Landscape ecological risk assessment and spatiotemporal change analysis in Yonghe County

On the basis of land use data, combined with ArcGIS and fragstats4.2, the landscape ecological risk spatial mode and process feature of Yonghe county from 1980 to 2018 were analyzed. The results showed that: (1) from 1980 to 2018, the landscape pattern of Yonghe county changed obviously, the area of arable land and holt decreased, while the area of grassland, water and buildings grow a number. The conversion area between arable land and grassland is the largest. In Yonghe County, the fragmentation degree of landscape is on the rise, and the separation degree is also on the rise. The overall dominance of construction land is the largest, and the dominance of grassland is the smallest. (2) The landscape ecological risk level gradually subsided, the area of middle risk area decreased, and moderate risk areas are falling. From the spatial distribution analysis, the risk types of Yonghe County subsided from southeast to northwest. The high-risk areas were principally scattered in sangbi town and Jiaokou township. The main landscape type in this area was grassland, which was easily disturbed by human activities; the low-risk areas were principally scattered in Potou Township in the north and Yonghe County in the middle of the study area, and Woodland and buildings are the main landscape types land have strong anti-interference ability and low risk value.

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Ecological risk assessment of geohazards in Natural World Heritage Sites: an empirical analysis of Bogda, Tianshan

Open Geosciences ◽

10.1515/geo-2019-0026 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 11 (1) ◽

pp. 327-340 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Qin Liu ◽

Zhaoping Yang ◽

Hui Shi ◽

Zhi Wang

Keyword(s):

Risk Assessment ◽

High Risk ◽

Ecological Risk ◽

Ecological Risk Assessment ◽

World Heritage ◽

Natural World ◽

Low Risk ◽

World Heritage Site ◽

Heritage Site ◽

Risk Areas

Abstract Ecological risk assessment plays an important role in avoiding disasters and reducing losses. Natural world heritage site is the most precious natural assets on earth, yet few studies have assessed ecological risks from the perspective of world heritage conservation and management. A methodology for considering ecological threats and vulnerabilities and focusing on heritage value was introduced and discussed for the Bogda component of the Xinjiang Tianshan Natural World Heritage Site. Three important results are presented. (1) Criteria layers and ecological risk showed obvious spatial heterogeneity. Extremely high-risk and high-risk areas, accounting for 13.60% and 32.56%, respectively, were mainly gathered at Tianchi Lake and Bogda Glacier, whereas the extremely low-risk and low-risk areas, covering 1.33% and 17.51% of the site,were mainly distributed to the north and scattered around in the southwest montane region. (2) The level of risk was positively correlated with the type of risk, and as the level of risk increases, the types of risk increase. Only two risk types were observed in the extremely low-risk areas, whereas six risk types were observed in the high-risk areas and eight risk types were observed in the extremely high-risk areas. (3) From the perspective of risk probability and ecological damage, four risk management categories were proposed, and correlative strategies were proposed to reduce the possibility of ecological risk and to sustain or enhance heritage value.

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Exploring Variability in Landscape Ecological Risk and Quantifying Its Driving Factors in the Amu Darya Delta

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health ◽

10.3390/ijerph17010079 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 17 (1) ◽

pp. 79

Author(s):

