scholarly journals What can the annual 10Be solar activity reconstructions tell us about historic space weather?

2018 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
pp. A23 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luke Barnard ◽  
Ken G. McCracken ◽  
Mat J. Owens ◽  
Mike Lockwood
Keyword(s):  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Space Weather ◽  
Geomagnetic Storms ◽  
Solar Energetic Particle ◽  
Ground Level ◽  
Magnetic Activity ◽  
Cycle Phase ◽  
Large Space ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Solar Magnetic Activity

Context: Cosmogenic isotopes provide useful estimates of past solar magnetic activity, constraining past space climate with reasonable uncertainty. Much less is known about past space weather conditions. Recent advances in the analysis of 10Be by McCracken & Beer (2015, Sol Phys 290: 305–3069) (MB15) suggest that annually resolved 10Be can be significantly affected by solar energetic particle (SEP) fluxes. This poses a problem, and presents an opportunity, as the accurate quantification of past solar magnetic activity requires the SEP effects to be determined and isolated, whilst doing so might provide a valuable record of past SEP fluxes. Aims: We compare the MB15 reconstruction of the heliospheric magnetic field (HMF), with two independent estimates of the HMF derived from sunspot records and geomagnetic variability. We aim to quantify the differences between the HMF reconstructions, and speculate on the origin of these differences. We test whether the differences between the reconstructions appear to depend on known significant space weather events. Methods: We analyse the distributions of the differences between the HMF reconstructions. We consider how the differences vary as a function of solar cycle phase, and, using a Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, we compare the distributions under the two conditions of whether or not large space weather events were known to have occurred. Results: We find that the MB15 reconstructions are generally marginally smaller in magnitude than the sunspot and geomagnetic HMF reconstructions. This bias varies as a function of solar cycle phase, and is largest in the declining phase of the solar cycle. We find that MB15's excision of the years with very large ground level enhancement (GLE) improves the agreement of the 10Be HMF estimate with the sunspot and geomagnetic reconstructions. We find no statistical evidence that GLEs, in general, affect the MB15 reconstruction, but this analysis is limited by having too few samples. We do find evidence that the MB15 reconstructions appear statistically different in years with great geomagnetic storms.

scholarly journals Carrington Longitudinal and Solar Cycle Distribution of the Super Active Regions From 1976 to 2018

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
MIng-Xian Zhao ◽  
Guiming Le ◽  
Yonghua Liu ◽  
Tian Mao
Keyword(s):  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Space Weather ◽  
Geomagnetic Storms ◽  
Solar Maximum ◽  
Active Regions ◽  
Ground Level ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Flare Index ◽  
Statistical Results ◽  
Extreme Space Weather Events

Abstract We studied the Carrington longitudinal and solar cycle distribution of the super active regions (SARs) from 1976to 2018. There were 51 SARs during this period. We divided the SARs into SARs1 and SARs2. SARs1 refers tothe SARs that produced extreme space weather events including ≥X5.0 flares, ground level events (GLEs) andsuper geomagnetic storms (SGSs: Dst≤ −250 nT), while SARs2 did not produce extreme space weather events.The total number of SARs1 and SARs2 are 32 and 19, respectively. The statistical results show that 34.4%, 65.6%and 78.1% of the SARs1 appeared in the ascending phase, descending phase and in the period from two yearsbefore to the three years after the solar maximum, respectively, while 52.6%, 47.4% and 100% of the SARs2appeared in the ascending phase, descending phase and in the period from two years before to the three years aftersolar maximum, respectively. The Carrington longitude distribution of the SARs1 shows that SARs1 in thelongitudinal scope of [0,150°] produced ≥X5.0 flares and GLEs, while only the SARs1 in the longitude range of[150°,360°] not only produced ≥X5.0 flares and GLEs, but also produced SGSs. The total number of SARsduring a SC has a good correlation with the SC size. However, the largest flare index of a SAR within a SC has apoor correlation with the SC size, implying that the number of SARs in a weak SC will be small. However, aweak SC may have a SAR that can produce very strong solar flare activities.

scholarly journals From solar eruption to transformer saturation: the space weather chain

2013 ◽  
Vol 8 (S300) ◽  
pp. 500-501
Author(s):  
Larisa Trichtchenko
Keyword(s):  
Space Weather ◽  
Geomagnetic Field ◽  
Geomagnetic Storms ◽  
Interplanetary Medium ◽  
Practical Importance ◽  
Power Grids ◽  
Geomagnetically Induced Currents ◽  
Large Space ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Induced Currents

