scholarly journals An extreme sea level indicator for the contiguous United States coastline

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Md. Mamunur Rashid ◽  
Thomas Wahl ◽  
Don P. Chambers ◽  
Francisco M. Calafat ◽  
William V. Sweet
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Level Indicator ◽  
Relative Contribution ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Water Level Data ◽  
The Individual

AbstractWe develop an aggregated extreme sea level (ESL) indicator for the contiguous United States coastline, which is comprised of separate indicators for mean sea level (MSL) and storm surge climatology (SSC). We use water level data from tide gauges to estimate interannual to multi-decadal variability of MSL and SSC and identify coastline stretches where the observed changes are coherent. Both the MSL and SSC indicators show significant fluctuations. Indicators of the individual components are combined with multi-year tidal contributions into aggregated ESL indicators. The relative contribution of the different components varies considerably in time and space. Our results highlight the important role of interannual to multi-decadal variability in different sea level components in exacerbating, or reducing, the impacts of long-term MSL rise over time scales relevant for coastal planning and management. Regularly updating the proposed indicator will allow tracking changes in ESL posing a threat to many coastal communities, including the identification of periods where the likelihood of flooding is particularly large or small.

scholarly journals LONG-TERM VARIABILITY OF TIDAL AND MEAN SEA LEVEL COMPONENTS ON THE BRAZILIAN COAST

2013 ◽  
Vol 31 (5) ◽  
pp. 49 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joseph Harari ◽  
Carlos Augusto De Sampaio França ◽  
Ricardo De Camargo
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
The Other ◽  
Brazilian Coast ◽  
Decadal Time Scale ◽  
Mean Sea Level ◽  
Level Data ◽  
The World ◽  
The Mean

ABSTRACT. Recovery and analysis of sea level data from the ports of Belém, Recife, Santos and Cananeia, Brazil, in a decadal time scale, allow determining the seasonal, annual and decadal variability of mean sea level and tidal components, such as M2 and S 2, which are associated to a probably local phenomena not yet clearly understood and established. On the other hand, trending values of (relative) mean sea level of these ports agree with the variability observed up to now in several ports around the world; the mean sea level trend in Cananeia, about 40 cm/century, may be occurring along the entire Brazilian Coast. Keywords: Brazilian coast, relative mean sea level, tidal components, decadal trends, Belém, Recife, Santos, Cananeia. RESUMO. A recuperação e análise de dados de niveldo mar dos portos de Belém, Recife, Santos e Cananeia, Brasil, em escala de tempo decadal, permitem determinar variabilidades sazonais, anuais e decadais do nível médio do mar e das componentes de maré, como M 2 e S 2, as quais são associadas a fenômenos, provavelmente locais, ainda não claramente entendidos e estabelecidos. Por outro lado, os valores das tendências de variações do nível médio (relativo) do mar de longo termo desses portos estão em consonância com as variabilidades até agora registradas em vários portos em todo o mundo; a tendência do nível médio do mar no porto de Cananeia, com cerca de 40 cm/século, pode estar ocorrendo em toda costa brasileira. Palavras-chave: costa brasileira, nível médio relativo do mar, componentes de maré, tendências decadais, Belém, Recife, Santos, Cananeia.

The Artist as Environmentalist: Ansel Adams, Policy Entrepreneurship, and the Growth of Environmentalism

Public Voices ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 9
Author(s):  
John C. Morris
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Policy Process ◽  
The United States ◽  
Policy Entrepreneur ◽  
Policy Entrepreneurship ◽  
Ansel Adams

The role of the policy entrepreneur in the policy process forms an integral part of our understanding of the formulation and implementation of policy in the United States. For all its theoretical importance, however, little work has been done to develop or test the propositions of entrepreneurship offered by Kingdon (1984). By examining the life of Ansel Adams (1902-1984), this paper explores more fully the concept of policy entrepreneurship and seeks to develop a more robust concept that accounts for the long-term, diffuse series of activities that precede Kingdon’s “stream coupling” in the policy process. The analysis suggests that such an approach offers some promise for capturing a broader spectrum of policy activity.

