scholarly journals Research on Railway Freight Volume Prediction Based on Neural Network

2020 ◽  
Vol 143 ◽  
pp. 01050 ◽  
Author(s):  
Can Yang ◽  
Xuemei Li
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Influencing Factors ◽  
Prediction Accuracy ◽  
Transportation Network ◽  
Market Demand ◽  
Investment Planning ◽  
Important Indicator ◽  
Railway Freight ◽  
Freight Volume

Railway freight volume is an important part of the total social freight volume and an important indicator of the national economy. Scientific prediction of railway freight volume can provide decision support for the formulation of China's railway policy and railway investment planning, and is of great significance for adjusting transportation structure and building an efficient transportation network. In order to improve the prediction accuracy, this paper constructs a combined prediction model based on GRA-GABP. The model uses grey correlation analysis to screen out the key influencing factors of railway freight volume, and optimizes the weight and threshold of BP neural network based on genetic algorithm to improve the prediction accuracy. This paper comprehensively considers the influencing factors of macroeconomics, market demand, logistics competition and railway supply. The historical data of railway freight transport from 1978 to 2018 is selected for case analysis. The results show that the prediction accuracy of the GRA-GA-BP based combination prediction model is significantly improved and can be used as an effective tool for railway freight volume forecasting.

Prediction Models for Railway Freight Volume Based on Artificial Neural Networks

2014 ◽  
Vol 543-547 ◽  
pp. 2093-2098 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yan Sun ◽  
Mao Xiang Lang ◽  
Dan Zhu Wang ◽  
Lin Yun Liu
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Network Model ◽  
Neural Network Model ◽  
Prediction Accuracy ◽  
Freight Transport ◽  
Generalized Regression Neural Network ◽  
Railway Freight ◽  
Freight Volume ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Generalized Regression

The current China railway freight transport has always been faced with the situation of limited transport resources. Many relative studies have been done to solve the problem of resource shortage. And railway freight volume prediction is the basis of all these studies. With accurate volume prediction, railway freight transport administrations can precisely allocate the transport resources, such as wagons and locomotives. In order to overcome the limitations of traditional prediction methods, in this study, we design four artificial neural network models for prediction, including BP neural network model, linear neural network model, RBF neural network model and generalized regression neural network model. The results of simulation and comparison show that all these models can reach high prediction accuracy and generalized regression neural network has both higher prediction accuracy and better curve fitting capacity compared with other models.

scholarly journals Prediction of the Deformation of Aluminum Alloy Drill Pipes in Thermal Assembly Based on a BP Neural Network

2022 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 757
Author(s):  
Xiaofeng Wang ◽  
Baochang Liu ◽  
Jiaqi Yun ◽  
Xueqi Wang ◽  
Haoliang Bai
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Aluminum Alloy ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Bp Neural Network ◽  
Prediction Accuracy ◽  
Thermal Deformation ◽  
Heating Temperature ◽  
Cooling Water ◽  
Interference Fit ◽  
Steel Joint

The connection between the steel joint and aluminum alloy pipe is the weak part of the aluminum alloy drill pipe. Practically, the interference connection between the aluminum alloy rod and the steel joint is usually realized by thermal assembly. In this paper, the relationship between the cooling water flow rate, initial heating temperature and the thermal deformation of the steel joint in interference thermal assembly was studied and predicted. Firstly, the temperature data of each measuring point of the steel joint were obtained by a thermal assembly experiment. Based on the theory of thermoelasticity, the analytical solution of the thermal deformation of the steel joint was studied. The temperature function was fitted by the least square method, and the calculated value of radial thermal deformation of the section was finally obtained. Based on the BP neural network algorithm, the thermal deformation of steel joint section was predicted. Besides, a prediction model was established, which was about the relationship between cooling water flow rate, initial heating temperature and interference. The magnitude of interference fit of steel joint was predicted. The magnitude of the interference fit of the steel joint was predicted. A polynomial model, exponential model and Gaussian model were adopted to predict the sectional deformation so as to compare and analyze the predictive performance of a BP neural network, among which the polynomial model was used to predict the magnitude of the interference fit. Through a comparative analysis of the fitting residual (RE) and sum of squares of the error (SSE), it can be known that a BP neural network has good prediction accuracy. The predicted results showed that the error of the prediction model increases with the increase of the heating temperature in the prediction model of the steel node interference and related factors. When the cooling water velocity hit 0.038 m/s, the prediction accuracy was the highest. The prediction error increases with the increase or decrease of the velocity. Especially when the velocity increases, the trend of error increasing became more obvious. The analysis shows that this method has better prediction accuracy.

