scholarly journals Better Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Forecasts for Water Management

Eos ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 102 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael DeFlorio ◽  
F. Ralph ◽  
Duane Waliser ◽  
Jeanine Jones ◽  
Michael Anderson
Keyword(s):  
Water Management ◽  
Resource Management ◽  
Lead Times ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Precipitation Forecasting ◽  
Droughts And Floods

Emerging methods that improve precipitation forecasting over weeks to months could support more informed resource management and increase lead times for responding to droughts and floods.

scholarly journals Seasonal Rainfall Forecasts for the Yangtze River Basin in the Extreme Summer of 2020

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philip E. Bett ◽  
Gill M. Martin ◽  
Nick Dunstone ◽  
Adam A. Scaife ◽  
Hazel E. Thornton ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Linear Regression ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Yangtze River ◽  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Yangtze River Basin ◽  
Early Summer ◽  
Lead Times ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
June July ◽  
The Impact

AbstractSeasonal forecasts for Yangtze River basin rainfall in June, May–June–July (MJJ), and June–July–August (JJA) 2020 are presented, based on the Met Office GloSea5 system. The three-month forecasts are based on dynamical predictions of an East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) index, which is transformed into regional-mean rainfall through linear regression. The June rainfall forecasts for the middle/lower Yangtze River basin are based on linear regression of precipitation. The forecasts verify well in terms of giving strong, consistent predictions of above-average rainfall at lead times of at least three months. However, the Yangtze region was subject to exceptionally heavy rainfall throughout the summer period, leading to observed values that lie outside the 95% prediction intervals of the three-month forecasts. The forecasts presented here are consistent with other studies of the 2020 EASM rainfall, whereby the enhanced mei-yu front in early summer is skillfully forecast, but the impact of midlatitude drivers enhancing the rainfall in later summer is not captured. This case study demonstrates both the utility of probabilistic seasonal forecasts for the Yangtze region and the potential limitations in anticipating complex extreme events driven by a combination of coincident factors.

scholarly journals Minimizing carbon loss through integrated water resource management on peatland utilization in Pulau Burung, Riau, Indonesia

2020 ◽  
Vol 200 ◽  
pp. 02019
Author(s):  
Nurul Ihsan Fawzi ◽  
Annisa Noyara Rahmasary ◽  
Ika Zahara Qurani
Keyword(s):  
Water Management ◽  
Resource Management ◽  
Water Resource ◽  
Water Table ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Peat Soil ◽  
Carbon Loss ◽  
Integrated Water Resource Management ◽  
Subsidence Rate ◽  
Yearly Average

Sustainable utilization of peatland is required for balancing production and conservation efforts. On peatland, one of the main components to examine sustainability is understanding the carbon balance. This research was conducted in Pulau Burung, Riau, Indonesia, which has a long history of peatland utilization for agriculture. The sets of utilized data included historical data of water management on peatland represented by water table and subsidence rate, next to carbon density of peat soil. The results showed the function of integrated water resource management made the yearly average water table depth is 48 and 49 cm in 2018 and 2019, respectively. The range water table is between 31cm to 72 cm due to season variability and crop requirement. Consequently, the rate of annual subsidence is averaging at 1.7 cm with cumulative subsidence in 32 yr is 54.1 cm. Since the water never drained since the establishment, the subsidence rate of the first five years is averaging only at 3.3 cm yr–1. Low subsidence rates minimize annual carbon loss during the peatland utilization around (30 to 200) Mg CO2 ha–1 yr–1. In 32 yr, the water management in peatland utilization in Pulau Burung has prevented 2 000 Mg CO2 ha–1 to 4 925 Mg CO2 ha–1 loss compared to other cultivated areas in peatland. Further, this paper discusses the practice that resulted in low emission of coconut agriculture in Pulau Burung as one of sustainability dimensions, which support the other sustainability aspects, that is the thriving local livelihood.

scholarly journals Seasonal forecasts of the Saharan heat low characteristics: a multi-model assessment

