scholarly journals (A30) Risking It All on Risk Assessment – Why Risk Assessment is broken in Disaster Medicine and How We Can Fix it

2011 ◽  
Vol 26 (S1) ◽  
pp. s9-s9
Author(s):  
J. Arnold
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Hurricane Katrina ◽  
Disaster Preparedness ◽  
Cognitive Biases ◽  
Disaster Medicine ◽  
Type I ◽  
The Media ◽  
Managing Risk ◽  
Dirty Bombs ◽  
Type Ii Errors

Why did we predict Y2K, but not 911? Why did we predict dirty bombs for much of the past decade, but failed to predict the Asian Tsunami, Hurricane Katrina, and the Haiti Earthquake? Rational disaster preparedness depends on rational risk assessment – but does this really occur? This presentation will explore why risk assessment in disaster medicine is broken, including (1) type I and type II errors in risk assessment; (2) limitations of human neurophysiology; (3) cognitive biases in risk assessment; (4) impact of the media; (5) lack of harmonization of the language of risk; (6) deference to so-called risk experts; (7) risk innumeracy; (8) flaws in risk assessment matrices; (9) black swan events; and (10) managing risk based on extreme events. Concomitantly, this presentation will explore how we can fix risk assessment in disaster medicine, proffering practical solutions to each of these common yet surmountable barriers.

scholarly journals A Bibliometric Profile of Disaster Medicine Research from 2008 to 2017: A Scientometric Analysis

2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (02) ◽  
pp. 165-172
Author(s):  
Liang Zhou ◽  
Ping Zhang ◽  
Zhigang Zhang ◽  
Lidong Fan ◽  
Shuo Tang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Hurricane Katrina ◽  
Disaster Preparedness ◽  
Analysis Data ◽  
The United States ◽  
Disaster Medicine ◽  
Scientometric Analysis ◽  
Public Health Preparedness ◽  
Medicine Research ◽  
Thomson Reuters

ABSTRACTThis study analyzed and assessed publication trends in articles on “disaster medicine,” using scientometric analysis. Data were obtained from the Web of Science Core Collection (WoSCC) of Thomson Reuters on March 27, 2017. A total of 564 publications on disaster medicine were identified. There was a mild increase in the number of articles on disaster medicine from 2008 (n=55) to 2016 (n=83). Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness published the most articles, the majority of articles were published in the United States, and the leading institute was Tohoku University. F. Della Corte, M. D. Christian, and P. L. Ingrassia were the top authors on the topic, and the field of public health generated the most publications. Terms analysis indicated that emergency medicine, public health, disaster preparedness, natural disasters, medicine, and management were the research hotspots, whereas Hurricane Katrina, mechanical ventilation, occupational medicine, intensive care, and European journals represented the frontiers of disaster medicine research. Overall, our analysis revealed that disaster medicine studies are closely related to other medical fields and provides researchers and policy-makers in this area with new insight into the hotspots and dynamic directions. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2019;13:165–172)

An old friend is better than two new ones? Approaches to market research in the context of digital transformation for the antitrust laws enforcement

2020 ◽  
pp. 37-55 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. E. Shastitko ◽  
O. A. Markova
Keyword(s):  
Business Models ◽  
Rapid Development ◽  
Digital Transformation ◽  
Market Definition ◽  
Type I ◽  
Type Ii ◽  
Digital Platforms ◽  
Advantages And Disadvantages ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
Type Ii Errors

Digital transformation has led to changes in business models of traditional players in the existing markets. What is more, new entrants and new markets appeared, in particular platforms and multisided markets. The emergence and rapid development of platforms are caused primarily by the existence of so called indirect network externalities. Regarding to this, a question arises of whether the existing instruments of competition law enforcement and market analysis are still relevant when analyzing markets with digital platforms? This paper aims at discussing advantages and disadvantages of using various tools to define markets with platforms. In particular, we define the features of the SSNIP test when being applyed to markets with platforms. Furthermore, we analyze adjustment in tests for platform market definition in terms of possible type I and type II errors. All in all, it turns out that to reduce the likelihood of type I and type II errors while applying market definition technique to markets with platforms one should consider the type of platform analyzed: transaction platforms without pass-through and non-transaction matching platforms should be tackled as players in a multisided market, whereas non-transaction platforms should be analyzed as players in several interrelated markets. However, if the platform is allowed to adjust prices, there emerges additional challenge that the regulator and companies may manipulate the results of SSNIP test by applying different models of competition.