Railway Freight Turnover Forecast Based on the BP Neural Network

2014 ◽  
Vol 536-537 ◽  
pp. 837-840
Author(s):  
Jiang Sun ◽  
Chong Wei
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Network Model ◽  
Neural Network Model ◽  
Bp Neural Network ◽  
Railway Freight ◽  
Bp Neural Network Model ◽  
Trained Network

A BP neural network model was employed to forecast the railway freight turnover. First, this paper analyses the data of railway freight turnover in China from 1998 to 2012, build a three layers BP neural network, then by training and learning, a well-trained network can be used for simulating and forecasting. Finally, predict by the Grey GM(1,1) model and well-trained BP neural network respectively, and compares the errors of two prediction model, the results show that predicting the railway freight turnover by BP neural network has higher precision.

scholarly journals RVLBPNN: A Workload Forecasting Model for Smart Cloud Computing

2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yao Lu ◽  
John Panneerselvam ◽  
Lu Liu ◽  
Yan Wu
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Cloud Computing ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Prediction Accuracy ◽  
Service Providers ◽  
Cloud Service ◽  
Backpropagation Neural Network ◽  
Environmental Implications ◽  
Cloud Service Providers ◽  
Cloud Workloads

Given the increasing deployments of Cloud datacentres and the excessive usage of server resources, their associated energy and environmental implications are also increasing at an alarming rate. Cloud service providers are under immense pressure to significantly reduce both such implications for promoting green computing. Maintaining the desired level of Quality of Service (QoS) without violating the Service Level Agreement (SLA), whilst attempting to reduce the usage of the datacentre resources is an obvious challenge for the Cloud service providers. Scaling the level of active server resources in accordance with the predicted incoming workloads is one possible way of reducing the undesirable energy consumption of the active resources without affecting the performance quality. To this end, this paper analyzes the dynamic characteristics of the Cloud workloads and defines a hierarchy for the latency sensitivity levels of the Cloud workloads. Further, a novel workload prediction model for energy efficient Cloud Computing is proposed, named RVLBPNN (Rand Variable Learning Rate Backpropagation Neural Network) based on BPNN (Backpropagation Neural Network) algorithm. Experiments evaluating the prediction accuracy of the proposed prediction model demonstrate that RVLBPNN achieves an improved prediction accuracy compared to the HMM and Naïve Bayes Classifier models by a considerable margin.

scholarly journals Combined Optimization Prediction Model of Regional Wind Power Based on Convolution Neural Network and Similar Days

Machines ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 80
Author(s):  
Yalong Li ◽  
Fan Yang ◽  
Wenting Zha ◽  
Licheng Yan
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Wind Power ◽  
Prediction Accuracy ◽  
Pearson Correlation ◽  
Combination Method ◽  
Random Fluctuation ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Model Based

With the continuous optimization of energy structures, wind power generation has become the dominant new energy source. The strong random fluctuation of natural wind will bring challenges to power system dispatching, so it is necessary to predict wind power. In order to improve the short-term prediction accuracy of regional wind power, this paper proposes a new combination prediction model based on convolutional neural network (CNN) and similar days analysis. Firstly, the least square fitting and batch normalization (BN) are used to preprocess the data, and then the recent historical wind power data set for CNN is established. Secondly, the Pearson correlation coefficient and cosine similarity combination method are utilized to find similar days in the long-term data set, and the prediction model based on similar days is constructed by the weighting method. Finally, based on the particle swarm optimization (PSO) method, a combined forecasting model is established. The results show that the combined model can accurately predict the future short-term wind power curve, and the prediction accuracy is improved to different extents compared to a single method.

scholarly journals Optimized Erosion Prediction with MAGA Algorithm Based on BP Neural Network for Submerged Low-Pressure Water Jet

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 2926
Author(s):  
Yanzhen Chen ◽  
Yihuai Hu ◽  
Shenglong Zhang ◽  
Xiaojun Mei ◽  
Qingguo Shi
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Genetic Algorithm ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Bp Neural Network ◽  
Prediction Accuracy ◽  
Water Jet ◽  
Erosion Prediction ◽  
Pressure Water ◽  
Erosion Test ◽  
Bp Model

In order to accurately predict the erosion effect of underwater cleaning with an angle nozzle under different working conditions, this paper uses refractory bricks to simulate marine fouling as the erosion target, and studies the optimized erosion prediction model by erosion test based on the submerged low-pressure water jet. The erosion test is conducted by orthogonal experimental design, and experimental data are used for the prediction model. By combining with statistical range and variance analysis methods, the jet pressure, impact time and jet angle are determined as three inputs of the prediction model, and erosion depth is the output index of the prediction model. A virtual data generation method is used to increase the amount of input data for the prediction model. This paper also proposes a Mind-evolved Advanced Genetic Algorithm (MAGA), which has a reliable optimization effect in the verification of four stand test functions. Then, the improved back-propagating (BP) neural network prediction models are established by respectively using Genetic Algorithm (GA) and MAGA optimization algorithms to optimize the initial thresholds and weights of the BP neural network. Compared to the prediction results of the BP and GA-BP models, the R2 of the MAGA-BP model is the highest, reaching 0.9954; the total error is reduced by 47.31% and 35.01%; the root mean square error decreases by 51.05% and 31.80%; and the maximum absolute percentage error decreases by 65.79% and 64.01%, respectively. The average prediction accuracy of the MAGA-BP model is controlled within 3%, which has been significantly improved. The results show that the prediction accuracy of the MAGA-BP prediction model is higher and more reliable, and the MAGA algorithm has a good optimization effect. This optimized erosion prediction method is feasible.

