scholarly journals Surface latent heat flux and its relationship with sea surface temperature in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System simulations and retrospective forecasts

2007 ◽  
Vol 34 (17) ◽  
Author(s):  
Renguang Wu ◽  
Ben P. Kirtman ◽  
Kathy Pegion
Keyword(s):  
Heat Flux ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Latent Heat Flux ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Climate Forecast ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
Climate Forecast System ◽  
Surface Latent Heat Flux ◽  
Environmental Prediction

scholarly journals An Analysis of the Nonstationarity in the Bias of Sea Surface Temperature Forecasts for the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) Version 2

2012 ◽  
Vol 140 (9) ◽  
pp. 3003-3016 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Kumar ◽  
M. Chen ◽  
L. Zhang ◽  
W. Wang ◽  
Y. Xue ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Long Range ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Climate Forecast ◽  
Prediction System ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
Climate Forecast System ◽  
Forecast Bias

Abstract For long-range predictions (e.g., seasonal), it is a common practice for retrospective forecasts (also referred to as the hindcasts) to accompany real-time predictions. The necessity for the hindcasts stems from the fact that real-time predictions need to be calibrated in an attempt to remove the influence of model biases on the predicted anomalies. A fundamental assumption behind forecast calibration is the long-term stationarity of forecast bias that is derived based on hindcasts. Hindcasts require specification of initial conditions for various components of the prediction system (e.g., ocean, atmosphere) that are generally taken from a long reanalysis. Trends and discontinuities in the reanalysis that are either real or spurious can arise due to several reasons, for example, the changing observing system. If changes in initial conditions were to persist during the forecast, there is a potential for forecast bias to depend over the period it is computed, making calibration even more of a challenging task. In this study such a case is discussed for the recently implemented seasonal prediction system at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFS.v2). Based on the analysis of the CFS.v2 for 1981–2009, it is demonstrated that the characteristics of the forecast bias for sea surface temperature (SST) in the equatorial Pacific had a dramatic change around 1999. Furthermore, change in the SST forecast bias, and its relationship to changes in the ocean reanalysis from which the ocean initial conditions for hindcasts are taken is described. Implications for seasonal and other long-range predictions are discussed.

scholarly journals Latent Heat Flux Sensitivity to Sea Surface Temperature: Regional Perspectives

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (1) ◽  
pp. 129-143 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Praveen Kumar ◽  
Meghan F. Cronin ◽  
Sudheer Joseph ◽  
M. Ravichandran ◽  
N. Sureshkumar
Keyword(s):  
Heat Flux ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Latent Heat ◽  
Latent Heat Flux ◽  
Global Analysis ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
State Variables ◽  
Monsoon Period

A global analysis of latent heat flux (LHF) sensitivity to sea surface temperature (SST) is performed, with focus on the tropics and the north Indian Ocean (NIO). Sensitivity of LHF state variables (surface wind speed Ws and vertical humidity gradients Δq) to SST give rise to mutually interacting dynamical (Ws driven) and thermodynamical (Δq driven) coupled feedbacks. Generally, LHF sensitivity to SST is pronounced over tropics where SST increase causes Ws (Δq) changes, resulting in a maximum decrease (increase) of LHF by ~15 W m−2 (°C)−1. But the Bay of Bengal (BoB) and north Arabian Sea (NAS) remain an exception that is opposite to the global feedback relationship. This uniqueness is attributed to strong seasonality in monsoon Ws and Δq variations, which brings in warm (cold) continental air mass into the BoB and NAS during summer (winter), producing a large seasonal cycle in air–sea temperature difference ΔT (and hence in Δq). In other tropical oceans, surface air is mostly of marine origin and blows from colder to warmer waters, resulting in a constant ΔT ~ 1°C throughout the year, and hence a constant Δq. Thus, unlike other basins, when the BoB and NAS are warming, air temperature warms faster than SST. The resultant decrease in ΔT and Δq contributes to decrease the LHF with increased SST, contrary to other basins. This analysis suggests that, in the NIO, LHF variability is largely controlled by thermodynamic processes, which peak during the monsoon period. These observed LHF sensitivities are then used to speculate how the surface energetics and coupled feedbacks may change in a warmer world.

scholarly journals Mechanisms of Summertime Subtropical Southern Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperature Variability: On the Importance of Humidity Anomalies and the Meridional Advection of Water Vapor*