The Potential of Tax Surprises to Affect Measures of Tax Avoidance and Researchers' Inferences

2018 ◽  
Vol 41 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-30 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chelsea Rae Austin
Keyword(s):  
Stock Options ◽  
Tax Avoidance ◽  
Type I ◽  
Type Ii ◽  
Effective Tax Rate ◽  
Tax Rate ◽  
Tax Savings ◽  
Type Ii Errors

ABSTRACT While not explicitly stated, many tax avoidance studies seek to investigate tax avoidance that is the result of firms' deliberate actions. However, measures of firms' tax avoidance can also be affected by factors outside the firms' control—tax surprises. This study examines potential complications caused by tax surprises when measuring tax avoidance by focusing on one specific type of surprise tax savings—the unanticipated tax benefit from employees' exercise of stock options. Because the cash effective tax rate (ETR) includes the benefits of this tax surprise, the cash ETR mismeasures firms' deliberate tax avoidance. The analyses conducted show this mismeasurement is material and can lead to both Type I and Type II errors in studies of deliberate tax avoidance. Suggestions to aid researchers in mitigating these concerns are also provided.

The Effect of Stage of Development and Financial Health on Auditor Decision Behavior in the Going-Concern Task

1999 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 37-54 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew J. Rosman ◽  
Inshik Seol ◽  
Stanley F. Biggs
Keyword(s):  
Information Acquisition ◽  
Type I ◽  
Type Ii ◽  
Financial Health ◽  
Inference Problem ◽  
Going Concern ◽  
Start Up ◽  
Mitigating Factors ◽  
Type Ii Errors ◽  
Problem Representations

The effect of different task settings within an industry on auditor behavior is examined for the going-concern task. Using an interactive computer process-tracing method, experienced auditors from four Big 6 accounting firms examined cases based on real data that differed on two dimensions of task settings: stage of organizational development (start-up and mature) and financial health (bankrupt and nonbankrupt). Auditors made judgments about each entity's ability to continue as a going concern and, if they had substantial doubt about continued existence, they listed evidence they would seek as mitigating factors. There are seven principal results. First, information acquisition and, by inference, problem representations were sensitive to differences in task settings. Second, financial mitigating factors dominated nonfinancial mitigating factors in both start-up and mature settings. Third, auditors' behavior reflected configural processing. Fourth, categorizing information into financial and nonfinancial dimensions was critical to understanding how auditors' information acquisition and, by inference, problem representations differed across settings. Fifth, Type I errors (determining that a healthy company is a going-concern problem) differed from correct judgments in terms of information acquisition, although Type II errors (determining that a problem company is viable) did not. This may indicate that Type II errors are primarily due to deficiencies in other stages of processing, such as evaluation. Sixth, auditors who were more accurate tended to follow flexible strategies for financial information acquisition. Finally, accurate performance in the going-concern task was found to be related to acquiring (1) fewer information cues, (2) proportionately more liquidity information and (3) nonfinancial information earlier in the process.

scholarly journals Disaster Day: A Simulation-Based Disaster Medicine Curriculum for Novice Learners

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
pp. 238212052110207
Author(s):  
Brad D Gable ◽  
Asit Misra ◽  
Devin M Doos ◽  
Patrick G Hughes ◽  
Lisa M Clayton ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Medical Students ◽  
Disaster Management ◽  
Disaster Preparedness ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Mass Casualty ◽  
Disaster Medicine ◽  
Incident Command ◽  
Management Concepts ◽  
Simulation Based ◽  
Second Year

Background: Mass casualty and multi-victim incidents have increased in recent years due to a number of factors including natural disasters and terrorism. The Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC) recommends that medical students be trained in disaster preparedness and response. However, a majority of United States medical students are not provided such education. Objective: The goal of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of a 1 day, immersive, simulation-based Disaster Day curriculum. Settings and Design: Learners were first and second year medical students from a single institution. Materials and Methods: Our education provided learners with information on disaster management, allowed for application of this knowledge with hands-on skill stations, and culminated in near full-scale simulation where learners could evaluate the knowledge and skills they had acquired. Statistical analysis used: To study the effectiveness of our Disaster Day curriculum, we conducted a single-group pretest-posttest and paired analysis of self-reported confidence data. Results: A total of 40 first and second year medical students participated in Disaster Day as learners. Learners strongly agreed that this course provided new information or provided clarity on previous training, and they intended to use what they learned, 97.6% and 88.4%, respectively. Conclusions: Medical students’ self-reported confidence of key disaster management concepts including victim triage, tourniquet application, and incident command improved after a simulation-based disaster curriculum. This Disaster Day curriculum provides students the ability to apply concepts learned in the classroom and better understand the real-life difficulties experienced in a resource limited environment.