The Acceptance of Party Unity in Parliamentary Democracies

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
David M. Willumsen
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Costs And Benefits ◽  
Parliamentary Democracies ◽  
Survey Questions ◽  
Ideal Policy ◽  
Central Argument ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Policy Incentives

The central argument of this book is that voting unity in European legislatures is not primarily the result of the ‘disciplining’ power of the leadership of parliamentary parties, but rather the result of a combination of ideological homogeneity through self-selection into political parties and the calculations of individual legislators about their own long-term benefits. Despite the central role of policy preferences in the subsequent behaviour of legislators, preferences at the level of the individual legislator have been almost entirely neglected in the study of parliaments and legislative behaviour. The book measures these using an until now under-utilized resource: parliamentary surveys. Building on these, the book develops measures of policy incentives of legislators to dissent from their parliamentary parties, and show that preference similarity amongst legislators explains a very substantial proportion of party unity, yet alone cannot explain all of it. Analysing the attitudes of legislators to the demands of party unity, and what drives these attitudes, the book argues that what explains the observed unity (beyond what preference similarity would explain) is the conscious acceptance by MPs that the long-term benefits of belonging to a united party (such as increased influence on legislation, lower transaction costs, and better chances of gaining office) outweigh the short-terms benefits of always voting for their ideal policy outcome. The book buttresses this argument through the analysis of both open-ended survey questions as well as survey questions on the costs and benefits of belonging to a political party in a legislature.

Intraseasonal to decadal variability of Rossby wave packet properties

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Georgios Fragkoulidis ◽  
Volkmar Wirth
Keyword(s):  
Rossby Wave ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Phase Speed ◽  
Diagnostic Methods ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Ongoing Work ◽  
Large Scale Flow

<p>The large-scale extratropical upper-tropospheric flow tends to organize itself into eastward-propagating Rossby wave packets (RWPs). Investigating the spatiotemporal evolution of RWPs and the underlying physical processes has been beneficial in showcasing the role of the upper-tropospheric flow in temperature and precipitation extremes. The use of recently developed diagnostics of local in space and time wave properties has provided further insight in this regard. Motivated by the above, these diagnostic methods are now being employed to investigate the intraseasonal to decadal variability of key RWP properties such as their amplitude, phase speed, and group velocity in reanalysis datasets. It is shown that these properties exhibit a distinct seasonal and interregional variability, while interesting patterns thereof emerge. Moreover, the interannual and long-term variability in these RWP properties is explored and significant decadal trends for specific regions and seasons are highlighted. Ongoing work aims at further utilizing the presented diagnostics and analyses toward an improved understanding of the extratropical large-scale flow variability from weather to climate time scales.</p>

Planning or Improvisation

2020 ◽  
pp. 116-120
Author(s):  
Alasdair Roberts
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
The United States ◽  
Unintended Consequences ◽  
Governance Strategies ◽  
The Face ◽  
Imperfect Knowledge

This chapter assesses the role of planning in the design of governance strategies. Enthusiasm for large-scale planning—also known as overall, comprehensive, long-term, economic, or social planning—boomed and collapsed in twentieth century. At the start of that century, progressive reformers seized on planning as the remedy for the United States' social and economic woes. By the end of the twentieth century, enthusiasm for large-scale planning had collapsed. Plans could be made, but they were unlikely to be obeyed, and even if they were obeyed, they were unlikely to work as predicted. The chapter then explains that leaders should make plans while being realistic about the limits of planning. It is necessary to exercise foresight, set priorities, and design policies that seem likely to accomplish those priorities. Simply by doing this, leaders encourage coordination among individuals and businesses, through conversation about goals and tactics. Neither is imperfect knowledge a total barrier to planning. There is no “law” of unintended consequences: it is not inevitable that government actions will produce entirely unexpected results. The more appropriate stance is modesty about what is known and what can be achieved. Plans that launch big schemes on brittle assumptions are more likely to fail. Plans that proceed more tentatively, that allow room for testing, learning, and adjustment, are less likely to collapse in the face of unexpected results.

