scholarly journals Highlighting the impact of social relationships on the propagation of respiratory viruses using percolation theory

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jean-François Mathiot ◽  
Laurent Gerbaud ◽  
Vincent Breton
Keyword(s):  
Social Interactions ◽  
Social Relationships ◽  
Vaccination Campaign ◽  
Respiratory Viruses ◽  
Percolation Model ◽  
Human Populations ◽  
A Site ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Epidemic Wave ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

AbstractWe develop a site-bond percolation model, called PERCOVID, in order to describe the time evolution of all epidemics propagating through respiratory tract or by skin contacts in human populations. This model is based on a network of social relationships representing interconnected households experiencing governmental non-pharmaceutical interventions. As a very first testing ground, we apply our model to the understanding of the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic in France from December 2019 up to December 2021. Our model shows the impact of lockdowns and curfews, as well as the influence of the progressive vaccination campaign in order to keep COVID-19 pandemic under the percolation threshold. We illustrate the role played by social interactions by comparing two typical scenarios with low or high strengths of social relationships as compared to France during the first wave in March 2020. We investigate finally the role played by the α and δ variants in the evolution of the epidemic in France till autumn 2021, paying particular attention to the essential role played by the vaccination. Our model predicts that the rise of the epidemic observed in July and August 2021 would not result in a new major epidemic wave in France.

scholarly journals PERCOVID: A Model to Describe COVID Percolation on a Network of Social Relationships

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jean-Francois Mathiot ◽  
Laurent Gerbaud ◽  
Vincent J Breton
Keyword(s):  
Social Interactions ◽  
Social Relationships ◽  
Vaccination Campaign ◽  
Epidemiological Data ◽  
Human Populations ◽  
The Social ◽  
A Site ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions ◽  
Typical Scenario

We develop a site-bond percolation model, called PERCOVID, in order to describe the time evolution of COVID epidemics and more generally all epidemics propagating through respiratory tract in human populations. This model is based on a network of social relationships representing interconnected households experiencing governmental non-pharmaceutical interventions. The model successfully accounts for the COVID-19 epidemiological data in metropolitan France from December 2019 up to July 2021. Our model shows the impact of lockdowns and curfews, as well as the influence of the progressive vaccination campaign in order to keep COVID-19 pandemic under the percolation threshold. We illustrate the role played by the social interactions by comparing a typical scenario for the epidemic evolution in France, Germany and Italy during the first wave from January to May 2020. We investigate finally the role played by the alpha and delta variants in the evolution of the epidemic in France till autumn 2021, paying particular attention to the essential role played by the vaccination. Our model predicts that the rise of the epidemic observed in July 2021 will not result in a fourth major epidemic wave in France.

Human epigenetics prematurely born(e)?

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Wastell ◽  
Sue White
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Health Policy ◽  
Natural Disasters ◽  
Public Health Policy ◽  
Social Deprivation ◽  
Early Infancy ◽  
Human Populations ◽  
Thought Style ◽  
A Site ◽  
The Impact

This chapterr shifts the focus from animals to humans, and examines the extant literature on the human epigenome. It reviews seminal work on the impact of natural disasters (such as the Dutch Hunger Winter) on the epigenetic profile of those subject to these calamities. It describes how gestation and early infancy are reconfigured as a site of risk. It interrogates the nature of the claims made within the literature and also examines the thought style and presuppositions, particularly in those studies which seek to translate findings from laboratory to the clinic and public health policy. The small size of the effects on human populations is also highlighted, compared to other influences such as social deprivation.

scholarly journals Interactions among common non-SARS-CoV-2 respiratory viruses and influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on their circulation in New York City

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haokun Yuan ◽  
Alice Yeung ◽  
Wan Yang
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
New York City ◽  
York City ◽  
Cumulative Incidence ◽  
Respiratory Infections ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Vaccination Campaign ◽  
Respiratory Viruses ◽  
Syncytial Virus ◽  
The Impact