Tao Yu ◽

Anming Bao ◽

Wenqiang Xu ◽

Hao Guo ◽

Liangliang Jiang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

High Risk ◽

Crop Yield ◽

Ecological Risk ◽

Risk Index ◽

Driving Factors ◽

Road Density ◽

Amu Darya ◽

Risk Areas ◽

Landscape Ecological ◽

Gwr Model

Examining the drivers of landscape ecological risk can provide scientific information for planning and landscape optimization. The landscapes of the Amu Darya Delta (ADD) have recently undergone great changes, leading to increases in landscape ecological risks. However, the relationships between landscape ecological risk and its driving factors are poorly understood. In this study, the ADD was selected to construct landscape ecological risk index (ERI) values for 2000 and 2015. Based on a geographically weighted regression (GWR) model, the relationship between each of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), land surface temperature (LST), digital elevation model (DEM), crop yield, population density (POP), and road density and the spatiotemporal variation in ERI were explored. The results showed that the ERI decreased from the periphery of the ADD to the centre and that high-risk areas were distributed in the ADD’s downstream region, with the total area of high-risk areas increasing by 86.55% from 2000 to 2015. The ERI was spatially correlated with Moran’s I in 2000 and 2015, with correlation of 0.67 and 0.72, respectively. The GWR model indicated that in most ADD areas, the NDVI had a negative impact on the ERI, whereas LST and DEM had positive impacts on the ERI. Crop yield, road density and POP were positively correlated with the ERI in the central region of the ADD, at road nodes and in densely populated urban areas, respectively. Based on the findings of this study, we suggest that the ecological constraints of the aforementioned factors should be considered in the process of delta development and protection.

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Landscape Ecological Risk Assessment under Multiple Indicators

Land ◽

10.3390/land10070739 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 10 (7) ◽

pp. 739

Author(s):

Xupu Li ◽

Shuangshuang Li ◽

Yufeng Zhang ◽

Patrick J. O’Connor ◽

Liwei Zhang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Risk Assessment ◽

Ecological Risk ◽

Ecological Risk Assessment ◽

Environmental Conservation ◽

Low Risk ◽

Anthropogenic Activity ◽

Qinling Mountains ◽

The South ◽

Rapid Urbanization ◽

Landscape Ecological

Rapid urbanization and intensification of human activities increases the risk of disturbance of ecological systems via multiple sources, with consequences for regional ecological security and health. Landscape ecological risk assessment (LERA) is an effective way to identify and allocate risk to resources. We used the north and south Qinling Mountain area as a case study to analyze the spatial heterogeneity of landscape ecological risk using a potential- connectedness-resilience three-dimensional (PCR 3D) framework based on an integrated and dynamic risk assessment concept from adaptive cycle theory. We explored factors driving the risks with a spatial model GeoDetector. The results show that the comprehensive landscape ecological risk was north–south polarized and dominated by low and moderate risk levels (90.13% of total risk) across the whole study area. The high-risk area was centered on the Weihe plain north of the Qinling Mountains (NQL), while low-risk areas accounted for 86.87% of the total area and were prevalent across the south of the study area. The areas with high potential and connectedness risks were centered in the Xi’an–Xianyang urban agglomeration and those with high-resilience risk were in the upper reaches of the Hanjiang River. The vast majority of the area to the south of the Qinling Mountains (SQL) is at low risk. In terms of driving forces, population density and vegetation coverage (NDVI) are the primary factors affecting landscape ecological risk. Our findings suggest that anthropogenic activity is the primary cause of landscape ecological risks in the study area and regional socioeconomic exploitation and environmental conservation need to be rebalanced to achieve sustainability for the social ecosystem. The PCR 3D LERA framework employed in this study can be used to inform landscape ecological health and security and to optimize socioeconomic progress at regional scales.

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Impacts of climate change on the agricultural zoning of climate risk for cotton cultivation in Brazil

Pesquisa Agropecuária Brasileira ◽

10.1590/s0100-204x2013000100001 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 48 (1) ◽

pp. 1-8 ◽

Cited By ~ 14

Author(s):

Eduardo Delgado Assad ◽

Susian Christian Martins ◽

Napoleão Esberard de Macêdo Beltrão ◽

Hilton Silveira Pinto

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Temperature Increase ◽

Northern Region ◽

Low Risk ◽

Cotton Production ◽

Risk Area ◽

Intergovernmental Panel ◽

Agricultural Zoning ◽

Risk Areas ◽

Brazilian Northeast

The objective of this work was to evaluate the effect of the temperature increase forecasted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on agricultural zoning of cotton production in Brazil. The Northeastern region showed the highest decrease in the low-risk area for cotton cultivation due to the projected temperature increase. This area in the Brazilian Northeast may decrease from 83 million ha in 2010 to approximately 71 million ha in 2040, which means 15% reduction in 30 years. Southeastern and Center-Western regions had small decrease in areas suitable for cotton production until 2040, while the Northern region showed no reduction in these areas. Temperature increase will not benefit cotton cultivation in Brazil because dimension of low-risk areas for economic cotton production may decrease.