2007 ◽  
Vol 20 (19) ◽  
pp. 4835-4852 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. M. Chiodi ◽  
D. E. Harrison
Keyword(s):  
Heat Flux ◽  
Water Vapor ◽  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Latent Heat Flux ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Sst Variability ◽  
Flux Variability ◽  
Meridional Advection

Abstract It is well known that some austral summertime subtropical Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) variability correlates with rainfall over certain regions of Africa that depend on rainfall for their economic well-being. Recent studies have determined that this SST variability is at least partially driven by latent heat flux variability, but the mechanism has not been fully described. Here, the mechanism that drives this SST variability is reexamined using analyses of operational air–sea fluxes, ocean mixed layer modeling, and simple atmospheric boundary layer physics. The SST variability of interest is confirmed to be mainly driven by latent heat flux variability, which is shown, for the first time, to be mainly caused by near-surface humidity variability. This humidity variability is then shown to be fundamentally driven by the anomalous meridional advection of water vapor. The meridional wind anomalies of interest are subsequently found to occur when the subtropical atmospheric anticyclone is preferentially located toward one of the sides (east/west) of the basin.

scholarly journals Coupling Ocean Currents and Waves with Wind Stress over the Gulf Stream

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 1476 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qi Shi ◽  
Mark A. Bourassa
Keyword(s):  
Heat Flux ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Latent Heat Flux ◽  
Wind Stress ◽  
Gulf Stream ◽  
Satellite Observations ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Current Stress ◽  
Induced Changes

This study provides the first detailed analysis of oceanic and atmospheric responses to the current-stress, wave-stress, and wave-current-stress interactions around the Gulf Stream using a high-resolution three-way coupled regional modeling system. In general, our results highlight the substantial impact of coupling currents and/or waves with wind stress on the air–sea fluxes over the Gulf Stream. The stress and the curl of the stress are crucial to mixed-layer energy budgets and sea surface temperature. In the wave-current-stress coupled experiment, wind stress increased by 15% over the Gulf Stream. Alternating positive and negative bands of changes of Ekman-related vertical velocity appeared in response to the changes of the wind stress curl along the Gulf Stream, with magnitudes exceeding 0.3 m/day (the 95th percentile). The response of wind stress and its curl to the wave-current-stress coupling was not a linear combination of responses to the wave-stress coupling and the current-stress coupling because the ocean and wave induced changes in the atmosphere showed substantial feedback on the ocean. Changes of a latent heat flux in excess of 20 W/m2 and a sensible heat flux in excess of 5 W/m2 were found over the Gulf Stream in all coupled experiments. Sensitivity tests show that sea surface temperature (SST) induced difference of air–sea humidity is a major contributor to latent heat flux (LHF) change. Validation is challenging because most satellite observations lack the spatial resolution to resolve the current-induced changes in wind stress curls and heat fluxes. Scatterometer observations can be used to examine the changes in wind stress across the Gulf Stream. The conversion of model data to equivalent neutral winds is highly dependent on the physics considered in the air–sea turbulent fluxes, as well as air–sea temperature differences. This sensitivity is shown to be large enough that satellite observations of winds can be used to test the flux parameterizations in coupled models.

scholarly journals Meteorological impacts of sea-surface temperature associated with the humid airflow from Tropical Cyclone Talas (2011)

2014 ◽  
Vol 32 (7) ◽  
pp. 841-857 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Yamamoto
Keyword(s):  
Heat Flux ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Latent Heat ◽  
Latent Heat Flux ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Horizontal Wind ◽  
Sst Anomaly

Abstract. This paper examines meteorological impacts of sea-surface temperature (SST) in the presence of the humid airflow from Tropical Cyclone Talas (2011). To investigate the influence of the SST on the severe weather in and around Japan, sensitivity simulations were conducted using six SST data products covering a period of 7 days. The upward sea-surface latent heat flux that accumulated over the 7-day period was high around the Kuroshio during the slow passage of the tropical cyclone. Large differences were found among the individual SST products around the southern coast of Japan. The coastal warm SST anomaly of ~ 1.5 °C enhanced the surface upward latent heat fluxes (by 60 to 80%), surface southeasterly winds (by 6 to 8%), and surface water mixing ratios (by 4%) over the coastal sea area. The enhanced latent heat flux resulting from the coastal SST anomaly contributed to the further enhancement of the latent heat flux itself via a positive feedback with the amplified surface horizontal wind. The SST anomalies produced an anomaly in 7-day precipitation (ca. 40 mm) along the mountainsides and over a coastal area where the surface wind anomaly was locally large. Thus, coastal SST error is important in the atmospheric simulation of accumulated evaporation and precipitation associated with tropical cyclones making landfall.

