scholarly journals HOUSING MARKETS, EXPECTATION FORMATION AND INTEREST RATES

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-42
Author(s):  
Carolin Martin ◽  
Noemi Schmitt ◽  
Frank Westerhoff
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Housing Market ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Housing Markets ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Market Model ◽  
Expectation Formation ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Stock Flow

Based on a behavioral stock-flow housing market model in which the expectation formation behavior of boundedly rational and heterogeneous investors may generate endogenous boom-bust cycles, we explore whether central banks can stabilize housing markets via the interest rate. Using a mix of analytical and numerical tools, we find that the ability of central banks to tame housing markets by increasing the base (target) interest rate, thereby softening the demand pressure on house prices, is rather limited. However, central banks can greatly improve the stability of housing markets by dynamically adjusting the interest rate with respect to mispricing in the housing market.

scholarly journals Regulating Speculative Housing Markets via Public Housing Construction Programs: Insights from a Heterogeneous Agent Model

2019 ◽  
Vol 239 (4) ◽  
pp. 627-660 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carolin Martin ◽  
Frank Westerhoff
Keyword(s):  
Housing Market ◽  
Public Housing ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Housing Markets ◽  
Market Model ◽  
Housing Construction ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
Heterogeneous Agent ◽  
Dynamics Simulations ◽  
Stock Flow

Abstract Since the instability of housing markets may be quite harmful for the real economy, we explore whether public housing construction programs may tame housing market fluctuations. As a workhorse, we use a behavioral stock-flow housing market model in which the complex interplay between speculative and real forces triggers reasonable housing market dynamics. Simulations reveal that plausible and well-intended policy measures may turn out to be a mixed blessing. While public housing construction programs may reduce house prices, they seem to be incapable of bringing house prices much closer towards their fundamental values. In addition, these programs tend to drive out private housing constructions.

scholarly journals Speculative housing markets and rent control: insights from nonlinear economic dynamics

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Noemi Schmitt ◽  
Frank Westerhoff
Keyword(s):  
Housing Market ◽  
Housing Stock ◽  
House Price ◽  
Housing Markets ◽  
Market Model ◽  
Market Dynamics ◽  
Rent Control ◽  
Forecasting Accuracy ◽  
Expectation Formation ◽  
Rent Level

AbstractWe propose a novel housing market model to explore the effectiveness of rent control. Our model reveals that the expectation formation and learning behavior of boundedly rational homebuyers, switching between extrapolative and regressive expectation rules subject to their past forecasting accuracy, may create endogenous housing market dynamics. We show that policymakers may use rent control to reduce the rent level, although such policies may have undesirable effects on the house price and the housing stock. However, we are also able to prove that well-designed rent control may help policymakers to stabilize housing market dynamics, even without creating housing market distortions.

Interest Rates and Macroeconomic Investment under Uncertainty

2021 ◽  
Vol 54 (3) ◽  
pp. 319-345
Author(s):  
Ansgar Belke ◽  
Matthias Göcke
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Monetary Policy Transmission ◽  
Policy Transmission ◽  
Rate Effects ◽  
Exact Shape ◽  
Micro Level ◽  
The Interest Rate

The interest rate is generally considered as an important driver of macroeconomic investment characterised by a particular form of path dependency, “hysteresis”. At the same time, the interest rate channel is a central ingredient of monetary policy transmission. In this context, we shed light on the issue (which currently is a matter of concern for many central banks) whether uncertainty over future interest rates at the zero lower bound hampers monetary policy transmission. As an innovation we derive the exact shape of the “hysteretic” impact of rate changes on macroeconomic investment under different sorts of uncertainty. Starting with hysteresis effects on the micro level, we apply an adequate aggregation procedure to derive the interest rate effects on a macro level. Our results may serve as a guideline for future central banks’ policies on how to stimulate investment in times of low or even zero interest rates and uncertainty.