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Application of Geographic Information Systems for Flood Risk Analysis: A Case Study from Accra Metropolitan Area

Present Environment and Sustainable Development ◽

10.2478/pesd-2019-0007 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 13 (1) ◽

pp. 81-97

Author(s):

Alex Barimah Owusu ◽

Mathias Agbozo

Keyword(s):

Flood Risk ◽

Drainage Density ◽

Low Risk ◽

Soil Drainage ◽

Risk Area ◽

The Public ◽

Risk Areas ◽

Risk Zones ◽

High Flood

Abstract The main objective of the study was to identify high flood risk zones in AMA. The study also used questionnaires to assess local knowledge on what accounts for the high flood risk in their community. Spatial analysis techniques were used to model flood risk based on the following contributory factors; land cover, soil, drainage density, topography and proximity to rivers. The results show that high flood risk areas covered 46.3km2(20%), moderate risk area, 72.9km2(31.6%), low risk area 41.5km2(18%) and very low risk areas, about 6.7km2(2.9%). The high flood risk zones were low-lying areas below 50 meters above sea level and closely associated with poor drainage systems. People perceived not just low-lying areas as a paramount reason accounting for flooding but also very bad waste disposal habit of the public. These offsets the efforts of waste management companies to keep drains free of refuse.

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Trends in coronary heart disease mortality and statin utilization in two European areas with different population risk levels: Stockholm and Sicily

International Cardiovascular Forum Journal ◽

10.17987/icfj.v1i3.39 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 1 (3) ◽

pp. 140 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

Federico Vancheri

Keyword(s):

Coronary Heart Disease ◽

Heart Disease ◽

High Risk ◽

Low Risk ◽

Blood Cholesterol ◽

Risk Level ◽

Coronary Risk Factors ◽

Coronary Risk ◽

Risk Area ◽

The Mean

Background and Aim: The reduction in coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality in Europe has been associated with a reduction in coronary risk factors, including dyslipidaemia. Statins reduce blood cholesterol levels and the risk of coronary events. Their utilization has substantially increased over the years. Although statins should be prescribed according to clinical guidelines, doctors’ decisions about treatment are usually made subjectively and are influenced by the population risk level. The aim of this study was to investigate the relation between the time trend of population risk level and statin utilization in two areas with different levels of coronary risk in the population. Methods: CHD mortality, as a proxy of population coronary risk level, and statin utilization trends in the period 2001-2011, were compared between a relatively high-risk CHD area, Stockholm county, and a low-risk area, Sicily. Results: There was a reduction in CHD mortality and an increase in statin utilization in both areas. The mean annual reduction in CHD mortality rate/100,000 was greater in Stockholm than in Sicily (-4.6, 95% CI -5.3 -4.0, and -1.9 95% CI -2.6 – 1.2, respectively). The mean annual increase in statin DDD/TID utilization was larger in Sicily than in Stockholm (5.1, 95% CI 4.8 – 5.3, and 3.7, 95% CI 3.2 – 4.1, respectively). In Stockholm the increase in statin use was mainly due to increased utilization of simvastatin, whereas it included a greater variety of statins in Sicily. Conclusion: The relations between time trends of CHD mortality and statin utilization in Stockholm and in Sicily were different. A larger increase in statins was observed in the low-risk area, associated with a slower reduction in CHD mortality, whereas a smaller increase in statins was observed in the high-risk area, associated with a greater reduction in CHD mortality. Other factors apart from the actual risk of the patients may explain these observations, such as differences in socioeconomic factors, adherence to treatment, policies of drug cost-containment, and population CHD risk profiles.

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Risiko Kepunahan Keanekaragaman Hayati di Taman Nasional Gunung Merapi: Tinjauan Spasial

Jurnal Ilmu Kehutanan ◽

10.22146/jik.10189 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 9 (2) ◽

pp. 75 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Hero Marhaento ◽

Lies Rahayu Wijayanti Faida

Keyword(s):

