 0.975–1.000), serum creatinine (HR = 1.32, 95% CI = 1.056–1.643), Killip class &gt; II (HR = 4.62, 95% CI = 2.502–8.523), ejection fraction &lt;40% (HR = 2.75, 95% CI = 1.463–5.162), and STEMI (HR = 2.72, 95% CI = 1.006–4.261) were independent predictors of 30-day mortality.Conclusions: The 30-day all-cause mortality rate was unacceptably high, which implies an urgent need to establish a nationwide program to reduce pre-hospital delay, promoting the use of guideline-directed medications, and increasing access to reperfusion therapy.


2021 ◽  
Vol 11 ◽  
Author(s):  
He Xu ◽  
Jie Hua ◽  
Qingcai Meng ◽  
Xiaohong Wang ◽  
Jin Xu ◽  
...  

PurposeHypodensity of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) during contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CECT) examination is common, but a minority of PDAC patients exhibit hyperdense images. The present study examined the clinical characteristics and protein landscape of PDAC with hyperdensity.Materials and MethodsA total of 844 pathologically confirmed PDAC patients who underwent CECT before surgery were included. During the parenchymal phase of CECT, patients were assigned to the hyperdense or hypodense group based on CT values. Clinical and CT characteristics for predicting relapse-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) were analyzed using the Kaplan–Meier method and Cox proportional hazards model. The expression of the tumor angiogenesis marker CD31 and stroma-related protein CTHRC1 were analyzed using immunohistochemistry (IHC) assay to evaluate differences between the two groups. Proteomics was performed to compare the possible mechanisms underlying the differential enhancement on CT scans.ResultsBased on CECT, 43 and 801 PDAC patients had hyperdense and hypodense lesions, respectively. All 43 patients presented a hyperdense lesion in the parenchymal phase. The mean CECT values of the hyperdense group were higher than the hypodense group (102.5 ± 17.4 and 53.7 ± 18.7, respectively, P&lt; 0.001). The hyperdense group had a better prognosis than the hypodense group (median RFS, 19.97 vs. 12.34 months, P = 0.0176; median OS, 33.6 vs. 20.3 months, P = 0.047). Multivariate analysis showed that age, higher CA19-9 levels (&gt; 300 U/ml), tumor stage, tumor differentiation, tumor CT density, and adjuvant chemotherapy were significant independent prognostic factors for OS. CD31 immunohistochemical staining showed that the hyperdense PDACs had a higher microvessel density than the hypodense group (P&lt; 0.001). CTHRC1 expression was higher in the hypodense group (P = 0.019). Sixty-eight differentially expressed proteins were found using the tandem mass tag labeling-based quantification of the proteomes of PDAC tissue samples, and 7 proteins (POFUT1, PKP2, P0DOX4, ITPR1, HBG2, IGLC3, SAA2) were related to angiogenesis.ConclusionPatients who presented with a hyperdense mass on CECT had a higher microvessel density and better prognosis. Anti-angiogenic therapy may be suitable for these patients.


2018 ◽  
Vol 90 (5) ◽  
pp. 555-561 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcos C B Oliveira ◽  
Helen Ling ◽  
Andrew J Lees ◽  
Janice L Holton ◽  
Eduardo De Pablo-Fernandez ◽  
...  

BackgroundDevelopment of autonomic failure is associated with more rapid disease course and shorter survival in patients with Parkinson’s disease and multiple system atrophy. However, autonomic symptoms have not been specifically assessed as a prognostic factor in progressive supranuclear palsy (PSP). We evaluated whether development of autonomic symptoms is associated with disease progression and survival in PSP.MethodsA retrospective review of clinical data from consecutive patients with autopsy-confirmed PSP from the Queen Square Brain Bank between January 2012 and November 2016 was performed. Time from disease onset to four autonomic symptoms (constipation, urinary symptoms, erectile dysfunction and orthostatic hypotension) were noted. Time from diagnosis to five disease milestones and survival were calculated to assess disease progression, and their risk was estimated through a Cox proportional hazards model.ResultsA total of 103 PSP patients were included. Urinary symptoms and constipation were present in 81% and 71% of cases, respectively. Early development of constipation and urinary symptoms were associated with higher risk of reaching the first disease milestone (respectively, HR: 0.88; 95% CI 0.83 to 0.92; p<0.001; and HR: 0.80; 95% CI 0.75 to 0.86; p<0.001) and with a shorter survival in these patients (respectively, HR: 0.73; 95% CI 0.64 to 0.84; p<0.001; and HR: 0.88; 95% CI 0.80 to 0.96; p=0.004). On multivariate analysis, Richardson syndrome phenotype was the other variable independently associated with shorter survival.ConclusionsEarlier urinary symptoms and constipation are associated with a more rapid disease progression and reduced survival in patients with PSP.