Background Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and voluntary behavioral changes during the COVID-19 pandemic have influenced the circulation of non-SARS-CoV-2 respiratory infections. We aimed to examine interactions among common non-SARS-CoV-2 respiratory virus and further estimate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on these viruses. Methods We analyzed incidence data for seven groups of respiratory viruses in New York City (NYC) during Oct 2015 - May 2021 (i.e., before and during the COVID-19 pandemic). We first used elastic net regression to identify potential virus interactions and further examined the robustness of the found interactions by comparing the performance of Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models with and without the interactions. We then used the models to compute counterfactual estimates of cumulative incidence and estimate the reduction during the COVID-19 pandemic period from March 2020 to May 2021, for each virus. Results We identified potential interactions for three endemic human coronaviruses (CoV-NL63, CoV-HKU, and CoV-OC43), parainfluenza (PIV)-1, rhinovirus, and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). We found significant reductions (by ~70-90%) in cumulative incidence of CoV-OC43, CoV-229E, human metapneumovirus, PIV-2, PIV-4, RSV, and influenza virus during the COVID-19 pandemic. In contrast, the circulation of adenovirus and rhinovirus was less affected. Conclusions Circulation of several respiratory viruses has been low during the COVID-19 pandemic, which may lead to increased population susceptibility. It is thus important to enhance monitoring of these viruses and promptly enact measures to mitigate their health impacts (e.g., influenza vaccination campaign and hospital infection prevention) in the coming months.

scholarly journals Development and Complex Dynamics at School Environment

Complexity ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Miguel Angel Fuentes ◽  
Juan Pablo Cárdenas ◽  
Natalia Carro ◽  
Mariana Lozada
Keyword(s):  
Social Interactions ◽  
Social Relationships ◽  
Behavioral Plasticity ◽  
School Context ◽  
Intervention Group ◽  
Positive Interactions ◽  
Control Group ◽  
Post Intervention ◽  
Quantitative Evidence ◽  
The Impact

In this work we use complex systems methodologies to analyze quantitatively the impact of an intervention involving cooperative and self-awareness activities on social interactions in children. The aim of this study is to evaluate behavioral plasticity of social relationships between peers in 6-7 year-olds who participated in the intervention conducted in a school context. The intervention consisted of 8 one-hour long sessions comprising mindfulness-based practices, collaborative activities that required cooperation, and perspective-taking instances in which children shared feelings, perceptions, and needs felt during the activities. We used complex network and game theory to evaluate pre-post-intervention variations. Social relationship was analyzed with a sociogram in both the intervention group and a control group which continued with regular classes. By means of the sociometric questionnaire we asked each child to mention which classmates he/she would choose as playmates and which he/she would not. Changes in the number of peers selected and rejected reflected changes in the pattern of social relationships pre-post-intervention. Our findings show that participating in the intervention positively modulated social interactions since we found an increase in the diversity and quality of positive links and a reduction in negative ones; a higher level of integration, indicated by enhanced positive networks where children with many positive connections tended to connect with those with few links; and more positive interactions between genders. These findings were not observed in the control group. Through the use of the mentioned methodologies, the current investigation provides new quantitative evidence of social network plasticity in children, an important topic which, to our knowledge, has been little studied. Results from this work indicate that positive transformations in social relationships can be fostered through the performance of this kind of intervention.

scholarly journals Rates of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and vaccination impact the fate of vaccine-resistant strains

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Simon A. Rella ◽  
Yuliya A. Kulikova ◽  
Emmanouil T. Dermitzakis ◽  
Fyodor A. Kondrashov
Keyword(s):  
Resistant Strain ◽  
Stochastic Dynamics ◽  
Vaccination Campaign ◽  
Social Consequences ◽  
Intervention Measures ◽  
Current Vaccine ◽  
Transmission Reduction ◽  
Resistant Strains ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

AbstractVaccines are thought to be the best available solution for controlling the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. However, the emergence of vaccine-resistant strains may come too rapidly for current vaccine developments to alleviate the health, economic and social consequences of the pandemic. To quantify and characterize the risk of such a scenario, we created a SIR-derived model with initial stochastic dynamics of the vaccine-resistant strain to study the probability of its emergence and establishment. Using parameters realistically resembling SARS-CoV-2 transmission, we model a wave-like pattern of the pandemic and consider the impact of the rate of vaccination and the strength of non-pharmaceutical intervention measures on the probability of emergence of a resistant strain. As expected, we found that a fast rate of vaccination decreases the probability of emergence of a resistant strain. Counterintuitively, when a relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions happened at a time when most individuals of the population have already been vaccinated the probability of emergence of a resistant strain was greatly increased. Consequently, we show that a period of transmission reduction close to the end of the vaccination campaign can substantially reduce the probability of resistant strain establishment. Our results suggest that policymakers and individuals should consider maintaining non-pharmaceutical interventions and transmission-reducing behaviours throughout the entire vaccination period.

