Meeting demand in a new era of east coast gas supply

2019 ◽  
Vol 59 (2) ◽  
pp. 686
Author(s):  
Will Pulsford
Keyword(s):  
East Coast ◽  
New Era ◽  
Demand Growth ◽  
Historical View ◽  
Operational Life ◽  
Gas Market ◽  
The Government ◽  
Gas Fields ◽  
Project Life ◽  
Gas Supply

Historically LNG projects have been established to monetise large gas finds in remote areas with little existing gas demand. The development of gas supply to the LNG project generally stimulated demand growth in the domestic gas market. As the supplying fields depleted, the LNG projects faced competition with domestic producers for declining gas supplies, but this was late in the project life when LNG plant capital had already been recovered. Recently, LNG export projects have been established within existing mature gas markets, most notably in Australia and North America. These plants now face competition with domestic gas consumers for access to feed gas from the beginning of their operational life when strong revenue has the greatest impact on the return earned on capital invested, with the greatest stress felt in Australia. This paper considers the underlying causes of domestic price rises experienced in Australia following the start-up of LNG export supplied from gas fields linked to the domestic market and the response by both plant developers/operators and the government. This historical view is used to inform forecasts of how the east coast gas market will react to the interplay between domestic and LNG plant demand, declining Bass Strait production, maturing CSG operations, LNG imports and completion of the Northern Gas Pipeline. In particular the ability of gas supply and pipeline capacity to meet the strongly seasonal domestic demand in Victoria and to a lesser extent NSW will be examined, together with the linkage to counter-cyclical seasonal demand for LNG from the Queensland LNG export plants in the key north Asian markets.

Evolution of the east coast gas market

2018 ◽  
Vol 58 (2) ◽  
pp. 513
Author(s):  
Philip Byrne
Keyword(s):  
East Coast ◽  
Regulatory Frameworks ◽  
The Us ◽  
Major Transition ◽  
Gas Market ◽  
Gas Fields ◽  
Eastern Seaboard ◽  
Gas Supply ◽  
Australian Industry

This extended abstract reviews how the east coast gas market is managing the major transition from being a ring-fenced domestic market to being part of an interconnected global trading market, and what still needs to be done to rebalance after half a decade of disruption. The east coast gas market has a great future ahead of it, but only if Australia acts quickly to open up access to new gas supply sources as existing gas fields mature and decline. The presence of a global liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply market on the east coast now provides an incentive for gas producers to invest in new provinces and new plays at a scale the domestic gas market could not have supported on its own. This can only be good for competition in the east coast gas market over the medium to long term, and potentially open up enormous supplies for the growth of Australian industry, akin to the US shale gas revolution. To make the most of the resources and infrastructure we now have on the eastern seaboard, there is a role for governments to play in ensuring access to resources and providing stable, coordinated, robust energy policy and regulatory frameworks that attract investment in further growth in the gas sector, the benefits of which will flow on to Australian industry more generally.

A reserves driven view of the eastern Australian gas supply and demand balance through the 2020's

2017 ◽  
Vol 57 (2) ◽  
pp. 526
Author(s):  
Will Pulsford
Keyword(s):  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
South Australia ◽  
Market Outcomes ◽  
Natural Gas Markets ◽  
Eastern Australia ◽  
Gas Market ◽  
Gas Fields ◽  
Key Participants ◽  
Gas Supply

The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) issued a Gas Statement of Opportunities in March 2016, which reports that gas supply to the domestic and liquefied natural gas markets in eastern Australia will be largely satisfied by proved and probable reserves until 2026 and by the addition of contingent resources until 2030. However, in parallel, there are widely reported concerns by energy consumers of insufficient gas supplies to meet demand by the early 2020s and a lack of new gas supplies to replace existing expiring contracts. Gas shortages have already contributed to black outs and load shedding events in South Australia. This paper reviews the eastern Australian gas supply position at a basin level. The AEMO basin level supply forecasts are reviewed and adjusted to generate forward profiles, which are consistent with reported reserves levels, production histories and depletion behaviour of typical gas fields. The revised supply forecast is compared with the AEMO’s demand profiles, and the likely commercial behaviour of key participants in the market is considered to build a picture of the domestic gas supply-demand balance through the 2020s. This analysis provides a transparent link from market outcomes back to the underlying reserves classifications to guide interpretation of supply-demand forecasts, and highlights the critical role of key suppliers in the eastern Australian gas market in the coming decade.

