scholarly journals The impact of inflation on the unemployment rate in Egypt: a VAR approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 107 ◽  
pp. 06009
Author(s):  
Emad Attia Mohamed Omran ◽  
Yuriy Bilan
Keyword(s):  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
High Rate ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Political Effects ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Unemployment and inflation are among the most critical phenomena facing both developed and developing countries due to their harmful social, economic, and political effects. The Egyptian monetary policy’s main objective is to maintain a low inflation rate in the medium run to keep the confidence and a high rate of investment and economic growth. At the same time, economists argue that targeting a low-rate of inflation may increase unemployment. Although the classical Philips curve indicates a trade-off between inflation and unemployment, several empirical studies have argued that the relationship between inflation and unemployment depends on the shocks’ source and lagged responses. The main objective of this paper is to examine the relationship between inflation and Egypt’s unemployment rate. We used time-series data from 1980 to 2019, where a vector autoregressive (VAR) model and the Impulse response function tool (IRF) were employed. The results show that inflation has a positive relationship with GDP while negatively affecting the unemployment rate.

scholarly journals An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship Between Urbanization and Fiscal Policy --- Taking Jiangxi Province of China As an Example

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 140 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiao-Ying Wan
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Empirical Analysis ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Jiangxi Province ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Dynamic Correlation ◽  
Existing Problems ◽  
Fiscal Revenue ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Urbanization is still the direction of China's development in the next twenty years. The study of the relationship between fiscal policy and urbanization is of great value to the healthy promotion of urbanization. In this paper, through the establishment of vector autoregressive model, and analysis using the impulse response function and variance decomposition empirical dynamic correlation between the development of urbanization in Jiangxi province and that of fiscal policy, fiscal policy focus; at the same time, this thesis employs qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, normative analysis and empirical analysis, combined with the reality of the development of urbanization in Jiangxi Province in order to analyze of the relationship between the development of urbanization in Jiangxi province and fiscal policy and the existing problems. The study found that there is a cointegration relationship between fiscal policy and urbanization. The impact of fiscal expenditure on Urbanization in Jiangxi is better than that in fiscal revenue. Finally, this paper also puts forward relevant policy.

The Dynamics of Exports and Economic Growth: Assessing the Evidence from Nigeria

2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 15-22
Author(s):  
Clement A.U. Ighodaro ◽  
Ovenseri-Ogbomo F. O.
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Social Services ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Capital Expenditure ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

The paper empirically examines the dynamics of exports and economic growth in Nigeria using time series data for 1970 to 2017. The Vector autoregressive model (VAR) was used to investigate the long run and short run relationship between exports and economic growth as well as some selected variables. The result shows that there exists a stable long run relationship among economic growth, exports, capital expenditure on education and social services. Also, the Granger causality results reveal that export Granger causes economic growth and not the other way round. This means that an increase in economic growth may result from increase in export, but increase in economic growth does not necessarily lead to increase in exports. The Impulse Response Function (IRF) shows that a one standard innovation in exports will lead to permanent positive impact on economic growth in Nigeria. This therefore supports the exports led growth hypothesis for Nigeria.

scholarly journals Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Human Development Index in South Africa

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 58
Author(s):  
Marius KOUNOU
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Poverty Reduction ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact

Many studies have been done on the impact of Foreign Direct Investment on economic growth and poverty reduction in developing countries, however there is a lack of empirical studies of FDI impact on poverty reduction in South Africa which is the second largest FDI recipients of one of the poorest regions in the world (sub Saharan Africa). We used time series data from 1990 to 2017 with the ARDL method to evaluate the impact of FDI Inflow on HDI in the country. The results show that FDI inflow has no significant impact on HDI both in the short run and long run on the country. This result is consistent with findings reported in the literature.

scholarly journals The Influencing Factors on Unemployment Level - The Case of Albania

2017 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 103
Author(s):  
Eleni Vangjeli ◽  
Jorida Agolli
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Fast Food ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Mutual Effect ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Total Employment ◽  
Employment Level ◽  
Domestic Investments ◽  
The Impact

