Knightian uncertainty in non-market institutional settings: the case of democracy and nonprofit civil society

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-15
Author(s):  
Scott Burns ◽  
G. P. Manish ◽  
Malavika Nair
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Private Property ◽  
Consumer Preferences ◽  
Human Action ◽  
Knightian Uncertainty ◽  
Hard Case ◽  
Democratic Government ◽  
Institutional Settings ◽  
Political Entrepreneurs ◽  
Production Plans

Abstract The implications of Knightian uncertainty are frequently discussed in the context of market-based institutional settings. Given money prices, entrepreneurs can engage in calculative action, in conjunction with ‘judgment’, to guide decision-making and bring about a coordination of production plans with consumer preferences. However, if the existence of Knightian uncertainty is ubiquitous and applies to all human action, then what are its implications in non-market institutional settings? This paper explores questions related to the implications of Knightian uncertainty for two important non-market institutional settings: democratic government and the nonprofit or philanthropic sector, where there is an explicit lack of monetary calculation, yet nonprofit and political entrepreneurs still must use ‘judgment’ to deal with Knightian uncertainty. For instance, what are the implications of private property and privatized cost in the case of nonprofits versus the absence of private property and socialized cost in the case of democracy, in the presence of Knightian uncertainty? Which group of ‘consumers’ is likely to have their preferences satisfied when it comes to nonprofits (benefactors or beneficiaries) and democratic government (voters or lobbyists)? The paper, thus, points to the importance of further research on the implications of Knightian uncertainty in the hard case of non-market institutional settings.

scholarly journals EXPRESS: Marketers Project Their Personal Preferences onto Consumers: Overcoming the Threat of Egocentric Decision Making

2021 ◽  
pp. 002224372199837
Author(s):  
Walter Herzog ◽  
Johannes D. Hattula ◽  
Darren W. Dahl
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Consumer Preferences ◽  
Research Question ◽  
Pilot Studies ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Marketing Managers ◽  
False Consensus Effect ◽  
False Consensus ◽  
High Level

This research explores how marketing managers can avoid the so-called false consensus effect—the egocentric tendency to project personal preferences onto consumers. Two pilot studies were conducted to provide evidence for the managerial importance of this research question and to explore how marketing managers attempt to avoid false consensus effects in practice. The results suggest that the debiasing tactic most frequently used by marketers is to suppress their personal preferences when predicting consumer preferences. Four subsequent studies show that, ironically, this debiasing tactic can backfire and increase managers’ susceptibility to the false consensus effect. Specifically, the results suggest that these backfire effects are most likely to occur for managers with a low level of preference certainty. In contrast, the results imply that preference suppression does not backfire but instead decreases false consensus effects for managers with a high level of preference certainty. Finally, the studies explore the mechanism behind these results and show how managers can ultimately avoid false consensus effects—regardless of their level of preference certainty and without risking backfire effects.

Kenneth Fisher’s heuristics

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 130-148
Author(s):  
Carlo Massironi ◽  
Giusy Chesini
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Conceptual Analysis ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Human Action ◽  
Theory Of Knowledge ◽  
Constructivist Theory ◽  
Individual Investors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Radical Constructivist

Purpose The authors are interested in building descriptive – real life – models of successful investors’ investment reasoning and decision-making. Models designed to be useful for trying to replicate and evolve their reasoning and decision-making. The purpose of this paper, a case study, is to take the substantial material – on innovating the investing tools – published in four books (2006/2012, 2010, 2011, 2015) by a US stock investor named Kenneth Fisher (CEO of Fisher Investments, Woodside, California) and sketch Fisher’s investment innovating reasoning model. Design/methodology/approach To sketch Fisher’s investment innovating reasoning model, the authors used the Radical constructivist theory of knowledge, a framework for analyzing human action and reasoning called Symbolic interactionism and a qualitative analytic technique called Conceptual analysis. The authors have done qualitative research applied to the study of investment decision-making of a single professional investor. Findings In the paper, the authors analyzed and described the heuristics used by Fisher to build subsequent generations of investing tools (called by Fisher “Capital Markets Technology”) to try to make better forecasts to beat the stock market. The authors were interested in studying the evolutive dimensions of the tools to make forecasts of a successful investor: the “how to build it” and “how to evolve it” dimension. Originality/value The paper offers an account of Kenneth Fisher’s framework to reason the innovation of investing tools. The authors believe that this paper could be of interest to professional money managers and to all those who are involved in the study and development of the tools of investing. This work is also an example of the use of the Radical constructivist theory of knowledge, the Symbolic interactionist framework and the Conceptual analysis to build descriptive models of investment reasoning of individual investors, models designed to enable the reproduction/approximation of the conceptual operations of the investor.