High Risk ◽

National Park ◽

Group Discussion ◽

Risk Level ◽

Risk Area ◽

Area Element ◽

Central Java ◽

Spatial Risk ◽

Element At Risk ◽

Risk Areas

Gunung Merapi merupakan habitat dari berbagai spesies khas pegunungan Jawa bagian tengah. Namun demikian, tingginya aktivitas vulkanik Gunung Merapi dan besarnya tekanan masyarakat terhadap kawasan menyebabkan keanekaragaman hayati di sekitar kawasan Gunung Merapi berisiko untuk punah. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk melakukan analisis spasial risiko kepunahan keanekaragaman hayati di Taman Nasional Gunung Merapi (TNGM). Analisis risiko dilakukan dengan mengukur komponen risiko, yaitu: kerawanan, elemen yang berisiko, dan kerentanan. Identifikasi komponen risiko dilakukan dengan melaksanakan grup diskusi terarah dengan staf Taman Nasional Gunung Merapi. Analisis risiko diukur menggunakan analisis spasial dengan perangkat lunak ArcGIS 10.1. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa kawasan Taman Nasional Gunung Merapi memiliki kawasan dengan tingkat risiko tinggi seluas 2185.6 ha (35,6%), risiko sedang seluas 3910,1 ha (63,6%), dan risiko rendah seluas 49,8 ha (0,8%). Wilayah yang berisiko tinggi berada di wilayah Resort Pengelolaan Taman Nasional (RPTN) Dukun Kabupaten Magelang, RPTN Turi-Pakem Kabupaten Sleman, dan RPTN Kemalang Kabupaten Klaten.Kata kunci: analisis risiko, keanekaragaman hayati, Taman Nasional Gunung Merapi, analisis spasial, vulkanik. Risk of biodiversity extinction in Gunung Merapi National Park : Spatial assessionAbstractThe Mount Merapi (MM) has a unique landscape and becomes the habitat for mountainous species in the central Java, Indonesia. However, high volcanic activities and massive public pressure on its natural resources have increased the risk of biodiversity extinction in the MM. This study aims to assess the spatial risk of biodiversity extinction in the Mount Merapi National Park (MMNP). The risk analysis has been done by spatially measuring the risk elements i.e. hazard area, element at risk, and vulnerability rate. A Focus Group Discussion has been done to define and to identify components of each risk element. A spatial analysis using ArcGIS 10.1 has been used to measure the risk. The results showed that MMNP have three levels of risks: high risk level area (2185.6 ha, 35. 6%), moderate risk area (3910.1 ha, 63.6%) and low risk area (49.8 ha, 0.8%). The high risk areas were located in Resort Pengelolaan Taman Nasional (RPTN) Dukun in Magelang Distict, RPTN Turi-Pakem in Sleman District, and RPTN Kemalang in Klaten District.

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Seroprevalence of SARS CoV-2 antibodies in healthcare workers and administration employees: a prospective surveillance study at a 1,400-bed university hospital in Germany

10.1101/2020.09.29.20203737 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Christina Bahrs ◽

Aurelia Kimmig ◽

Sebastian Weis ◽

Juliane Ankert ◽

Stefan Hagel ◽

...

Keyword(s):

High Risk ◽

Healthcare Workers ◽

Clinical Symptoms ◽

Low Risk ◽

University Hospital ◽

Intermediate Risk ◽

Prospective Surveillance ◽

Risk Area ◽

Additional Risk ◽

Risk Areas

Background: Healthcare workers (HCWs) are at particular risk to acquire SARS-CoV-2 infections. Aim: The objectives of this study were to compare SARS-CoV-2 IgG seroprevalence and compliance to wear personal protective equipment (PPE) between HCWs working within (high-risk) or outside (intermediate-risk) units treating suspected or confirmed COVID-19 patients. In addition, administration staff (low-risk) was included. Materials: Co-HCW is a prospective cohort study among employees at the Jena University Hospital, Germany. Since 16th March 2020, 50 SARS-CoV-2 inpatients and 73 outpatients were treated in our hospital. Mandatory masking was implemented on 20th March 2020. We here evaluated seroprevalence using two IgG detecting immunoassays, assessed COVID-19 exposure, clinical symptoms and compliance to wear PPE. Findings: Between 19th May and 19th June 2020 we analysed 660 employees [out of 3,228; 20.4%]. Eighteen participants (2.7%) had SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in at least one immunoassay. Among them, 13 (72.2%) were not aware of direct COVID-19 exposure and 9 (50.0%) did not report any clinical symptoms. We observed no evidence for an association between seroprevalence and risk area (high-risk: 2 of 137 HCWs (1.5%), intermediate-risk: 10 of 343 HCWs (2.9%), low-risk: 6 of 180 administration employees (3.3%); p=0.574). Reported compliance to wear PPE differed (p<0.001) between working in high-risk (98.3%) and in intermediate-risk areas (69.8%). Conclusion: No evidence for higher seroprevalence against SARS-CoV-2 in HCWs working in high-risk COVID-19 areas could be observed, probably due to high compliance to wear PPE. Compared to administration employees, we observed no additional risk to acquire SARS-CoV-2 infections by patient care.