scholarly journals Banks' Stability

2014 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 60-80
Author(s):  
Wael Bakhit ◽  
Salma Bakhit
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Historical Perspective ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
The Past ◽  
Potential Break ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
The Empirical Analysis

This paper employs a quarterly time series to determine the timing of structural breaks for interest rates in USA over the last 60 years. The Chow test is used for investigating the non-stationary, where the date of the potential break is assumed to be known. Moreover, we empirically examined the deviation from an assumed interest rate as given in a standard Taylor rule and consequences on financial sectors. The empirical analysis is strengthened by analysing the rule from a historical perspective and look at the effect of setting the interest rate by the central bank on financial imbalances. The empirical evidence indicates that deviation in monetary policy has a potential causal factor in the build up of financial imbalances and the subsequent crisis where macro prudential intervention could have beneficial effect. Thus, our findings tend to support the view, which states that the probable existence of central banks has been one source of global financial crisis since the past decade.

Consequences of interest rates benchmarks reform

2020 ◽  
pp. 93-110
Author(s):  
S. R. Moiseev
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Money Markets ◽  
Developed Economies ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
The Interest Rate

The reform of benchmarks is carried out in developed economies from 2014 to 2021. The starting point of a large-scale reform was the scandal with the interest rate LIBOR. Instead of it, national so-called “risk-free” interest rates will appear. Although a problem of manipulating LIBOR will be resolved, new benchmarks bring new problems. They have statistical biases and will not be comparable either to LIBOR or to each other due to methodological differences. The new benchmark rates are overnight rates, and their calculation does not imply the formation of term rates. Instead of the homogeneous LIBOR family, financial markets have received a heterogeneous group of new rates. In some developing economies money markets are absent, and their central banks are faced with a problem of how to calculate the local benchmark rate under the new rules. As an alternative they are searching to use interest rates in neighboring markets.

scholarly journals FOREIGN EXPERIENCE OF REFINANCING OF COMMERCIAL BANKS

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Viktoriia Yankovska ◽  
Olga Telepneva ◽  
Nadiia Spivakova
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Commercial Banks ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Business Activity ◽  
Foreign Experience ◽  
National Bank ◽  
The Interest Rate

The article presents a morphological assessment of the concept of "refinancing of commercial banks" based on the legal framework and definitions of well-known world and Ukrainian scientists and economists. There given a definition of the concept of "refinancing" which means that refinancing is a comprehensive system of monetary policy implementation that is conducted in favor of commercial banks for the recovery of bank resources through such instruments as credit auction, bills of exchange, securities collateral. The refinancing policy of the central banks is different in each country but there are some exceptions to its management. The central bank with a change in the interest rate can influence the rates on commercial banks loans, the level of inflation in the country and the exchange rate of the national currency that is to implement monetary policy. Lowering of interest rates entails increased business activity and rising inflation while rising interest rates have seen a decline in business activity, falling inflation and strengthening the national currency. National banks regulate the domestic exchange rate at the interest rate and the economy as a whole. The formation of the refinancing rate by the National Bank of Ukraine requires constant monitoring that is given the economic situation of the state. Foreign experience in forming the refinancing rate and using a successful mechanism is an important element in building an effective banking system. The foreign experience of the refinancing rate formation by the central banks of the world was monitored. Particular attention is paid to the analysis of the dynamics of the refinancing rate of countries such as Japan, the United States, Australia, Great Britain and China. The main priorities that the central bank should be guided by when setting the refinancing rate have been identified. Changes in the discount rate of the National Bank of Ukraine for the last seven years and the factors influencing the decision to change the interest rate are analyzed. The priority tasks to be set by the Government of Ukraine is to stabilize the financial condition of the country have been identified. Ways to improve the mechanism of refinancing of commercial banks in the economic conditions of Ukraine are outlined.