Cancers ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (11) ◽  
pp. 3347
Author(s):  
Ji Hyun Kim ◽  
Seong Hee Kang ◽  
Minjong Lee ◽  
Gi Soo Youn ◽  
Tae Suk Kim ◽  
...  

Background and Aim: Previous studies reported that serum myostatin is associated with sarcopenia. We aimed to elucidate the association between serum myostatin levels and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development in patients with alcoholic liver cirrhosis (ALC). Methods: This retrospective, multicenter study assessed 1077 Asian ALC patients enrolled from 2007 to 2017. The primary endpoint was the development of HCC within 5 years. Cox proportional hazards model analyses were used to assess the association of serum myostatin levels and HCC development. The time-dependent areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of serum myostatin for 5-year HCC development were calculated. Serum myostatin levels were measured using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay with samples collected on the index date. Results: During a median follow-up of 2.5 years, 5-year cumulative HCC incidence rates were 6.7% in the total population. The median level of serum myostatin was 3.3 ng/mL (interquartile, 2.1–5.2 ng/mL). The AUROC of serum myostatin for 5-year HCC development was 0.78 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.76–0.81). In Cox proportional hazards model analyses, age, gender, platelet counts, and serum myostatin levels were independent risk factors for HCC development (adjusted hazard ratios [HRs] of age, male gender, platelet counts, and serum myostatin: 1.03, 2.79, 0.996, 1.18, respectively; all p < 0.05). Patients with high myostatin levels had a significantly higher risk of 5-year HCC development than those with low myostatin levels (HR 7.53, p < 0.001). Conclusion: Higher serum myostatin levels were significantly associated with a higher risk of developing HCC in ALC patients, which could identify high-risk patients who need stringent surveillance.


Stroke ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 47 (suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shinya Tomari ◽  
Tomotaka Tanaka ◽  
Takayuki Matsuki ◽  
Kazuki Fukuma ◽  
Hiroshi Yamagami ◽  
...  

Background: Both early seizure (ES) and late seizure (LS) are common complications after stroke. However, clinical characteristics, treatments and recurrences after ES/LS remain unclarified. Methods: We enrolled the patients with first-ever post-stroke seizures between July 2010 and June 2014, and followed up until June 2015. Seizures were classified into ES (within one week after stroke) and LS (the second week or later). We compared baseline clinical characteristics, status epilepticus, surgery (removal of hematoma, ventricular drainage), neurological deterioration by index stroke (defined as an increase of the NIHSS score by one or more between the baseline and at hospital discharge), and duration of antiepileptic drug (AED) therapy between two groups. We also investigated factors (patients’ background and treatment of seizure) that determined the seizure recurrence after discharge. Results: Clinical data were collected for 153 patients (82 men; age, 73.7±12.3, 73 intracerebral hemorrhage and 80 ischemic stroke). ES occurred in 62 and LS in 91 patients. Patients with LS more commonly received surgery (ES 3% vs. LS 17%, p=0.008) and more commonly had neurological deterioration (ES 71% vs. LS 87%, p=0.02) than those with ES. LS received AED therapy more frequently both during hospitalization (ES 71% vs. LS 94%, p=0.0003) and after hospitalization (ES 49% vs. LS 92%, p<0.0001). Seizure recurred in 56 patients (14 ES, 41 LS) after discharge during a median follow-up of 29 months. In a multivariate Cox proportional-hazards model of these patients, independent predictors of recurrence included status epilepticus (HR 2.28,95% CI 1.08-5.17) and LS (HR 3.62,95% CI 1.11-10.09)(p<0.05, respectively). Conclusion: Status epilepticus and LS were risk factors of seizure recurrence in first-ever post-stroke seizure.