Impact of Information Technology on Information Search Channel Selection for Consumers

2018 ◽  
Vol 30 (3) ◽  
pp. 63-80 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gaurav Khatwani ◽  
Praveen Ranjan Srivastava
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Information Technology ◽  
Digital Media ◽  
Information Search ◽  
Decision Process ◽  
Consumer Preferences ◽  
Fuzzy Ahp ◽  
Target Market ◽  
Information Channels ◽  
Search For Information

As information technology has evolved, digital media has become increasingly fragmented and has started to proliferate multiple information channels. In order to optimize on the various digital channels that are available, organizations are increasingly recognizing the importance of gaining solid insights into consumer behavior and preferences that can be translated into marketing strategies. Specifically, they are keen to identify which information channels they can use to effectively reach and communicate with their target market. In this regard, this paper describes how multi criteria decision making can be used to develop a new method of decision making that will enable an effective and systematic decision process of fuzzy AHP and TOPSIS. Further, these techniques can be used for the developing framework for identifying consumer preferences. This paper provides a demonstration of the underpinning working methodology of the proposed model by examining an real case that is based on the decision process Internet users employ during their online search for information.

scholarly journals Nature value: the evolution of this concept

2012 ◽  
Vol 36 (1) ◽  
pp. 9-15
Author(s):  
Sabrina Soares da Silva ◽  
Ricardo Pereira Reis ◽  
Patrícia Aparecida Ferreira
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Natural Resources ◽  
Environmental Degradation ◽  
Economic Valuation ◽  
Human Action ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Environment Management ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Current Scenario ◽  
The Impact

More attention has been paid to environmental matters in recent years, mainly due to the current scenario of accentuated environmental degradation. The economic valuation of nature goods can contribute to the decision-making process in environment management, generating a more comprehensive informational base. This paper aims to present, in a historic perspective, the different concepts attributed to nature goods and were related to the current predominant perspectives of nature analyses. For this purpose, this paper presents the different concepts attributed to value since the pre-classical period, when nature were viewed as inert and passive providers of goods and services, this view legitimized nature's exploration without concern over the preservation and conservation of nature. The capacity of nature to absorb the impact of human action appears to be reaching its limit, considering the irreversibility, the irreproducibility and the possibility of collapse. The appropriate method for valuing natural resources is not known, but more important than the method is to respect and incorporate the particular characteristics of the nature goods into this process. These characteristics must be valuated in order to arrive at a more consistence approach to nature value and promote sustainability.

scholarly journals Conjoint Analysis for Consumer Preferences Towards Buying Plaster Sheets

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ali Bekti Widodo ◽  
Tony Antonio
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Conjoint Analysis ◽  
Coating Thickness ◽  
Information Seeking ◽  
Consumer Preferences ◽  
Problem Identification ◽  
Sheet Products ◽  
Special Quality ◽  
Product Thickness

In buying a product, consumers usually decide to purchase through certain stages and consumers understand their needs. Consumers also get stimuli from other people’s opinions including for problem identification, information seeking, evaluation, and decision-making activities. This study aimed to analyze the attributes that affect consumer preferences in buying plaster sheet products of CV Anugrah Jaya Sentosa. The questions studied in this research were: What are the attributes that affect consumer preferences in buying plaster sheet products? What are the most critical attributes for consumers of CV Anugrah Jaya Sentosa plaster sheet products? The most important attribute was a product thickness of 12 mm with a special quality, then a layer of purchase of goods only and a layer of paint + stain that simplifies the work for finishing and produces maximum results. Keywords: ceiling products, quality, coating, thickness, purchase

scholarly journals Willingness to pay estimates informing agribusiness decision making: a cautionary tale

