scholarly journals Probability calibration of deformation factor for timber roofs in the Polish mountain zones

2018 ◽  
Vol 163 ◽  
pp. 07003
Author(s):  
Tomasz Domański ◽  
Kamil Kmiecik
Keyword(s):  
Limit State ◽  
High Stress ◽  
Life Time ◽  
Probabilistic Methods ◽  
Limit States ◽  
Term Limit ◽  
Load Duration ◽  
Maximum Likelihood Methods ◽  
Short And Long Term

The resistance parameters of timber material structures decrease with time, depending on the type of load and timber classes. Strength and Modulus of Elasticity reduction effects, referred to as creeprupture effects, due to long term loading at high stress ratio levels are known for many materials. Timber materials are highly affected by this reduction in strength and deflection with duration of load. Characteristic values of load duration and deformation factors are calibrated by means of using probabilistic methods. The reliability is estimated by means of using representative short-and long-term limit states. Time variant reliability aspects are taken into account using a simple representative limit state with time variant strength and simulation of whole life time load processes. The parameters in these models are fitted by the Maximum Likelihood Methods using the data relevant for Polish structural timber . Based on Polish snow data over 45 years from mountain zones in: Zakopane – Tatra, Świeradów – Karkonosze, Lesko – Bieszczady, the snow load process parameters have been estimated. The reliability is evaluated using representative short – and long –term limit states. The deformation factor kdef is obtained using the probabilistic model.

scholarly journals Probability Calibration Of Load Duration Modification Factor For Timber Roofs In The Polish Mountain Zones

2014 ◽  
Vol 60 (2) ◽  
pp. 195-208
Author(s):  
T. Domański
Keyword(s):  
Limit State ◽  
High Stress ◽  
Life Time ◽  
Probabilistic Methods ◽  
Limit States ◽  
Term Limit ◽  
Load Duration ◽  
Maximum Likelihood Methods ◽  
Short And Long Term

Abstract The resistance parameters of timber structures decrease with time. It depends on the type of load and timber classes. Strength reduction effects, referred to as creep-rupture effects, due to long term loading at high stress ratio levels are known for many materials. Timber materials are highly affected by this reduction in strength with duration of load. Characteristic values of load duration and load duration factors are calibrated by means of using probabilistic methods. Three damage accumulation models are considered, that is Gerhard [1] model, Barret, Foschi[2] and Foshi Yao [3] models. The reliability is estimated by means of using representative short- and long-term limit states. Time variant reliability aspects are taken into account using a simple representative limit state with time variant strength and simulation of whole life time load processes. The parameters in these models are fitted by the Maximum Likelihood Methods using the data relevant for Polish structural timber. Based on Polish snow data over 45 years from mountain zone in: Zakopane – Tatra, Świeradów – Karkonosze, Lesko – Bieszczady, the snow load process parameters have been estimated. The reliability is evaluated using representative short – and long –term limit states, load duration factor kmod is obtained using the probabilistic model.

Serviceability Limit State Evaluation in Discontinuity Regions

2019 ◽  
Vol 292 ◽  
pp. 203-209
Author(s):  
Michal Číhal ◽  
Jaromír Kabeláč ◽  
Michael Konečný ◽  
Lukáš Juříček
Keyword(s):  
Design Method ◽  
Limit State ◽  
Structural Members ◽  
Limit States ◽  
State Evaluation ◽  
Loading Effects ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Dapped Ends ◽  
The Impact

Discontinuity Region Design method was recently extended to allow assessment of serviceability limit states (SLS) for regions of concrete structural members where the Bernoulli-Navier hypothesis does not hold, such as dapped ends, openings, frame corners, etc. The method uses material models which consider the impact of short- and long-term loading effects (creep) as well as the influence of tension stiffening, which are calculated from reinforcement ratios. The method can be used to perform assessment of stress limitation SLS as well as to calculate crack widths. Crack width calculations for both stabilized and non-stabilized cracks have been compared with real-world experiments. Calculations regarding deflection and strain in concrete and concrete rebars are compared with analytical calculations.