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 893-912
Author(s):  
Cedric G. Ngoungue Langue ◽  
Christophe Lavaysse ◽  
Mathieu Vrac ◽  
Philippe Peyrillé ◽  
Cyrille Flamant
Keyword(s):  
West African Monsoon ◽  
Seasonal Forecast ◽  
Lead Times ◽  
Model Assessment ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Modes Of Variability ◽  
Forecast Models ◽  
Sahel Region ◽  
Heat Low

Abstract. The Saharan heat low (SHL) is a key component of the West African Monsoon system at the synoptic scale and a driver of summertime precipitation over the Sahel region. Therefore, accurate seasonal precipitation forecasts rely in part on a proper representation of the SHL characteristics in seasonal forecast models. This is investigated using the latest versions of two seasonal forecast systems namely the SEAS5 and MF7 systems from the European Center of Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Météo-France respectively. The SHL characteristics in the seasonal forecast models are assessed based on a comparison with the fifth ECMWF Reanalysis (ERA5) for the period 1993–2016. The analysis of the modes of variability shows that the seasonal forecast models have issues with the timing and the intensity of the SHL pulsations when compared to ERA5. SEAS5 and MF7 show a cool bias centered on the Sahara and a warm bias located in the eastern part of the Sahara respectively. Both models tend to underestimate the interannual variability in the SHL. Large discrepancies are found in the representation of extremes SHL events in the seasonal forecast models. These results are not linked to our choice of ERA5 as a reference, for we show robust coherence and high correlation between ERA5 and the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA). The use of statistical bias correction methods significantly reduces the bias in the seasonal forecast models and improves the yearly distribution of the SHL and the forecast scores. The results highlight the capacity of the models to represent the intraseasonal pulsations (the so-called east–west phases) of the SHL. We notice an overestimation of the occurrence of the SHL east phases in the models (SEAS5, MF7), while the SHL west phases are much better represented in MF7. In spite of an improvement in prediction score, the SHL-related forecast skills of the seasonal forecast models remain weak for specific variations for lead times beyond 1 month, requiring some adaptations. Moreover, the models show predictive skills at an intraseasonal timescale for shorter lead times.

Scope/need of soft path water resource management in developing countries

2007 ◽  
Vol 7 (5-6) ◽  
pp. 185-192 ◽  
Author(s):  
M.T. Amin ◽  
M. Han
Keyword(s):  
Water Management ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Resource Management ◽  
Water Resource ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Rainwater Harvesting ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Efficient Technology ◽  
Environmentally Sound

The goal of this paper is to identify the major outlines of innovative, integrated and decentralized water management practices, training, research, and development needs in various aspects of soft path water resource management in developing countries of Asia. The decentralized water strategies including science, regulations, training, government policies, and funding for some of the developing countries in Asian region are reviewed. There are two primary ways or paths of meeting water-related needs; one the “hard” path, and the other “soft” path that complements mainly decentralized and open decision-making, application of efficient technology, and environmental protection. One of the soft path decentralized solution being implemented in many developing countries of Asia is small scale rainwater harvesting and management and both government and non-government sectors are promoting the practice on a regional community and family basis. Overall, the paper aims to contribute to the ongoing development of environmentally sound and economically viable approaches to water management in the developing world.

scholarly journals Do CFSv2 Seasonal Forecasts Help Improve the Forecast of Meteorological Drought over Mainland China?