scholarly journals Research on Substation Project Cost Prediction Based on Sparrow Search Algorithm Optimized BP Neural Network

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (24) ◽  
pp. 13746
Author(s):  
Xiaomin Xu ◽  
Luyao Peng ◽  
Zhengsen Ji ◽  
Shipeng Zheng ◽  
Zhuxiao Tian ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Influencing Factors ◽  
Bp Neural Network ◽  
Prediction Accuracy ◽  
Search Algorithm ◽  
Power Grid ◽  
Engineering System ◽  
Project Cost ◽  
Total Investment ◽  
Engineering Cost

The prediction of power grid engineering cost is the basis of fine management of power grid engineering, and accurate prediction of substation engineering cost can effectively ensure the fine operation of engineering funds. With the continuous expansion of the engineering system, the influencing factors and data dimensions of substation project investment are gradually diversified and complex, which further increases the uncertainty and complexity of substation project cost. Based on the concept of substation engineering data space, this paper investigates the influencing factors and constructs the static total investment intelligent prediction model of substation engineering. The emerging swarm intelligence algorithm, sparrow search algorithm (SSA), is used to optimize the parameters of the BP neural network to improve the prediction accuracy and convergence speed of neural network. In order to test the validity of the model, an example analysis is carried out based on the data of a provincial substation project. It was found that the SSA-BP can effectively improve the prediction accuracy and provide new methods and approaches for practical application and research.

A Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network for Daily NO2 Concentration Forecasting

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 35-51
Author(s):  
Bingchun Liu ◽  
Xiaogang Yu ◽  
Qingshan Wang ◽  
Shijie Zhao ◽  
Lei Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Prediction Accuracy ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Optimal Prediction ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Long Short Term Memory ◽  
Concentration Prediction

NO2 pollution has caused serious impact on people's production and life, and the management task is very difficult. Accurate prediction of NO2 concentration is of great significance for air pollution management. In this paper, a NO2 concentration prediction model based on long short-term memory neural network (LSTM) is constructed with daily NO2 concentration in Beijing as the prediction target and atmospheric pollutants and meteorological factors as the input indicators. Firstly, the parameters and architecture of the model are adjusted to obtain the optimal prediction model. Secondly, three different sets of input indicators are built on the basis of the optimal prediction model to enter the model learning. Finally, the impact of different input indicators on the accuracy of the model is judged. The results show that the LSTM model has high application value in NO2 concentration prediction. The maximum temperature and O3 among the three input indicators improve the prediction accuracy while the NO2 historical low-frequency data reduce the prediction accuracy.

scholarly journals A Hybrid Model for Monthly Precipitation Time Series Forecasting Based on Variational Mode Decomposition with Extreme Learning Machine

Information ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (7) ◽  
pp. 177 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guohui Li ◽  
Xiao Ma ◽  
Hong Yang
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Hybrid Model ◽  
Prediction Accuracy ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Variational Mode Decomposition ◽  
Precipitation Time Series ◽  
Mode Decomposition ◽  
Learning Machine

The matter of success in forecasting precipitation is of great significance to flood control and drought relief, and water resources planning and management. For the nonlinear problem in forecasting precipitation time series, a hybrid prediction model based on variational mode decomposition (VMD) coupled with extreme learning machine (ELM) is proposed to reduce the difficulty in modeling monthly precipitation forecasting and improve the prediction accuracy. The monthly precipitation data in the past 60 years from Yan’an City and Huashan Mountain, Shaanxi Province, are used as cases to test this new hybrid model. First, the nonstationary monthly precipitation time series are decomposed into several relatively stable intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) by using VMD. Then, an ELM prediction model is established for each IMF. Next, the predicted values of these components are accumulated to obtain the final prediction results. Finally, three predictive indicators are adopted to measure the prediction accuracy of the proposed hybrid model, back propagation (BP) neural network, Elman neural network (Elman), ELM, and EMD-ELM models: mean absolute error (MAE), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The experimental simulation results show that the proposed hybrid model has higher prediction accuracy and can be used to predict the monthly precipitation time series.

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