Australia's unconventional future: where next?

2019 ◽  
Vol 59 (2) ◽  
pp. 654
Author(s):  
Christopher Meredith
Keyword(s):  
East Coast ◽  
Gas Production ◽  
Eastern Coast ◽  
Market Demand ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Eastern Australia ◽  
Future Supply ◽  
Rapid Transition ◽  
Gas Market ◽  
Gas Supply

Eastern Australia is now reliant on coal-seam gas (CSG) for its domestic gas supply; in 2018, it accounted for two-thirds of total eastern coast gas production. Australia has seen a rapid transition from relying on ‘conventional’ resources to relying on ‘unconventional’ gas supply. As legacy conventional supply sources mature and decline, exploration has been insufficient to keep up with market demand. This has created the opportunity for Australia’s vast CSG resources to fill the gap. But the development of CSG has been neither easy nor straightforward. And the costly requirement to drill hundreds, if not thousands, of wells in every single development has driven up the cost of supply. Most CSG reserves will be produced for the Pacific Basin LNG market via the three LNG projects on the east coast of Queensland. However, it is the resources beyond these LNG projects that will need to be developed, so as to ensure future supply to the east coast gas market. It is these other resources, both CSG and shale, that we evaluated to gain a picture of future gas supplies and costs. Our indicative economics showed that alternative CSG resources and Beetaloo shale both have high well-head break-even costs. In addition, the infrastructure required to get them to market will be expensive. The high costs, coupled with the demand from the LNG plants of Gladstone leads us to conclude that eastern-coast gas prices are likely to remain closely linked to global LNG prices for the foreseeable future.

Price review mechanisms in a global market

2011 ◽  
Vol 51 (2) ◽  
pp. 678
Author(s):  
David Thomas ◽  
Chris Douglas
Keyword(s):  
Review Process ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Global Market ◽  
Commercial Arbitration ◽  
Price Review ◽  
Gas Market ◽  
Gas Fields ◽  
Substantial Change ◽  
Gas Supply

The east Australian gas market (including SA) has, throughout its history, been isolated with limited connectivity from the gas fields that supply its major centres. With the arrival of CSG, imminent LNG exports and recent increased connectivity between gas fields and customers, the east Australian gas market has undergone substantial change. Against this background, it is timely to reconsider the approach to price review mechanisms contained in long-term gas supply agreements—particularly what market will be considered in any review process and what evidence will be available to the parties to a price review (in a cost-effective way) to allow consideration of movements in that market for the purposes of re-setting the price to be paid by a customer. In this extended abstract, the author discuss the effects of CSG developments and increased connectivity on the eastern gas market along with the effect LNG can have, particularly by reference to its impact on the WA gas market. A critical analysis of various price review mechanisms is undertaken with a view to identifying appropriate price review processes and criteria for the future along with reviewing the fundamentals of a price review process—specifically, the need for any price review and associated arbitration to give rise to a justiciable dispute such that the process attracts the operation of the relevant Commercial Arbitration Act and overriding Court supervision for the purposes of any necessary subpoenas or reviews of decisions.

LNG demand: do we have enough gas? Our gas prices? Our gas future? Somebody help!

2015 ◽  
Vol 55 (2) ◽  
pp. 494 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olumide Adisa
Keyword(s):  
East Coast ◽  
Comprehensive Analysis ◽  
Market Forces ◽  
Financial Constraint ◽  
Demand Forecast ◽  
Market Models ◽  
Term Contract ◽  
Gas Market ◽  
Gas Supply

These are interesting times for the eastern Australian gas market with Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) projects coming online. The previously steady and long-term contract market for domestic gas supply on the east coast will be subject to market forces that are in part determined on the global stage. How will the market respond to these changes? The answer requires a comprehensive analysis of several scenarios and sensitivities around market models, as well as sophisticated modelling to capture these possibilities. This requires a tool that allows detailed modelling of the physical delivery of gas from producing fields, through pipelines and storages (including linepack) to demand points, with the capability to model any physical/financial constraint along the supply chain. The future lies in these scenarios and sensitivities. Employing a model developed through PLEXOS® gas module, this extended abstract analyses the effect of LNG on the domestic gas prices and supply in the short-to-medium and long-term. To establish any potential risk of gas shortage or particularly high prices, an analysis of the market was carried out from 2014-2023. Running several sensitivities on the demand forecast in this period, LNG effects on the market operations are examined.

scholarly journals Gas markets – a bridge too far?