Long-Term Fatigue and Extreme Design of Steel Risers

2009 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michele A. L. Martins ◽  
Andre´ S. Do´ria ◽  
Eduardo S. S. Silveira
Keyword(s):  
Limit State ◽  
Joint Probability ◽  
Offshore Structures ◽  
Joint Probability Distribution ◽  
Full Time ◽  
Extreme Statistics ◽  
Limit States ◽  
Sea State ◽  
Zero Crossing

Environmental loads are the main source of dynamic excitation of offshore structures. Due to the random nature of these loads, one should consider statistical properties when designing such structures. Recent codes for the design of steel risers address the use of environmental contours or full long-term analysis to take into account the statistics of load effects. Moreover, sea states for fatigue design should also be carefully selected so as to include the region of the scatter diagram which most contributes to the total damage. This paper looks into fatigue and ultimate limit states of steel risers. The first part shows a comparative study of three design criteria for extreme statistical analysis. These criteria are based on design storm, environmental contour, and full long-term statistics. A joint probability distribution found in the literature for a Brazilian location was used to describe the correlation between the significant wave height and the zero crossing wave period. The second part deals with the analysis of the coefficient of contribution for fatigue and long-term extreme statistics. Several full time domain analyses were performed and the most important sea state region for each limit state is shown in two examples of steel catenary risers. A discussion about sea state selection is then presented.

Estimation of Probability of Fatigue Failure on Tubular Joints

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Lokesh ◽  
S. Nallayarasu ◽  
S. Karunanithi
Keyword(s):  
Fatigue Life ◽  
Failure Mode ◽  
Fatigue Failure ◽  
Limit State ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Fatigue Crack Initiation ◽  
High Stress ◽  
State Function ◽  
Reliability Method

Abstract Fatigue is generally considered the most critical failure mode in mechanical and structural systems. Due to high-stress concentrations, welded joints represent the most common fatigue crack initiation in steel structures susceptible to fatigue. In India, especially in western offshore, there are about 300 platforms, and 50% of them have reached their design life but still operating due to existing oil and gas reserves. Fatigue prediction in offshore structures is an extremely complicated process involving many factors such as complicated geometry, material, loading, and environment. These uncertainties are modelled as random variables. The assessment of failure probabilities takes a basis to formulate a limit state function for the relevant failure mode and deterioration mechanisms. The fatigue failure assessment based on a simplified probabilistic approach using the application of reliability-based procedures such as the First Order Reliability Method (FORM) is a useful tool. In the simplified fatigue assessment method, the two-parameter Weibull distribution is used to model the long-term distribution of fatigue stresses. Reliability of tubular joint using known fatigue life is an important factor in decision making for life extension of aged platforms. The methodology adopted in this study uses the linear damage accumulation model of Palmgren-Miner, double slope S-N curve, and one-to-one transformation of the probability density functions of long-term stress range and uncertainties to obtain the probability of fatigue failure as a function of the service life from known fatigue life.

Reliability-based assessment of flexural timber components with ultimate deflection performance

2020 ◽  
Vol 23 (16) ◽  
pp. 3469-3480
Author(s):  
Pan-Pan Tian ◽  
Hong-Xing Qiu ◽  
Zhou-Zhou Liang ◽  
Jian Sun
Keyword(s):  
Probabilistic Model ◽  
Reliability Index ◽  
Limit State ◽  
Main Beam ◽  
Live Load ◽  
Limit States ◽  
Live Loads ◽  
Deflection Criteria ◽  
State Functions

Assessing the deflection performance of existing flexural timber components is of paramount importance for making better, reliable, and substantiated decisions. The main purpose of this article is to propose four-level reliability index β and deflection criteria for updating existing flexural timber components (main beam, joist, purlin, and rafter) based on long-term deflection probabilistic model, limit state functions, and load combinations. The long-term deflection probabilistic model was obtained through creep deflection and short-term deflection model. Limit state functions were considered to be ultimate limit states of load-bearing capacity. In addition, four-level reliability index β were calculated by three live loads (residential live load, office live load, and snow live load) and seven load ratios ρ (0.2, 0.3, 0.5, 1.0, 2.0, 3.0, and 4.0). The results of proposed four-level criterion were illustrated with the reliable safety assessment for flexural timber components.