2018 ◽  
Vol 21 (7) ◽  
pp. 865-882 ◽  
Author(s):  
Courtney Bir ◽  
Ann M. Cummins ◽  
Nicole Olynk Widmar ◽  
Christopher A. Wolf
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Willingness To Pay ◽  
Consumer Preferences ◽  
Food Product ◽  
Cautionary Tale ◽  
Reliability Of Results ◽  
Multiple Methods ◽  
Business Decisions ◽  
Insight Into ◽  
Improve Reliability

Multiple methods to improve reliability of results when using willingness-to-pay (WTP) to evaluate consumer preferences have been developed. This study compared methods of accounting for attribute non-attendance (ANA) in WTP for food product attributes. Both inferred and stated ANA were studied and estimates of WTP for pork chop and bacon attributes were compared. A larger number of significant differences were found between stated or inferred ANA corrected models than between corrected and uncorrected models. Significant correlations between inferred and stated ANA were not present and WTP estimates from correcting for inferred ANA (IANA) or stated ANA were statistically different from one another. Exploring WTP estimates across ANA corrected models is imperative for improving models to provide insight into consumer preferences. These insights can be used in making production decisions in order to meet consumer demands and inconsistent results can lead to conflicting business decisions.

Modern Financial Market Theory – A Critique Based on the Logic of Human Action

2021 ◽  
Vol 54 (3) ◽  
pp. 447-467
Author(s):  
Thorsten Polleit
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Real World ◽  
Rational Expectation ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
Human Action ◽  
Market Theory ◽  
Expectation Theory ◽  
Market Economics

The modern financial market theory (MFMT) – based on the efficient market hypothesis, rational expectation theory, and modern portfolio theory – has become the standard approach in financial market economics. In this article, the MFMT will be critically ­reviewed using the logic of human action (or: praxeology) as an epistemological meta­theory. It will be shown that the MFMT exhibits (praxeo-)logical deficiencies so that it cannot provide investors with well-founded decision-making support in real-world financial markets.

Human Action in the Loop

2015 ◽  
pp. 352-368
Author(s):  
Hartwig Steusloff ◽  
Michael Decker
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Human Action ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
System Component ◽  
Ethical Reflection ◽  
High Expectations ◽  
Human In The Loop ◽  
Human Decision ◽  
System Life ◽  
The One

Extremely complex systems like the smart grid or autonomous cars need to meet society's high expectations regarding their safe operation. The human designer and operator becomes a “system component” as soon as responsible decision making is needed. Tacit knowledge and other human properties are of crucial relevance for situation-dependent decisions. The uniform modeling of technical systems and humans will benefit from ethical reflection. In this chapter, we describe human action with technical means and ask, on the one hand, for a comprehensive multidisciplinary technology assessment in order to produce supporting knowledge and methods for technical and societal decision making. On the other hand—and here is the focus—we propose a system life cycle approach which integrates the human in the loop and argue that it can be worthwhile to describe humans in a technical way in order to implement human decision making by means of the use case method. Ethical reflection and even ethically based technical decision making can support the effective control of convergent technology systems.

3. Decision-making and democracy in the EU

2020 ◽  
pp. 61-87
Author(s):  
Sylvia de Mars
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Transition Period ◽  
Democratic Deficit ◽  
Eu Law ◽  
Democratic Government ◽  
Decision Making Processes ◽  
Big Events ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu

This chapter analyses what EU academics have termed the ‘democratic deficit’ in the EU. In EU law, the concept of the ‘democratic deficit’ is used to classify the EU as a system that may hold some of the qualities of a democratic government, but is lacking others. The chapter then investigates just how much ‘democracy’ exists in the EU decision-making processes. There are those who claim that the EU will never be democratic, and those who argue that the EU actually does not suffer from true shortcomings. The chapter evaluates both of those claims, and considers if recent big events in the EU — such as the ratification of the Lisbon Treaty, and the so-called Eurozone financial crisis — impact upon the debate. It also looks at the nature of Brexit during the Withdrawal Agreement's transition period, as well as the future relationship between the UK and the EU.

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