2019 ◽  
Vol 59 (2) ◽  
pp. 520
Author(s):  
Graeme Bethune ◽  
Rick Wilkinson
Keyword(s):  
East Coast ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Market Potential ◽  
Energy Market ◽  
Supply Contracts ◽  
Sourcing Strategies ◽  
New Energy ◽  
Gas Markets ◽  
Gas Market ◽  
Gas Supply

The energy market is becoming more globalised and renewables are changing the supply and demand balance. Gas has been suggested as the bridging fuel to the new energy world – but is it a bridge too far? This presentation examines the global gas context and its impact on the Australian east coast gas markets, trends in energy supply options and sign posts for new directions. When the first liquefied natural gas (LNG) train started on Curtis Island, the gas producers had access to more than just the domestic market. The new overseas markets are also interconnected, so the Henry Hub, Brent oil and Chinese gas demand all have an influence on Australia’s east coast gas market. Potential LNG import terminals and net back pricing are changing the domestic gas market. The energy market is moving to renewables. This is not just an anomaly that will correct itself, but is based on lower renewable costs and distribution challenges. Moving relatively small amounts of energy long distances is a major challenge for Australia. Infrastructure, market hubs and sourcing strategies need to compensate for these challenges, and investment is needed to keep pace with the changes. Capital is a global commodity seeking the optimum return for the risk, but unconventionals, such as coal seam gas, are capital hungry. Government policies and support can be the key determinant for not only new investment but sustaining investment to meet existing gas supply contracts. Smart gas buyers will need to be agile and use deeper portfolio approaches for gas supply.

Evaluating the sources and impact of new east coast gas supply

2020 ◽  
Vol 60 (2) ◽  
pp. 464
Author(s):  
Daniel C. Levy
Keyword(s):  
East Coast ◽  
Average Duration ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Viable Option ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Technical Evaluation ◽  
Gas Market ◽  
Well Level ◽  
Gas Supply

Rystad Energy has conducted a well level supply side study for the Australian east coast gas market, quantifying the widely expected supply shortfall and its timing. This paper presents these findings, along with an economic and technical evaluation of new sources of supply relief and their potential impacts on the market balance. The study suggests the east coast has adequate gas supply to meet demand until 2024, with an average excess of 73 billion cubic feet (Bcf) per annum over this period. However, in 2025 the market will shift to under-supply, starting at 93 Bcf in 2025 and increasing to over half a trillion cubic feet by 2030. Sufficient supply in the short term does not warrant complacency. With the average duration between discovery and first gas for the region being 7.1 years since 1990, even if new (traditional) supply is discovered in 2020, the market will still be undersupplied for at least 3 years. We have identified the four most likely sources of supply relief for the market, each with their own merits, difficulties and development timelines. These new sources include the Beetaloo Sub-basin shales of the Northern Territory, undeveloped coal seam gas acreage, electrifying liquefied natural gas (LNG) export facilities to preserve in-field usage, and finally, LNG importation. A combination of at least two of these sources is required to balance the east coast gas market to 2030. Of the options, LNG importation is the most viable to stave off undersupply in the medium term (3 to 7 years). While Beetaloo Sub-basin shale gas appears the most viable option for secure, long-term supply relief.

scholarly journals Exploration of the Way out for Education Reform Based on the Status Quo of Chinese and Foreign Education Systems

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 37
Author(s):  
Yifan Wang
Keyword(s):  
Education Reform ◽  
Education System ◽  
Status Quo ◽  
New Era ◽  
The Status ◽  
Practical Reality ◽  
The Government ◽  
Foreign Education ◽  
Education In China ◽  
The Way