scholarly journals A novel algorithm to detect non-wear time from raw accelerometer data using deep convolutional neural networks

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shaheen Syed ◽  
Bente Morseth ◽  
Laila A. Hopstock ◽  
Alexander Horsch
Keyword(s):  
Threshold Value ◽  
Detection Algorithm ◽  
Classification Model ◽  
Type I ◽  
Accelerometer Data ◽  
Deep Convolutional Neural Networks ◽  
Major Drawback ◽  
Wear Time ◽  
Detection Algorithms ◽  
Type Ii Errors

AbstractTo date, non-wear detection algorithms commonly employ a 30, 60, or even 90 mins interval or window in which acceleration values need to be below a threshold value. A major drawback of such intervals is that they need to be long enough to prevent false positives (type I errors), while short enough to prevent false negatives (type II errors), which limits detecting both short and longer episodes of non-wear time. In this paper, we propose a novel non-wear detection algorithm that eliminates the need for an interval. Rather than inspecting acceleration within intervals, we explore acceleration right before and right after an episode of non-wear time. We trained a deep convolutional neural network that was able to infer non-wear time by detecting when the accelerometer was removed and when it was placed back on again. We evaluate our algorithm against several baseline and existing non-wear algorithms, and our algorithm achieves a perfect precision, a recall of 0.9962, and an F1 score of 0.9981, outperforming all evaluated algorithms. Although our algorithm was developed using patterns learned from a hip-worn accelerometer, we propose algorithmic steps that can easily be applied to a wrist-worn accelerometer and a retrained classification model.

Community Long Term Care Ombudsman Program Disaster Assistance: Ready, Willing or Able?

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Wayne Nelson ◽  
Bo Kyum Yang ◽  
F. Ellen Netting ◽  
Erin Monahan
Keyword(s):  
Hurricane Katrina ◽  
Disaster Preparedness ◽  
Long Term Care ◽  
Disaster Mitigation ◽  
Term Care ◽  
Disaster Assistance ◽  
Disaster Experience ◽  
Public Crisis ◽  
Disaster Training

AbstractThe high elder care death toll of Hurricane Katrina in 2005, pushed the federally mandated Long-Term Care Ombudsman Program (LTCOP) into the unsought and unforeseen realm of disaster preparedness. This new role was an extension of the LTCOP’s historic resident’s rights investigative case advocacy. To assess if, how, and to what extent local ombudsmen adapted to this new function, 102 local LTCOP leaders completed a telephone survey based on the CMS Emergency Planning Checklist. This assessed their own and their programs’: (a) readiness to help facilities reduce disaster threats to residents, (b) familiarity with relevant disaster laws, rules, and resources; (c) readiness to help residents through the disaster cycle; and (d) levels of disaster training and/or their plans to provide such training to their staff and LTC stakeholders. Forty-two respondents (41.13%) had experienced a public disaster but over half or those responding (n = 56, 54.90%) felt fairly to somewhat prepared to help in a public crisis. After being ready to work away from their office during a crisis ($\overline{x}$ = 4.14, SD = 1.00) respondents felt most prepared “to assist during nursing home emergency closure and evacuation” ($\overline{x}$ = 3.86, SD = 1.09). t-tests revealed that respondents with a disaster experience were significantly more prepared in all assessed dimensions than as those without disaster experience. The study highlights the training needs of ombudsmen in high risk areas to better prepare them for disaster mitigation in nursing homes.

Trivialization of Pediatrics

PEDIATRICS ◽  
1973 ◽  
Vol 51 (4) ◽  
pp. 753-753
Author(s):  
Emperor Watcher ◽  
C. A. S.
Keyword(s):  
Child Health ◽  
Present State ◽  
Type I ◽  
Type Ii ◽  
Testing Hypotheses ◽  
January Issue ◽  
Type Ii Errors

Was the layout editor making a sly comment on the present state of American pediatrics by juxtaposing Mrs. Seymour's letter with the articles concerning Child Health Associates in the January issue (Pediatrics 51:1-16, 1973)? If the word "pediatrician" is substituted for "surgeon " in the 1754 letter, it has a surprisingly modern ring. One gets the impression from reading the four articles that CHAs have demonstrated that they are capable of doing good when compared with practicing pediatricians, but it is not clear whether evidence has been collected to deal with the question of whether the associates cause less harm (in testing hypotheses one is liable to two kinds of error, and the relationships between type I and type II errors is the basis for the Neyman-Pearson theory).

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