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (7) ◽  
pp. 2010
Author(s):  
Yang Lang ◽  
Lifeng Luo ◽  
Aizhong Ye ◽  
Qingyun Duan
Keyword(s):  
Mainland China ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Lead Times ◽  
Climate Forecast ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Dynamical Models ◽  
Standard Precipitation Index ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
Climate Forecast System ◽  
Drought Prediction

Seasonal forecasts from dynamical models are expected to be useful for drought predictions in many regions. This study investigated the usefulness of the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) in improving meteorological drought prediction in China based on its 25-year reforecast. The six-month standard precipitation index (SPI6) was used as the drought indicator, and its persistence forecast served as the benchmark against which CFSv2 forecasts were evaluated. The analysis found that the SPI6 persistence forecast shows good skills in all regions at short lead times, and CFSv2 forecast can further improve those skills in most regions. The improvement is particularly pronounced at longer lead times and over the humid regions in the southeast. This study also examined the seasonality and regionality of persistence forecast skills and CFSv2 contributions, and reveals regions where CFSv2 forecast shows no or sometimes even negative contributions.

scholarly journals Toward Identifying Subseasonal Forecasts of Opportunity Using North American Weather Regimes

2020 ◽  
Vol 148 (5) ◽  
pp. 1861-1875
Author(s):  
Andrew W. Robertson ◽  
Nicolas Vigaud ◽  
Jing Yuan ◽  
Michael K. Tippett
Keyword(s):  
North American ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Geopotential Height ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Lead Times ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
The North ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Graphical Tool

Abstract Large-scale atmospheric circulation regime structures are used to diagnose subseasonal forecasts of wintertime geopotential height fields over the North American sector, from the NCEP CFSv2 model. Four large-scale daily circulation regimes derived from reanalysis 500-hPa geopotential height data using K-means clustering are used as a low-dimensional basis for diagnosing the model’s forecasts up to 45 days ahead. On average, hindcast skill in regime space is found to be limited to 10–15 days ahead, in terms of anomaly correlation of 5-day averages of regime counts, over the 1999–2010 period. However, skill up to 30 days ahead is identified in individual winters, and intraseasonal episodes of high skill are identified using a forecast-evolution graphical tool. A striking vacillation between the West Coast and Pacific ridge patterns during December–January 2008/09 is shown to be predicted 20–25 days in advance, illustrating the possibility to identify “forecasts of opportunity” when subseasonal forecast skill is much higher than the average. The forecast-evolution tool also provides insight into the poor seasonal forecasts of California precipitation by operational centers during the 2015/16 El Niño winter. The Pacific trough regime is shown to be greatly overpredicted beyond 1–2 weeks in advance during the 2015/16 winter, with weather-scale features dominating the forecast evolution at shorter lead times. A similar though less extreme situation took place during the weaker El Niño of 2009/10, with the Pacific trough overforecast at S2S lead times.

scholarly journals Integrated water resource management for mega city: a case study of Dhaka city, Bangladesh / Zintegrowane zarządzanie zasobami wodnymi dużych miast: przykład miasta Dakka w Bangladeszu

2013 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 39-45 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nasir Hossain ◽  
Khalid Md. Bahauddin
Keyword(s):  
Water Management ◽  
Resource Management ◽  
Human Resource Development ◽  
Water Resource ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Rainwater Harvesting ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Integrated Water Resource Management ◽  
Ground Water Recharge ◽  
Daunting Task

Abstract Dhaka the capital of Bangladesh is facing a serious water scarcity problem due to the big gap between demand and supply of water system. When accelerating water scarcities and pollution in and around urban centers are superimposed on issues like continuing urbanization, lack of investment funds for constructing and maintaining water infrastructures, high public debts, inefficient resources allocation processes, inadequate management capacities, poor governance, inappropriate institutional frameworks and inadequate legal and regulatory regimes, water management in the megacities poses a daunting task in the future. To overcome these water related problems, water can be a designing element for structuring future development with the combination of sustainable approaches for social and physical transformation, open up opportunities for water management system. Therefore an integrated approach like integrated water resource management (IWRM) system is required that responds to problems that are all interrelated. Alternate supply and demand management tools such as ground water recharge, rainwater harvesting, effective water pricing, reclaimed water use are suggested to meet the deficit of current supply system through the efficient use of the scarce resources available. Institutional reform and improved water planning are required to facilitate economic growth and social development. Finally, human resource development is identified as key factor for the sustainable effective management of this valuable resource.

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