Repeatability of methane emission measurements in Australian beef cattle

2016 ◽  
Vol 56 (3) ◽  
pp. 213 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. A. Donoghue ◽  
T. Bird-Gardiner ◽  
P. F. Arthur ◽  
R. M. Herd ◽  
R. S. Hegarty
Keyword(s):  
Methane Production ◽  
Life Time ◽  
Time Frame ◽  
Phenotypic Correlations ◽  
Methane Production Rate ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Time Periods ◽  
Time Frames ◽  
Methane Measurement

Records on 175 young Angus heifer and bull progeny from 46 sires, measured for methane production in respiration chambers, were used to evaluate the repeatability of methane measurement over short- and long-term periods. The traits assessed were dry matter intake (DMI), methane production rate (MPR), methane yield (MPR per unit DMI), and four residual methane (RMP) traits. The RMP traits were computed as actual MPR minus expected MPR, where the expected MPR for the first three RMP traits were calculated from three different published and widely used equations. The expected MPR for the fourth was computed by regressing MPR on DMI, using the data from the study. Animals underwent an initial (first) methane measurement test for 48 h, and one repeat methane measurement test up to 450 days after the first test. Repeat tests were classified into four different time periods: tested across consecutive days; re-tested within 60 days of first test; re-tested 61–120 days after first test; and re-tested 121–450 days after first test. Repeatabilities were calculated for all traits across all time periods, and phenotypic correlations for the same trait measured over time were obtained from bivariate analyses. Methane traits from tests conducted over consecutive days were highly repeatable (0.75–0.94) and highly phenotypically correlated (0.85–0.95). Repeatabilities from tests conducted within 60 days of the first test were moderate to high (0.59–0.91), whereas phenotypic correlations were, in general, moderate (0.30–0.44), with the exception of MPR (0.78). Results for both longer-term time periods (61–120 days and 121–450 days after the first test) were very similar, with low estimates of repeatabilities (0.16–0.27) and phenotypic correlations (0.12–0.27). Correlations between sire progeny means from the first and repeat methane test were moderate (0.46–0.77) for all traits except RMPR (0.19). Results from this study indicate that methane traits from tests conducted either on consecutive days or within a short-term time frame afterward (~60 days) are highly repeatable and highly phenotypically correlated. However, methane tests conducted over longer-term time frames are substantially, but consistently, less repeatable and are lowly phenotypically correlated, which indicates that multiple measures may be required to accurately record methane traits over the life time of an animal.

scholarly journals Analyzing the Long-Term Service Life of MEP Using the Probabilistic Approach in Residential Buildings

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. 3803 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sanghyo Lee ◽  
Yonghan Ahn
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Service Life ◽  
Residential Buildings ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Life Time ◽  
Probabilistic Methods ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Maintenance Plan ◽  
Term Maintenance

Establishing an effective long-term maintenance plan is essential to ensure the sustainability of a building. Among the various components of a building, the mechanical, electrical, and plumbing (MEP) components are complexly affected by various parameters, such as quality and user pattern, with respect to the service life. Besides, these components are replaced at different points in time, which becomes one of the main risks when establishing a maintenance plan for the building. Therefore, it is very important to consider the uncertainty in calculating the service lives of MEP components in a systematic and reasonable way. This study aims to systemize the MEP components of residential buildings and analyze their service life patterns using a probabilistic approach for long-term maintenance planning. The analysis was performed on 54,318 maintenance cases from 1998 to 2017 at 65 twenty-five-year-old rental apartment buildings in South Korea. Before performing the analysis, a service life matrix was established by classifying the MEP components into 12 types and setting the service life time at 6–25 years. Then, the service life distribution was derived for each MEP component. The probabilistic approach can provide information for rational maintenance decision-making regarding each MEP component as well as basic service life settings. Since the performance of the MEP components deteriorates due to various reasons, de facto uncertainty exists in the service life of each component; thus, the probabilistic approach can serve as an important decision-making method. If probabilistic methods are developed by acquiring the cost data in addition to the frequency of maintenance activity used in this study, a more effective long-term maintenance plan can be established.

scholarly journals The Design of a Semi-Prefabricated LVL-Concrete Composite Floor