Rheumatology ◽  
2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shinji Izuka ◽  
Hiroyuki Yamashita ◽  
Arisa Iba ◽  
Yuko Takahashi ◽  
Hiroshi Kaneko

Abstract Objectives RA-associated interstitial lung disease (RA-ILD) is commonly associated with acute exacerbations (ILD-AE). This study examined the clinical characteristics and risk factors of ILD-AE and mortality of RA-ILD. Methods We retrospectively collected data on 165 RA-ILD patients who visited or were admitted to our hospital between January 2007 and December 2019. We compared the clinical characteristics of patients who did and did not develop ILD-AE and identified variables significantly associated with ILD-AE. We also compared the admission characteristics of those who survived and those who died after admission for ILD-AE. ILD-AE was defined using previously proposed criteria, modified slightly for application to RA-ILD. Results The mean patient age was 73.6 years (s.d. 9.7) and 97 (71.9%) patients were female. Thirty (22.2%) patients developed ILD-AE, 13 (43.3%) of whom died. In univariate analyses, neither the usual interstitial pneumonia (UIP) pattern nor MTX was associated with ILD-AE. In multivariate analyses, the UIP pattern was significantly associated with ILD-AE [odds ratio (OR) 2.55 (95% CI 1.05, 6.20), P = 0.038]. In the Cox proportional hazards model, the UIP pattern [hazard ratio (HR) 4.67 (95% CI 1.02, 21.45), P = 0.048] was significantly associated with death, while MTX use [HR 0.16 (95% CI 0.04, 0.72), P = 0.016] was significantly associated with survival. Conclusion Our data suggest that the UIP pattern is related to ILD-AE. Furthermore, both the UIP pattern and non-use of MTX might be related to death from ILD-AE in RA-ILD.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Agnes Martine Nielsen ◽  
Rikke Linnemann Nielsen ◽  
Louise Donnelly ◽  
Kaixin Zhou ◽  
Anders Dahl ◽  
...  

Abstract Background: In recent years, a variety of new machine learning methods are being employed in prediction of disease progression, e.g. random forest or neural networks, but how do they compare to and are they direct substitutes for the more traditional statistical methods like the Cox proportional hazards model? In this paper, we compare three of the most commonly used approaches to model prediction of disease progression. We consider a type 2 diabetes case from a cohort-based population in Tayside, UK. In this study, the time until a patient goes onto insulin treatment is of interest; in particular discriminating between slow and fast progression. This means that we are both interested in the results as a raw time-to-insulin prediction but also in a dichotomized outcome making the prediction a classification.Methods: Three different methods for prediction are considered: A Cox proportional hazards model, random forest for survival data and a neural network on the dichotomized outcome. The performance is evaluated using survival performance measures (concordance indices and the integrated Brier score) and using the accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and Matthews correlation.coefficient for the corresponding classification problems.Results: We found no improvement when using the conditional inference forest over the Cox model. The neural network out performed the conditional inference forest in the classification problem. We discuss the limitations of the three approaches and where they each excel in terms of prediction performance, interpretation, and how they handle data imbalance.


2019 ◽  
Vol 37 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. 5025-5025 ◽  
Author(s):  
YaoYao Guan Pollock ◽  
Matthew Raymond Smith ◽  
Fred Saad ◽  
Simon Chowdhury ◽  
Stephane Oudard ◽  
...  

5025 Background: SPARTAN, a phase 3 study of APA vs placebo (PBO) added to ongoing ADT in pts with nmCRPC, demonstrated that APA significantly prolongs metastasis-free survival, time to symptomatic progression, and second progression free survival (Smith et al. NEJM 2018), with no decline in health-related quality of life (Saad et al. Lancet Oncol 2018). SPARTAN pts who received APA, vs PBO, with ongoing ADT had higher rates of falls (15.6% vs 9.0%) and fractures (11.7% vs 6.5%). An analysis was performed to identify clinical characteristics associated with falls and fractures in APA-treated SPARTAN pts. Methods: Of 1207 pts enrolled, 806 were randomized to APA. Univariate Cox proportional hazards model (UVA) assessed the association of 47 baseline clinical characteristics (demographics, comorbidities, and medication use, including bone-sparing agents) with time to fall or time to fracture. Characteristics with p values < 0.10 were included in a multivariate Cox proportional hazards model (MVA) to determine independent factors associated with these outcomes (p < 0.05). Results: Factors associated with time to both fall and fracture on UVA (p < 0.10) included older age, low serum albumin, and poor ECOG performance status (PS). Additional factors associated with time to fall were cerebrovascular accidents/transient ischemic attacks, neuropathy, depression, α-blocker use, and antidepressant use. On MVA, older age, poor ECOG PS, history of neuropathy, and α-blocker use were independently associated with falls; older age and low serum albumin were independently associated with fractures (Table). Conclusions: At initiation of APA added to ongoing ADT, nmCRPC pts with higher risk of falls and fractures can be identified and are candidates for intervention to reduce the risk for these events. Clinical trial information: NCT01946204. [Table: see text]


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