DETERMINAN INFLASI DI INDONESIA PERIODE 1980-2015

2016 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-7
Author(s):  
Risna Risna
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Quantitative Approach ◽  
State Spending ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
The Interest Rate

This study aims to determine the effect of government spending, the money supply, the interest rate of Bank Indonesia against inflation.This study uses secondary data. Secondary data were obtained directly from the Central Bureau of Statistics and Bank Indonesia. It can be said that there are factors affecting inflationas government spending, money supply, and interest rates BI. The reseach uses a quantitative approach to methods of e-views in the data. The results of analysis of three variables show that state spending significantand positive impact on inflationin Indonesia, the money supply significantand negative to inflationin Indonesia, BI rate a significantand positive impact on inflation in Indonesia

scholarly journals Risk Management for Bonds with Embedded Options

Mathematics ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (5) ◽  
pp. 790
Author(s):  
Antonio Díaz ◽  
Marta Tolentino
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Interest Rate Risk ◽  
Interest Rate Models ◽  
Management Measures ◽  
Interest Rate Risk Management ◽  
Embedded Options ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rate Change

This paper examines the behavior of the interest rate risk management measures for bonds with embedded options and studies factors it depends on. The contingent option exercise implies that both the pricing and the risk management of bonds requires modelling future interest rates. We use the Ho and Lee (HL) and Black, Derman, and Toy (BDT) consistent interest rate models. In addition, specific interest rate measures that consider the contingent cash-flow structure of these coupon-bearing bonds must be computed. In our empirical analysis, we obtained evidence that effective duration and effective convexity depend primarily on the level of the forward interest rate and volatility. In addition, the higher the interest rate change and the lower the volatility, the greater the differences in pricing of these bonds when using the HL or BDT models.

scholarly journals The Impact of Interest Rate Ceilings on Microfinance Industry

2015 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 10
Author(s):  
Ali Saleh Alshebami ◽  
D. M. Khandare
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Research Subject ◽  
Access To Credit ◽  
The Poor ◽  
Good Intention ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
The Impact

<p>Imposing ceilings on the interest rate has recently become one of the new hottest topics in microfinance industry; various debates have been discussing this issue to know the effect of interest rate ceilings on the supply of credit in particular and on microfinance industry in general. However in spite of the good intention behind these ceilings, there was no absolute result stating that ceilings have really contributed to the improvement or protection of the poor clients, indeed, these ceilings have hurt those low income people instead of helping them, due to these ceilings most of MFIs left the market or reduced their scale due to the inability to continue operating with low interest rate leaving the very poor clients without access to credit. Thus, the purpose of this paper is to review the impact of imposing such ceilings on the interest rates and to find out what alterative solutions can be employed as substitutes for them. This paper is entirely based on the secondary data collected from various records related to microfinance such as microfinance books, official websites and reports, published papers, and other sources related to the research subject.</p>

scholarly journals Analysis of Housing Market Dynamics Considering the Structural Characteristics of Mortgage Interest

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (19) ◽  
pp. 10523
Author(s):  
Insoo Baek ◽  
Sanghyo Lee ◽  
Joosung Lee ◽  
Jaejun Kim
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Housing Market ◽  
Structural Characteristics ◽  
Housing Demand ◽  
Market Mechanism ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Mortgage Loan ◽  
Market Mechanisms ◽  
The Government

Mortgage loan interest rates consists of base interest and spread. In general, the base interest is adjusted by the government for the sustainability of the housing market. On the other hand, spread is determined by market mechanisms. Accordingly, the change pattern of base interest and spread may appear differently depending on the market situation. In the end, the effect of the government’s market intervention through interest rate policy may be different than expected. In this respect, the purpose of this paper is to analyze the effects of base interest and spread of the mortgage loan interest rate on the housing market and to derive important policy implications for the sustainability of the housing market. As a result of this study, the ineffectiveness of the government’s interest rate policies on the stability of the housing market was confirmed. The market mechanisms had more significant effects on the sustainability of the housing market than artificial political intervention. Further, housing supply policies based on the market mechanism could be more effective than housing demand policies based on interest-rate adjustments.

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