 Against the backdrop of growing national strength and rapid economic development, the government has placed more emphasis on education. In recent years, remarkable achievements have been registered in terms of education in China, which lays a solid foundation for cultivating comprehensive professionally-trained personnel in the new era. However, the current education system is ridden with many setbacks and problems. This paper conducts an analysis of the specific conditions of education both at home and abroad, status quo of education in China, makes some reflections on the direction and measures of China's education reform based on the practical reality of education in China. Measures should be taken to inject personalities into the traditional, exam-oriented education system, which keeps pace with the new era. As is known to all, it's important to strike a balance between public education and non-government funded education in a scientific and reasonable manner. The overhauling of traditional education policies will pave the way for China's educational renaissance and realize the great blueprint of the Chinese dream. 

scholarly journals MANAGEMENT AUTHORITY OF OIL AND GAS RESOURCES IN ACEH TERRITORY AFTER SIGNING THE GOVERNMENT REGULATION NUMBER 23 YEAR 2015

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (Number 2) ◽  
pp. 59-69
Author(s):  
Azhari Yahya ◽  
Nurdin MH
Keyword(s):  
Government Regulation ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Oil And Gas Industry ◽  
Gas Industry ◽  
Oil And Gas Fields ◽  
Oil And Gas Resources ◽  
Free Aceh Movement ◽  
The Government ◽  
Gas Fields ◽  
Energy Law

The oil and gas industry in Indonesia has been started since 1871 by Royal Dutch Shell. Meanwhile, the oil and gas industry in Aceh began in 1971 which was marked by the discovery of the Arun oil and gas fields. At that time, the management of oil and gas is done centrally by not involving the Government of Aceh as a regional producer. This led to armed conflict between the Government of Indonesia and the Free Aceh Movement and prolonged conflict (for 32 years) ended with the approval of the joint oil and gas management pattern found in the territory of Aceh as stipulated in the MoU Helsinki on August 15 2005, Law No. 11 of 2006 concerning the Government of Aceh and Government Regulation No. 23 of 2015 concerning Joint Management of Oil and Gas in Aceh. In order to finalize joint oil and gas management in Aceh, universities, especially the Faculty of Law, need to immediately prepare human resources who are competent in the oil and gas and energy law so that they are skilled at negotiating and drafting a Production Sharing Contracts (PSC) for oil and gas or Kontrak Bagi Hasil (KBH). For this purpose, law faculties need to immediately incorporate oil and gas and energy law courses into their curriculum.

scholarly journals An analysis of the circumstances and factors that have influenced the development of Animation Industry in Iran in the 1960-2002 periods

2015 ◽  
Vol 16 (SE) ◽  
pp. 61-77
Author(s):  
Naser Golmohammadi
Keyword(s):  
Cultural Policy ◽  
Animation Industry ◽  
Historical View ◽  
Feature Films ◽  
Art Form ◽  
Iranian History ◽  
The Government ◽  
Printed Materials ◽  
The One ◽  
The Impact

In the early part of 20th century animation emerged as a revolutionary way of making art. It evolved into a powerful means of expression and creativity of artists who could merge all art genres into one art form. The subsequent developments of animation have opened its diverse uses in entertainment business, education and political propaganda. This article attempts to examine the factors that have influenced and shaped the development of animation industry in Iran. It takes a historical view and investigates the impacts of changing socio-economic and political forces that have determined the functions of animation in the Iranian society. The study traces the establishment of the industry to the government-run centres, describing the pioneering role of artists who gave rise to the ‘golden age’ of animation in the pre-revolutionary Iran. Especial attention is throughout paid to the long and rich cultural and artistic heritages, as the thematic basis for indigenously produced animated films in Iran. The growth of the industry is considered in conjuncture with the expansion of feature films cinema and expansion of television networks. The latter is particularly important for the fact that it provides a secured market for a sizeable audience of children and young people in Iran. The study analyses the impact of the 1979 Islamic Revolution on the animation industry from a period of stagnation to a highly promoted and government sponsored artistic and industrial activity. In the post-revolutionary period, the industry was transformed from one reflecting the Iranian history and culture to the one that emphasises the Islamic-Iranian values and Islamic traditions; hence animation has become an ideological means in propagating the cultural policy of the state. Thus, animation has increasingly become a cultural industry assigned to supply growing needs of television and artistic works reserved for international festivals.This research is largely based on extensive interviews with animation artists and those who are working in the industry complemented with a sample of questionnaires addressed to both Iranian artists and foreign observers and participants in the Iranian International festivals on animation. The research methodology is also supplemented with the research on printed materials – very few and often descriptive- and personal experience of working over twenty years in the industry.

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