scholarly journals Detection and Characterization of Meteotsunamis in the Gulf of Genoa

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (8) ◽  
pp. 275 ◽  
Author(s):  
Picco ◽  
Schiano ◽  
Incardone ◽  
Repetti ◽  
Demarte ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Atmospheric Pressure ◽  
Tidal Elevation ◽  
Port Management ◽  
Time Frequency ◽  
Abrupt Jump ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Work Planning

A long-term time series of high-frequency sampled sea-level data collected in the port of Genoa were analyzed to detect the occurrence of meteotsunami events and to characterize them. Time-frequency analysis showed well-developed energy peaks on a 26–30 minute band, which are an almost permanent feature in the analyzed signal. The amplitude of these waves is generally few centimeters but, in some cases, they can reach values comparable or even greater than the local tidal elevation. In the perspective of sea-level rise, their assessment can be relevant for sound coastal work planning and port management. Events having the highest energy were selected for detailed analysis and the main features were identified and characterized by means of wavelet transform. The most important one occurred on 14 October 2016, when the oscillations, generated by an abrupt jump in the atmospheric pressure, achieved a maximum wave height of 50 cm and lasted for about three hours.

Cognition in construction grammar: Connecting individual and community grammars

2020 ◽  
Vol 31 (2) ◽  
pp. 309-337
Author(s):  
Lynn Anthonissen
Keyword(s):  
Language Change ◽  
Linguistic Knowledge ◽  
Small Individual ◽  
Age Cohorts ◽  
Term Change ◽  
Language User ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Linguistic Behavior

AbstractThis paper examines, on the basis of a longitudinal corpus of 50 early modern authors, how change at the aggregate level of the community interacts with variation and change at the micro-level of the individual language user. In doing so, this study aims to address the methodological gap between collective change and entrenchment, that is, the gap between language as a social phenomenon and the cognitive processes responsible for the continuous reorganization of linguistic knowledge in individual speakers. Taking up the case of the prepositional passive, this study documents a strong community-wide increase in use that is accompanied by increasing schematicity. A comparison of the 50 authors reveals that regularities arising at the macro-level conceal highly complex and variable individual behavior, aspects of which may be explained by studying the larger (social) context in which these individuals operate (e. g., age cohorts, community of practice, biographical insights). Further analysis, focusing on how authors use the prepositional passive in unique and similar ways, elucidates the role of small individual biases in long-term change. Overall, it is demonstrated that language change is an emergent phenomenon that results from the complex interaction between individual speakers, who themselves may change their linguistic behavior to varying degrees.

scholarly journals Changing storminess? An analysis of long-term sea level data sets

1999 ◽  
Vol 11 ◽  
pp. 161-172 ◽  
Author(s):  
W Bijl ◽  
R Flather ◽  
JG de Ronde ◽  
T Schmith
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Level Data

On the Issues Surrounding Economic Voting

1987 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-33 ◽  
Author(s):  
JOHN R. HIBBING
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Economic Voting ◽  
The United States ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Election Results ◽  
The Individual

This is an analysis of the effects of economic factors on voting behavior in the United Kingdom. Aggregate- and individual-level data are used. When the results are compared to findings generated by the United States case, some intriguing differences appear. To mention just two examples, unemployment and inflation seem to be much more important in the United Kingdom than in the United States, and changes in real per capita income are positively related to election results in the United States and negatively related in the United Kingdom. More generally, while the aggregate results are strong and the individual-level results weak in the United States, in the United Kingdom the situation is practically reversed.

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