2012 ◽  
Vol 2012 ◽  
pp. 1-19 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Yeoh ◽  
Massimo Fragiacomo
Keyword(s):  
Concrete Slab ◽  
Design Procedure ◽  
Limit States ◽  
Building Site ◽  
Composite Action ◽  
Worked Example ◽  
Rapid Construction ◽  
Continuous Slab ◽  
Short And Long Term

This paper describes the design of a novel semi-prefabricated LVL-concrete composite floor that has been developed in New Zealand. In this solution, the floor units made from LVL joists and plywood are prefabricated in the factory and transported to the building site. The units are then lifted onto the supports and connected to the main frames of the building and to the adjacent units. Finally, a concrete topping is poured on top of the units in order to form a continuous slab connecting all the units. Rectangular notches cut from the LVL joists and reinforced with coach screws provide the composite action between the concrete slab and the LVL joists. This system proved to be an effective modular solution that ensures rapid construction. A design procedure based on the use of the effective flexural stiffness method, also known as the “gamma method” is proposed for the design of the composite floor at ultimate and serviceability limit states, in the short and long term. By comparison with the experimental results, it is shown that the proposed method leads to conservative design. A step-by-step design worked example of this novel semi-prefabricated composite floor concludes the paper.

On the Seismic Fragility Assessment of Concrete Gravity Dams in Eastern Canada

2019 ◽  
Vol 35 (1) ◽  
pp. 211-231 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rocio Segura ◽  
Carl Bernier ◽  
Ricardo Monteiro ◽  
Patrick Paultre
Keyword(s):  
Ground Motion ◽  
Fragility Curves ◽  
Limit State ◽  
Selection Method ◽  
Probabilistic Methods ◽  
Fragility Analysis ◽  
Gravity Dams ◽  
Limit States ◽  
Eastern Canada

In recent years, probabilistic methods, such as fragility analysis, have emerged as reliable tools for the seismic assessment of dam-type structures. These methods require the selection of a representative suite of ground motion records, resulting in the need for a ground motion selection method that includes all the relevant ground motion parameters in the fragility analysis of this type of structure. This article presents the development of up-to-date fragility curves for the sliding limit states of gravity dams in Eastern Canada using a record selection method based on the generalized conditional intensity measure approach. These fragility functions are then combined with the recently developed regional hazard data to evaluate the annual risk, which is measured in terms of the unconditional probability of limit state exceedance. The proposed methodology is applied to a case study dam in northeastern Canada, whose fragility is assessed through comparison with previous studies and current safety guidelines. It is observed that the more accurate procedure proposed herein produces less conservative fragility estimates for the case study dam.

Old Suspended Timber Floors Flexurally-Strengthened with Different Structural Materials

2016 ◽  
Vol 713 ◽  
pp. 78-81 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hugo Biscaia ◽  
Noel Franco ◽  
Ricardo Nunes ◽  
Carlos Chastre
Keyword(s):  
Structural Materials ◽  
Efficient Solutions ◽  
Experimental Program ◽  
Limit States ◽  
Bending Tests ◽  
Promising Solution ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Nonlinear Numerical Model ◽  
Timber Beams

The design of timber beams has strict limits when it comes to the Serviceability Limit States (SLS) either in short-term or in long-term deflections. In order to face this aspect efficiently, the increase of the cross section of the beams might be considered as a solution. However, the prohibitive increase of the costs associated to this solution or the change of the initial architecture design of the building, opens the opportunity to find new and more efficient solutions. In that way, the use of additional reinforcements to the timber beams may be seen as a promising solution because either new or old structures would keep always their original aesthetical aspect with no significant self-weight increase and improving their behaviour to short and long-term actions. Therefore, the current study is dedicated to the analysis of composite timber beams where Fiber Reinforcement Polymers (FRP), steel or stainless steel are used to improve the stiffness, strength and deflection behaviour of old suspended timber floors. An experimental program was conducted where old suspended timber floors reinforced with CFRP strips were subjected to 4-point bending tests. A simplify nonlinear numerical model was developed to simulate the bending behaviour of the specimens and several other cases with other reinforcement configurations and different structural materials were assumed. The numerical analysis herein presented also takes into account both Ultimate and Serviceability Limit States of the reinforced specimens.

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