scholarly journals The Impact of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on the First COVID-19 Epidemic Wave in South Africa

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thabo Mabuka ◽  
Nesisa Ncube ◽  
Michael Ross ◽  
Andrea Silaji ◽  
Willie Macharia ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
South African ◽  
African Population ◽  
South African Population ◽  
Seir Model ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Epidemic Wave ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions ◽  
Excess Deaths

On the 5th of March 2020, South Africa reported its first cases of COVID-19. This signalled the onset of the first COVID-19 epidemic wave in South Africa. The response by the Government of South Africa to the COVID-19 epidemic in South Africa was the use of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). In this study, a semi-reactive COVID-19 model, the ARI COVID-19 SEIR model, was used to investigate the impact of NPIs in South Africa to understand their effectiveness in the reduction of COVID-19 transmission in the South African population. This study also investigated the COVID-19 testing, reporting, hospitalised cases and excess deaths in the first COVID-19 epidemic wave in South Africa.

scholarly journals Impact of vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions on SARS-CoV-2 dynamics in Switzerland

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew J. Shattock ◽  
Epke A. Le Rutte ◽  
Robert P Duenner ◽  
Swapnoleena Sen ◽  
Sherrie L Kelly ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Vaccination Coverage ◽  
Vaccination Campaign ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Morbidity And Mortality ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Third Wave ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

As vaccination coverage against SARS-CoV-2 increases amidst the emergence and spread of more infectious and potentially more deadly viral variants, decisions on timing and extent of relaxing effective, but unsustainable, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) need to be made. An individual-based transmission model of SARS-CoV-2 dynamics, OpenCOVID, was developed to compare the impact of various vaccination and NPI strategies on the COVID-19 epidemic in Switzerland. We estimate that any relaxation of NPIs in March 2021 will lead to increasing cases, hospitalisations, and deaths resulting in a "third wave" in spring and into summer 2021. However, we find a cautious phased relaxation can substantially reduce population-level morbidity and mortality. We find that faster vaccination campaign can offset the size of such a wave, allowing more flexibility for NPI to be relaxed sooner. Our sensitivity analysis revealed that model results are particularly sensitive to the infectiousness of variant B.1.1.7.

scholarly journals What pushed Israel out of herd immunity? Modeling COVID-19 spread of Delta and Waning immunity

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hilla De-Leon ◽  
Dvir Aran
Keyword(s):  
Dynamic Model ◽  
Vaccination Campaign ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Aggregate Data ◽  
Spatial Dynamic ◽  
Waning Immunity ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

Following a successful vaccination campaign at the beginning of 2021 in Israel, where approximately 60% of the population were vaccinated with an mRNA BNT162b2 vaccine, it seemed that Israel had crossed the herd immunity threshold (HIT). Nonetheless, Israel has seen a steady rise in COVID-19 morbidity since June 2021, reaching over 1,000 cases per million by August. This outbreak is attributed to several events that came together: the temporal decline of the vaccine's efficacy (VE); lower efficacy of the vaccine against the current Delta (B.1.617.2) variant; highly infectiousness of Delta; and temporary halt of mandated NPIs (non-pharmaceutical interventions) or any combination of the above. Using a novel spatial-dynamic model and recent aggregate data from Israel, we examine the extent of the impact of the Delta variant on morbidity and whether it can solely explain the outbreak. We conclude that both Delta infectiousness and waning immunity could have been able to push Israel above the HIT independently, and thus, to mitigate the outbreak effective NPIs are required. Our analysis cautions countries that once vaccines' will wane a highly infectious spread is expected, and therefore, the expected decline in the vaccine's effectiveness in those countries should be accompanied by another vaccination campaign and effective NPIs

Fictive Fathers in the Field

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 265-273
Author(s):  
Katrina Daly Thompson
Keyword(s):  
Cultural Studies ◽  
Ethnographic Research ◽  
A Site ◽  
The Impact

Through my own narrative about my relationship with my fictive father in Zanzibar and the impact of this relationship on my research, in this autoethnographic essay I explore three themes: fictiveness, fatherhood, and the field. These themes tie together different aspects of the term “patriography,” linking them to ethnography and its subgenre autoethnography. Drawing on the term “patriography” as the science or study of fathers, I use the concept of “the field” to examine the impact of narratives about fathers on not only the field as a site of ethnographic research but also on the field of African cultural studies.

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