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Assessing Vegetation Dynamics and Landscape Ecological Risk on the Mainstream of Tarim River, China

Water ◽

10.3390/w12082156 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (8) ◽

pp. 2156

Author(s):

Hui Zhang ◽

Lianqing Xue ◽

Guanghui Wei ◽

Zengchuan Dong ◽

Xianyong Meng

Keyword(s):

Ecological Risk ◽

Vegetation Index ◽

Risk Index ◽

Critical Role ◽

Vegetation Coverage ◽

Risk Level ◽

Tarim River ◽

Tarim River Basin ◽

The Tarim River ◽

Landscape Ecological

The Tarim River (TR), the longest inland river at an arid area in China, plays a critical role in the sustainable development of the regional ecological environment. This study presents the spatial-temporal variations in the vegetation coverage at regional and pixel scales and its driving factors on the TR mainstream. The latest dataset of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and a vegetation coverage index (fc) over the period from 2000–2015 were analyzed with the unary linear regression and the partial correlation. On the basis of land use data, we further built the landscape ecological risk index and assessed the ecological risk level of the mainstream. Our results suggest that the vegetation coverage index demonstrated fluctuations but denoted a generally upward trend in the TR mainstream, the vegetation improvement areas are far greater than the degraded areas during the study period. Apparently, the overflow days in the TR mainstream and the cumulative amount of water transport are the two main factors that dominate the vegetation coverage. The ecological risk level varies throughout the TR with a high-to-low spatial distribution from upstream to downstream, and the overall landscape ecological risk of the whole basin exhibits an upward tendency. Above all, our study provides a framework with the remote sensing data to assess vegetation coverage and landscape ecological risk which can help design and implement reliable strategies for the ecological management and vegetation restoration in the Tarim River Basin.

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Risk Area Identification Model of Bus Bay Stops Based on Distribution of Conflicts

Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society ◽

10.1155/2021/9663966 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 2021 ◽

pp. 1-11

Author(s):

Weiwei Qi ◽

Lianjie Ruan ◽

Yue Zhi ◽

Bin Shen

Keyword(s):

Traffic Flow ◽

Traffic Safety ◽

Flow Characteristics ◽

Practical Significance ◽

Risk Level ◽

Risk Area ◽

Potential Conflict ◽

Bus Stop ◽

Risk Areas ◽

The Impact

Effective identification of the risk area of the bus bay stop is a prerequisite for the enhancement of traffic safety. This study proposes a method of identifying the risk area based on the distribution of traffic conflicts. Firstly, the traffic flow data of the bus stop is collected by drones and video recognition software, and the traffic flow characteristics of the bus stop are analyzed by the mathematical and statistical methods. Secondly, using the gray clustering evaluation theory, on the basis of the rasterization of the functional area of the bus bay stop, a risk level model based on the index system of conflict rate, conflict severity, and potential conflict risk is proposed. Finally, take a bus stop in Guangzhou as an example to verify the solution. The results show that the constructed model can effectively identify the risk areas of bus bay stops. The risk areas of the bus bay stops are concentrated in the middle and lower reaches of the bus stop, which proves that the impact of bus exiting the stop on the surrounding traffic is greater than the process of bus entering the stop; the traffic risk areas of lanes near the bus stop are concentrated, and the severity of conflicts is low. The traffic risk zone of the lane far away from the bus stop is widely distributed, and the severity of conflict is higher. The research results can provide a basis for the micro safety performance evaluation and safety optimization of bus bay stops, which has strong theoretical and practical significance.

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