The Behavior of the Bulk – Skin Sea Surface Temperature Difference under Varying Wind Speed and Heat Flux

1996 ◽  
Vol 26 (10) ◽  
pp. 1969-1988 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gary A. Wick ◽  
William J. Emery ◽  
Lakshmi H. Kantha ◽  
Peter Schlüssel
Keyword(s):  
Heat Flux ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Temperature Difference ◽  
Sea Surface

scholarly journals Reanalysis intercomparisons of stratospheric polar processing diagnostics

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (18) ◽  
pp. 13547-13579 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zachary D. Lawrence ◽  
Gloria L. Manney ◽  
Krzysztof Wargan
Keyword(s):  
Interannual Variability ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Climate Forecast ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
Climate Forecast System ◽  
Stratospheric Polar Vortex ◽  
Scientific Results ◽  
Environmental Prediction ◽  
Low Sensitivity

Abstract. We compare herein polar processing diagnostics derived from the four most recent “full-input” reanalysis datasets: the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System Reanalysis/Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSR/CFSv2), the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Interim (ERA-Interim) reanalysis, the Japanese Meteorological Agency's 55-year (JRA-55) reanalysis, and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2). We focus on diagnostics based on temperatures and potential vorticity (PV) in the lower-to-middle stratosphere that are related to formation of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs), chlorine activation, and the strength, size, and longevity of the stratospheric polar vortex. Polar minimum temperatures (Tmin) and the area of regions having temperatures below PSC formation thresholds (APSC) show large persistent differences between the reanalyses, especially in the Southern Hemisphere (SH), for years prior to 1999. Average absolute differences of the reanalyses from the reanalysis ensemble mean (REM) in Tmin are as large as 3 K at some levels in the SH (1.5 K in the Northern Hemisphere – NH), and absolute differences of reanalysis APSC from the REM up to 1.5 % of a hemisphere (0.75 % of a hemisphere in the NH). After 1999, the reanalyses converge toward better agreement in both hemispheres, dramatically so in the SH: average Tmin differences from the REM are generally less than 1 K in both hemispheres, and average APSC differences less than 0.3 % of a hemisphere. The comparisons of diagnostics based on isentropic PV for assessing polar vortex characteristics, including maximum PV gradients (MPVGs) and the area of the vortex in sunlight (or sunlit vortex area, SVA), show more complex behavior: SH MPVGs showed convergence toward better agreement with the REM after 1999, while NH MPVGs differences remained largely constant over time; differences in SVA remained relatively constant in both hemispheres. While the average differences from the REM are generally small for these vortex diagnostics, understanding such differences among the reanalyses is complicated by the need to use different methods to obtain vertically resolved PV for the different reanalyses. We also evaluated other winter season summary diagnostics, including the winter mean volume of air below PSC thresholds, and vortex decay dates. For the volume of air below PSC thresholds, the reanalyses generally agree best in the SH, where relatively small interannual variability has led to many winter seasons with similar polar processing potential and duration, and thus low sensitivity to differences in meteorological conditions among the reanalyses. In contrast, the large interannual variability of NH winters has given rise to many seasons with marginal conditions that are more sensitive to reanalysis differences. For vortex decay dates, larger differences are seen in the SH than in the NH; in general, the differences in decay dates among the reanalyses follow from persistent differences in their vortex areas. Our results indicate that the transition from the reanalyses assimilating Tiros Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) data to advanced TOVS and other data around 1998–2000 resulted in a profound improvement in the agreement of the temperature diagnostics presented (especially in the SH) and to a lesser extent the agreement of the vortex diagnostics. We present several recommendations for using reanalyses in polar processing studies, particularly related to the sensitivity to changes in data inputs and assimilation. Because of these sensitivities, we urge great caution for studies aiming to assess trends derived from reanalysis temperatures. We also argue that one of the best ways to assess the sensitivity of scientific results on polar processing is to use multiple reanalysis datasets.

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