Research background: The empirical studies in labor market indicated that there are many factors that affect unemployment. These studies have analyzed these factors and concluded that exist a mutual relationship between them and unemployment. The relation between employment and FDI were studied by Craigwell (2006) and Karlsson et al. (2009). The effects of minimal wage on employment were studied by Katz and Kruger (1992) and Card (1992a) as well as Stephen Machin and Alan Manning (1994). Card, D. and Krueger, B. (1994) analyzed the effects of minimum wage raise, on fast-food restaurants in New Jersey and Pennsylvania. On the other hand, Neumark and Wascher (2000) in their findings explained that raising the minimal wage by 10% reduced the teenager employment rate with 1-2% and brought the reduction of total employment by 1.5-2%. Meanwhile, Grossberg and Sicilian (2004), found mixed results in their estimations of the minimal wage effects on employment duration period. Krugman, P(2015) one of the economy nobelist defends the theory of raising the minimal wage as a condition for improving the wellbeing. W. Phillips, (1958) studied a negative inverse relation between unemployment and inflation. Barro (1995), De Gregorio (1994), Bruno (1994) concluded that low inflation is accompanied by economic growth and higher employment level. Purpose of the article: The main aim of this article is to study and analyse factors affecting unemployment levels, because the unemployment is a critical problem in our country. We have analyzed the mutual effect of selected factors on unemployment level. The selected factors are FDI, domestic investments, inflation and minimal wage. Methodology/methods: To calculate the impact of this factors on the unemploymentlevel was used time series data for the period 1995 – 2013. Relying on time series data was made regression analysis using SPPS-21 program. Findings: Based on the testing results, we conclude that FDI, domestic investments and inflation affect negatively the unemployment level and this effect is statistically important, whereas the minimal wage has a low positive effect but such effect is not important.

scholarly journals THE EXCHANGE RATE REGIME AND INTERNATIONAL TRADE: EVIDENCE FROM GHANA

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Adubofour Isaac
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Trade ◽  
Electric Power ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Labour Force ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Inverse Association ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

The degree of fluctuation of a country’s currency in relation to other currencies is an important factor in determining her foreign trade position. The study employed both theoretical and empirical approaches to examine Ghana’s real exchange rate and the impact on her foreign trade. A time series data, spanning from 1991 to 2019 was analyzed in an attempt to establish the relationship between exchange rate and economic growth. It is argued in the study that exchange rate has impact on a country’s export volumes. A verification on the relationship between labour force and international trade was also conducted. The study was also extended to examining the impact of a country’s access to stable electric power on export volumes. Findings of the study revealed a statistically significant and inverse association existing between exchange rate and international trade. The study also found that, wide electricity coverage has statistically significant and direct effect on foreign trade, resulting from an increased production capacity due to the availability of electric power. The study however found no suggestive evidence to support the claim that, labour force has impact on her foreign trade. A test on granger causality found no causal linkage between the variables. KEYWORDS: Exchange rate, international trade, labour force, exports.

scholarly journals The Impact of Foreign Aid on Economic Growth in Palestine: An Empirical Evidence

2021 ◽  
pp. 99-114
Author(s):  
Nemer Badwan ◽  
Mohammed Atta
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Aid ◽  
Labour Force ◽  
High Rate ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Special Focus ◽  
Chow Test ◽  
Palestinian Economy ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

This study examines the Impact of Foreign Aid on Economic Growth in Palestine by considering time series data of the last twenty years from (2000-2019). Foreign Aid's Impact on the Palestinian Economy explored with the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as the dependent variable against few selected independent variables such as Foreign Aid, Remittance, Investment, Labour Force and Lagged (GDP). This study used the Partial Adjustment Model to analyze the Impact of Foreign Aid on Economic Growth in Palestine and also applied the (Chow Test) to examine whether there was a Structural Breakthrough in the Palestinian Economy. The results indicate that Foreign Aid has a positive relationship with (GDP). However, the relationship is not significant since the higher volume of Foreign Aid used in Humanitarian and Social Welfare rather than Production Activities in the real sectors. (Chow Test) shows that the relationship between Foreign Aid (GDP) has not witnessed a Structural Breakthrough in the Palestinian Economy over the past twenty years. In light of these empirical results, we suggest that Government Policy-Makers and Decision-Makers allocate this Foreign Aid to Productive Sectors and Human Capital formation (HC) activities with a special focus on capital expenditures to achieve a high rate of the country's Economic Growth and Development and to meet the periodic plan and Long-Term Development goals.

scholarly journals An Investigation of the Determinants of Savings and Investment in Nigeria

2015 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 1 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adelakun O. Johnson
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Positive Relationship ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Use Of Time ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