AbstractCoronal mass ejections (CME) and associated interplanetary-propagated solar wind disturbances are the established causes of the geomagnetic storms which, in turn, create the most hazardous impacts on power grids. These impacts are due to the large geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) associated with variations of geomagnetic field during storms, which, flowing through the transformer windings, cause extra magnetisation. That can lead to transformer saturation and, in extreme cases, can result in power blackouts. Thus, it is of practical importance to study the solar causes of the large space weather events. This paper presents the example of the space weather chain for the event of 5-6 November 2001 and a table providing complete overview of the largest solar events during solar cycle 23 with their subsequent effects on interplanetary medium and on the ground. This compact overview can be used as guidance for investigations of the solar causes and their predictions, which has a practical importance in everyday life.

scholarly journals Energetic Particle Precipitation during Extreme Space Weather Events

2020 ◽  
Vol 196 ◽  
pp. 01006
Author(s):  
Olesya Yakovchuk ◽  
Irina Mironova
Keyword(s):  
Space Weather ◽  
Energetic Particle ◽  
Geomagnetic Storms ◽  
Ozone Level ◽  
Particle Precipitation ◽  
Large Space ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Energetic Particle Precipitation ◽  
Selection Of ◽  
Extreme Space Weather Events

Here we provide a selection of extreme geomagnetic storms of the last century based on NOAA classification which lead to the energetic particle precipitation (EPP). EPP of such geomagnetic storms can cause power outages, communication failures, and navigation problems as well as impact on the environment and the ozone level. Studies of historical extreme geomagnetic storms together with EPP for large space weather events in the space era can help to reconstruct the parameters of extreme events of past centuries.

scholarly journals Prediction of Sunspot and Plage Coverage for Solar Cycle 25

2021 ◽  
Vol 922 (1) ◽  
pp. L12
Author(s):  
Valentina Penza ◽  
Francesco Berrilli ◽  
Luca Bertello ◽  
Matteo Cantoresi ◽  
Serena Criscuoli
Keyword(s):  
Solar Activity ◽  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Geomagnetic Storms ◽  
Empirical Relationship ◽  
Magnetic Activity ◽  
Solar Cycles ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Scales ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Cycle 24 ◽  
Odd Cycles

Abstract Solar variability occurs over a broad range of spatial and temporal scales, from the Sun’s brightening over its lifetime to the fluctuations commonly associated with magnetic activity over minutes to years. The latter activity includes most prominently the 11 yr sunspot solar cycle and its modulations. Space weather events, in the form of solar flares, solar energetic particles, coronal mass ejections, and geomagnetic storms, have long been known to approximately follow the solar cycle occurring more frequently at solar maximum than solar minimum. These events can significantly impact our advanced technologies and critical infrastructures, making the prediction for the strength of future solar cycles particularly important. Several methods have been proposed to predict the strength of the next solar cycle, cycle 25, with results that are generally not always consistent. Most of these methods are based on the international sunspot number time series, or other indicators of solar activity. We present here a new approach that uses more than 100 yr of measured fractional areas of the visible solar disk covered by sunspots and plages and an empirical relationship for each of these two indices of solar activity in even–odd cycles. We anticipate that cycle 25 will peak in 2024 and will last for about 12 yr, slightly longer than cycle 24. We also found that, in terms of sunspot and plage areas coverage, the amplitude of cycle 25 will be substantially similar or slightly higher than cycle 24.

scholarly journals Evaluation of possible corrosion enhancement due to telluric currents: case study of the Bolivia–Brazil pipeline

2020 ◽  
Vol 38 (4) ◽  
pp. 881-888
Author(s):  
Joyrles Fernandes de Moraes ◽  
Igo Paulino ◽  
Lívia R. Alves ◽  
Clezio Marcos Denardini
Keyword(s):  
Corrosion Rate ◽  
Space Weather ◽  
Geomagnetic Storms ◽  
Corrosion Process ◽  
Fluxgate Magnetometer ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Source Line ◽  
Geomagnetic Data ◽  
Telluric Currents

Abstract. The electric field induced in the Bolivia–Brazil gas pipeline (GASBOL) was calculated by using the distributed source line transmission (DSLT) theory during several space weather events. We used geomagnetic data collected by a fluxgate magnetometer located at São José dos Campos (23.2∘ S, 45.9∘ W). The total corrosion rate was calculated by using the Gummow (2002) methodology and was based on the assumption of a 1 cm hole in the coating of the pipeline. The calculations were performed at the ends of pipeline where the largest “out-of-phase” pipe-to-soil potential (PSP) variations were obtained. The variations in PSP during the 17 March 2015 geomagnetic storm have led to the greatest corrosion rate of the analyzed events. All the space weather events evaluated with high terminating impedance may have contributed to increases in the corrosion process. The applied technique can be used to evaluate the corrosion rate due to the high telluric activity associated with the geomagnetic storms at specific locations.

scholarly journals The Environment of the Young Earth in the Perspective of An Young Sun