<p>This study examined the relationship between savings, investment and economic growth. A corollary of the work is the determination of which of the inputs of production contributes more to economic growth in Nigeria. The study makes use of time series data spanning twenty-nine years using error correction model. The result shows a positive relationship between savings, investment and economic growth in Nigeria. Of the determinants of savings considered in the study, inflation rate contributes negatively to saving, while interest rate positively affect saving. All these confirm economic theory. The striking feature of the study however is the confirmation of the impact of labour on economic growth, which according to the study far outweighs the contribution of capital.</p>

scholarly journals The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Economic Growth in Nigeria

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 90-97
Author(s):  
Sani Ali Ibrahim
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
National Income ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact

The economic development performance can be used to measure the economic growth of a given country. In economic analysis, a country can attain economic growth through the growth in national income measurement. However, there were rigorous discussions on the role of foreign direct investment (FDI) on economic growth and continued to be a topic of discussion on the contemporary economy. This paper serves as an extension to the previous empirical studies on the issue by providing some evidence from time series data for the period 1971 to 2013 of Nigeria. The primary aim of this study is to analyze the impact of FDI on economic growth of Nigeria taking trade openness, Gross Fixed Capital Formation and human capital as control variables. To investigate the long run equilibrium relationship, Johansen and Juselius co-integration approach is analyzed, while the speed of adjustment in the short run is analyzed through the use of VECM method. In Nigeria, FDI, GFCF and HK have long run relationship with economic growth. However, the coefficient of ECM in Nigeria is statistically significant at 1% level of significance. Thus, 10.8% of the adjustment is achieved due to the correction of the adjustment speed in a year.

scholarly journals The education investment dimension of international personal remittances in Colombia

2015 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 428-436
Author(s):  
Kunofiwa Tsaurai
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Series Data ◽  
International Remittances ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Enrolment Ratio ◽  
Capital Development ◽  
Integrated Or ◽  
The Relationship

The study investigated the relationship between personal international remittances received and gross enrolment ratio in Colombia. There are three hypotheses explaining the relationship between personal international remittances and education (human capital development). These are (1) remittances-led education hypothesis, (2) education-led remittances hypothesis and (3) neutrality hypothesis that says there is no relationship at all between these two variables. Although majority of the empirical studies support the remittances-led education hypothesis, the subject is still attracting contradicting findings and not yet conclusive. It is on the backdrop of such lack of consensus in the literature that the author investigated the relationship between personal remittances received and gross enrolment ratio primary and secondary (%) in Colombia. The study used the auto-regressive distributive lag (ARDL) bounds co-integration testing technique with annual time series data ranging between 1978 and 2010 to determine the existence of a long run relationship between personal remittances and education in Colombia. The ARDL F-bounds co-integration test revealed that personal remittances received and gross enrolment ratio for both primary and secondary schools in Colombia are not co-integrated or they do not have any long run relationship, thus supporting the neutrality hypothesis. This conclusion was arrived at using either personal remittances or gross enrolment ratio as a dependent variable. These results imply that personal remittances received in Colombia were directed more towards consumption and not invested in education. The study therefore urges the Colombian authorities to concientise the recipients of the personal remittances to invest in the children’s education rather than spending the remittances on consumption purposes

scholarly journals The Impact on Unemployment of Social Security Contributions: the Empiricial Analysis in Turkey

2017 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 142
Author(s):  
Filiz Giray ◽  
Mehmet Çınar
Keyword(s):  
Social Security ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Oecd Countries ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Social Security Contributions ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Bound Test

Social security contributions are important public incomes after taxes in OECD countries. Beside, social security contributions as a mean of the finance of social security system is a determiner on the main macroeconomic factors such as savings, employment, the cost of employment, the level of shadow economy, economic growth, competitiveness and income inequality. Employment has been important policy goals in Turkey like many OECD countries during recent decades. High unemployment rate is a serious problem for countries. Effecting negatively labor market, high burden of social security contributions causes low level of employment. The aim of this study is to find the relationship between social security contributions and unemployment for Turkey. Therefore, we can evaluate whether reducing social security contributions is a way reducing of unemployment or not. We use time series data during period 1965-2015. The research methodology is based on an analysis of indicators as unemployment rate, social security contributions as percentage of GDPs, the percentage of total tax revenues. Unit root test is non-stationary for social security contributions. On the other hand, unemployment is stationary for related period. The long run relationship between variables was tested by ARDL bound test approach. Based on the sample results, there is a long run cointegration between social security contributions and unemployment rate (both as percentage of GDP and percentage of taxation).

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