2016 ◽  
Vol 12 (S328) ◽  
pp. 315-328
Author(s):  
Vladimir S. Airapetian
Keyword(s):  
Space Weather ◽  
Solar Flares ◽  
Geomagnetic Storms ◽  
Lower Atmosphere ◽  
Early Earth ◽  
Uv Emission ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Active Stars ◽  
Magnetohydrodynamic Models ◽  
The Impact

AbstractOur Sun, a magnetically mild star, exhibits space weather in the form of magnetically driven solar explosive events (SEE) including solar flares, coronal mass ejections and energetic particle events. We use Kepler data and reconstruction of X-ray and UV emission from young solar-like stars to recover the frequency and energy fluxes from extreme events from active stars including the young Sun. Extreme SEEs from a magnetically active young Sun could significantly perturb the young Earth's magnetosphere, cause strong geomagnetic storms, initiate escape and introduce chemical changes in its lower atmosphere. I present our recent simulations results based on multi-dimensional multi-fluid hydrodynamic and magnetohydrodynamic models of interactions of extreme CME and SEP events with magnetospheres and lower atmospheres of early Earth and exoplanets around active stars. We also discuss the implications of the impact of these effects on evolving habitability conditions of the early Earth and prebiotic chemistry introduced by space weather events at the early phase of evolution of our Sun.

scholarly journals The Highest Geomagnetic Storms of the Solar Cycle Observed at Ground Level

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlos E. Navia ◽  
Marcel N. de Oliveira ◽  
Carlos R. A. Augusto
Keyword(s):  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Geomagnetic Storms ◽  
Ground Level

The geoelectric structure of the Romanian underground and its contribution to the geoelectric hazard during the solar cycle 23

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Venera Dobrica ◽  
Dumitru Stanica ◽  
Crisan Demetrescu ◽  
Cristiana Stefan
Keyword(s):  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Geomagnetic Storms ◽  
Geomagnetic Disturbance ◽  
Geoelectric Field ◽  
Geomagnetically Induced Currents ◽  
Geomagnetic Variations ◽  
European Continent ◽  
Field Recordings ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Solar Cycle 23

<p>A recent model of the Romanian lithosphere electric properties, based on magnetotelluric transects carried out in the past 50 years across main tectonic units, is used to assess the geoelectric hazard represented by geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) for certain space weather events. Based on the geomagnetic field recordings and on information regarding the underground electric conductivity, the surface geoelectric field associated to geomagnetic variations during several large geomagnetic storms of the solar cycle 23 (1986-1996) is determined using the plane wave approximation for the depth propagation of the geomagnetic disturbance. A comparison to the territory of the European continent is done as well.   </p>

scholarly journals The future of helioseismology

2009 ◽  
Vol 5 (H15) ◽  
pp. 352-353
Author(s):  
Alexander G. Kosovichev
Keyword(s):  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Physical Properties ◽  
Active Regions ◽  
Magnetic Activity ◽  
Solar Dynamo ◽  
Current Status ◽  
The Sun ◽  
Interior Structure ◽  
Structure And Dynamics ◽  
Solar Magnetic Activity

AbstractHelioseismology has provided us with the unique knowledge of the interior structure and dynamics of the Sun, and the variations with the solar cycle. However, the basic mechanisms of solar magnetic activity, formation of sunspots and active regions are still unknown. Determining the physical properties of the solar dynamo, detecting emerging active regions and observing the subsurface dynamics of sunspots are among the most important and challenging problems. The current status and perspectives of helioseismology are briefly discussed.

scholarly journals Shock Wave Interactions with Viscosity Observed after the Coronal Mass Ejection Activities Occurred on December 18, 1999 and April 4, 2001

2018 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Huseyin Cavus ◽  
Aysel Ibrahim Karafistan
Keyword(s):  
Shock Waves ◽  
Geomagnetic Storms ◽  
Magnetic Activity ◽  
Wave Interactions ◽  
Major Objective ◽  
Subsonic Regime ◽  
Interaction Of Shock Waves ◽  
Shock Wave Interactions ◽  
Solar Magnetic Activity ◽  
Mass Ejection

The release of magnetic field and plasma from the solar atmosphere (i.e. coronal mass ejections-CMEs and solar wind) resulting from solar magnetic activity can produce shock waves and geomagnetic storms. Shock waves are known to occur while the solar ejected particles alter from the supersonic to the subsonic regime. Especially, in the supersonic case for the flow of compressible gas interaction of shock waves with viscosity plays a key role for space weather broadcasts. Therefore, the major objective of this paper was to search the outcome of viscosity in the shocks subsequently detected after the CMEs occurred on December 18, 1999 and April 4, 2001 by using the previous modelling study of [1].  

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